economy

China’s economic growth has slowed to its lowest pace in three years, even as the country posts a record trade surplus. Although the tariff war with the U.S. under Donald Trump has come to an end, weak consumer demand and sluggish investment continue to weigh on the economy.
China’s gross domestic product grew by just 4.5% in Q4 2025, marking its weakest performance since 2022. For the full year, GDP rose by approximately 5%, in line with Beijing’s official target. While this result exceeded early-year pessimistic forecasts, the broader picture reveals deeper structural issues within China’s economy.

Strong Exports, Weak Consumer Spending

Much of the growth in 2025 was driven by exports – primarily to Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Europe. Even though exports to the U.S. dropped by 20% due to tariffs, China achieved a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion.
Meanwhile, consumer spending remained flat. Many Chinese households and businesses are saving rather than spending, anticipating further price declines – a sign of deflation. This dampens motivation for purchases, investments, and expansion.

Falling Investment Signals Economic Imbalance

While exports surged, investment and domestic consumption faltered. Fixed-asset investment – including spending on factories, infrastructure, and real estate – either stagnated or saw minimal growth, marking some of the weakest performance in years.
This contrast reveals a widening gap: while China maintains its position as an export powerhouse, internal demand is failing to keep up. This imbalance affects jobs, incomes, and overall consumer confidence.

Beijing Seeks Solutions Amid Mounting Pressure

In response, Chinese leaders are exploring strategies to stabilize the economy. Proposed measures include interest rate cuts to encourage borrowing, more accessible credit for households and businesses, and stronger emphasis on domestic consumption.
The People’s Bank of China has already begun easing rates in key sectors such as tech and agriculture. These efforts are expected to continue into 2026. However, experts warn that if export momentum slows, Beijing may need to rely on stronger stimulus measures, including large-scale government spending.
With ongoing deflation, weak household spending, and global uncertainty, Chinese families may face slower wage growth and fewer job opportunities. Small businesses, restaurants, and retailers may continue to struggle unless consumer sentiment shifts.
Strong exports will remain a critical pillar—but not a sufficient one—to keep the economy afloat.

#china , #economy , #deflation , #worldnews , #TRUMP

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The global economy is entering a turbulent phase of distrust, technological disruption, and geopolitical tension. The newly released Global Risks Report 2026 by the World Economic Forum (WEF) warns that the planet is facing a true “polycrisis” — a dangerous blend of economic conflict, AI instability, and relentless climate shocks.

Economy as a Weapon: Tariffs, Sanctions, and Trade Wars
The report identifies geo-economic confrontation as the number one global risk over the next two years. More countries are weaponizing their economies — using tariffs, export bans, investment restrictions, and tech regulations as geopolitical tools. This trend could severely damage global trade and cooperation.
Saadia Zahidi, managing director at the WEF, warns that inflation, market volatility, and ballooning public debt are amplifying the risk of a global economic downturn. Insurance giant Marsh, which co-published the report, describes the current era not as a single crisis but a "polycrisis moment".
“Companies today face multiple, overlapping challenges — from trade barriers and weather extremes to cultural divisions and rapid tech disruption,” said Marsh CEO John Doyle.

Disinformation and Polarization on the Rise
The second most urgent short-term threat is disinformation, especially online. Close behind is social fragmentation — the widening gap between ideological groups, fueled by distrust and tribalism.
Looking further ahead, inequality emerges as the most interconnected issue, underlying and exacerbating all other risks.

Artificial Intelligence: Rocketing Up the Risk Ladder
While AI risks ranked 30th last year, AI system failure has now surged into the top six long-term global threats.
The main fear? Mass job loss. As AI replaces human workers, consumption could fall, wealth gaps may widen, and public frustration could rise — even if businesses become more productive.
Additionally, the intersection of AI and quantum computing may lead to unpredictable outcomes where “humans lose control,” the report warns.

Natural Disasters: Sixth Year of Record Losses
Climate-related disasters continue to dominate in terms of frequency and cost. In 2025, insurers are projected to pay out more than $107 billion — the sixth consecutive year above the $100 billion mark.
Doyle cited California wildfires as an example, saying insurance pricing must reflect real risk and that new tech must help reduce future losses.
“There are investors and insurers willing to underwrite these risks,” he said. “But construction standards and tech must evolve.”
The report predicts that extreme heat, droughts, wildfires, and other weather events will become more intense and frequent in the years ahead.

Environmental Issues Losing Attention?
Interestingly, environmental concerns like pollution, species extinction, and ecological collapse are declining in perceived urgency. This shift shows how drastically global priorities have changed in recent years.

Bottom Line: The World Needs a “Coalition of the Willing”
The report ends with a clear message: Governments, businesses, academics, and civil society must work together to tackle the world’s greatest threats.
“Coalitions of the willing” will be essential to finding practical solutions to our most urgent global problems,” the report concludes.

#economy , #AI , #globaleconomy , #Geopolitics , #worldnews

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The race to lead the U.S. central bank is taking a sharp turn. Kevin Warsh’s chances of becoming the next Federal Reserve chair have jumped after Donald Trump suggested that his economic adviser Kevin Hassett is unlikely to succeed Jerome Powell.

Trump cools on Hassett, Warsh gains momentum
According to prediction market data, Warsh has become the clear favorite to take over as Fed chair, with his nomination odds rising to around 56%. That places the former Federal Reserve governor firmly at the top of the field.

The shift followed Trump’s remarks at a rural health policy event, where he addressed speculation around Hassett’s future. Referring to his top economic adviser, Trump said he would prefer to keep Hassett in his current role at the White House, highlighting his strong communication skills. Trump also remarked that current Fed officials “don’t talk very much,” contrasting that with Hassett’s ability to communicate effectively.

A dramatic reversal from late 2024
The development marks a significant reversal. Until early December last year, Hassett had been the dominant favorite to replace Powell, with his odds climbing above 80%. As the year drew to a close, however, the race tightened, and Hassett’s probability dropped below 50%. Following Trump’s latest comments, his chances now sit at roughly 16%.
Meanwhile, Warsh has steadily moved into pole position. Trump has also indicated that he largely agrees with Warsh on monetary policy, particularly on the need for lower interest rates.

Other contenders remain in play
Trump’s remarks have also reshaped expectations around other candidates. Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller is now viewed by some market participants as a more likely choice than Hassett, with his odds estimated at about 16.2%.
Another name attracting attention is Rick Rieder, the chief investment officer at BlackRock. His chances are estimated at around 7% and have improved after he publicly supported cutting interest rates to roughly 3%.

Lower rates as a common theme
Hassett, Waller, and Rieder have all voiced support for lower interest rates, aligning closely with Trump’s long-standing preference for looser monetary policy. Warsh, by contrast, has been more reserved in public about rate cuts. Even so, Trump has stated that the former Fed governor broadly shares his views on the direction of interest rates.
While the contest for the Fed’s top job is still unfolding, Trump’s latest signals have clearly shifted momentum. For now, Kevin Warsh appears to be the leading candidate to shape U.S. monetary policy in the years ahead.

#FederalReserve , #TRUMP , #WallStreet , #economy , #Fed

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Spot Bitcoin$BTC ETF Approvals: The market was still riding the momentum from the historic approval of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs by the U.S. SEC on January 10th. While there was an initial "sell-the-news" dip, the subsequent days saw significant inflows into these new ETFs (notably from BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC), demonstrating strong institutional and traditional investor demand. This renewed confidence was a primary driver for Bitcoin's price surge.
#economy Macroeconomic Climate: Broader financial markets were rising on growing anticipation that the U.S. Federal Reserve would end its rate-hiking cycle and potentially cut rates in 2024. This weakened the U.S. Dollar$ Index (DXY) and made risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies more attractive.