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$FIL — Rally Extended, Rejection Risk Rising Near Key Supply
Bias: ⚠️ Short-term bearish / pullback expected after overextension
Market Structure
FIL has shifted from a short-term downtrend into a recovery move, forming higher lows from the $1.43 base. However, price is now pressing into a prior supply zone after a sharp impulse, showing signs of exhaustion rather than clean continuation. Structure favors a pause or corrective leg unless resistance is reclaimed with volume.
🚧Key Levels
Resistance: $1.58–1.60 (local high + sell pressure)
Major Resistance: $1.68–1.70 (HTF rejection zone)
Support: $1.52–1.50 (intraday demand)
Major Support: $1.46–1.43 (range low / value area)
Momentum & Indicators
RSI: Overbought (RSI6 > 77) → pullback risk elevated
Bollinger Bands: Price riding above upper band → mean reversion likely
MACD & EMAs: Still bullish, but momentum is slowing near resistance
Volume & Flow
Volume expanded on the push up, but follow-through is weakening near $1.58
Order book shows active sellers above spot, while bids cluster lower
Money flow remains distributed (low concentration), reducing squeeze potential
🦘Trade Plan (Short-term, Tactical)
Entry (Short): $1.58–1.60 zone
Stop-Loss: $1.66
Targets:
TP1: $1.52
TP2: $1.47
Invalidation: Strong acceptance above $1.60 with rising volume
💬Summary
FIL’s trend recovery remains intact on higher timeframes, but short-term conditions are overheated. Unless buyers reclaim $1.60 decisively, odds favor a healthy pullback toward demand before any sustainable continuation.
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