For months, market participants assumed that the conclusion of Ripple’s prolonged legal dispute with US regulators would clear the path for an uninterrupted rally in XRP.

That optimism has yet to materialise. The token has struggled to maintain momentum above the $2 level, and despite more than $1.4 billion entering spot XRP ETFs, price action remains capped by persistent resistance. Instead of accelerating higher, XRP appears locked in a narrow and fragile range.

XRP Price Outlook Heading Into the New Year

As the year begins, XRP’s short-term trajectory hinges on a critical support band around $2.80. This zone has become a decisive battleground for buyers. Holding above it could allow the price to push toward the $2.20 region in relatively short order.

Failure, however, would likely trigger aggressive downside pressure. Several analysts warn that a breakdown below $1.80 could open the door to deeper losses, with $1.60-or lower-emerging as realistic downside targets.

This uncertainty persists even after Ripple officially settled its case with the SEC in early May and US-based spot XRP ETFs launched later in the year. These milestones were widely viewed as the final catalysts for a sustained bull phase. Instead, XRP briefly peaked near $3.66 before surrendering roughly half of those gains within weeks.

By October, the token had slid to $1.58 and ultimately stabilised around $1.85 into year-end, reflecting fading momentum rather than renewed confidence.

Whale Accumulation Versus Weak Network Activity

On-chain data presents a divided picture. Large holders appear increasingly confident. According to Santiment, wallets holding over one billion XRP added approximately $3.6 billion worth of tokens in a single day—one of the most notable accumulation events this cycle.

This behaviour suggests that institutional-scale investors and long-term players are positioning ahead of a potential structural move, largely ignoring short-term volatility.

Network usage, however, tells a less encouraging story. Daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger have dropped sharply, falling more than 90% from their peak levels. From over 600,000 active users in March, activity declined to roughly 38,500 by December, raising questions about near-term demand and real-world usage growth.

Standard Chartered Maintains a Bullish Long-Term View

Despite the subdued price action, optimism remains among some major financial institutions. Standard Chartered has reiterated its projection that XRP could reach $8 before year-end, implying a potential upside of more than 300% from current levels.

The bank attributes this outlook to improving regulatory clarity in the US and increasing traction for spot XRP ETFs, which could gradually translate into sustained institutional inflows.

Technical Indicators Remain Divided

From a technical standpoint, signals remain mixed. XRP’s Relative Strength Index currently hovers near 48, placing the asset firmly in neutral territory and leaving room for a decisive move in either direction.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt has cautioned that a developing double-top formation could indicate a broader trend reversal. If confirmed, this pattern historically precedes prolonged declines. Some analysts have gone as far as suggesting that a loss of key support could drag XRP below $1 under extreme conditions.

For now, XRP sits at a crossroads-caught between long-term conviction from large holders and weakening short-term fundamentals that continue to weigh on price.

Disclaimer: BFM Times provides informational content for educational purposes only and does not offer financial advice. Readers should consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.