Bitcoin is currently trading at a critical juncture. The market is preparing for a confluence of rare judicial and macroeconomic factors. Today, the U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of tariffs from the Trump administration, and this decision is likely to impact global markets just a few hours after the release of U.S. unemployment data.
These two events coinciding have created a short-term high-risk environment for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Buyers and sellers closely watching Supreme Court decision
As of this article's writing, Bitcoin is trading at $90,383, remaining within a narrow range, reflecting increasing uncertainty.
Prices are stuck in a stalemate between a clear support level backed by bulls and a resistance level defended by bears. However, technical indicators and on-chain data suggest both sides are locked in a standoff, awaiting further signals.
"This is not a routine legal update... Whether broad tariffs imposed under emergency powers are legal, and whether annual tariff revenues exceeding $130 billion are at stake, the ruling touches on the very foundation of authority and system... This is not a technical adjustment... Even if some tariffs are repealed, others will be maintained under different laws. Reversals will be partial and gradual, leading to confusion... Tariffs won't end today; what matters is how much of the current trade system will remain, and how uncertain revenues, inflation, and global trade policies will shift from here," analyst Kyle Dopes said.
Markets preparing for macro shocks that could lead to polarization
The Supreme Court ruling is scheduled for 10 a.m. Eastern Time, and will determine whether tariffs introduced during the Trump administration are legally valid.
This outcome could serve as a macro pivot point for market sentiment. Many market participants have been acting under the assumption that tariffs will remain in place, which has influenced inflation expectations, corporate earnings forecasts, and trade-linked growth projections.
Some traders have pointed out that tariff repeal could ultimately be positive for risk assets.
"If the Supreme Court rules today that Trump-era tariffs are unconstitutional, Bitcoin and crypto assets could be considered to have hit a local bottom. If tariffs are invalidated, market clarity will return, cost pressures will ease, corporate earnings outlooks will improve, and risk-on sentiment will return," analyst Fefe Demeny said.
However, sentiment is not uniform. According to Polymarket data, the probability of the Supreme Court ruling in favor of tariffs is 26%. This indicates how skewed market consensus has become, and how sharply prices could adjust if a surprise occurs.
This legal ruling will follow immediately after the U.S. employment data release scheduled for 8:30 a.m. According to Crypto Rover, this timing alone increases risk.
"Bitcoin has fallen below $90,000 again. The market is closely watching today's U.S. employment data and the Supreme Court's tariff ruling," the analyst noted, warning of the potential for extremely volatile price movements in the coming 24 hours.
Buy-side defense at lower levels, sell-side restraint at upper levels â key battleground for trading activity
According to Glassnode's on-chain data, bulls have strongly positioned themselves around $87,094. This level saw the last major Bitcoin trading activity, and holders here have significant unrealized gains, making them less likely to sell. As a result, this zone is perceived more as a natural support than an active buying opportunity.
If prices decline, this level is expected to absorb selling pressure first.
Below this level lies $84,459, providing a deeper cost-based support.
Looking upward, resistance begins at $90,880. Holders near this area are close to their breakeven point, and if prices rise into this zone, selling pressure is likely to increase.
Furthermore, according to Glassnode data, a stronger resistance forms near $92,143. This area hosts many holders with unrealized losses, potentially intensifying selling pressure.
Until bulls clearly reclaim $98,800, bears will maintain control over upward momentum.
Confirming a stalemate from volume distribution
Similar trends can be observed in TradingView's volume profile. Aggressive buying has been concentrated between $99,800 and around $93,000 (green horizontal bars), which serves as a short-term defensive line for bulls.
Meanwhile, repeated selling pressure has emerged between $91,200 and $92,000, with bears consistently blocking upward attempts (red horizontal bars).
This situation reflects a textbook scenario where price compression is progressing smoothly, with price ranges sandwiched between demand and supply. Volatility is being suppressed not by calm, but by equilibrium.
Bitcoin is caught between support from bulls and resistance from bears, with the entire market waiting for permission to move.
If prices clearly break above $92,000, it could trigger a short-covering rally by bears and lead to momentum expansion. Conversely, if prices fall below the $89,500 to $90,000 zone, further corrections down to the late $80,000s become possible.
The Supreme Court's ruling is seen as a potentially immediate catalyst to break this stalemate, with both bulls and bears closely watching to see which side will gain momentum.
