tariff

🚨 The entire market could be shaken next week.
Stocks and crypto could face one of the most dangerous combinations of news seen in months.
Two major events are happening simultaneously:
1) New Trump tariffs on Europe
2) Supreme Court ruling on tariffs
Both will hit at the same time when markets reopen.
This could cause extreme volatility.
Over the weekend, Trump announced new 10% tariffs on the EU.
This is the first major tariff increase in almost three months.
The last time we had a major tariff shock, on October 10th:
- The S&P 500 plummeted
- Crypto experienced its biggest drop in five years
This is not minor news, as these EU tariffs threaten approximately $1.5 trillion in trade flows.
And here's why it could get even worse.
There is now serious discussion that Europe could retaliate.
If the EU starts making trade deals with countries that the US is also sanctioning, the US risks being shut out of key trade routes.
The result would be:
- Bearish for US stocks
- Bearish for the dollar
- Bearish for global risk sentiment
Now add the second bomb.
On Tuesday, the Supreme Court is expected to rule on whether Trump's tariffs are legally valid.
They have already postponed it twice, but a decision is now expected. $AXS
The market currently believes the court will rule against him. This creates two dangerous scenarios:
If the court rules against Trump:
- This means his tariffs are legally vulnerable.
- It undermines confidence in policy stability.
- The stock market has been rising on the expectation of tariffs. $FRAX
- That expectation could quickly evaporate.
- The likelihood of a massive sell-off increases significantly.
If the court rules in favor of Trump:
- The market will have to fully absorb the impact of the EU tariffs.
- Trade disruptions will become a reality.
- Growth risks will increase.
- Stocks and cryptocurrencies will still face significant pressure. $ME
Both scenarios are bad for risk assets.
That's why next week is so dangerous.
The markets are heading towards:
- A major tariff shock
- A legal ruling that could alter policy credibility
And you need to be prepared for some extreme volatility. #MarketRebound #TARIFF

マクロ市場、リスク資産、コモディティ、そして暗号資産のセンチメントに影響を与える可能性のある重要な進展が進行中です：
🔥 1) 米国、イランと取引を行う国に対して25％の関税を課す
トランプ大統領は、イランと取引を行う国々が米国との貿易に対して即時に25％の関税を支払う必要があると発表しました。これは、国内の激しい混乱が続く中でテヘランを経済的に孤立させる包括的な措置です。
この政策は中国、インド、アラブ首長国連邦、トルコ、イラクといった主要経済国に影響を及ぼし、グローバルなサプライチェーンを再編する可能性があります。

🚨 財政の崖：1月14日が世界規模のデリバージングイベントを引き起こす可能性
市場は細いロープの上を歩いている状態であり、ほとんど誰も下を向いていません。ニュースの見出しは政治的な演劇に注目している一方で、最高裁判所は、昨年1年間、財務省の収益予想を支えてきた関税構造に重い打撃を加える予定です。
これらの関税が明日取り消された場合、私たちは単なる政策の変更を見ているのではなく、システム全体の流動性の枯渇を見ているのです。
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