TSMC announced 2026 capex of US$52–56bn at today’s earnings call, with strong Nvidia demand as the key driver.
1. Ahead of the call, sell-side analysts and media generally expected 2026 capex of US$45–52bn, while the buy side was already at US$53–56bn.
2. TSMC is typically conservative on capex guidance, so final 2026 spending is very likely to beat buy-side pre-call expectations.
3. Most customers negotiate for guaranteed capacity. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang negotiates for land. In November last year, he visited Tainan and told TSMC he was willing to pay to secure the reserved P10 and P11 land next to Fab 18. At the time, Fab 18 plans were only clearly defined for P1–P9, and Jensen Huang’s ultimate goal was to secure the P12 land as well.
4. Before Huang raised the idea of securing P10 and P11 land, buy-side consensus for TSMC’s 2026 capex was US$45–50bn.
5. Even with tight advanced-node and packaging capacity, TSMC stays highly disciplined on demand approval, often approving less than customers’ most optimistic requests. Want the most aggressive capacity? Put more cash down, book the land, and pay to grow capacity—just as Huang did. That said, with resources increasingly constrained across the board, even if other customers try to follow Huang’s playbook, securing the most aggressive capacity is becoming harder and harder.
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