economy

China’s economic growth has slowed to its lowest pace in three years, even as the country posts a record trade surplus. Although the tariff war with the U.S. under Donald Trump has come to an end, weak consumer demand and sluggish investment continue to weigh on the economy.
China’s gross domestic product grew by just 4.5% in Q4 2025, marking its weakest performance since 2022. For the full year, GDP rose by approximately 5%, in line with Beijing’s official target. While this result exceeded early-year pessimistic forecasts, the broader picture reveals deeper structural issues within China’s economy.

Strong Exports, Weak Consumer Spending

Much of the growth in 2025 was driven by exports – primarily to Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Europe. Even though exports to the U.S. dropped by 20% due to tariffs, China achieved a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion.
Meanwhile, consumer spending remained flat. Many Chinese households and businesses are saving rather than spending, anticipating further price declines – a sign of deflation. This dampens motivation for purchases, investments, and expansion.

Falling Investment Signals Economic Imbalance

While exports surged, investment and domestic consumption faltered. Fixed-asset investment – including spending on factories, infrastructure, and real estate – either stagnated or saw minimal growth, marking some of the weakest performance in years.
This contrast reveals a widening gap: while China maintains its position as an export powerhouse, internal demand is failing to keep up. This imbalance affects jobs, incomes, and overall consumer confidence.

Beijing Seeks Solutions Amid Mounting Pressure

In response, Chinese leaders are exploring strategies to stabilize the economy. Proposed measures include interest rate cuts to encourage borrowing, more accessible credit for households and businesses, and stronger emphasis on domestic consumption.
The People’s Bank of China has already begun easing rates in key sectors such as tech and agriculture. These efforts are expected to continue into 2026. However, experts warn that if export momentum slows, Beijing may need to rely on stronger stimulus measures, including large-scale government spending.
With ongoing deflation, weak household spending, and global uncertainty, Chinese families may face slower wage growth and fewer job opportunities. Small businesses, restaurants, and retailers may continue to struggle unless consumer sentiment shifts.
Strong exports will remain a critical pillar—but not a sufficient one—to keep the economy afloat.

#china , #economy , #deflation , #worldnews , #TRUMP

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Важливі економічні події цього тижня, 19–25 січня 2026 року

Понеділок, 19 січня 2026 року

Вихідний день у США — День Мартіна Лютера Кінга

Середа, 21 січня 2026 року

15:30
Виступ президента США Дональда Трампа

Четвер, 22 січня 2026 року

15:30
ВВП (квартальний, QoQ), 3-й квартал 2025 року
Прогноз: 4,3%
Попереднє значення: 3,8%

15:30
Кількість первинних заявок на допомогу по безробіттю
Прогноз: 203 тис.
Попереднє значення: 198 тис.

17:00
Базовий індекс цін витрат на особисте споживання (Core PCE, MoM), листопад
Прогноз: 0,2%
Попереднє значення: 0,2%

17:00
Базовий індекс цін витрат на особисте споживання (Core PCE, YoY), листопад
Прогноз: 2,7%
Попереднє значення: 2,8%

19:00
Запаси сирої нафти (EIA)
Попереднє значення: +3,391 млн барелів

П’ятниця, 23 січня 2026 року

16:45
Індекс ділової активності (PMI) у сфері послуг, січень
Прогноз: 52,8
Попереднє значення: 52,5

16:45
Індекс ділової активності (PMI) у виробничому секторі, січень
Прогноз: 52,1
Попереднє значення: 51,8

Цього тижня ключовими подіями будуть оновлені дані щодо ВВП за 3-й квартал 2025 року (які вийшли сильнішими за очікування), виступ президента Трампа та важливі індикатори інфляції (Core PCE), які Федеральна резервна система використовує для прийняття рішень щодо процентних ставок. Також варто звернути увагу на ринок нафти та дані PMI, які сигналізують про стан економічної активності на початку 2026 року.
#frs #economy #TRUMP

The race to lead the U.S. central bank is taking a sharp turn. Kevin Warsh’s chances of becoming the next Federal Reserve chair have jumped after Donald Trump suggested that his economic adviser Kevin Hassett is unlikely to succeed Jerome Powell.

Trump cools on Hassett, Warsh gains momentum
According to prediction market data, Warsh has become the clear favorite to take over as Fed chair, with his nomination odds rising to around 56%. That places the former Federal Reserve governor firmly at the top of the field.

The shift followed Trump’s remarks at a rural health policy event, where he addressed speculation around Hassett’s future. Referring to his top economic adviser, Trump said he would prefer to keep Hassett in his current role at the White House, highlighting his strong communication skills. Trump also remarked that current Fed officials “don’t talk very much,” contrasting that with Hassett’s ability to communicate effectively.

A dramatic reversal from late 2024
The development marks a significant reversal. Until early December last year, Hassett had been the dominant favorite to replace Powell, with his odds climbing above 80%. As the year drew to a close, however, the race tightened, and Hassett’s probability dropped below 50%. Following Trump’s latest comments, his chances now sit at roughly 16%.
Meanwhile, Warsh has steadily moved into pole position. Trump has also indicated that he largely agrees with Warsh on monetary policy, particularly on the need for lower interest rates.

Other contenders remain in play
Trump’s remarks have also reshaped expectations around other candidates. Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller is now viewed by some market participants as a more likely choice than Hassett, with his odds estimated at about 16.2%.
Another name attracting attention is Rick Rieder, the chief investment officer at BlackRock. His chances are estimated at around 7% and have improved after he publicly supported cutting interest rates to roughly 3%.

Lower rates as a common theme
Hassett, Waller, and Rieder have all voiced support for lower interest rates, aligning closely with Trump’s long-standing preference for looser monetary policy. Warsh, by contrast, has been more reserved in public about rate cuts. Even so, Trump has stated that the former Fed governor broadly shares his views on the direction of interest rates.
While the contest for the Fed’s top job is still unfolding, Trump’s latest signals have clearly shifted momentum. For now, Kevin Warsh appears to be the leading candidate to shape U.S. monetary policy in the years ahead.

#FederalReserve , #TRUMP , #WallStreet , #economy , #Fed

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,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“