The price of Ethereum is still struggling to gain new momentum, hovering around the US$3,000 level in recent sessions. This prolonged consolidation is dampening sentiment and weakening short-term confidence among ETH holders.
Nevertheless, the on-chain signals that are beginning to change and past price behavior indicate that the conditions for a potential rebound are forming.
Ethereum ETF continues to incur losses.
The Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) has faced significant pressure over the past two weeks. During this period, there was only one trading day with net inflows, driven by Grayscale's activity. Outside of that session, investors continued to withdraw funds from the ETH ETF, indicating a cautious attitude from traditional financial channels.
This correction seems to be cyclical, not structural. If Ethereum retests the support level of US$2.798, buyers are expected to re-enter. If the bounce succeeds and that zone is reclaimed, this could change market expectations and restore the price trend upwards.
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On-chain data shows that macro momentum is starting to improve beneath the surface. The HODler Net Position Change for Ethereum, which tracks the behavior of long-term holders, has surged sharply. This indicator is now around the largest outflow level in the last five months.
These changes signify that old holders are starting to reduce selling pressure and are increasingly confident in Ethereum's recovery potential. If the metrics cross the zero line, there will be a net inflow from long-term holders. This pattern has historically supported price stabilization and trend reversal.
At the time of publication, Ethereum was trading around US$2.978, held below the psychological barrier of US$3.000. This consolidation has left the market wondering whether ETH can close below that level in 2025. Ongoing doubts keep volatility high and market sentiment fragile.
However, the dynamics of ETFs and the behavior of long-term holders indicate potential changes. A controlled correction to US$2.798 could serve as a base for a rebound. If Ethereum regains the US$3.000 level as support, price movement could continue to US$3.131 or even higher.
Downside risks remain if bullish momentum fails to develop. If the price drops below US$2.798, the technical structure will weaken. In such a scenario, the price of Ethereum risks falling to US$2.681, which would cancel bullish sentiment and strengthen bearish pressure in the near term.
