Bitcoin is currently going through the early phase of a bear market. At least, this is what the CryptoQuant analyst suggests based on multiple on-chain and market indicators. This trend is likely to persist throughout 2026, with prices more likely to decline than reach new all-time highs (ATH).
In a conversation with BeInCrypto, Julio Moreno, head of research and CryptoQuant analyst, pointed to weakening demand as the main reason for this forecast.
CryptoQuant analyst: On-chain data confirms the bear market
Many investors are still wondering whether a broader cryptocurrency bear market lies ahead. Moreno claims Bitcoin has already entered it in November 2025:
"Essentially, every on-chain or market indicator confirms we are at the early stage of a bear market."
According to him, this is just the beginning. He expects further price declines in the coming months:
"The question is how long this will last and how low prices will fall, but from this level, I don't expect new price records."
Moreno's pessimistic forecasts are not only based on price dynamics. They are grounded in fundamentals indicating further market weakness.
The engine driving Bitcoin demand is starting to break down
Over the past few months, Bitcoin has experienced a structural decline in demand. CryptoQuant analyst is monitoring this through ETF fund flow analysis.
Between 2024 and 2025, demand for Bitcoin was supported by several clear factors. The introduction of U.S. spot ETFs on Bitcoin triggered an inflow of institutional capital and a sharp rise in demand.
Regulatory support in the United States under Donald Trump's presidency further increased risk appetite. Currently, this demand is fading:
"ETFs have been net sellers of Bitcoin at least since the beginning of November. Initially, they aggressively bought, then there was a slowdown, and now they are no longer buying—they are selling."
Lack of demand is also visible in other aspects of the market.
Forced selling risk at the center of attention
Last year, the cryptocurrency market saw an increase in firms treating Bitcoin as a treasury reserve.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) led the way, followed by MetaPlanet, Twenty One Capital, and MARA Holdings, adopting a similar accumulation strategy.
Currently, this buying wave has already faded:
"Besides MicroStrategy, practically all Bitcoin treasury firms have stopped buying. If prices continue to fall, the likelihood increases that some companies may be forced to sell their holdings."
Exactly this forced selling risk could become a catalyst for further declines.
Moreno forecasts that Bitcoin could drop as low as $56,000. Despite the risk of declines, Moreno emphasizes that Bitcoin's long-term outlook depends on the return of demand:
"When demand stops declining and begins rising again, the market structure will change."
As long as this shift doesn't appear on-chain, the most sensible strategy in the market remains caution.
To access the latest cryptocurrency market analysis from BeInCrypto, click here.
