🚨Bitcoin Think Tank: VERY BULLISH Supply Crunch Scenario Backed by Glassnode Data!🚀🐂
Bitcoin's hard cap is 21M forever... but on-chain reality makes it far scarcer.
· Patoshi-era coins (~1.1M, often linked to Satoshi) + permanently lost coins (Glassnode & Chainalysis estimates ~3-4M+ from forgotten keys, dead wallets, etc.) = effectively REMOVED from circulation.
· Circulating supply ~19.95M BTC today, but Glassnode's Illiquid Supply metrics show massive HODLing: illiquid holdings frequently hit 14M+ BTC (e.g., ~72% of circulating in mid-2025 reports), with long-term holder supply at multi-year highs and ancient supply (5+ years dormant) growing faster than new issuance.
· Factor in institutional/ETF/corporate stacks (e.g., MicroStrategy, spot ETFs vacuuming supply) + revived dormant coins staying put → actual tradable/floating supply compresses toward ~15-16M or lower in extreme HODL scenarios.
Glassnode Insights & Studio charts (e.g., Liquid/Illiquid Supply, HODL Waves, Lost Supply proxies via dormant UTXOs) highlight this tightening: illiquid supply changes often outpace issuance 2x+, with net vaulting by HODLers reducing float even as price rallies.Result?
Classic supply shock → explosive upside potential as demand (ETFs, sovereigns, institutions) collides with shrinking availability. The market may be waking up to true scarcity!
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What’s your take — is effective supply already sub-16M driving the next mega-leg?👇 Share charts/thoughts!
Sources:
· Glassnode Studio: supply.LiquidIlliquidSum, Illiquid Supply Change, HODL Waves
· Insights reports (e.g., "The Week Onchain" series on supply in loss, illiquid trends)
· Cross-referenced with Chainalysis/Ledger lost coin estimates (~3-4M range as of 2025)
#Bitcoin❗ #BTC #SupplyShockBTC #GlassnodeData #HODL $BTC trade here 🙂 for Spot