📊 WIN RATE & MARKET SENTIMENT (FGI) — updated through 2026-01-17
Community scalping data still shows a very weak, slightly negative link between FGI and win rate (r ≈ -0.18). FGI isn’t a linear “entry signal”; meaningful divergence appears mainly in extreme zones, especially high greed. In the 20–<80 range, performance gaps across Fear / Neutral / Greed are small, and the Greed band is slightly below the overall average in the current dataset.
🔍 Quick read
Extreme Fear (<20) remains the highest average win-rate band (but sample is still small). Fear (20–<40) stays above the baseline, Neutral (40–<60) sits near average, Greed (60–<80) is flat/slightly weaker, and Extreme Greed (≥80) remains the weakest zone.
📉 Avg win rate by FGI band (days)
Extreme Greed (≥80): 40.52% — n=25
Greed (60–<80): 45.06% — n=215
Neutral (40–<60): 45.47% — n=136
Fear (20–<40): 46.84% — n=164
Extreme Fear (<20): 47.09% — n=24
Overall average: 45.56%
Share of days above average: 12.00% • 41.86% • 45.59% • 56.71% • 58.33%
📈 Scalping takeaways
FGI ≥80: lower TP expectations, tighten risk, avoid stretching targets in fast moves.
FGI 20–<80: keep R:R discipline and entry/exit rules; heavy strategy shifts are usually unnecessary.
FGI <20: statistically friendlier backdrop, but sample is still limited—execution and drawdown control come first.
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