$BTC Current Snapshot & Drivers
Bitcoin has slipped below $90,000 recently, wiping out much of its 2025 gains.
Rising investor caution amid macro uncertainty, especially around U.S. interest rate outlooks.
Some institutional and listed crypto companies are pulling back, increasing market contagion risk.
Outlook & Scenarios
Bearish Scenario: If $BTC breaks below $88,000-
$89,000 support with strong conviction, it could test lower leveis (some analysts point to $75K as a possible next major floor).
Base & Rebound Scenario: If on-chain accumulation
continues and macro liquidity improves (e.g., via Fed cuts or fiscal easing), $BTC could stabilize around $90K-$95K and aim to retake $100K.
Long-Term Bull Case: Longer-term models (quantile
regression, institutional adoption) still suggest potential for significantly higher targets if the macro regime turns favorable.
Risks to Watch
Interest rates: Any hawkish surprise from the Fed could continue to weigh.
Regulatory risk: Delays or negative changes in crypto regulation could spook institutions.
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