globaltrade

China closed 2025 with a trade surplus of $1.19 trillion, commonly rounded by markets to $1.2 trillion, setting a new global record that no other economy has ever reached.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s exports rose 6.6% year over year in December in U.S. dollar terms, far above market expectations of around 3% and faster than November’s 5.9% increase.
Imports also surprised to the upside. December imports climbed 5.7%, beating forecasts of just 0.9% and marking the strongest growth since September, when imports rose 7.4%, according to LSEG data. For the full year, exports increased 5.5%, imports were broadly flat, and China finished 2025 with a trade surplus about 20% larger than in 2024.

China–U.S. Trade Continues to Shrink
Trade with the United States continued to weaken. Chinese shipments to the U.S. fell 30% year over year in December, extending losses for a ninth consecutive month, while imports from the U.S. dropped 29% over the same period, customs data showed.
For all of 2025, China’s exports to the U.S. declined 20%, while imports from the U.S. fell 14.6%. Customs spokesperson Lv Daliang commented that trade relations should remain mutually beneficial, calling for dialogue and negotiations to resolve disputes and expand cooperation.

Europe and Southeast Asia Take a Larger Role
By contrast, trade with other regions remained strong. Exports to the European Union rose 12% in December, while shipments to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) increased 11%. Imports from European countries jumped 18%, while purchases from Southeast Asia fell 5%, keeping the overall trade balance firmly tilted in China’s favor.

Global Concerns Over the Size of the Surplus
The scale of China’s surplus has raised alarms internationally. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged Beijing in December to rely less on exports and accelerate efforts to boost domestic consumption.
Chinese officials said they plan to increase imports and pursue more balanced trade, but challenges remain. The nearly $19 trillion economy continues to face deflationary pressure, driven by a deep downturn in the property market, weaker household spending, a soft labor market, and fragile consumer confidence. Consumer prices stagnated through 2025, falling short of the official 2% target.

Limited Easing of Tensions With Washington
Signs of easing tensions with Washington remain modest. In October, Chinese President met with Donald Trump, who became the 47th President of the United States after winning the 2024 election. Talks resulted in a one-year trade truce, partial rollbacks of export controls, and adjustments to tariffs. Beijing also pledged to purchase at least 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans within two months.
Official data showed soybean imports totaled 111.8 million tons in 2025, up 6.5% year over year. December soybean imports rose 1.3% to 8 million tons. Exports of rare earths jumped 32% in December to 4,392 tons, while full-year shipments of the strategic minerals increased 12.9%.

Outlook: GDP and Commodity Signals
China is set to release annual GDP figures and fourth-quarter data on Monday. Economists expect Q4 growth of 4.5%, below the 5% growth target set by President Xi.
Iron ore also posted record trade figures, with China’s imports rising 1.8% to a record 1.26 billion tons in 2025—the third consecutive year of growth. However, rising stockpiles at ports in recent months suggest steel mill demand is starting to lag, pointing to emerging imbalances in the economy despite the record trade surplus.

#china , #GlobalTrade , #economy , #TRUMP , #worldnews

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