XRP price remains above $2.08, but the breakout is not yet confirmed. This is not solely due to price weakness. It is primarily about timing. Last week, XRP spot ETF inflows dropped to the lowest level since trading began. This coincides with visibly decreasing upward momentum.
Buy simultaneously long-term holders aggressively. This creates a rare conflict between institutional demand and strong conviction among long-term holders. As a result, XRP is at a critical juncture.
Weakest XRP ETF inflow week delays pattern confirmation
XRP continues to trade within a bullish inverse head-and-shoulder pattern on the daily chart. The pattern remains valid, but the breakout has stalled. The price stays above the right shoulder near $2.08, but has not yet approached the neckline confirmation.
The delay runs in line with ETF data.
In the week up to and including January 9, XRP spot ETFs recorded only $38.07 million in net inflows. This is the lowest weekly inflow since launch, nearly 84% lower than the peak at the end of November around $244 million. This moment is important.
The sharpest part of XRP's decline occurred between January 6 and January 9, precisely when ETF demand declined the most.
More insights like this? Sign up for the daily crypto newsletter by editor-in-chief Harsh Notariya here.
This does not invalidate the bullish pattern. It explains why the breakout has not yet occurred. Inverse head-and-shoulder patterns require steady demand around the neckline. As ETF inflows declined during the right shoulder, the price movement slowed instead of accelerating.
Another detail adds extra resistance. The neckline, around $2.50, is itself rising. This means the XRP price needs both strength and sustained demand to confirm the breakout. At this moment, ETF support is notably lacking.
Holder accumulation is rising as key supply zones come into view
While ETF demand weakened, something else has changed significantly.
Between January 9 and January 10, the net position of XRP holders rose from approximately 62.4 million XRP to 239.5 million XRP. That is a rise of nearly 300% in 24 hours. This metric tracks net accumulation by holders. Such a sharp increase indicates strong accumulation, not short-term trading.
This is important because it compensates for the ETF shortfall. Even as institutional ETF demand paused, long-term holders stepped in strongly.
The cost basis heatmap shows where this buying pressure hits resistance.
The first major supply cluster lies between $2.14 and $2.15, where approximately 1.88 billion XRP have been purchased. XRP is now trading just below this zone. A daily close above this level would mark the first real breakout from selling pressure.
To break through this large cluster, the XRP price needs more than just conviction from long-term holders. ETF support is needed as soon as that window opens again tomorrow.
Above this lies the next, even more important cluster between $2.48 and $2.50, where approximately 1.62 billion XRP are held. This zone is close to the neckline of the head-and-shoulder pattern. Breaking through here would not only be a technical breakout but also indicate the price moving through two strong supply zones.
This is why the ETF pause did not trigger a major downward breakout. Long-term accumulation absorbs the selling pressure, keeping XRP stable while the market waits for a new demand impulse.
XRP price levels that determine whether the breakout finally follows
The XRP price is now caught between buyers with conviction and delayed confirmation. The key levels are clear.
The first level to watch is $2.15 (more precisely $2.146). A daily close above this zone places XRP above the nearest supply zone and confirms that the recent accumulation by holders is having an effect.
Above this comes $2.28, which coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. If XRP closes above this level, the path opens toward $2.42 and then toward the neckline zone around $2.50.
A clear breakout and close above $2.50 would confirm the inverse head-and-shoulder pattern and activate the expected upside potential of 34% from current levels.
At the bottom, $2.06 remains a key support level. If this range is lost, the right shoulder of the pattern weakens, and the bullish structure will take longer, but the pattern is not immediately invalidated.
For now, the XRP price does not rule out a breakout immediately. The price is waiting. ETF demand declined precisely at the wrong moment for a clear confirmation, but long-term holders have entered strongly. Whether XRP will truly rise now depends on one thing: can new demand push the price above $2.15 and then $2.50 before conviction fades.
