👉 95.6% No Fed Cut — So Why Isn’t Crypto Breaking?
Everyone thought crypto would drop hard. Rate cuts are off the table and liquidity is not coming soon. By logic, this should hurt the market. But
$BTC is still holding.
That is the real question.
FedWatch shows a 95.6% chance of no rate cut and only 4.4% chance of a cut. One month ago, the market was still hoping for easing. That hope is gone now. This is not confusion. The macro picture is clear and not supportive.
Still, price is not breaking.
Recent macro reports also pointed this out. Even with bad Fed odds, crypto is staying stable. The odds chart now fully backs that view. Bad news is known, but the market is not reacting with panic.
For me, the reason is simple. Leverage is already washed out. The market already punished people who were overconfident on Fed cuts, late longs, and high leverage traders. What is left now is calmer money, not emotional money.
You can see it in the sessions. Big moves mostly happen in the US session. Asia and Europe mostly move sideways or slow grind. A lot of traders there used heavy leverage before. After multiple liquidations, they are now more careful, trading smaller, or chasing new volatile alpha tokens instead of BTC. They want fast moves, not patience.
US traders are different. More spot buying, more focus on sentiment and flows, less leverage. That is why direction now usually starts there.
✅ My take is clear. This is not a bullish macro setup. But it is also not a weak market. Crypto is holding because the weak money is already gone. For a real drop from here, the market needs a new shock.
Until then, this is a smart-money market. Slow, controlled, and not easy. Patience matters more than predictions here.
$ETH $XRP #CPIWatch #PowellRemarks #MarketRebound