TL;DR
Bitcoin shows signs of a structural adjustment following recent volatility, according to on-chain indicators such as the NVT Golden Cross.
Analysts view this phase as a normalization of valuations rather than a market top.
While gold trades above $4,420 and attracts defensive flows, historical data offers no consistent evidence of sustained capital rotation from precious metals into Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is moving through a phase that analysts describe as a deeper reset rather than a breakdown in its long-term outlook. Recent on-chain data suggests the market is absorbing prior excesses after months of volatility, with valuation metrics pointing toward stabilization. For Bitcoin, this adjustment phase has often appeared well before renewed expansion phases, reinforcing the view that current conditions remain constructive for the asset’s broader cycle.
As gold has just set a new all-time high above $4,420 per ounce, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the capital rotation toward Bitcoin narrative back in force.
This is one of the narratives we’ve heard a lot during this cycle, yet it isn’t really well grounded.
I built this… pic.twitter.com/d6kcKI2kLN
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) December 22, 2025
Market observers note that Bitcoin recently emerged from an extended period of relative undervaluation. Several indicators now show the network entering a more balanced state, where speculative pressure eases and long-term holders gradually regain influence. This transition historically shaped the foundation for healthier price discovery rather than abrupt upside moves.
Bitcoin On-Chain Signals Point To Structural Reset
One of the most cited indicators is the Network Value to Transactions Golden Cross, which compares market capitalization to transaction activity. Analysts observe that similar readings followed prior capitulation events, when short-term participants exited and longer-horizon capital stepped in. Current data mirrors those past patterns, pointing to recalibration instead of overheating.
Historical comparisons show these resets often occurred after intense drawdowns and extended consolidation. In most cases, Bitcoin did not reach a cycle peak during this phase. Instead, the asset spent weeks or months repairing valuation imbalances while network usage remained resilient. According to CryptoQuant data, present conditions align with normalization periods rather than speculative extremes.
Gold Rally Raises Questions About Capital Flows
As Bitcoin consolidates ($88,125), gold continues to draw attention after climbing above $4,420 per ounce. This move revived debates about whether capital might shift from traditional safe havens into digital assets. Some investors frame Bitcoin as an alternative store of value, yet empirical evidence remains mixed.
Analyst Darkfost reviewed historical price behavior by comparing Bitcoin and gold relative to their 180-day moving averages. The analysis shows that periods where Bitcoin outperformed gold did not follow a consistent or repeatable pattern. In several cycles, both assets advanced or declined independently, influenced more by liquidity conditions and macroeconomic signals than by direct capital rotation.
