🚨 BREAKING – MAJOR GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS (Jan 15 2026)
🛫 1. Iran Has Closed Its Airspace to Most Flights
Iran has issued official notices closing its airspace to the majority of flights, allowing only very limited international flights with prior permission. This has forced reroutes and cancellations by global airlines.
This closure is tied to heightened tensions — both internal political unrest and rising friction with the U.S..
⚠️ 2. Reports of Explosions in Tehran
There are social media and anecdotal claims claiming explosions in Tehran. However:
No major international news outlets have confirmed large-scale military strikes or bombings in Tehran today.
Past credible explosions in Tehran were connected to Israel-Iran conflict phases in 2025, not a U.S. strike.
That means as of now, explosions are unverified and could be mistaken reports, older clips, or localized air-defense activity — not confirmed U.S. military strikes.
📊 3. Why Polymarket Is Pricing High Odds of a U.S. Strike
Markets like Polymarket reflect trader beliefs and sentiment, not confirmed government action:
Prediction markets recently priced a high probability (e.g., ~70–75%) of U.S. military action against Iran by later dates, based on ongoing tensions and trader positioning.
This isn’t an official forecast — it’s the collective expectation of traders, and markets can flip quickly with news.
So while the market pricing suggests increased risk, it does not confirm that a strike is imminent or authorized by any government.
🧨 4. What’s Driving the Tensions
Several overlapping factors are fueling anxiety:
Iran’s internal political crisis with mass protests and a violent crackdown.
International condemnation and sanctions pressure from Western powers.
Airspace closure and restricted flights, affecting global aviation and signaling heightened defensive posture.
Past hostilities between Iran and Israel have included real explosions in Tehran during air campaigns in 2025.
