stablecoins

Speaking at the Delphi Economic Forum, Federal Reserve Governor Miran placed stablecoins squarely into the conversation about the future of U.S. monetary influence. His remarks signaled a growing recognition inside central banking circles that dollar-backed digital assets are no longer a fringe innovation, but a potential structural force shaping global demand for U.S. financial instruments.
Stablecoins as a New Demand Engine for the Dollar
Miran argued that stablecoins backed by U.S. dollars or short-term Treasury assets effectively export the dollar into the digital economy. Each stablecoin issued requires reserves, often held in cash or Treasuries, which creates incremental demand for U.S. safe assets. In his view, this mechanism could scale dramatically. He estimated that the stablecoin market could grow to between $1 trillion and $3 trillion by the end of the decade, up from roughly $150–200 billion today.
Unlike traditional dollar usage that relies on correspondent banking or sovereign reserve holdings, stablecoins circulate natively across borders. They are used for remittances, on-chain trading, payments, and settlement, often in regions where access to U.S. banking rails is limited. Miran framed this as a quiet reinforcement of dollar dominance rather than a challenge to it.
Monetary Policy Context: Rate Cuts and Productivity
Miran’s comments came against the backdrop of easing inflation and growing debate over the Federal Reserve’s policy path. He referenced calls for up to 150 basis points of rate cuts this year, reflecting confidence that inflation pressures are cooling. Lower rates, he suggested, could coexist with a strong dollar if global demand for dollar-denominated assets remains robust.
He also linked stablecoins to a broader push for deregulation and productivity growth. By reducing friction in payments and settlement, digital dollar instruments could lower transaction costs and improve capital efficiency, supporting economic growth without relying solely on monetary stimulus.
Why Crypto Markets Took Notice
Crypto market participants quickly interpreted Miran’s remarks as a tacit endorsement of digital assets’ strategic role. Stablecoins, long viewed primarily as trading infrastructure, were framed instead as macroeconomic tools that extend U.S. financial influence. For an industry often positioned in opposition to central banks, the idea that stablecoins might strengthen the existing dollar system marked a notable shift in tone.
This narrative aligns with recent policy discussions in Washington that distinguish between speculative crypto assets and dollar-backed stablecoins, increasingly treating the latter as financial infrastructure rather than systemic threats.
Skepticism and Open Questions
Not everyone was convinced. Critics argue that while stablecoins may increase demand for Treasuries at the margin, they do not address deeper fiscal concerns such as rising U.S. debt or long-term deficits. Others warn that concentration of reserves among a few issuers could introduce new systemic risks, especially during market stress.
There is also the unresolved regulatory question. For stablecoins to scale to the levels Miran suggested, clear federal oversight, reserve standards, and redemption guarantees will be essential. Without them, growth could stall or fragment across jurisdictions.
A Subtle but Significant Signal
Miran’s remarks did not amount to formal policy, but they mattered. They reflected an evolving mindset within parts of the Federal Reserve: that digital finance, if structured correctly, may reinforce rather than undermine the dollar’s global role. Whether stablecoins ultimately become a pillar of dollar dominance or a contested experiment will depend less on technology and more on regulation, trust, and execution over the coming decade.
#FedRateCut #TrumpCrypto #Stablecoins #MarketRebound #CryptoNews
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Bank of Italy–Style Models: Ethereum Collapse and Infrastructure Risk
Abstract
As blockchain networks become systemically important, central banks and financial institutions are increasingly studying the infrastructure risks embedded in public blockchains. Using modeling approaches similar to those employed by institutions like the Bank of Italy, this article explores a hypothetical scenario: What happens if Ethereum suffers a large-scale collapse? We analyze Ethereum as a financial infrastructure, identify fragility points, and explain how network stress can propagate across decentralized finance (DeFi), stablecoins, and global crypto markets.

1. Ethereum as Financial Infrastructure, Not Just a Token
Ethereum is no longer just a cryptocurrency. It functions as:
A settlement layer for DeFiA collateral backbone for stablecoinsA smart-contract execution engineA liquidity hub for NFTs, bridges, and Layer-2s
From a central-bank modeling perspective, Ethereum resembles a financial market infrastructure (FMI)—similar to payment systems or clearing houses.
➡️ This means Ethereum failure risk is systemic, not isolated.

2. How Central Banks Model Infrastructure Risk
Institutions like the Bank of Italy typically use:
Network theory modelsStress-testing frameworksAgent-based simulationsLiquidity contagion models
Applied to Ethereum, these models focus on:
Node concentrationValidator incentivesLiquidity dependenciesSmart-contract interconnections
The goal is to answer one question:
Can a shock in one part of the system cascade into total failure?

3. Key Fragility Points in Ethereum’s Architecture
3.1 Validator Concentration Risk
Ethereum’s Proof-of-Stake relies on validators, but:
Large staking providers control a significant shareRegulatory pressure on validators can cause coordinated exitsSlashing events can amplify panic
📉 Model Outcome: Reduced validator participation → slower finality → loss of trust.

3.2 DeFi Liquidity Feedback Loops
Ethereum hosts massive leveraged positions through:
Lending protocolsLiquid staking tokens (LSTs)Synthetic assets
In stress models:
ETH price dropsCollateral ratios failLiquidations spikeGas fees surgeNetwork congestion worsens
This creates a negative reflexivity loop.

3.3 Stablecoin Dependency Risk
Most major stablecoins depend on Ethereum rails.
If Ethereum stalls:
Stablecoin redemptions slowArbitrage breaksPeg instability increases
📊 Central-bank-style simulations show that stablecoin stress accelerates systemic collapse faster than price volatility alone.

4. Hypothetical Ethereum Collapse Scenario (Modeled)
Phase 1: Shock Event
Regulatory action, major exploit, or validator outageETH price drops sharply
Phase 2: Liquidity Freeze
DeFi protocols halt withdrawalsBridges become bottlenecksGas fees spike uncontrollably
Phase 3: Contagion
L2s fail due to Ethereum dependenceCross-chain liquidity dries upStablecoin confidence erodes
Phase 4: Market Repricing
ETH loses its “risk-free crypto collateral” statusCapital migrates to alternative chains or exits crypto entirely

5. Why This Matters Beyond Crypto
From a Bank-of-Italy-style macro view:
Crypto markets are increasingly interlinked with traditional financeEthereum acts as a shadow settlement layerFailure could impact:Crypto fundsPayment startupsTokenized real-world assets (RWA)
This is why regulators study Ethereum not as innovation—but as infrastructure risk.

6. Risk Is Structural, Not Technical
Important insight from infrastructure modeling:
Ethereum does not fail because of bad code alone —
it fails when economic incentives, liquidity, and trust break simultaneously.
Even perfect technology cannot survive:
Liquidity runsGovernance paralysisConfidence collapse

7. Can Ethereum Reduce Collapse Risk?
Mitigation strategies identified in systemic models include:
Validator decentralizationBetter liquidation throttlesReduced DeFi leverageMulti-chain settlement redundancy
However, no system is collapse-proof—only collapse-resistant.

Conclusion
Using modeling logic similar to that applied by the Bank of Italy, Ethereum emerges as a critical but fragile financial infrastructure. A collapse would not be a simple price crash—it would be a network-wide liquidity and trust failure, with cascading effects across the crypto ecosystem.
For traders, builders, and policymakers, the lesson is clear:
Ethereum risk is no longer speculative risk — it is systemic infrastructure risk.

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Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has strongly criticized the U.S. Senate Banking Committee’s proposed crypto market structure bill. According to him, the bill would harm the crypto industry more than if there were no regulation at all. Armstrong shared his position on platform X (formerly Twitter), warning of serious consequences the legislation could have for decentralized finance, user privacy, and market competition.

Coinbase: This Bill Threatens the Future of Crypto
Armstrong pointed out that the Senate’s proposal would:

🔹 Ban tokenized stocks

🔹 Restrict the DeFi sector

🔹 Give the government access to users’ financial data

🔹 Undermine the CFTC’s role while empowering the SEC

🔹 Penalize stablecoins and block fair competition with traditional banks
He warned that the bill, in its current form, would damage innovation and strengthen the monopoly of large financial institutions. Nevertheless, Coinbase plans to continue working on improving the bill through dialogue with lawmakers.
“We appreciate the lawmakers’ bipartisan efforts, but this version is significantly worse than the status quo. We would prefer no bill over a bad one,” Armstrong stated.

Crypto Market Grows, While Regulation Lags Behind
Ironically, this debate comes at a time when the crypto market is surging again. The total market capitalization grew 3% in the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin heading toward $98,000 and Ethereum nearing $3,500.
Industry experts agree that clear legislation is needed to define when a digital asset is a security and when it is a commodity. While the proposed bill does grant more power to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), it also contains sections that could hinder the growth of stablecoins—therefore blocking the development of decentralized financial services.

137 Amendments Filed, Banks Accused of Influence
The bill has triggered a wave of public responses. So far, over 137 amendments have been submitted, with final wording expected after further negotiations. Meanwhile, crypto industry groups accuse banks of wielding excessive influence over the bill’s content.
Summer Mersinger, CEO of the Blockchain Association, stated that banks are pushing to shape the law in their favor, preventing new players from entering the market. Proposed limitations on stablecoin rewards would, she said, hurt consumers and block innovation before it can compete.

#coinbase , #CryptoNews , #brianarmstrong , #Stablecoins , #defi

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From Rivals to Resources: Why the Fed is Embracing the Stablecoin Era
The narrative surrounding digital finance has reached a historic crossroads. For years, the relationship between traditional central banking and the crypto world was defined by friction and skepticism. However, we are witnessing a monumental pivot: the Federal Reserve is no longer viewing well-regulated stablecoins as a threat, but as a strategic ally to the U.S. Dollar.
A New Strategic Vision
The Fed’s shift in tone signals a realization that the digital evolution of money is inevitable. By acknowledging the utility of dollar-pegged assets, the U.S. central bank is essentially "onboarding" the dollar into the digital age.
Global Reach: Stablecoins allow the dollar to bypass traditional banking borders, offering instant liquidity in markets where physical or traditional digital banking is slow or inaccessible.
Strengthening Dominance: Instead of replacing the dollar, these digital assets act as a new delivery mechanism, reinforcing the USD as the world’s primary reserve currency.
Why This Matters for the Crypto Market
This isn't just a win for stablecoin issuers; it is a massive credibility boost for the entire blockchain ecosystem. When the world’s most powerful financial institution validates the infrastructure of digital assets, the ripple effects are profound:
Institutional Confidence: Banks and hedge funds that were previously "on the fence" now have a clearer regulatory green light to integrate crypto services.
Efficiency over Friction: The goal is moving toward a system where dollar transactions are faster, cheaper, and transparent—benefiting everyone from retail users to global corporations.
Market Legitimacy: This pivot strips away the "outsider" label from crypto, positioning it as a fundamental layer of the modern financial fabric.
"The future isn't a competition between the old guard and the new tech—it’s the integration of the two."
The Bottom Line
We are moving away from the era of "Crypto vs. The Fed" and entering an era of Digital Integration. As stablecoins become more transparent and strictly regulated, they will serve as the bridge that connects the stability of the U.S. Dollar with the speed of the blockchain.
The game hasn't just changed; it has been upgraded.
What do you think? Is this the start of a permanent bull run for digital assets?
#CryptoNews #FederalReserve #Stablecoins $BTC #DigitalEconomy" #FinanceEvolution
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