MicroStrategy (derzeit Strategy) durchläuft den wichtigsten Meilenstein seit der Einführung von Bitcoin als zentrales Element ihres Vermögensbestands. Die Premie von mNAV (microstrategische Nettovermögenswert) ist auf 1,04x gesunken, praktisch die Bewertungspuffer aufgezehrt, die der Firma zuvor eine Überlegenheit gegenüber Bitcoin ermöglichte.
Diese Änderung markiert den Beginn einer neuen Ära. Die Zukunft von MicroStrategy hängt nicht mehr hauptsächlich vom Kurs von Bitcoin ab, sondern davon, ob Kapitalmärkte weiterhin bereit sind, die immer komplexere, auf Bitcoin basierende Finanzstruktur zu finanzieren.
Strategy's mNAV premium drops to 1.04x as the $17.4 billion loss in Q4 undermines the BTC leverage model
In 2023 and 2024, Strategy shares traded at premiums exceeding 2x, and occasionally reaching 2.5x, relative to their net asset value (NAV).
This premium enabled the company to issue shares, convertible bonds, and preferred shares under favorable terms. The raised capital was invested in additional Bitcoin purchases, strengthening shareholder exposure. Now that the premium is close to zero, this mechanism has stopped.
Currently, Strategy holds approximately 673,783 BTC. At the time of the latest report, their value exceeded $63 billion, and cash reserves amounted to around $2.25 billion. However, market capitalization indicators look like this:
Base – $47 billion
Adjusted for dilution – $53 billion
Enterprise value – $61 billion
Meanwhile, this divergence between Bitcoin's value and market capitalization is sparking debate. The question is whether shares are undervalued or whether the market is finally accounting for the structural risks of the model. Some investors see the current situation as an opportunity.
Given the above, Adam Livingston described an mNAV level of 1.04x as the 'best entry point' he has seen. He argues that even a small, 3% premium provides approximately 26% leveraged exposure to Bitcoin.
In his view, Strategy's upcoming issuance of preferred shares STRC could soon finance another major Bitcoin purchase. This would allow Michael Saylor, Chairman of the Board, to increase the number of BTC per share without requiring extreme premiums.
This optimism stems from a fundamental redefinition of Strategy's operations. Instead of being a growth-oriented company tied to Bitcoin's momentum, Strategy is increasingly becoming a Bitcoin accumulator focused on generating income.
Additionally, STRC Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock currently offers an annual dividend of 11%. The next payment is expected to be approximately $0.91 per share later this month.
Supporters argue that this approach transforms the company into a kind of Bitcoin-backed debt instrument. Joe Burnett, Director of Bitcoin Strategy at Semler Scientific, contends that even if BTC's price does not rise, Strategy could pay digital dividends for decades. In his post, Burnett emphasizes the long-term depreciation of fiduciary currencies.
In this context, duration matters more than short-term price movements.
Accounting losses reveal the fragility of the company's model after the premium period
The shift toward income generation comes at a time when Strategy's financial reports reveal increasing pressure. In the company's Form 8-K filed on January 5, 2026, an unrealized loss of $17.44 billion from digital assets in Q4 2025 and $5.40 billion for the full year were disclosed.
Although these losses are accounting-based and result from Bitcoin's decline in Q4, they have real impact. It should be noted that current accounting rules treat digital assets as intangible assets with an unlimited useful life.
The necessity of recording write-downs during declines means there is no upward correction capability during recovery periods. In this context, critics argue that this perception has gained importance since the premium disappeared.
Analyst Novacula Occami pointed to the persistently weak share performance. He believes Strategy's stock has underperformed Bitcoin over the past month, six months, and one year. Thus, the company contradicts the notion that MSTR should outperform BTC exposure.
According to him, the collapse of the mNAV premium since mid-2025 has undermined Strategy's ability to issue 'cheap' convertible bonds and 'expensive' preferred shares. This leaves common shareholders exposed to dilution without any chance of higher returns.
However, others warn that further share issuance without a significant premium reduces value for shareholders. Among them is Brennan Smithson, who argues that demand for preferred shares may not be sufficient. In that case, Strategy would fund dividends and Bitcoin purchases through capital dilution.
What will happen to Strategy in 2026?
The debate reflects the key question for Strategy in 2026: Can corporate Bitcoin finance survive without a speculative premium?
With mNAV close to 1x, every capital issuance is carefully analyzed. Issuing shares or preferred shares no longer automatically increases the number of Bitcoins per share. On the contrary – the market may interpret this as a sign of weakness, especially if demand is too low.
Nevertheless, a bullish scenario requires patience. Supporters believe that moderate Bitcoin price growth, sustained USD weakness, and potential interest rate cuts could gradually restore confidence in Strategy's profit model.
Conversely, the bearish scenario warns that without renewed market appetite, the experiment could stall. Such a scenario might turn Strategy into an unstable, underperforming substitute rather than a better alternative to direct Bitcoin or ETFs.
These outlooks make Strategy a current test of whether capital markets will continue to finance leveraged Bitcoin exposure once the noise fades and the premium cushion disappears.
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