📊 U.S. Manufacturing & Trade Report Shows Mixed Signals
New data from the U.S. Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales report (October 2025) shows the economy sending conflicting signals — a blend of strength and caution. (Census.gov)
📉 Slower Sales, But Still Growing Year‑Over‑Year
Combined distributive trade sales + manufacturers’ shipments: ~$1.94 trillion in October
• Down ~0.2% from September
• Up ~3.5% from October 2024
This suggests recent softness month‑to‑month, but underlying annual growth remains intact. (Census.gov)
📦 Inventories Climb
Business inventories: up ~0.3% from September
Inventories also higher year‑over‑year
Rising inventories can signal slower demand or stockpiling ahead of uncertainty — both influence trade dynamics. (Census.gov)
⚖️ Mixed Manufacturing Signals
Two key readings paint different pictures:
• S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI: Slightly above expansion territory, pointing to modest growth in activity and new orders. (Trading Economics)
• ISM Manufacturing PMI: Below 50 — indicating contraction in traditional factory activity amid tariff uncertainty and softer orders. (Forex Factory)
🔍 Market Takeaway
✅ Annual activity still structurally higher
❌ Month‑to‑month sales contraction & inventory buildup
⚠️ Manufacturing surveys diverging (some show expansion, others contraction)
This mix reflects ongoing adjustments in U.S. trade and industrial sectors — influenced by tariffs, supply chains, and global demand shifts.
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