Bitcoin's "quantum death sentence" refers to the potential future scenario where sufficiently advanced quantum computers could use Shor's algorithm to break the underlying elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) that secures Bitcoin transactions. This would allow attackers to potentially steal funds from vulnerable addresses by deriving private keys from exposed public keys.
The "fix already hidden in the code" refers to current built-in Bitcoin features and ongoing development efforts for a coordinated transition to post-quantum cryptography, such as using hash-based address formats and planned soft forks.
Wall Street Rift
Jefferies, represented by Christopher Wood, recently eliminated its Bitcoin exposure, citing the existential threat of quantum computing as a disqualifying factor for long-term, pension-style capital, arguing that a hedge requiring a contentious protocol upgrade is not the same as physical gold.
ARK Invest, represented by Cathie Wood, counters this by urging investors to focus on Bitcoin's lack of correlation with traditional markets, viewing it as an evolving asset that can adapt to future challenges. They argue that traditional finance may face greater near-term peril from quantum threats.
Key Insights
Vulnerability: The primary risk lies with older or reused "pay-to-public-key" (P2PK) addresses, where the public key is permanently exposed on the blockchain. An estimated 4 million to 6.5 million BTC are held in such vulnerable addresses.
Mitigation Measures in the Code:
P2PKH (Pay-To-Public-Key-Hash) addresses offer partial protection because the public key is only revealed during a transaction, creating a narrow window of vulnerability (around 10 minutes for a transaction to be mined).
Taproot (P2TR) addresses are also more quantum-resistant and designed to be compatible with future upgrades.
Developer Proposals: Active proposals, like the one by developer Hunter Beast, exist to introduce a quantum-resistant public key system via a soft fork, which would require users to move funds to new, secure addresses.
The Path Forward
The long-term solution involves migrating the entire network to new post-quantum cryptography (PQC) standards, likely through a soft fork. The challenge lies in achieving global consensus within the decentralized Bitcoin community and the significant increase in transaction data size that PQC algorithms currently entail.
While experts agree a sufficiently powerful quantum computer is likely years, if not decades, away, the time to prepare is now, as coordination and implementation of an upgrade will take time.
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