1.15 Bitcoin Market Outlook
In the past 24 hours, nearly 700 million dollars of short positions in the crypto market have been liquidated, while long positions only lost around 100 million dollars. This rally has wiped out a large number of short positions around 90,000, and as bullish sentiment rises, the liquidated shorts become an accelerating force. Favorable macro conditions and domestic policy support allowing individuals to hold and trade cryptocurrencies have further strengthened bullish sentiment.
Yesterday, Bitcoin surged to 93,800, and buying pressure intensified again, pushing the price up to around 96,800. The subsequent hourly candles showed retracements without long wicks or strong selling pressure, and the retracement pace was unevenâmore indicative of staggered profit-taking by bulls. During this consolidation, Bitcoin moved toward 94,800. At around 10 PM, buying volume surged again near this level, with the first hourly candle pushing prices up by 2,000 points, the second candle reaching new highs, and buying pressure still increasingâshowcasing strong bullish momentum. The current uptrend is not yet complete, and there is no clear resistance. After consolidation, the market is likely to continue its upward movement.
As for Ethereum, at around 6 AM, buying pressure emerged near 3,200, forming a large bullish candle that pushed prices up to around 3,380. This single candle wiped out 170 million dollars in short positions. Clearly, shorts were turned into fuel. However, after forming a small wick at 3,330, Ethereum failed to maintain its earlier strength. When Bitcoinâs buying pressure surged and set new highs in the evening, Ethereum did not follow up with a strong rally and did not reach the pinning level. This type of behavior in a bullish market often means early consolidation, followed by a catch-up rally.
Given that Bitcoin has risen by 5,000 points recently and Ethereum by nearly 300 points, many investors are facing the dilemma of missing the move and are hesitant to chase gains or go against the trend by shorting, thus choosing toè§æ (wait and see). Looking at the details, the divergence between Bitcoinâs rise and Ethereumâs lack of synchronization already signals that shorts are becoming active. The first pinning level is usually a test. Some market participants will enter short positions during a second test. As long as either Bitcoin or Ethereum hasnât completed this test, it means only one side has been absorbed. Therefore, Ethereum may consolidate before a squeeze, while Bitcoin could continue its upward move after consolidation. The market still has room to rise. For longs, entries around 94,800â95,200 for Bitcoin and 3,300 for Ethereum are viable, with stop-losses at 94,200 and 3,258 respectively. For shorts, entries at 97,500 for Bitcoin and 3,380 for Ethereum are possible, with tighter stop-losses offering a decent risk-reward ratio. Overall, itâs still recommended to follow the market sentiment.
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