BTC: Market Peak or Just a Breather? Analyzing Realized Price Metrics 📊
While the market debates whether we’ve reached the top, on-chain researcher MorenoDV_ provides a crucial insight: Bitcoin’s current price action is a redistribution phase, not the end of the cycle.
What’s happening "under the hood"?
By using the Realized Price metric across UTXO age bands, we can see who is in profit and who is feeling the heat:
✅ Short-Term Holders (1 week – 3 months) are sitting pretty. Their entry price ranges from $89,255 to $93,504. Since the spot price remains higher, we aren't seeing panic selling from newcomers—they are rewarded, not punished.
⚠️ Medium-Term Holders (3 – 12 months) represent the main "tension zone." Their Realized Price sits between $100,748 and $114,808. This group is currently in a "paper loss," but importantly, there is no sign of aggressive capitulation. They are absorbing the pressure by waiting rather than forced selling.
What does this mean for the market?
The risk of a sharp, impulsive crash is lowered because the most recent buyers aren't underwater.The key trigger for a trend continuation is reclaiming the $100,748 level (the 6–12 month group’s price). This would shift sentiment from "holding at a loss" to "neutral," reducing the urge to sell into rallies.
The Bottom Line: We are seeing a redistribution of risk, not a structural trend reversal. As long as medium-term holders view this as a temporary discomfort rather than a signal to exit, the upside remains open. 🚀
Do you think we’ll break $100k soon, or will medium-term holders start selling at break-even? Let us know in the comments! 👇
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