XRP has dropped sharply since its peak on January 6. The price has fallen nearly 15% in just six days. Several key support levels have already been broken, and momentum remains weak. But during the selling, something unusual is happening. Buyers with strong conviction are stepping in at a pace we haven't seen since September 7.
Important price levels for XRP are still holding, and demand is building steadily despite the pressure. Therefore, an unusual divergence is now emerging between price movement and what is happening on the blockchain.
XRP's decline is due to a key trendline
Selling increased after XRP failed to reclaim its 200-day EMA at the peak on January 6. An EMA, or exponentially weighted moving average, gives greater weight to recent prices and is often used to measure trends on both short and long term. When the price lies below key EMAs, sellers typically maintain control.
After the peak, XRP first lost the 100-day EMA, then the 50-day EMA. Now the price is near the 20-day EMA, which has become the last short-term support.
This level is important because it often separates a calm retracement from a larger drop.
Want more insights into tokens like this one? Subscribe to editor Harsh Notariya's daily crypto newsletter here.
A similar situation occurred at the beginning of December. When XRP lost its 20-day EMA on December 4, the price dropped nearly 15% over the following days. This history explains why this level is now critical.
If support holds, there is hope, but if the price closes below, the decline risks continuing.
Dip buying is strongest since September — but only from certain owners
Despite technical weakness, long-term investors, i.e., buyers with conviction, are still buying more during the drop.
This is visible in HODLers net position change, a metric that shows whether long-term wallets are increasing or decreasing their holdings. When the value is positive, they are accumulating. If negative, they are selling.
The strongest accumulation comes from convinced HODLers, not from the broad group of larger investors. HODLers net position change shows wallets added around 62 million XRP on January 9, then nearly four times as much per day over the following two days.
On January 10 and 11, HODLers bought approximately 239 million XRP and 243 million XRP respectively, despite the price continuing to drop. This makes it the strongest two-day buying period during a decline since September 7.
Large investors, so-called whales, are however cautious. Only the smaller ones, holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP, have shown activity. Together, their holdings have grown from 3.52 billion to 3.53 billion XRP, an increase of about 10 million XRP. At current prices, this equates to approximately 20.5 million USD in purchases.
This is not broad accumulation. It is targeted and defensive buying. Smaller whales are entering near key levels, but larger players are still waiting. This imbalance explains why XRP finds support but struggles to make a strong upward move.
Supply clusters and XRP price levels explain the conviction
Buyers' conviction aligns well with XRP's cost structure.
Supply clusters form where large amounts of XRP were previously bought at similar price levels. These zones often act as support levels because those who are nearly in profit tend to buy more during declines rather than sell at a loss.
Two major supply clusters are just below the current price. The first lies between 2.00 USD and 2.01 USD, where approximately 1.9 billion XRP were bought.
The second level lies between 1.96 USD and 1.97 USD, with an additional 1.8 billion XRP bought. These levels explain why selling pressure has eased despite weak momentum.
As long as these clusters hold, the XRP price can form long lower tails and attempt to stabilize. If XRP regains the 20-day EMA near 2.04 USD, that will be the first sign that the defense is working.
On the upside, XRP must reclaim 2.21 USD, then 2.41 USD, the peak from January 6. If XRP moves above 2.41 USD, 2.69 USD could become possible again and the structure would turn positive.
Downside risk remains. If XRP clearly falls below 2.01 USD, 1.97 USD could be the next level, followed by 1.77 USD. Note that the cluster on the blockchain also has active support levels on the XRP price chart.
XRP draws its strength from structure, not momentum or large whales. The 20-day trendline has not been fully broken, and tight supply clusters lie just below the price. As long as these two factors hold, buyers remain ready to enter during dips.
