Raymond James Chief Economist Eugenio J. Alemán outlines a cautiously optimistic yet complex outlook for the U.S. economy in 2026, forecasting moderate growth amid lingering policy and inflationary pressures.
Major Points Highlighted:
GDP Growth Forecast: 2.2% growth expected for 2026, supported by fiscal stimulus and continued AI investment.
Inflation Outlook: Disinflation expected to continue, but inflation remains “sticky” and above the Fed’s target, partly due to tariff effects.
Federal Reserve Policy: With solid growth, the Fed has little room to cut rates—likely only once in 2026.
Labor Market Unease: Employment gains will be muted as employers navigate AI adoption; immigration policies will constrain workforce availability in key sectors.
Key Growth Drivers:
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) provides front-loaded fiscal stimulus.
AI-driven data center investment remains strong, offsetting earlier tariff uncertainty.
Major Risks:
Slowdown in AI investment.
Erosion of Federal Reserve independence.
Geopolitical or financial shocks.
Housing & Consumption: Modest improvement in residential investment expected, but durable goods and discretionary spending face headwinds.
Bottom Line:
2026 is set for steady, AI-fueled growth tempered by inflation, limited Fed easing, and workforce challenges—manageable known risks, but unknowns could shift the trajectory.
