December 26, 2025 ā Boxing Day ā and the crypto world is holding its breath. Deribit is settling the largest options expiry in history, with over $27 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts expiring at 08:00 UTC. Bitcoin is trading around $88,500ā$89,000, up slightly post-Christmas but still stuck in that stubborn December range.
Will this massive event finally shake BTC out of its $85Kā$90K consolidation? Or will thin holiday liquidity keep things pinned until 2026?
### Why This Expiry Is a Game-Changer
- Historic Scale: ~$23.6B in BTC options alone (268,000+ contracts) + $3.8B ETH. This quarterly/annual rollover clears over 50% of Deribit's total open interest.
- Bullish Skew: Put-call ratio around 0.38 ā heavy call dominance, with big OI clusters at $90Kā$100K+ strikes. Traders were betting on upside earlier this year.
- Gamma Squeeze Potential: Pre-expiry dealer hedging has suppressed volatility (DVOL ~45%). Post-expiry, that "pinning" fades ā room for sharper moves.
- Max Pain ~$95K: Price often drifts toward max pain pre-settlement. A push higher today could set up momentum... or a brutal rejection.
### Current Market Snapshot
Bitcoin closed 2025 down ~7ā10% YTD after peaking above $126K in October. Blame macro rotation (gold +70%!), holiday outflows, and profit-taking.
But the bulls have ammo:
- Spot BTC ETFs: Massive $25B+ inflows to leaders like BlackRock's IBIT despite recent holiday reds (~$175M out on Dec 24).
- Institutional HODL: Corporates (e.g., Metaplanet targeting 210K BTC) and on-chain data show strong accumulation.
- Post-Expiry Catalyst: Fresh liquidity in January + potential rate cuts could flip the script.
Alts are quiet ā some pumps (PROM +11%), but focus is laser'd on BTC. Meanwhile, beware risks: A separate Trust Wallet Chrome extension hack drained $7M+ yesterday ā reminder to stay safe out there.
### Scenarios Post-Expiry
- Bullish Breakout: Gamma unwind + returning volume ā Clear $90K resistance ā Fast move to $95Kā$100K to end the year green.
- Bearish Rejection: Failed push leads to retest $85Kā$87K support ā Extended chop into 2026.
- Sideways Grind: Low volume absorbs the event ā Range holds until bigger catalysts (regulatory wins?).
One thing's certain: After weeks of boredom, today's expiry could light the fuse. Volatility has been crushed ā when it snaps back, moves get explosive.
Traders: Watch spot flows, funding rates, and liquidations closely. HODLers: Fundamentals (ETFs, adoption) remain rock solid.
What's your play ā breakout to $100K or fakeout drop? Sound off below! š
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