Ethereum will end 2025 near $2,970 after a turbulent quarter. The market is divided. Some analysts expect the start of the next growth cycle. Others warn that the structure remains uncertain or mixed.
The truth lies in the middle. The chart suggests pressure, seasonality does not provide certainties, and on-chain flows show initial support, but not yet conviction.
The setup with which to enter 2026 is not clean. The question is simple: Is Ethereum preparing for a recovery or setting up for another downturn?
Bearish price structure meets a historically volatile start.
In the 3-day chart, ETH is moving within a bullish channel that resembles a bear flag. A break below this structure would trigger the measured downward movement. If confirmed, the technical projection indicates a possible decline of about 44% from the breakout levels.
Note: The risk of breakdown decreases significantly if Ethereum continues to move within the channel for a while longer.
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However, seasonality complicates the situation. Historically, January has been a reliable month for Ethereum, with a long-term average of about +33%, but last January was not positive. January 2025 opened with a decline and led to four consecutive months in the red. If the flag breakdown were to occur, the seasonal momentum that often kicks off a new year could fail once again.
The bearish risk, combined with a historically volatile phase, does not align with expert forecasts that see Ethereum reaching anywhere between $7,000 and $9,000 billion in 2026. At least not yet.
This weakness coincides with what Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget, stated to BeInCrypto regarding the $9,000 billion forecast for 2026:
“Capital must stop leaving Ethereum, real usage must grow beyond current pilot projects, and supply must remain locked for longer periods,” he explains.
He added that the current context does not yet support breakout expectations:
“We consider the current scenario as mixed,” he added.
Therefore, the chart shows risk. Seasonality shows uncertainty. The analyst's outlook indicates a slow, conditioned recovery reliant on external factors. Such improvements might be seen on-chain, but currently appear weak.
On-chain flows show hope, but not yet conviction.
Some on-chain signals go against a total breakdown downward.
Long-term holders have finally returned to buying. The Hodler Net Position Change indicator (which shows the flows of long-term investors' wallets) turned positive on December 26 for the first time since July, and it remained positive for several days. This signals the arrival of patient capital at lower levels, but with caution.
With the staking inflow tail of Ethereum surpassing that of the outflow, it is possible that hodler purchases remain locked. This is one of the requirements mentioned by Ryan Lee for a significant price movement of ETH.
Ryan also adds other details:
“Over 740,000 ETH are waiting to be staked, while about half of that amount is queued for exit. Almost 30% of the total supply of ETH is already staked,” he emphasizes.
This suggests accumulation and a willingness to lock in supply, but the sizes are not yet sufficient to generate a trend reversal. The behavior highlights interest rather than real leadership.
Even the whales have returned. After dropping to around 100.01 million ETH held outside exchanges at the end of November, the supply rose to 101.21 million ETH as of December 31. This accumulation of $3.6 billion certainly counts. However, the number remains below the peak of 101.90 million at the beginning of November. As long as that peak is not surpassed, the demand from whales acts as support, but it is not yet decisive.
ETF inflows remain the main weak point in the bullish argument. Spot Ethereum ETFs have recorded approximately $1.97 billion in outflows, with both November and December closing in the negative.
Ryan here is direct and believes that this ETF situation is a very strong limit on price movements:
“Right now, large capitals are leaving the ecosystem. This potentially limits price growth.”
Thus, the on-chain scenario shows improvements, but without conviction. It seems an early stage of building a bottom, not a real trend change.
The 2026 roadmap depends on key price levels of Ethereum.
Here the chart connects to Ryan's framework.
Ethereum must stay above $2,760 to preserve the flag structure. If it loses this level, the structure weakens and the next supports are at $2,650 and $2,400. A deeper drop towards $2,140 and $1,780 would confirm the breakdown downward. If the bear flag completes, the scenario predicts a collapse down to $1,320, in line with the projected -44% from the breakout point.
For a bullish scenario change, the price must exceed $3,470 to challenge the upper resistance. A movement above $3,670 would overturn the structure. But the real bullish breakout would only occur with Ethereum recovering $4,770 — the point where the flagpole began and the level that resets the trend.
Only above that zone do targets like $7,000–$9,000 make structural sense, and even here Ryan sees the movement still subordinated to certain conditions:
“For this reason, our baseline scenario is a slow recovery driven by conditions. The price may rise, but it is more likely to do so gradually,” he states.
He also explains who leads first if a loosening of macroeconomic policy (expectations of interest rate cuts) were to improve liquidity:
“Bitcoin will likely react first. Ethereum will follow shortly after when staking becomes dominant, tokenized asset volumes will grow, and ETF inflows stabilize,” he says.
If liquidity were to improve in 2026, Bitcoin should lead. The price of Ethereum will only follow when ETF outflows stop, the amount in the hands of whales exceeds the record high from November, and staking demand becomes continuous, supported by a steady increase in hodlers.
Until all these conditions are present together, the trend will remain neutral or bearish.
