$BTC Crypto analyst Tyrex believes that Bitcoin may be approaching a critical turning point if the current uptrend fails to hold. In his latest BTC price outlook on X, he compares the current market structure to the April 2022 cycle, when Bitcoin made an ATH and then crashed hard for weeks.
Tyrex disclosed that Bitcoin dropped roughly 45% from its all-time high in 2022 before entering an extended consolidation phase that lasted nearly four months. The accompanying chart shows that during that period, prices respected clear horizontal boundaries, creating a false sense of strength and stability, all while underlying weakness continued to build.
That consolidation eventually led to an upside fakeout, with the Bitcoin price briefly breaking resistance before reversing sharply. Unfortunately, the rejection triggered a continuation of the broader downtrend that year, resulting in another aggressive price crash that wiped out remaining bullish confidence.
According to Tyrex, BTC’s current chart structure closely mirrors the same historical setup from 2022. Bitcoin has once again pulled back sharply after reaching an all-time high of over $126,000. Additionally, the cryptocurrency has spent roughly two months consolidating within a defined range, repeatedly stalling at resistance levels.
Tyrex warns that Bitcoin is barely holding above $95,000, which aligns with the resistance zone shown on the chart. If price fails to recover and continues to stall near this level, the move higher could turn out to be a fakeout, potentially leading to another sharp dump— just as it did in 2022. The red-shaded area on the chart shows how far BTC could crash if the uptrend breaks, with the analyst projecting an 11.04% drop to the $86,000-$84,000 range.
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