SYP_

Ada 會到哪呢#ada

Hi 大家好久沒發文了🥹🥹

厲害👍🏻

太強了

以太坊創下歷史新高後回落 7%，比特幣也自高點下跌超過 10%。
以太坊的成長動能來自於其在 DeFi、NFT 與智慧合約上的獨特應用價值，企業開始將 ETH 納入資產，機構投資人如 Peter Thiel 也積極布局。
然而，市場波動劇烈，僅三天內市值蒸發 2000 億美元，加上投機氛圍濃厚，引發可持續性的疑慮。
若未來以太坊能成功成為華爾街數位金融基礎建設（資產代幣化、借貸），當前的價格水平可能只是長期成長的起點。
#ETH创历史新高

太開心了

Glassnode 指出，就連「小額」和「中額」的 BTC 錢包買進的比特幣數量，也已經超過礦工新挖出的數量。

作者認為，未來可能會出現一次非常深的 long squeeze（多單擠壓），用來回收市場上的流動性。因為價格不可能永遠往上漲，就像 S&P 500 雖然長期看漲，但中間也會有大幅下跌再反彈。BTC 圖表上，2025 年已經形成多個大型流動性區域，而今年以來只有一次 30% 的重大回調（回收了 2024 年的流動性），之後市場又累積了很大的不平衡。

3年多了🥺

A quick update on Ethereum:

the price broke below the $3,526 support level (which was the bottom of its recent trading range) and closed under it, signaling that the previous upward trend has been broken.

On Friday, ETH tested the risk zone around $3,430 and has now returned to that level, which increases the chances of further decline.

If ETH breaks below $3,430 in the coming days and fails to bounce back, there’s a good chance it could drop all the way to around $3,030.

Unless some strong bullish news appears and turns things around, there’s currently no clear sign of a rebound.

That’s why I’m only putting in a small amount of capital for now, slowly building a position while watching the market. The trend is weak at the moment, but if prices fall to a stronger support zone, it might present a good buying opportunity — better to manage risk with small entries first.

Everyone okay?🥸

加油

1. Resistance Zone: You’re noting the range around $73,500-$75,000 as a strong resistance level. This is a crucial point where Bitcoin’s price has faced challenges, and breaking above it could lead to significant market reactions, including potential panic from sellers.
2. Liquidity Interest: The liquidity above this resistance hasn’t vanished, meaning there is still market interest in this area. The price might test this zone again, reinforcing its relevance.
3. Support Level: The $69,500 level is a local high from a previous wave and acts as an important support level. If Bitcoin breaks below this point and consolidates, selling pressure may increase, potentially leading to further declines.
4. False Breakout and Consolidation: You’re noting that if there’s a false breakout, where the price briefly dips below $69,500 but doesn’t consolidate there, it might prevent further sell-offs

The US dollar index continues to reach new heights. Several factors have contributed to the growth of the US currency, particularly the prospects of a gradual reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve and the strength of the US economy.

Of particular historical interest is the ongoing election. Markets appear to be factoring in a potential Trump victory, with what is being called the “Trump trade.” But what does this mean? Forex traders are betting on Donald Trump’s win in the November election and are positioning their portfolios based on his economic policies, which are seen as favorable to the US dollar. As the November 5 election date approaches, dollar volatility is expected to increase significantly.

Since the end of last month, the US dollar has risen by approximately 4%, largely due to the strong September employment report. This has contributed to a more stable outlook for lower interest rates. So, what might change under a possible Trump presidency? Analysts have highlighted Trump’s plans to impose tariffs on imports, a move that could lead to higher inflation and consequently higher interest rates.

US - PPI (September)
mom = 0% (previously +0.2%)
y/y = +1.8% (previously +1.7%)

core PPI = +2.8% yoy ( previously +2.4%)

Bitcoin failed to test resistance and consolidate within the bullish zone or buy zone. The market is not yet showing strong bullish signals. Recently, there has been negative news related to hacks, scams, and manipulations, which will have a temporary but adverse impact on the market.

The price reversed exactly in the zone I highlighted. At the moment, the price has moved up by almost $4K, or 6%. 🔥

US - CPI (September)

m/m = +0.2% (expected +0.1%)
y/y = +2.4% (expected +2.3%)

Core CPI = +3.3% y/y (expected +3.2%)
----------------
US - Initial Jobless Claims = 258k (expected 231k)

Bitcoin has surged to a two-month high of $66,000, stirring excitement among crypto enthusiasts, just as $8.1 billion worth of option contracts are set to expire today. This event has not only heightened investor anxiety but also triggered a market jolt.

Of the $8.1 billion in expiring bitcoin options, $4.9 billion comprises call options, which allow traders to purchase bitcoin at a predetermined price. The remaining $3.2 billion consists of put options, giving holders the right to sell the asset at a set price. Interestingly, at current market prices, about 28% of call options and 9% of put options are “in the money.”

Approximately 55% of call options have an exercise price of $70,000 or higher, suggesting that about $2.7 billion could become worthless if bitcoin’s price remains below this level. Meanwhile, 69% of put options are priced at $56,000 or below, meaning $2.2 billion is unlikely to be exercised. Based on current prices, bulls are positioned to gain approximately $1 billion upon the expiration of the option contracts.

#BTCUSD rose to a three-week high of $61,300 on Tuesday, but the price remains within a sideways channel. The market is indecisive, with a key event looming: the FOMC & FED meeting.

Interest rate levels may have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency community, particularly Bitcoin, which is in high demand on Wall Street and among retail traders.

Today's rate decision is a major event that could heavily influence the outlook for crypto assets. The U.S. Federal Reserve is poised to launch its rate-cutting program, lowering borrowing costs for the first time in four years. However, the extent of the rate cut has yet to be disclosed.

Bitcoin is currently trailing behind the average price trajectory seen after previous halvings. If historical patterns hold, Bitcoin's price could range between $140,000 and $4.5 million, though it's still too early to make definitive predictions.

On the adoption front, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw a net outflow of $707 million last week, reflecting the difference between capital inflows and outflows in these investment vehicles. Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, also underperformed during this period.

Recently, we discussed Bitcoin (#BTC), and I mentioned the possibility of a drop from 56K. We tested 52K, resulting in a +7% move.

Despite this, the coin continues to show weakness. The counter-trend pullback (relative to the local trend) may conclude with a continuation of the decline, driven by shifting sentiment and ongoing buying activity.

Currently, there are no signals on the chart suggesting active growth. From a technical perspective, a potentially interesting target lies in the 50-49K range. Additionally, the Fed rate cut remains a key factor on the agenda for September.

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