NFP December 2025 – Short & Current Summary (released Jan 2026)🔥
Non-farm payrolls: +50k (well below expectations ~110–130k)
Unemployment rate: 4.4% (down from 4.6%)
Hourly earnings: +0.3% m/m (still moderate)
Weakest non-recession year since 2003: average ~49k jobs/month throughout 2025
Key signal:
Labor market clearly slowed in H2 2025.
Very weak December + extremely low full-year momentum → markets now strongly pricing in Fed rate cuts in 2026 (likely already in Q1–Q2).
Bottom line: weak data → more monetary easing in 2026
