According to BlockBeats, on January 14, Ed Clissold, Chief U.S. Strategist at Ned Davis Research, introduced the term 'Big MAC' trading, which stands for 'Big Midterms Are Coming.' This concept encapsulates his view of the core theme for the U.S. stock market in 2026: the policy directions surrounding the upcoming congressional elections and their potential impacts.
U.S. President Donald Trump has been actively issuing policy statements at the beginning of the year, indicating his focus on enhancing the Republican Party's chances in the November elections. His policy initiatives are targeting the widely discussed issue of 'affordability challenges' in the U.S. These moves could have significant implications for the stock market. For instance, last week's market performance was affected when Trump called for credit card issuers to cap interest rates at 10%, less than half the current average rate, leading to a sharp decline in bank stocks. Additionally, his directive for defense companies to halt dividend payments and reinvest in production resulted in a downturn for the defense sector. Furthermore, recent government criticism of the Federal Reserve's independence caused widespread panic on Wall Street on Monday.
Clissold noted in his report that policy adjustments targeting specific industries pose a significant risk ahead of the midterm elections, and the market is currently uncertain about how to hedge against such risks.