The Cryptonomist

With crypto risk appetite still constructive and BTC dominance elevated above 57%, Ethereum price is pressing into a crucial resistance pocket between $3,300 and $3,400.

ETH/USDT — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.

Daily chart: Ethereum bias is bullish, but getting extended

On the daily timeframe, Ethereum price (ETHUSDT) is trading at $3,362, comfortably above all its key moving averages and near the upper edge of its recent volatility envelope.

Trend structure – EMAs

– Price: $3,362
– EMA 20: $3,153.68
– EMA 50: $3,149.85
– EMA 200: $3,297.05

All three EMAs are clustered below spot, with the 20- and 50-day essentially on top of each other and both now slightly above the 200-day. This is a constructive setup: the short and medium trend have flipped clearly bullish and have just reclaimed the long-term trend line. Moreover, it means recent dips have been consistently bought and the path of least resistance is still up. The gap between price and the 20/50 EMAs, though, is getting wide enough that a pullback to visit those averages would be normal rather than a sign of trend failure.

Momentum – RSI

– RSI (14d): 66.45

Daily RSI is pushing into the high 60s, just below textbook overbought territory. Buyers are clearly dominant, but we are no longer in the stealth accumulation zone; this is a late-phase impulse inside the uptrend. Historically, RSI in the mid-to-high 60s can sustain for some time in strong markets, but it also marks the zone where failed breakouts often start. That said, upside is still open, but the reward-to-risk for fresh, unhedged longs is less attractive than it was a week ago.

Trend quality – MACD

– MACD line: 66.52
– Signal line: 38.42
– Histogram: 28.09

MACD on the daily is firmly positive with the line comfortably above the signal and a solid positive histogram. That confirms the trend is not just a short squeeze; it is a sustained bullish leg. However, the distance between MACD and its signal is now fairly stretched, which often precedes momentum cooling or at least a sideways digestion. Bulls are in control, but the easy money phase of this leg is likely behind us.

Volatility & range – Bollinger Bands and ATR

– Bollinger middle band (20d): $3,120.95
– Upper band: $3,386.33
– Lower band: $2,855.56
– ATR (14d): $114.83

Ethereum price is hugging the upper Bollinger Band, sitting just a few dollars below it. That is classic late-stage momentum behavior: the trend is healthy, but price is living at the higher end of its recent volatility range. With a daily ATR of roughly $115, the market is signalling that a normal one-day swing of 3–4% in either direction is perfectly on the table. Trading near the upper band plus elevated ATR is a textbook setup for sharp intraday reversals if liquidity thins or BTC sneezes.

Short-term levels – daily pivots

– Pivot point (PP): $3,339.58
– R1: $3,401.17
– S1: $3,300.42

Spot is just above the daily pivot, trading between the pivot and R1. This is a mildly bullish intraday posture: buyers have defended the pivot and are probing overhead resistance. The key micro-battlefield on the daily is the $3,300–3,400 pocket. Holding above the pivot and turning R1 into support would keep the upward grind intact; slipping back below $3,300 would signal that this push is losing steam, at least temporarily.

Daily conclusion: The main scenario on the daily chart is bullish. Trend, momentum, and structure all support further upside, but the market is stretched enough that a pullback or sideways consolidation would be a healthy reset, not a shock.

1-hour chart: bullish, but momentum is flattening

The 1-hour timeframe is where you see the first signs of this leg getting a little tired. The trend is still up, but momentum is no longer exploding.

Trend structure – EMAs

– Price: $3,361.12
– EMA 20: $3,334.31
– EMA 50: $3,293.06
– EMA 200: $3,196.83
– Regime: bullish

Price is above all key intraday EMAs, with a clean staircase higher: 20 > 50 > 200 and spot above the 20. This is as straightforward a 1H uptrend as you will get. The distance from the 200 EMA is sizable, which confirms strength but also shows how far we have come without a proper 1H mean reversion. Consequently, short-term traders buying here are paying a premium versus the base of the move, which increases the risk of getting caught in a snap-back to the 50 or 200.

Momentum – RSI

– RSI (14h): 60.03

Hourly RSI is sitting around 60, a moderate bullish reading. The strong overbought readings are gone; this is more of a controlled grind than a runaway rally. That is constructive for trend continuity, but it also says the immediate upside impulse is no longer as strong as it was. Bulls are still dictating direction, just with less urgency.

Trend quality – MACD

– MACD line: 13.13
– Signal line: 12.91
– Histogram: 0.22

On the 1H, MACD remains slightly positive, but the line is almost glued to the signal and the histogram is close to flat. Momentum is still leaning bullish, yet there is no strong acceleration. This is what you typically see before one of two things: either a renewed push higher if buyers step back in, or a slow roll-over into a consolidation or shallow pullback.

Volatility & bands – Bollinger Bands and ATR

– Bollinger middle band: $3,341.34
– Upper band: $3,392.77
– Lower band: $3,289.91
– ATR (14h): $24.39

ETH is trading slightly above the mid-band on the hourly. The prior squeeze into the upper band has already cooled off, and price is now oscillating in the upper half of the band structure. With an hourly ATR around $24, intraday swings of roughly 0.7% are business as usual. This portrays a controlled advance rather than a blow-off move, but it also leaves room for a quick tag of either band if BTC injects volatility.

Intraday levels – hourly pivots

– Pivot point (PP): $3,362.71
– R1: $3,364.29
– S1: $3,359.53

Price is almost exactly on the hourly pivot cluster. R1 and S1 are compressed just a few dollars away, signalling a narrow equilibrium zone intraday. This is a market waiting for a catalyst. A clean break and hold above the $3,365 area opens the door for another attempt at the daily R1 region; slipping under $3,360 and holding below into the session would put the short-term focus back on support closer to the hourly 50 EMA around $3,290.

1H conclusion: Bullish regime, but momentum is flattening and the market is trading around an intraday equilibrium. ETH is in drift up or consolidate mode rather than a fresh breakout phase on this timeframe.

15-minute chart: tactical execution, micro uptrend

The 15-minute chart is mainly useful for timing, not for deciding directional bias. Right now it aligns with the higher timeframes, but it is more stretched.

Trend structure – EMAs

– Price: $3,361.19
– EMA 20: $3,344.96
– EMA 50: $3,335.87
– EMA 200: $3,291.57
– Regime: bullish

Price is stacked above all 15m EMAs with a clear positive alignment. The spread between spot and the 20/50 EMAs is modest, but the distance to the 200 EMA is substantial. In practice, that means the micro-trend is intact, yet the true value area of this whole short-term leg is far below current price. Any sudden volatility spike can quickly drag price back toward the 50 or even 200 EMA without doing real damage to the higher timeframes.

Momentum – RSI

– RSI (14, 15m): 64.33

On the 15-minute chart, RSI sits in a bullish but not extreme zone, very similar to the daily reading in character. Short-term, buyers are still pressing their advantage after recent upticks, but they are dancing close to levels where local pullbacks often emerge. It is an intraday environment where chasing green candles becomes riskier than buying controlled dips.

Trend quality – MACD

– MACD line: 12.11
– Signal line: 8.91
– Histogram: 3.19

On the 15-minute chart, MACD is clearly positive with a decent gap above its signal and a solid positive histogram. This is one of the few places where momentum is still visibly expanding. Very short-term, that favors continuation higher, but remember that lower timeframes flip first. If the histogram starts contracting while price fails to make new highs, that would be an early warning of intraday exhaustion.

Micro-volatility & pivots

– Bollinger middle band: $3,339.85
– Upper band: $3,379.78
– Lower band: $3,299.93
– ATR (14, 15m): $11.28
– Pivot point (PP): $3,362.73
– R1: $3,364.34
– S1: $3,359.58

ETH is trading just under the 15m pivot with bands wide enough to support $10–15 swings without changing the picture. ATR at $11 points to roughly 0.3% noise per 15 minutes, which is enough to stop out tight intraday trades but not yet a sign of panic. The clustering of the 15m and 1H pivots in the $3,360 area reinforces this region as the immediate tug-of-war level between scalp bulls and bears.

Market context: risk-on, BTC-dominant backdrop

Beyond Ethereum’s own chart, the macro crypto backdrop is constructive but not without risk. Total crypto market cap is around $3.36T and rising, yet 24h volume is down roughly 5%. BTC dominates at about 57.5%, with ETH sitting near 12% of total market cap. The setup is strong risk appetite, but capital is still heavily Bitcoin-centric.

The fear and greed index at 61 (Greed) confirms what the charts already imply: the market is leaning risk-on, but we are transitioning from bargain hunting into momentum chasing. In that phase, Ethereum often lags initial BTC impulses but then plays catch-up aggressively, which aligns with the current technical picture of a strong but slightly overextended trend.

Bullish scenario for Ethereum price

From the current configuration, the dominant scenario remains bullish, but it relies on the trend staying intact across timeframes.

What bulls want to see

On the daily, bulls want Ethereum price to hold above the $3,300 area, which roughly aligns with the daily S1 at $3,300.42 and sits comfortably above the 20/50 EMAs near $3,150. As long as ETH defends that higher-low structure, the uptrend remains clean. A sustained push through the daily R1 at $3,401.17 would likely trigger trend-followers and could send price probing the upper Bollinger Band and beyond.

On intraday charts, a decisive move above the $3,365–3,380 pocket, the 15m and 1H R1 region overlapping with the upper intraday bands, with rising RSI and expanding MACD histogram would signal another leg of momentum. In that case, daily RSI can easily ride into the low-70s before any significant correction, and ATR would frame 4–5% daily ranges as part of an ongoing trend rather than a top.

Bullish path, in plain terms: defend $3,300 on dips, convert $3,400 from resistance into support, and ride the trend while daily EMAs continue to slope up beneath price.

What invalidates the bullish case?

The bullish structure starts to crack if Ethereum price breaks and closes the day below the $3,300 zone and then loses the daily 20/50 EMAs clustered around $3,150. A daily close back under the 200 EMA at $3,297.05 would be the first serious warning the current leg has topped for now.

On intraday charts, an early warning would be 1H price slipping below the 50 EMA, near $3,293, with MACD turning negative and RSI failing to recover above 50 on bounces. That would mark a shift from trend with pullbacks into range or distribution. In that environment, daily MACD would likely start rolling over from its elevated level, confirming waning momentum.

Bearish scenario for Ethereum price

The bearish case does not dominate yet, but the ingredients for a corrective phase are in place: extended daily momentum, euphoric positioning creeping in, and ETH trading near the upper end of its volatility envelope.

What bears need

First, bears need to win the $3,300–3,340 battle. A break and sustained trade below the daily pivot at $3,339.58, followed by loss of S1 at $3,300.42, would signal buyers stepping back. With daily ATR at roughly $115, once that pocket gives way, a slide into the $3,200–$3,230 area is a routine move, not an outlier. That zone sits closer to the 200 EMA and would test the conviction of medium-term bulls.

If selling accelerates and ETH closes a daily candle below the 20/50 EMAs, around $3,150, sentiment will likely flip from buy the dip to wait and see. MACD would start to compress toward its signal line; if it crosses lower while RSI breaks under 50, the narrative shifts decisively from trending market to corrective market on the daily timeframe.

On lower timeframes, the first tactical signal for bears would be successive failures at the $3,365–3,400 area with 15m and 1H MACD diverging, meaning price making similar or lower highs while MACD and RSI roll over. That pattern often leads to a fast mean reversion into the 1H 50 EMA or even the 200 EMA, effectively flushing late longs without necessarily ending the higher-timeframe trend.

Bearish path, in plain terms: reject $3,365–3,400, lose $3,300, then pressure the $3,150–$3,200 support confluence. If those levels fold on a closing basis, bears gain genuine control of the tape.

What invalidates the bearish case?

The near-term bearish scenario is invalidated if Ethereum price can consolidate above $3,400, turning that region into a stable floor rather than a ceiling. If price can repeatedly test higher levels without dragging RSI back below 50 on the daily and while MACD stays comfortably positive, any dips are more likely to be routine pullbacks within a continuing uptrend, not the start of a broader reversal.

How to think about positioning from here

Ethereum is in a bullish phase on the daily chart, supported by an uptrending structure and constructive macro crypto conditions. At the same time, it is trading close to the upper edge of its recent range with stretched daily momentum and a market sentiment profile tilted toward greed. That mix usually favors positioning that respects the trend but is honest about downside risk.

For directional traders, the key is timeframe discipline: the daily signal is still up, but the 1H and 15m show a maturing leg rather than a fresh breakout. This argues against aggressive new longs at market unless you are comfortable sitting through a potential pullback toward the daily EMAs. In practical terms, it is more rational to focus on how ETH behaves around $3,300 support and $3,400 resistance than to anchor on a specific price target.

Volatility is elevated but not extreme: a $100+ daily range is normal right now. That means both upside and downside moves can be sharp enough to trigger emotional decisions if size and leverage are not calibrated. Tight stops in noisy intraday zones like $3,360 can get harvested easily, while very wide stops can turn a tactical trade into an unintended swing position.

The honest read: Ethereum price is bullish until it is not, but the odds of a shakeout or sideways digestion are meaningfully higher now than they were earlier in the leg. Being aware of the key inflection levels, specifically $3,300 support, $3,400 resistance, and $3,150–$3,200 as deeper support, and respecting the current volatility regime matters more than trying to nail the next $50 move.

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Disclaimer: This article is a technical and market-structure analysis, not investment advice. Markets are volatile and unpredictable; always do your own research, consider your risk tolerance, and never rely solely on a single analysis or indicator when making trading decisions.

In his latest analysis on shifting macro conditions, arthur hayes lays out a case for a 2026 bitcoin liquidity rebound after a difficult 2025.

From 2025 underperformance to a 2026 liquidity turn

Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, argues that Bitcoin‘s weak performance in 2025 was not a verdict on so-called crypto narratives but a straightforward dollar-credit story. Instead, he frames the year as a test of how markets react when US dollar liquidity tightens and cross-asset correlations break down.

According to Hayes, Bitcoin lagged both gold and US tech stocks through 2025, even as it still behaved “as expected” under tightening financial conditions. However, he notes that this divergence did not invalidate the idea of Bitcoin as either digital gold or a high-beta proxy for tech, but rather exposed how those labels can be misleading when liquidity shrinks.

Hayes points out that, in his view, the real story was that Bitcoin underperformed while gold and the Nasdaq 100 rose for different structural reasons, despite falling dollar liquidity. That said, he stresses that this performance gap sets the stage for 2026, when he expects conditions to reverse.

Gold, AI equities and the liquidity puzzle

On gold, Hayes argues that the bid is now dominated by sovereign balance sheets rather than retail speculation. Moreover, he links the metal’s strength to growing distrust of US Treasury exposure following past episodes where assets were frozen, highlighting that central banks behave as price-insensitive buyers.

He sums up this risk bluntly: “If the US president steals your money, it’s an instant zero. Does it then matter what price you buy gold at?” In this framing, gold demand is less about short-term trading and more about hedging political and sanctions risk.

Turning to equities, Hayes leans into an industrial-policy reading of the AI trade. He claims the US and China both treat “winning AI” as a strategic objective, which dulls normal market discipline and helps explain why the Nasdaq decoupled from his dollar-liquidity index in 2025. However, this decoupling is precisely what leads him back to liquidity as the main variable for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin, Nasdaq and the role of dollar liquidity

Hayes writes that Bitcoin and the Nasdaq typically rise when dollar liquidity expands, and the “only problem” is the recent divergence between tech stocks and his liquidity indicators. He repeatedly returns to what he calls the “vicissitudes of dollar liquidity” as the primary driver to monitor, rather than sentiment shifts or narrative changes.

In his view, the key takeaway for 2026 is straightforward: Bitcoin needs expanding dollar liquidity to regain momentum. Moreover, he contends that both Bitcoin and dollar liquidity bottomed at roughly the same time, arguing that the next major move will depend more on renewed credit expansion than on speculative mania.

This is where the phrase arthur hayes becomes shorthand for a broader macro thesis. He is not simply calling for higher prices; he is mapping Bitcoin’s path to the same forces that shape credit, central-bank balance sheets and government policy.

The three-pillar case for a 2026 liquidity rebound

Hayes’s 2026 outlook rests on a sharp rebound in US dollar credit creation built on three main channels. First is a growing Federal Reserve balance sheet driven by Reserve Management Purchases (RMP). Second is commercial bank lending into “strategic industries.” Third is lower mortgage rates triggered by policy-directed demand for mortgage-backed securities.

In his account, quantitative tightening faded as a major headwind in late 2025, with QT ending in December and RMP beginning as a new, steady buyer of assets. He claims RMP “at a minimum” is expanding the Fed’s balance sheet by $40 billion per month, and he expects that pace to rise as US government funding needs grow.

The second pillar is bank credit creation, which he says accelerated in 4Q25 as large lenders became more willing to extend loans into areas where government equity stakes or offtake agreements reduce default risk. However, he also flags this as a politically driven process, not a purely market-driven one.

The third pillar is housing. Hayes cites Trump-backed directives for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to deploy $200 billion toward purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Moreover, he expects this support to push mortgage rates lower, potentially rekindling a familiar wealth effect in housing and, by extension, more consumer credit.

He ties all three elements together with a simple conclusion: if liquidity turns decisively higher, Bitcoin should follow that trend. That said, he presents this as a macro timing framework rather than a promise of a straight line upward.

Adding risk: MSTR, Metaplanet and Zcash

Against this backdrop, Hayes says he is actively adding risk for 2026. He describes himself as a “degen speculator” and notes that Maelstrom is already “nearly fully invested,” yet he still wants “MOAR risk” to capture convex upside if Bitcoin reclaims higher levels.

Rather than using perpetual futures or options, Hayes is long Strategy (MSTR) and Japan’s Metaplanet to gain levered exposure via corporate balance sheets. Moreover, he views these equities as high-torque expressions of a renewed Bitcoin bull market that can outperform the underlying asset.

His timing argument rests on valuation relativity. He compares each company’s “DAT” to Bitcoin priced in the relevant currency (yen for Metaplanet and dollars for Strategy) and says those ratios are near the low end of the past two years. He notes they are “down substantially” from their mid-2025 peaks, which he views as an appealing entry zone.

Hayes adds an important trigger level: “If Bitcoin can retake $110,000, investors will get the itch to go long Bitcoin through these vehicles. Given the leverage embedded in the capital structure of these businesses, they will outperform Bitcoin on the upside.” However, he also implies that this leverage cuts both ways in a downturn.

Continued Zcash accumulation and ECC’s pivot

Alongside the equity bets, Hayes highlights continued accumulation of Zcash (ZEC). He argues that the departure of developers from Electric Coin Company (ECC) should not be read as a bearish signal for the privacy-focused network.

“We continue to add to our Zcash position. The departure of the devs at ECC is not bearish. I firmly believe they will ship better, more impactful products within their own for-profit entity. I’m thankful for the opportunity to buy discounted ZEC from weak hands,” he writes, underscoring his long-term conviction.

At press time, MSTR traded at $179.33, offering a real-time reference point for his leveraged Bitcoin-equity thesis. Moreover, this price anchors his broader argument that valuation dispersion across Bitcoin-linked assets can offer attractive entry points ahead of a possible 2026 liquidity resurgence.

Outlook: liquidity first, narratives second

Hayes’s “Frowny Cloud” essay ultimately prioritizes dollar liquidity over narratives when explaining Bitcoin’s 2025 underperformance and potential 2026 recovery. In his framework, sovereign gold buying, AI-driven industrial policy and housing support programs are all parts of the same credit cycle.

If his three-pillar view on US dollar liquidity proves correct, Bitcoin and its levered plays such as Strategy, Metaplanet and Zcash could stand to benefit disproportionately. However, as Hayes himself implies, the trade is only as strong as the next leg of credit expansion.

Investor appetite for risk assets is rising as the prospect of a sustained bitcoin rally converges with the sharp drop in U.S. Treasury bond volatility.

MOVE index hits lowest level since October 2021

The ICE BofA MOVE index, a widely tracked gauge of expected volatility in U.S. Treasury bonds over four weeks, has fallen to 58, its lowest reading since October 2021, according to TradingView. Moreover, this marks the extension of a decline that began in April last year, signaling a notably calmer backdrop for the global bond market.

The U.S. Treasury market is viewed as the cornerstone of global finance, with outstanding credit quality and an extremely low perceived risk of default. Its debt is widely deployed as collateral across loans, derivatives, and other instruments, effectively underpinning much of the world’s financial plumbing and day-to-day liquidity.

When Treasury prices swing violently, credit conditions tend to tighten and lenders become cautious, which reduces risk-taking across both the real economy and financial markets. However, when price moves are subdued, credit creation generally becomes easier, encouraging investors to allocate more capital toward riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies and growth equities.

Bitcoin trades near $96,300 as volatility sinks

The current bond market backdrop is increasingly supportive of rallies in bitcoin, which is trading around $96,300, as well as in major tech stocks. That said, this calmer environment follows a sharp reset in digital asset prices during 2022 and a powerful price recovery through 2023, underlining how macro conditions can swiftly change sentiment.

Bitcoin has already rallied about 10% since the start of the year, pushing analysts to forecast an advance beyond $100,000 for the first time since mid-November. The combination of subdued Treasury bond swings and renewed institutional interest is strengthening expectations that the ongoing bitcoin rally could extend into six-figure territory.

Correlation with Nasdaq 100 and MOVE index remains key

While some supporters describe bitcoin as digital gold, its trading history shows a closer relationship with Wall Street’s tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index. Moreover, it has generally moved in the opposite direction to the MOVE index, which tracks implied U.S. Treasury bond volatility and acts as a barometer of stress in government debt markets.

This inverse relationship with the MOVE index persisted during bitcoin’s sharp crash in 2022 and throughout the bull run that began in 2023. In practice, periods of falling bond volatility have often coincided with stronger demand for cryptocurrencies and growth shares, reinforcing the narrative that a move index decline can act as a tailwind for speculative assets.

Supportive backdrop but lingering macro risks

The current drop in Treasury volatility does not guarantee further gains, and no single signal should be treated as a flawless timing tool. However, the present mix of calmer bond markets, solid price momentum, and continued bitcoin etf inflows is adding another layer to the bullish thesis for digital assets.

Markets still face potential headwinds, especially if geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran intensify or if frustration over delays to the Clarity Act crypto regulation bill grows. Such developments could quickly reduce risk appetite, reminding traders that even a strong bitcoin rally remains vulnerable to sudden shifts in macro and policy expectations.

In summary, the lowest Treasury volatility since October 2021, as captured by the MOVE index reading of 58, is helping support the broader case for a continued upswing in bitcoin and other risk assets, even as investors stay alert to geopolitical and regulatory risks.

Amid inflation and financial uncertainty, bitcoin credit argentina is emerging as a bridge between digital savings and real-world spending for millions of users.

Argentina pushes crypto deeper into everyday finance

Argentina continues to lead global crypto adoption as citizens search for options beyond a fragile financial system. High inflation, currency depreciation, and strict banking rules have pushed millions toward digital assets. Bitcoin already serves as a popular store of value. However, using it for daily spending often forces users to sell assets they want to hold.

Lemon’s latest move directly addresses this gap by linking Bitcoin holdings with real-world credit access. The launch comes as traditional credit remains out of reach for a large part of the population. Moreover, the country faces structural financial issues that banks have struggled to solve.

Banks still require credit history, formal income proof, and long approval timelines. Many Argentines work outside formal employment structures, which leaves them excluded from basic financial tools. By allowing users to unlock peso credit through their Bitcoin holdings, Lemon removes several long-standing barriers at once and offers an alternative path to financing.

How Lemon’s Bitcoin-backed card actually works

Lemon’s new Visa card lets users access peso-denominated credit using Bitcoin as collateral. Instead of selling BTC, customers deposit it as security and receive a credit line based on the asset’s value. They can then spend pesos at any merchant that accepts Visa, just like with a traditional credit card.

Repayments also take place in pesos, so users maintain long-term exposure to Bitcoin while still covering local expenses. This structure differs sharply from prepaid crypto cards that convert assets at the point of sale. Moreover, the credit approach offers more flexibility in how and when people spend.

The credit model protects customers from mistimed asset sales during volatile markets. As Bitcoin prices rise, available credit may also expand, which rewards long-term holders. That said, users still carry market risk on their collateral. The system nonetheless removes dependence on banks while keeping familiar payment experiences.

From prepaid cards to an asset based lending argentina model

This innovation places Argentina at the center of a growing shift toward asset based lending argentina. The bitcoin backed visa card turns crypto from a passive hedge into a practical financial resource. It shows how platforms now build products around day-to-day use rather than pure speculation.

Unlike prepaid solutions, the lemon bitcoin credit card works as a revolving line of credit secured by BTC. However, the spending currency remains the peso, which keeps the experience intuitive for local users. This setup also helps merchants accept payments without touching crypto themselves.

As a result, crypto payments everyday use becomes more realistic in a market plagued by inflation. The card infrastructure sits on traditional rails such as Visa, while the funding logic draws from decentralized finance. This hybrid model could set a precedent for other emerging economies.

Why Bitcoin collateral can replace banks and credit scores

Traditional credit relies heavily on personal financial records and formal employment, which excludes millions globally. Lemon instead uses a bitcoin collateral lending model to power its new product. Bitcoin collateral guarantees repayment without demanding income statements, employment verification, or credit scores.

This approach aligns with decentralized finance principles while staying user-friendly. Moreover, it shifts control back to the borrower. Users decide how much risk they take and when to repay, within the platform’s limits.

The platform focuses on asset value rather than personal background, which reduces discrimination and bureaucracy. This structure makes credit accessible to freelancers, gig workers, and young people just entering the workforce. It also illustrates how crypto credit for argentines can function at scale.

Why this crypto credit card matters for Argentina’s economy

Argentina’s economy has struggled for years with persistent inflation and currency instability. Peso savings lose purchasing power quickly, pushing citizens toward alternative stores of value such as Bitcoin. However, liquidity for everyday expenses has remained limited for many holders.

The crypto credit card model bridges that gap by allowing users to spend without disposing of their inflation hedge. It offers peso credit with bitcoin as collateral rather than selling coins outright. That said, borrowers still need to manage volatility risk on the underlying asset.

This approach also reduces reliance on predatory lending. Many Argentines turn to high-interest informal loans when banks reject them. Crypto-backed credit instead introduces transparent terms and predictable conditions. Users can clearly understand collateral requirements and repayment obligations.

Bitcoin credit argentina moves closer to everyday utility

Lemon’s launch marks a shift in how Bitcoin fits into daily life across the country. The bitcoin credit argentina framework transforms BTC from a long-term hedge into a functional financial tool. Users gain spending power while retaining ownership of their digital assets.

This balance may define the next stage of crypto adoption in inflation-hit economies. Moreover, it underscores how digital assets can support real economic activity rather than mere trading. The Bitcoin-backed Visa card positions Argentina as a leader in crypto-powered credit innovation.

As global financial systems evolve, such models could reshape how credit is issued and who can access it. Argentina’s experience will likely be closely watched by policymakers, fintech founders, and crypto investors looking for scalable inclusion strategies.

In summary, Lemon’s product connects Bitcoin savings with accessible peso credit, offering Argentines a new way to manage volatility, preserve value, and participate more fully in the formal economy.

Chinese authorities have turned the high-profile digital yuan corruption case of former regulator Yao Qian into a showcase of how blockchain can also expose financial crime.

Former digital yuan architect accused of multimillion crypto bribery

Chinese state media revealed that former central bank official Yao Qian, once a key architect of the digital yuan, accepted more than $8 million in cryptocurrency bribes while holding senior regulatory posts. However, the same blockchain infrastructure he helped pioneer ultimately revealed his scheme.

State broadcaster CCTV detailed the case on January 14 in a documentary titled “Technology Empowering Anti-Corruption.” Investigators traced 2,000 Ethereum, valued at around 60 million yuan at peak prices, sent by a businessman in 2018 to a wallet controlled by Yao.

According to the program, Yao, the former director of the Digital Currency Research Institute at the People’s Bank of China, allegedly used multiple shell accounts and blockchain addresses to hide bribes worth at least 22 million yuan ($3.1 million) in fiat, alongside substantial crypto holdings. Moreover, he is accused of leveraging his influence over digital asset regulation while secretly benefiting from the sector.

Hardware wallets and shell accounts exposed the bribery network

The investigation gained momentum when inspectors discovered three hardware wallets in a drawer in Yao’s office. The devices looked like ordinary USB sticks but reportedly stored cryptocurrencies worth tens of millions of yuan.

“These three seemingly insignificant little wallets stored tens of millions of yuan,” said Zou Rong, a staff member with the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection stationed at the China Securities Regulatory Commission. However, blockchain transparency allowed authorities to reconstruct transaction flows from these devices.

Yao reportedly assumed that virtual currencies would keep his activities anonymous. That said, investigators used blockchain forensic tracing techniques to map complete transaction histories and connect incoming funds to his personal wallets and spending patterns.

The documentary showed that Yao purchased a Beijing villa worth more than 20 million yuan with funds linked to crypto exchanges. One single payment of 10 million yuan, converted from digital assets, stood out as a key piece of evidence tying on-chain activity to real estate.

Authorities followed money flows through layers of shell accounts controlled by relatives and intermediaries. They concluded that businessman Wang transferred 12 million yuan via an information services company in return for regulatory favors allegedly granted by Yao.

“He believed that after setting up multiple layers, the system would be more isolated,” said Shi Changping of the Shanwei City Discipline Inspection Commission. “In fact, multiple parties made the evidence chain more complete.” Moreover, each added intermediary left additional records for investigators to connect.

Although Yao’s official bank accounts showed no clear anomalies, cross-checking with government databases exposed accounts opened under other identities that he secretly controlled. These channels received large transfers that investigators traced back through four layers to crypto exchange fund accounts.

From there, authorities linked the movements of money to property purchases and dealings with technology service providers. The case demonstrated how combining traditional financial forensics with on-chain analytics can pierce even complex concealment structures.

Subordinate built crypto channels for bribes

Investigators identified Jiang Guoqing, Yao’s longtime subordinate, as a key intermediary in the alleged china crypto bribery network. Jiang followed Yao from the People’s Bank to the securities regulator and helped manage digital payments to his superior.

“I set up a transfer address where people would send coins, then transfer them to Yao Qian’s personal wallet,” Jiang admitted in the program. He acknowledged that he personally profited from facilitating these power-for-money transactions involving cryptocurrency transfers.

In 2018, Jiang introduced businessman Zhang to Yao. Using his regulatory influence and industry reputation, Yao allegedly helped Zhang’s company issue tokens and raise 20,000 Ethereum via a cryptocurrency exchange, in return for 2,000 Ethereum as payment.

“Yao Qian has great influence in the industry because of his position,” Jiang told investigators. Moreover, he explained how regulatory authority could be converted into privileged access to token issuance channels and liquidity in digital asset markets.

Beyond crypto, prosecutors documented that Yao accepted expensive gifts, hosted lavish banquets, interfered with employee recruitment, and steered software procurement contracts while at the China Securities Regulatory Commission. These patterns fit a broader securities regulator corruption probe into abuse of office.

The investigation also noted that Yao engaged in superstitious rituals, a serious ideological violation under Communist Party rules. He allegedly built relationships with individuals described as “key training targets” for illicit activities, indicating premeditated efforts to construct a protection network.

Party discipline, prosecution and lessons for crypto oversight

Yao was expelled from the Communist Party of China in November 2024 and handed over for criminal prosecution. However, investigators highlighted that the case went beyond individual wrongdoing, providing a model for future digital asset oversight.

Authorities said they achieved “mutual corroboration and a closed loop of evidence” by combining blockchain data, property records, banking information and internal Party discipline files. This integrated approach turned the yao qian bribery case into a reference point for handling similar investigations.

Officials stressed that “cryptocurrency is useless if it can’t be cashed out—when virtual assets eventually become real assets, their true nature is easily exposed.” Moreover, the unfinished villa that Yao bought with converted crypto funds became a powerful physical symbol of his alleged misconduct.

The property, still under construction when he was detained, connected years of digital transfers to a tangible asset. That said, the scandal has not halted Beijing’s broader efforts to regulate and harness blockchain payment systems.

Digital yuan strategy continues despite high-profile scandal

Despite the digital yuan corruption scandal, China’s ambitions for a central bank digital currency remain intact. The People’s Bank of China was supposed to roll out a new framework on January 1 allowing commercial banks to pay interest on e-CNY wallet balances.

The policy aims to address structural digital yuan adoption challenges. Through November 2025, the e-CNY had processed 3.48 billion transactions with a cumulative value of 16.7 trillion yuan. However, it still lags far behind private payment giants Alipay and WeChat Pay, which together control more than 90% of China’s mobile payments market.

For regulators, the Yao case illustrates both the risks and opportunities created by state-backed digital money. On one hand, hardware wallet corruption and complex shell structures can facilitate hidden dealings. On the other, blockchain transparency offers powerful tools to detect, trace and prosecute misconduct.

In summary, Yao Qian’s downfall has become a test case for how China balances innovation in digital currency with strict political control and anti-corruption enforcement, shaping the future trajectory of its financial technology regime.

The Canton Network marks a decisive turning point in the global digital finance landscape. On January 15, 2026, Digital Asset and a consortium of leading financial institutions announced the completion of a third series of transactions on the platform, solidifying the network’s position as the go-to infrastructure for global collateral mobility.

This initiative represents a step forward in the realization of ever-active and scalable capital markets, thanks to the adoption of on-chain technologies and the tokenization of deposits.

Collaboration Among Financial Giants

The Canton Network’s industrial working group has recently expanded, welcoming prominent new members such as Euroclear, Euronext, LSEG, and TreasurySpring, alongside Cumberland DRW, Societe Generale, Tradeweb, Virtu Financial, and Digital Asset itself.

This expansion demonstrates the growing traction the project is gaining in European and global financial markets, strengthening collaboration between market infrastructures, banks, and digital solution providers.

Multi-asset and Multi-currency Versatility

For the first time, the working group conducted cross-border intraday repo transactions using multiple currencies and asset classes. The operations involved European government bonds, U.S. Treasuries, euro cash, and U.S. dollars, demonstrating the platform’s flexibility and international reach.

This versatility allows for more dynamic collateral management, enhancing liquidity and efficiency in capital markets.

LSEG DiSH: the tokenization of commercial deposits

One of the key elements of this evolution is the use of LSEG Digital Settlement House (LSEG DiSH). Unlike traditional stablecoins, LSEG DiSH allows for the tokenization of commercial bank deposits, offering a true on-chain cash option.

Users can instantly transfer their deposits to any member of the DiSH network, without the need to maintain direct relationships with each bank. This system enables 24/7 real-time transfers, making tokenized money immediately available as the “cash leg” in intraday repo transactions.

A New Standard for Liquidity

The use of tokenized deposits on Canton Network has enabled the creation of a real liquidity solution, overcoming the limitations of stablecoin-based solutions.

The transactions demonstrate how the mobility of collateral can be enhanced globally, paving the way for a continuously active capital markets infrastructure ready to support new on-chain financing initiatives.

The Voices of the Protagonists

Euroclear: Innovation at the Core of the Strategy

Jorgen Ouaknine, Global Head of Innovation and Digital Assets at Euroclear, emphasizes the importance of collaboration: “Euroclear is pleased to work with these industry leaders to explore the tokenization of deposits through collateral mobility.

As a reliable market infrastructure, we believe that progress in digital finance comes from a close partnership with the market. We aim to unlock new forms of liquidity and offer tangible benefits to our clients, building a more connected and efficient financial ecosystem.”

Euronext: Efficiency and Interoperability

David Leblache, Head of Innovation & AI Products at Euronext, highlights how this initiative reflects the industry’s collective commitment to exploring the potential of tokenization and on-chain infrastructures: “For Euronext, this work aligns with our strategy to support innovation that enhances market efficiency, resilience, and interoperability.”

LSEG: a Real Cash Solution for the Digital

Bud Novin, Head of Payment Systems, Post Trade Solutions at LSEG, expresses enthusiasm for the role of LSEG DiSH: “We are excited about the potential of our DiSH cash service, which offers a true cash solution as the leg of any digital asset transaction.

Tokenizing DiSH Cash on Canton has allowed our clients to benefit from an interoperable commercial bank money solution, on-chain, for settlement against other tokenized assets.”

Digital Asset: Towards a Global Network of Collaterals

Kelly Mathieson, Chief Business Development Officer at Digital Asset, highlights the significance of the milestone achieved: “This result lays the foundation for a true global network of collaterals with on-chain liquidity for high-quality assets.

After the initial tests on US Treasury and USDC stablecoin, we have now unlocked cross-border multi-asset and multi-currency transactions thanks to tokenized deposits, offering more options for the cash leg.”

TreasurySpring: Innovation in the Treasury Ecosystem

Matthew Longhurst, Co-Founder and Chief Innovation Officer of TreasurySpring, highlights how the partnership with Canton Network allows for shaping the future of digital assets within the treasury investment ecosystem, integrating the offering of institutional cash investment products on a global scale.

Future Prospects: Always-On Infrastructures

The recently concluded transactions represent a turning point for the global mobility of collateral and the integration of on-chain liquidity solutions.

The Canton Network working group will continue to collaborate in 2026 on new on-chain financing initiatives, accelerating the transition towards scalable, interconnected, and always available capital markets.

The tokenization of deposits and cross-border mobility of collaterals are no longer just futuristic concepts, but operational realities that are redefining the rules of global finance. With the involvement of leading players and the adoption of innovative technologies, the Canton Network establishes itself as the benchmark platform for the new era of digital finance.

Solana Mobile is preparing its ecosystem for a major incentive push as the first skr airdrop goes live for Seeker phone owners and developers.

Solana Mobile confirms 1.8 billion SKR distribution

On Jan. 21, more than 100,000 Seeker users and 188 developers will receive a combined allocation of 1,819,755,000 SKR and 141,030,000 SKR, respectively. The figures were confirmed in a Wednesday post on X by Solana Mobile, underscoring the scale of the incentive program.

Moreover, an official allocation tracker is now live, allowing participants to verify their individual rewards directly from their integrated seed vault wallet. This tool is designed to make the distribution process transparent and easy to monitor for every eligible holder.

Role of SKR in the Solana Mobile ecosystem

SKR is the native token powering the broader Solana Mobile ecosystem and is closely associated with the second generation of smartphones launched last year. It is intended to function as both a utility and governance asset, giving users more direct influence over platform policies and future development.

However, the token goes beyond simple rewards. Seeker owners will be able to delegate their holdings to designated Guardians, who handle device verification, app curation, and enforcement of community rules. In turn, users gain access to exclusive in-app features and the potential to earn staking-based incentives.

SKR tokenomics and community allocations

According to SKR tokenomics overview documents released earlier this month, the token has a fixed total supply of 10 billion. Of that amount, 30% is reserved for community airdrops, ensuring long-term distribution to active ecosystem participants.

That said, two-thirds of the initial airdrop pool has been specifically earmarked for Solana Seeker users and developers. This structure highlights Solana Mobile’s focus on its hardware community as the primary engine of early adoption and on-chain usage.

In addition, another 2.7 billion SKR scheduled to unlock at the token generation event will be directed toward the community treasury, liquidity provisioning, and broader growth and partnership initiatives. These allocations are meant to support sustainable expansion rather than short-term speculation.

Staking at launch and Guardian participation

The solana mobile token will be stakeable immediately when the program begins on Jan. 21. Users will be able to lock tokens and earn skr staking rewards through Guardians directly from the secure Seed Vault Wallet on their devices.

“SKR can also be staked on the web via the SKR Staking web experience,” Solana Mobile stated. Moreover, this dual staking approach aims to serve both mobile-first users and those who prefer desktop or browser-based interfaces.

Seeker airdrop tiers and maximum rewards

The first skr airdrop season introduces a five-tier reward structure that determines how many tokens each Seeker owner can earn. Solana Mobile explained that the model was “determined by engagement with Seeker, the Solana dApp Store, and on-chain activity” during season 1.

There are currently five seeker airdrop tiers: Scout, Prospector, Vanguard, Luminary, and Sovereign. Sovereign sits at the top with a maximum reward of 750,000 SKR per eligible Seeker phone, while Scout, on the lower end, offers 5,000 SKR.

Furthermore, this tiered design links seeker phone rewards directly to user behavior, encouraging deeper interaction with applications and on-chain services. By aligning higher rewards with higher engagement, the program seeks to strengthen network effects around the Seeker device.

Seeker phone adoption and hardware evolution

Seeker is the second-generation crypto-integrated smartphone in Solana Mobile’s lineup and began shipping to more than 50 countries in August last year. It follows the earlier Saga handset, which struggled to attract a broad user base despite its pioneering integration of on-chain features.

However, Seeker has seen stronger demand, thanks largely to upgraded hardware and a more accessible $500 price point. When shipping commenced, Solana Mobile had already secured over 150,000 pre-orders, signaling much higher confidence in the new device.

Outlook for the SKR-driven mobile ecosystem

The upcoming distribution of more than 1.8 billion SKR, combined with immediate staking and a clear allocation roadmap, positions Seeker at the center of Solana Mobile’s strategy. If engagement levels hold, the token-based incentives and Guardian-led governance could help solidify the phone’s role as a core access point to the Solana ecosystem.

A new funding round is propelling the growth of Genius Trading in the race to build institutional-grade, onchain trading infrastructure that can rival centralized exchanges.

YZi Labs invests multi-8-figure sum with CZ as advisor

YZi Labs, the family office of Binance co-founders Changpeng “CZ” Zhao and Yi He, has made a “multi-8-figure” investment in Genius Trading, with CZ also joining the startup as an advisor.

The investment, completed last month, comes from the entity that spun out of Binance Labs and signals a long-term bet on an onchain trading stack that can compete with the world’s largest exchanges. However, the parties have not disclosed a detailed valuation.

Genius is building a privacy-focused, decentralized trading platform that offers spot, perpetual futures, and copy trading through a self-custodial, cross-chain trading terminal. Moreover, the startup explicitly aims to position itself as an onchain alternative to Binance.

“If you were rebuilding Binance today, you would not do it as a centralized exchange 9you would build it onchain,” said Ryan Myher, co-founder and COO of Genius Trading. “Genius is our answer to what that looks like: one terminal, full custody, no compromises.”

Deal size, structure and token plans

Co-founder and CEO Armaan Kalsi said the “multi-8-figure” ticket from YZi Labs is well above $10 million. However, he declined to reveal the exact size or structure of the deal, including how much is equity or tokens, or whether there is a mix of both.

Kalsi also declined to comment on whether Genius plans to issue a native token, a common route for DeFi trading projects. That said, the scale of this latest round places the company in a different bracket from its earlier capital raises.

Before this investment, Genius had secured a total of $7 million in funding, including a $6 million round in 2024 and a $1 million extension. That round was led by CMCC, with participation from Balaji Srinivasan, Anthony Scaramucci, Flow Traders and other backers.

What Genius Trading is building

Genius Trading is positioning itself as a unified, self-custodial trading terminal that aggregates liquidity across more than 10 blockchains. Supported networks include BNB Chain, Solana, Ethereum, Hyperliquid, Base, Avalanche, and Sui.

Through this design, users can trade without manually bridging assets or switching between wallets while avoiding publicly signaling their strategies onchain. Moreover, the platform offers spot, perpetuals, and decentralized copy trading tools in a single interface intended to feel similar to a centralized exchange.

“We are building a privacy-specific trading suite that is still in beta,” Kalsi told The Block. “We are taking our time. Our bet is that the current degeneracy meta in crypto is a great way to acquire users (speculation), but that once they realize the power of the underlying technology, they will want to stay.”

According to Kalsi, once traders shift from pure speculation to building longer-term financial activity, privacy and self-custody will become non-negotiable features for any serious trading genius product.

Early usage and technical stack

Since its “soft” launch in October 2024, Genius says it has processed more than $60 million in trading volume. Usage so far is concentrated among onchain whales that manage millions of dollars in monthly activity, underscoring the institutional tilt of the product.

Behind the interface, the platform uses a custom multi-party computation (MPC) wallet, proprietary cross-chain routing logic, and direct integrations with decentralized exchanges. However, Kalsi said Genius has no plans to launch a dedicated blockchain and instead intends to integrate only with existing chains and DeFi protocols.

That said, the team is working to keep the user experience as close as possible to a centralized venue while retaining self-custody. This mirrors broader market demand for a self custodial trading platform that does not sacrifice execution quality.

Privacy layer and roadmap

A core pillar of the project is a privacy focused trading layer designed to shield large onchain strategies from surveillance. The system, currently in beta, enables users to split a single transaction into “hundreds of wallets” to reduce traceability while keeping all activity onchain.

Genius says the design avoids offchain components and does not rely on zero-knowledge systems that can introduce execution delays. Moreover, the company plans a privacy protocol public beta in the second quarter of 2026, opening the mechanism to a wider set of users.

The longer-term privacy push reflects the founders’ view of how onchain adoption will evolve. Kalsi described the current “terminal wars” as a fiercely competitive phase among trading platforms such as Axiom, GMGN, Photon, and Padre, which have been battling over customer acquisition costs and dense feature sets.

While speculative activity has helped drive overall crypto user growth, Kalsi believes the primary_keyword will need to double down on its privacy stack as traders shift to building lasting portfolios and more structured financial lives onchain.

Origins, team and hiring plans

Genius, built by Shuttle Labs, was founded in 2022 when the core team was still in college at Yale University, according to Kalsi. The project initially started as a block data legibility and explorer tool before evolving into a full-featured trading platform.

He noted that the same core team has continued building together since inception. Alongside Kalsi and Myher, the third co-founder is CTO Brihu Sundararaman, who leads the technical architecture and privacy roadmap.

The company is headquartered in New York City and operates with a globally distributed team of 11 people. However, Kalsi said the startup will hire cautiously, potentially adding only two to four additional employees over the near term.

So, Genius aims to combine a unified, institutional-grade terminal, deep cross-chain liquidity, and advanced privacy tooling to challenge centralized exchanges from the onchain side, with fresh capital from YZi Labs and CZ’s guidance accelerating that effort.

Wall Street is starting 2026 with a renewed focus on digital finance, as Figure Technology emerges in analyst research as a leading blockchain-driven growth story.

Bernstein backs Figure with top pick call and higher target

Wall Street broker Bernstein has highlighted Figure Technology (FIGR) as its top investment idea for 2026, pointing to the lender’s rapid expansion in blockchain-based credit markets. The call underscores growing conviction that tokenization and on-chain infrastructure could reshape how traditional financial products are issued and traded.

Moreover, the broker reiterated its “outperform” rating on the stock and issued a substantial price target increase, signaling confidence that the company’s fundamentals can support further upside. The report comes at a time when investors are reassessing fintech exposure amid tighter monetary conditions and heightened regulatory scrutiny on digital assets.

Tokenized marketplace and lending growth beat expectations

Bernstein said Figure’s tokenized marketplace volumes and lending activity are running well ahead of internal expectations, suggesting faster adoption of its blockchain-based funding model. The marketplace, which allows credit assets to be originated and traded on-chain, is becoming a central driver of the company’s growth profile.

However, the upside is not limited to loans alone. New loan categories and a rapidly scaling stablecoin yield product are expanding revenue optionality, according to the analysts. That said, the firm still sees significant room for Figure to deepen its presence in its core home equity lending franchise while layering on new credit verticals.

Modernizing legacy banking infrastructure on-chain

Bernstein’s bullish stance is rooted in Figure’s role in modernizing legacy banking ledgers by moving conventional balance sheet records onto public or permissioned blockchains. The analysts argue this migration could meaningfully reduce friction in loan issuance, servicing and secondary trading. It may also improve transparency for both regulators and investors.

“Figure upgrades legacy banking ledgers to the blockchain ledger,” analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote in a note on Wednesday, emphasizing that the business model “can evolve rapidly towards new lending categories.” Moreover, they contend that the company’s platform economics improve as more assets migrate on-chain, creating network effects around origination and distribution.

The team also noted that the business is evolving faster than initially projected. Activity is expanding beyond its original focus on home equity lines into a broader set of collateral types and loan structures. In the analysts’ view, this evolution supports their thesis that figure technology can become a key player in the emerging tokenized credit ecosystem.

Revenue forecasts sharply upgraded into 2027

Reflecting these trends, Bernstein now projects net revenue for Figure to reach about $945 million by 2027, up from an estimated $511 million in 2025. That revised forecast sits roughly 21% above the broker’s prior estimate, signaling a material upgrade to its growth outlook.

Furthermore, the analysts argue that the revenue trajectory is increasingly supported by diversified income streams, not just one product line. Marketplace fees, lending spreads and yield-related products together underpin the new forecasts, while potential new categories could add incremental upside over time.

Chhugani lifts target to $72 and keeps outperform rating

Lead analyst Gautam Chhugani reiterated his outperform rating reiterated on the stock and raised his target by 33% to $72 from $54. According to FactSet data, this level is now the second-highest among Wall Street analysts covering the name, underscoring the conviction behind the call.

Piper Sandler remains the top bull on the shares, maintaining a buy rating and a price target of $75, the data show. However, Bernstein’s revised assumptions about net revenue and marketplace growth put it firmly in the optimistic camp on the stock’s medium-term performance.

Trading performance since the 2025 Nasdaq listing

Figure listed on the Nasdaq in September 2025 at an initial public offering price of $25 per share, drawing investor interest as a pure-play on blockchain-based lending. Since the Figure Technology IPO, the stock has climbed significantly from that starting level, reflecting both business progress and positive sentiment toward on-chain financial infrastructure.

In the months following the debut, the shares have traded in a range of roughly $30 to $59. That volatility mirrors broader market swings in growth equities but also highlights persistent demand for exposure to its blockchain-linked lending model. Moreover, the trading pattern suggests investors are actively repricing the company’s long-term earnings potential as new data emerge.

On Wednesday, the stock was trading flat intraday after rising as much as 5% in early trading, as the market digested Bernstein’s updated outlook. That said, the muted immediate reaction may reflect an already strong run in the shares since listing, even as analysts argue there is more room to climb.

Outlook: tokenized credit and revenue diversification

Looking ahead, analysts see Figure well positioned to capitalize on growing institutional interest in tokenized credit assets and blockchain-native funding channels. The company’s expanding loan book, scalable technology stack and developing marketplace infrastructure could help it capture share from slower-moving incumbents.

Moreover, if net revenue tracks closer to Bernstein’s upgraded $945 million by 2027 forecast, investors may increasingly view the stock as a core way to play the convergence of traditional lending and digital asset rails. In that scenario, Figure’s combination of lending expertise and blockchain execution could prove a durable competitive edge.

In summary, Bernstein’s call frames Figure as a high-growth lender reshaping how credit is originated and traded, with tokenization, diversified products and a modernized ledger architecture at the center of its investment case.

Institutional and retail traders in the U.S. now have a new regulated way to access the Aptos ecosystem through aptos futures listed on a CFTC-supervised venue.

First U.S.-regulated Aptos-linked futures go live

Bitnomial has introduced the first-ever U.S.-regulated futures contracts tied to Aptos (APT), creating a regulated market structure for institutional access to the Layer 1 blockchain. The contracts began trading on January 14 on Bitnomial Exchange, giving both institutional and retail traders a venue for price discovery and risk management tied to APT.

Moreover, the launch positions Bitnomial among a small group of venues offering physically connected digital asset futures under a U.S. regulatory framework. The firm aims to bridge traditional derivatives infrastructure with emerging blockchain networks such as Aptos without altering core compliance standards.

Contract design and margining framework

The new APT futures feature monthly expirations and are designed to be settled in either U.S. dollars or in APT, depending on the direction of the position. This dual-settlement structure is intended to give traders flexibility in how they manage exposure and settlement risk.

Traders can post margin in crypto or USD through Bitnomial Clearinghouse, LLC. However, access to the contracts is routed via Bitnomial Exchange Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) clearing members, aligning the product with established futures market workflows and compliance checks.

Michael Dunn, president of Bitnomial Exchange, said the launch addresses a critical gap in the U.S. derivatives landscape. He emphasized that a regulated futures market is often viewed as a prerequisite for spot crypto exchange-traded fund approvals under the Securities and Exchange Commission‘s generic listing standards, especially for new Layer 1 assets.

According to the company, with APT futures now live institutional participants can obtain institutional Aptos exposure using the same regulated infrastructure they already rely on for Bitcoin and Ether derivatives, including portfolio margining across multiple positions.

Institutional infrastructure meets Aptos

Aptos is a Layer 1 blockchain engineered to deliver sub-second finality and high transaction throughput. Built using the Move programming language and a parallel execution engine, the network has drawn increasing interest from institutions testing scalable on-chain applications and transaction-heavy use cases.

That said, institutional adoption typically depends on the availability of regulated derivatives rails. aptos futures listed on a U.S.-regulated venue are therefore seen as an important step toward integrating the blockchain more deeply into traditional trading strategies and risk frameworks.

Solomon Tesfaye, chief business officer at Aptos Labs, said U.S.-regulated derivatives infrastructure is essential for institutional adoption. Moreover, he noted that Bitnomial’s CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse deliver the compliance, custody and risk management framework demanded by sophisticated market participants seeking exposure to Aptos.

Expansion of Bitnomial’s Crypto Complex

The introduction of APT futures further broadens Bitnomial’s Crypto Complex, a suite that provides U.S. market participants with access to a wide range of digital asset derivatives. This expansion underscores the firm’s strategy of layering new blockchain assets onto an existing regulatory and operational stack.

Delivery-settled contracts listed on Bitnomial Exchange can be margined with digital assets, a structure the company argues enhances capital efficiency versus traditional cash-only margin regimes. However, the contracts still clear through Bitnomial’s regulated entities, preserving oversight and standardized risk controls.

This delivery-settled approach allows traders to manage exposure across multiple crypto derivatives products more efficiently within a single regulated venue. Moreover, it can support more advanced strategies, including basis trades and spread positions that link APT with other major tokens such as Bitcoin and Ether.

Retail access and future Aptos-linked products

APT futures are available for trading today for institutional clients. Retail participation is expected to follow in the coming weeks through Botanical, Bitnomial’s retail trading platform, which will extend regulated access to a broader U.S. audience once integration is complete.

Looking ahead, Bitnomial said it plans to expand its Aptos-linked lineup with perpetual futures and options. That said, any new products will also sit inside the same U.S.-regulated framework, further deepening what the firm describes as a growing aptos derivatives market for compliant APT exposure.

Bitnomial is headquartered in Chicago and operates a suite of CFTC-regulated exchange, clearinghouse and clearing brokerage entities. As Aptos and other Layer 1 networks continue to mature, the company expects demand for regulated access routes to keep rising.

In summary, Bitnomial’s launch of U.S.-regulated APT futures brings a new Layer 1 asset into the mainstream derivatives arena, aligning Aptos with existing institutional trading, margining and compliance practices while opening a path to broader participation over time.

Amid a friendlier US policy climate for digital assets, the Algorand Foundation is shifting back to America with a renewed regulatory and political focus.

Algorand Foundation relocates headquarters to Delaware

The Algorand Foundation will move its primary headquarters to Delaware after several years operating from Singapore, the nonprofit supporting development of the Algorand blockchain announced on Wednesday. The decision marks a strategic return to the United States and underscores growing interest in US-driven growth for the protocol.

Moreover, the relocation follows months of internal review around US operations, particularly in areas where the network already sees adoption in real-world finance. The foundation said the move aligns with expanding work on payments infrastructure, asset tokenization and other blockchain-based financial services targeting both institutions and end users.

New board reflects deeper US regulatory and financial focus

A newly appointed board of directors brings together executives from the financial, crypto and US regulatory sectors, signaling a stronger push into American markets and policymaking circles. However, the organization stressed that this governance refresh is intended to reinforce, not overhaul, its long-term strategy.

The new board blends former policymakers with veteran builders and technologists from the crypto industry, and is structured to sharpen priorities around financial empowerment and infrastructure. That said, it will also focus on clarifying how Algorand positions itself within a rapidly evolving US regulatory landscape.

The board includes Abra founder and CEO Bill Barhydt as chair, alongside former MoneyGram CEO Alex Holmes, former acting FinCEN director Michael Mosier, Jito Labs CLO Rebecca Rettig, and Algorand Foundation CEO Staci Warden. Together, they will oversee expanding US operations and guide initiatives spanning global payments, tokenized assets and broader access to financial tools.

Trump administration policy shift and US crypto posture

Under President Donald Trump, US crypto policy has shifted notably from the more aggressive enforcement posture of previous years. The current approach is moving toward an industry-facing framework meant to support blockchain innovation and capital formation, while still aiming for market integrity.

Early executive actions, including a directive to develop a federal model for regulating digital assets, have signaled a pivot toward greater regulatory clarity. Moreover, that directive points to a preference for legislative engagement and defined oversight, rather than rulemaking by enforcement and fragmented guidance.

In this context, the algorand foundation sees an opening to deepen US regulatory engagement while continuing to build infrastructure for real-world financial applications. The leadership believes the United States can play a central role in the next phase of blockchain adoption if policy remains predictable.

US base to support payments, tokenization and real-world finance

Algorand’s blockchain already underpins projects targeting concrete financial use cases, including tokenized real estate, cross-border payments and on-chain lending. Establishing a stronger US base is expected to accelerate growth in these verticals, especially as American institutions increase experimentation with tokenized instruments.

According to CEO Staci Warden, “By reestablishing our presence in the United States, Algorand is helping ensure US leadership for the next generation of financial infrastructure.” However, the organization emphasized that its global footprint will remain important as adoption spreads across regions.

The return to the US and the appointment of a refreshed board are meant to strengthen, rather than fundamentally change, Algorand’s strategic path. Moreover, the foundation expects its Delaware base to make it easier to collaborate with regulators, financial institutions and policymakers on initiatives spanning global payments, asset tokenization and digital market infrastructure.

Ecosystem governance and developer engagement

Beyond the new board, the foundation plans to establish an algorand ecosystem advisory council that will give developers, projects and major network participants a structured voice in shaping strategic decisions. The council is expected to focus on protocol evolution, real-world integrations and community priorities.

That said, the organization is positioning the council as complementary to its formal board governance, not a replacement. The goal is to ensure that builders working directly on the network’s technology and financial products can surface needs and opportunities early, especially in key areas like global payments and programmable money.

Algorand itself is a public layer-1 blockchain designed for financial applications, including payments, asset issuance and identity solutions. Originating from academic research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, it is used by developers building tools for both retail users and institutions seeking reliable on-chain finance.

US leadership vision for next-generation infrastructure

The algorand foundation envisions its Delaware headquarters, new US-focused board and forthcoming council as core pillars for expanding American and global adoption. Moreover, by aligning more closely with regulators and financial firms, it aims to help shape standards for next-generation financial infrastructure.

In summary, the move back to the United States, under a changing federal stance toward digital assets, positions Algorand to play a larger role in payments, tokenized assets and broader blockchain-based financial services in the years ahead.

A recent tragedy in Hong Kong has once again exposed how severe cryptocurrency losses can deepen existing vulnerabilities and lead to devastating personal consequences.

Hong Kong student dies after $10 million HKD trading cryptocurrency losses

A 32-year-old post-graduate student identified as Chen reportedly died after falling from his family apartment in Hong Kong, following failed cryptocurrency trades totaling about $10 million HKD (approximately $1.2 million).

The incident adds to a disturbing series of cases worldwide involving violence, kidnapping, and deaths connected to digital asset speculation. Moreover, it comes at a time when global markets have endured intense volatility and painful liquidations.

According to local media, Chen was studying in the United Kingdom and had returned home to Hong Kong shortly before his death. Earlier in the week, he became the latest entry in what some observers describe as a growing list of tragedies tied to extreme market swings and risky leveraged trading.

Mental health struggles and mounting financial pressure

Before the fatal fall, Chen’s father said his son had admitted losing about $1.2 million through failed cryptocurrency investments. That said, the financial hit came on top of a longer struggle with mental health.

Reports indicate that Chen’s psychological condition deteriorated in 2022 after he lost his job during the COVID-19 pandemic. He subsequently developed mental disorders, for which he had been receiving regular medical treatment and taking prescribed medication.

In September 2023, Chen moved to the UK to continue his studies. However, while he was abroad, his family noticed that he appeared emotionally unstable. They eventually persuaded him to return to Hong Kong to visit a private clinic for a psychiatric re-examination.

Final hours before the fatal fall

Chen arrived at the airport on Monday and was picked up by his father, who drove him back to their home at Bijiashan Garden on Lung Ping Road. However, the situation escalated quickly once they were inside the apartment.

According to the police account, Chen suddenly attempted to harm himself with a fruit knife. His father managed to wrestle the knife away, but Chen then rushed toward the apartment terrace and jumped.

He fell from the terrace onto a first-floor platform. Emergency services arrived at around 5:00 p.m., and Chen was transported to Caritas Medical Centre, where he was later pronounced dead. Police said they found no evidence of foul play and classified the case as a “fall from height.” Moreover, authorities are continuing standard inquiries.

Global pattern of violence around crypto wealth

The Hong Kong case does not stand alone. It follows a rise in violent attacks and deaths involving crypto investors and executives in several regions. Furthermore, growing market size and wealth concentration in digital assets appear to have raised the stakes.

Recent reports highlighted an “explosion” in violent assaults targeting crypto holders in France, including home invasions and robberies. In the Middle East, a separate case involved the kidnapping and murder of a crypto investor and his partner.

Another widely reported incident concerned the death of a Ukrainian politician’s son in Vienna. Together, these events underline how financial stress, security risks, and personal vulnerability can intersect around digital asset speculation and extreme price moves.

Market volatility and the backdrop for extreme outcomes

The tragedy also unfolded against a backdrop of sharp cryptocurrency market volatility. On January 2, Bitcoin dropped below $88,000 after large institutional sales aimed at de-risking early in the new year.

That move came only months after the infamous “1011 crash” of October 2025, when overleveraged positions triggered forced liquidations that wiped out more than $19 billion in a single day. The resulting “liquidity vacuum” weighed on trading conditions into the following year.

Bitcoin has since recovered and now trades above $95,000. However, the October 2025 collapse was reportedly exacerbated by new global trade tariffs and export controls on software. During that period, reports also surfaced that a 32-year-old Ukrainian crypto CEO had been found dead in his car following a $30 million loss.

Investor protection, regulation, and managing risk

The case has revived questions about how to manage risk and psychological stress in highly speculative markets. For many retail traders, large cryptocurrency losses are compounded by leverage, lack of diversification, and limited access to professional support.

In Hong Kong, Financial Secretary Paul Chan recently emphasized the need for caution when engaging with the crypto industry. Moreover, he pointed to stronger oversight as a key tool to curb scams and excessive risk-taking.

The government has launched its “Fintech 2030“ strategy along with new fintech licensing for dealers. The initiative aims to tighten supervision, improve crypto investor protection measures, and reduce the likelihood of fraud and extreme financial loss for both retail and professional investors.

Lessons for traders in a high-risk environment

Chen’s death underscores how extreme trading losses, especially when combined with pre-existing mental health issues, can become overwhelming. However, it also highlights the importance of setting strict risk limits, avoiding excessive leverage, and seeking help early when financial stress begins to escalate.

For regulators in Hong Kong and beyond, the incident reinforces calls to balance innovation with safety. Stronger education, clearer rules, and easier access to mental health and financial counseling may be as critical as new laws in preventing future tragedies linked to digital asset speculation.

Ultimately, the Hong Kong case, along with similar episodes in Europe and the Middle East, serves as a stark reminder that behind each market move are real people whose lives can be profoundly affected by rapid gains and sudden, painful losses.

Rising activity in smart contract networks is reshaping the landscape of x402 payments, with Solana increasingly challenging Base for on-chain volume leadership.

Solana briefly overtakes Base in daily x402 transaction count

On-chain data showed that Solana surpassed Base in x402 on-chain transactions for the first time on Sunday. Solana recorded 518,400 x402 payments, while Base settled 505,000 payments on the same protocol, marking a rare shift in traffic between the two networks.

Moreover, breakdowns by use case highlighted where demand is strongest. Transactions in agent-to-agent services led with $548,500 in payments, followed by infrastructure and utilities at $267,100. However, AI-generated services remained a niche segment, recording only $14,200 in payments over the same period.

Coinbase emerges as dominant facilitator as x402 payments scales

Across supported chains, the x402 protocol is already handling roughly $600m in annualized payment volume. According to on-chain metrics, more than 50% of these flows are routed through the Coinbase facilitator, even as several competing routes gain traction.

Commentary from ecosystem participants underscores expectations for rapid adoption. An account known as 0xSammy described the design as an open standard that can achieve “escape velocity” through broad integration and called x402 a potential “2026 mega trend.” That said, the protocol remains in an early, experimental phase.

January 11 data shows Solana edging ahead in daily volume

On January 11, Solana accounted for nearly 51% of all payments executed on the x402 protocol. Over that day, x402 transaction volumes on the Solana blockchain reached $34,600, while Base recorded around $34,300. The combined x402 transaction volume across all tracked blockchains totaled $69,000.

Moreover, category-level data revealed a similar hierarchy to Sunday. Payment volume in agent-to-agent services reached $49,600, followed by data-as-a-service with transaction volumes of $15,000. Payment volumes in infrastructure and utilities were reported at $202.1, with the remaining categories accounting for the rest of the spending that day.

Tuesday reversal sees Base regain the lead in x402 activity

By Tuesday, on-chain statistics showed that total x402 transactions by chain had climbed to 727,500. Base once again led with 454,900 x402 transactions, followed by Solana at 257,400. In addition, Polygon PoS processed 15,200 x402 payments, underscoring the network’s growing role in the standard’s rollout.

However, the distribution by sector stayed relatively consistent. There were 369,200 x402 transactions in infrastructure and utilities and 254,700 transactions in agent-to-agent services. Data-as-a-service recorded 69,200 transactions on Tuesday, with AI-generated services contributing a further 11,800 transactions.

Payment volumes slide even as Polygon leads by value

Despite the high transaction counts, aggregate x402 payment volume by chain dropped on Tuesday to $27,400, down from $50,600 the previous day. Polygon led in x402 payment volume with $50,400, followed by Solana at $20,100 and Base at $7,300, illustrating how average ticket sizes vary significantly by chain.

Moreover, agent-to-agent service transactions remained an important driver of value. There were more than $20,200 in payments in that category, with the remaining $7,200 in volume spread across other use cases. That said, the data indicates that infrastructure, utilities, and experimental AI segments are still comparatively smaller in dollar terms.

Solana’s previous peak and explosive growth in 2025

Solana reached a previous all-time high in daily payment volume of $380,000 in late 2025 as transaction volumes surged on the blockchain. At that time, on-chain data also showed week-on-week growth of approximately 750%, reflecting how quickly new payment standards can scale when network fees and user experience are favorable.

By the end of 2025, the x402 protocol had processed over 100 million payments across several applications. In parallel, x402 on-chain payments were reporting more than $600 million in annualized payment volume across all supported blockchains. On-chain data indicated that around 50% of that payment flow ran through the Coinbase facilitator, emphasizing its central role in routing value.

Base holds cumulative lead as Solana and Polygon play catch-up

At the time of publication, on-chain records showed that the cumulative number of x402 transactions on Solana had surpassed 38.6 million. The cumulative number of x402 transactions on Base had reached 119 million, highlighting its position as the largest execution environment for the standard. However, Polygon PoS surprisingly reported the lowest cumulative x402 transaction count at 924.1 million, a figure that starkly contrasts with its more modest daily flows.

In terms of value, the Base blockchain dominates in x402 volume, with cumulative x402 transaction volume surpassing $35 million. Solana’s x402 payment volume has climbed to $7.9 million, followed by Polygon with just $3,100. Collectively, these figures underscore the uneven but steadily expanding footprint of the x402 payment standard across major smart contract networks.

Long-term forecasts point to massive addressable market

Global digital asset lender Galaxy Digital stated in December that the x402 payment standard could reach 30% of Base daily transactions and 5% of Solana transactions in 2026. Moreover, venture capital firm z16z forecasted that the x402 protocol may capture a $30 trillion market share over the next five years, if adoption by enterprises and consumer applications continues at its current pace.

Such projections, while ambitious, align with on-chain data showing fast-growing on chain x402 volume across different use cases. However, achieving that scale will depend on sustained developer interest, regulatory clarity for programmable payments, and the continued reliability of underlying layer-1 and layer-2 infrastructure.

Coinbase and Cloudflare build the x402 Foundation

Institutional backing has also deepened with new governance initiatives. In September, Cryptopolitan reported that Coinbase had collaborated with Cloudflare to establish the x402 Foundation. The companies said the initiative aims to simplify online payments through a new open internet standard, keeping the core specification neutral and widely accessible.

“As a next step, we are developing the x402 Foundation with Cloudflare and other partners to ensure the standard remains open and can be used fairly by any company in the world,” Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, said at the time. Moreover, Cloudflare argued that a lack of standardization has prevented widespread use of the “x402 Payment Required” concept.

Cloudflare Co-Founder and CEO Mathew Prince has championed Coinbase’s work on the x402 protocol, noting that the internet’s core protocols have historically relied on independent, interoperable governance. Meanwhile, Eric Reppel, creator of x402 and Head of Engineering for Coinbase Developer Platform, said the x402 Foundation will help make agentic commerce “a once-in-a-generation opportunity” to rethink how value moves online.

Outlook for multi-chain x402 payments adoption

Looking ahead, the competitive dynamics between Solana, Base, and Polygon suggest that x402 payments will continue to spread across multiple execution environments rather than concentrating on a single chain. However, the balance of power may shift quickly as fee markets, tooling, and consumer-facing applications mature.

For now, the combination of rising transaction counts, expanding annualized volume, and strong institutional sponsorship positions the x402 ecosystem as one of the key experiments to watch in programmable payments over the coming years.

New data from Chainalysis highlights how evolving crypto scam trends are increasingly powered by impersonation tactics and artificial intelligence across global markets.

$17 billion in crypto lost to scams and frauds in 2025

In its latest 2026 Crypto Crime Report, analytics firm Chainalysis revealed that $17 billion in cryptocurrency was lost to scams and frauds in 2025. The figure underscores how digital asset crime is expanding beyond traditional hacks. Moreover, it shows criminals are rapidly adapting their methods to exploit human psychology rather than only technical vulnerabilities.

The report emphasizes that impersonation schemes and AI-generated scams are now overtaking conventional cyber-attacks as the primary engines of crypto theft. While protocol hacks and exchange breaches remain a serious problem, the balance of risk is moving toward more personalized fraud. That shift is reshaping where the largest crypto scam losses are now coming from in the sector.

Impersonation scam growth and AI-enabled profitability

According to Chainalysis, impersonation scams recorded a staggering 1,400% year-over-year increase. At the same time, average payment sizes climbed sharply as criminals moved away from broad “spray-and-pray” tactics. Instead, they are targeting fewer victims but extracting significantly larger sums when they succeed, often by posing as trusted entities.

The report also finds that AI-enabled scams are 4.5 times more profitable than traditional variants. Deepfakes, automated chat tools and synthetic content make it easier to fabricate convincing “support agents,” “government notices” and “trusted insiders” at scale. However, this industrialization of fraud depends heavily on social engineering, not sophisticated code exploits, to separate users from their funds.

Within this broader picture of crypto scam trends, impersonation is emerging as a central pillar of digital asset crime. Criminals increasingly combine realistic visuals, cloned identities and persuasive scripts to build narratives that feel authentic. That said, these operations often rely on urgency, secrecy and emotional pressure rather than technical force.

High-profile UK bitcoin investment scam example

The report highlights that once-rare cases are fast becoming mainstream. In one notable incident, a man in the U.K. lost nearly $2.5 million in 2025 to a bitcoin investment scam described by police as “a disturbing new trend.” Scammers exploited “fear” and “panic,” crafting complex social engineering schemes designed to deceive even careful holders, according to North Wales police, which spoke to the BBC.

Furthermore, the North Wales Cyber Unit reported in April 2024 that, between 2020 and the end of 2023, nearly 100,000 people in the U.K. fell victim to investment scams. These losses totaled £2.6 billion, approximately $3.5 million, or about £13 million (roughly $17.5 million) every week. Officials stressed that these are only reported incidents, so the actual figure is likely far higher.

Those numbers suggest the U.K. case is no longer an edge scenario, but part of a broader surge in fraud targeting retail investors and traders. Moreover, the pattern mirrors what investigators are observing globally, as criminals mix traditional confidence tricks with new digital distribution channels.

From technical exploits to human-focused deception

Chainalysis argues that the evolution of crypto crime matters because it changes the core risk model for users and platforms. While hacks continue to pose a persistent threat, with nearly $2.2 billion reportedly stolen in 2024, the largest share of losses is increasingly tied to social engineering. In many cases, infrastructure may function correctly even as users are persuaded to authorize damaging transactions.

One exchange executive quoted in the report warned that impersonation fraud “is increasing and becoming more sophisticated” across the industry. He urged users never to share sensitive data, even if they are convinced they are speaking with legitimate support staff. Moreover, he stressed that people should never transfer their crypto to anyone who reaches out unexpectedly, noting that urgent or secretive messages are usually a clear red flag.

The same executive said he has personally been impersonated multiple times by scammers. Fraudsters created fake profiles under his name, contacted industry participants and requested money while pretending to represent the exchange. That said, these attacks rely far more on urgency and trust than on advanced technology, making education and skepticism key defensive tools.

Why AI and impersonation redefine crypto risk

Data from Chainalysis suggests that this shift toward deception is now a defining feature of digital asset crime. Rather than simply exploiting bugs in smart contracts or exchange systems, criminals increasingly stage interactions that feel authentic enough to bypass user skepticism. Furthermore, AI tools lower the cost of producing convincing materials, from fake voices to realistic documents and chat conversations.

As a result, even when wallets, protocols and exchanges are properly secured, users may still be tricked into surrendering control of their assets. The boundary between cybersecurity and behavioral manipulation is blurring, forcing market participants to rethink how they train customers and design user interfaces. However, improved awareness, clearer communication from service providers and stronger verification steps can help reduce the effectiveness of such schemes.

In summary, the latest Chainalysis findings indicate that crypto crime is evolving from technical exploitation toward large-scale, AI-assisted impersonation and fraud. With billions of dollars at stake in 2024 and 2025, the industry faces an urgent need to reinforce user education and verification practices. Ultimately, defending against these scams may depend less on code audits and more on strengthening human judgment.

Grvt, the privacy-focused perpetual DEX platform that’s trying to reinvent itself as Ethereum’s global liquidity layer, has announced a key technical milestone that strengthens its role as a bridge between crypto and traditional finance. 

The announcement refers to Grvt achieving “Travel Rule compatibility” with Upbit Singapore, a subsidiary of the Korean exchange giant Upbit. It increases Grvt’s operational compliance with Singapore’s digital asset rules and should be especially good news for Upbit Singapore users, as it promises much faster and more reliable settlements when they transfer funds between the two platforms. 

More importantly, this is a technical achievement that can serve as a role model for all DEX platforms and crypto startups looking to integrate themselves with traditional payment rails. Singapore’s Travel Rule is the cornerstone of that country’s digital asset regulations, and requires exchanges to provide full details of their user’s identities, including their names, addresses and back account numbers, when they transfer crypto funds or exchange crypto to fiat. While the rule is enforced for transfers of any amount, it stipulates enhanced data sharing for any transaction above S$1,500 (around $1,100). 

The Travel Rule applies to both transfers between exchange platforms and transfers to non-custodial wallets, and transactions can be delayed if users fail to comply with the requirements. To be compliant, virtual asset service providers are required to perform due diligence on their users, such as by verifying wallet ownership and monitoring their activity for suspicious transactions. 

In meeting these requirements, Grvt is setting itself apart from other DEX platforms by aligning itself closely with one of the world’s most progressive crypto regulatory frameworks. Singapore is widely viewed as one of the world’s most welcoming markets for crypto startups, with its innovation-friendly regulations striking what many see as an ideal balance between investor protection and financial transparency. But at the same time, Grvt remains true to one of crypto’s foundational principles, enabling its users to transact legally without giving up custody of their funds. As a decentralized exchange, Grvt never asks users to deposit assets with its platform, adhering to the “not your keys, not your coins” philosophy that’s so fundamental to crypto believers. 

Grvt CEO Hong Yea said the protocol is rapidly building the kind of institutional-grade infrastructure required to bridge the crypto ecosystem with that of traditional finance. He has made no secret of his ambitions to transform Ethereum into a global payments and investment layer, and the ability to seamlessly transfer crypto will be critical for that to happen. 

Grvt’s infrastructure is primed to play a key role in Ethereum’s future growth. Not only is it strengthening in terms of compliance, but it’s also helping to unlock billions of dollars in fractured liquidity that’s spread across the world’s second-biggest blockchain. Grvt can do this because it’s built atop of the ZKsync Atlas technology stack, which uses ZK-rollups to transfer funds between Ethereum and any one of its Layer-2 networks virtually instantly and with ultra-low costs. Having started out as a simple DEX platform, Grvt now wants to become Ethereum’s de facto settlement layer, without compromising DeFi’s decentralized principles. 

“By bridging platforms, we’re giving users effortless access to broader markets and liquidity, tearing down the technical barriers that have traditionally segmented the space,” Hong said. “We see this as setting a new standard for how intuitive and interconnected crypto trading should be.” 

Investors are watching closely as the planned Bitpanda IPO in 2026 signals another major step in the maturation of Europe’s digital asset sector.

Bitpanda targets multi-billion valuation with Frankfurt listing

Bitpanda, one of Europe’s largest crypto exchanges, is preparing an initial public offering in 2026 with a target valuation between €4 billion and €5 billion. The Vienna-based company is reportedly planning to list on the Frankfurt stock exchange, opting against London for its public debut.

The platform, founded in 2014, has grown into a leading retail crypto platform in Europe. It claims more than seven million users, underlining its strong presence in the region. Moreover, consultancy firm EY estimates that Bitpanda controls nearly 60% of Austria’s domestic crypto trading volume, highlighting its dominance in the Austria crypto market.

The timing of the deal appears flexible but focused. The IPO could come as early as the first quarter of 2026, depending on market conditions and regulatory approvals. However, the company is clearly positioning itself to take advantage of favorable sentiment toward digital asset firms entering public markets.

Why Bitpanda chose Frankfurt over London

Bitpanda has selected Frankfurt for its listing, reinforcing the German financial hub’s role as a preferred venue for high-profile European tech and fintech offerings. The company is planning to float its shares on the Frankfurt stock exchange, rather than pursuing a London listing as previously considered.

In August 2025, Bitpanda’s leadership publicly argued that London offered less liquidity than other major hubs such as New York and Frankfurt. That said, Frankfurt’s strong institutional investor base and established regulatory framework seem to have tilted the balance in Germany’s favor.

The exchange has already mandated a group of global banks to lead the flotation. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Deutsche Bank have reportedly been hired to advise on the offering and manage bookbuilding, reflecting the scale and ambition of the transaction. Moreover, this banking syndicate signals that Bitpanda is targeting a broad investor base spanning both traditional finance and growth equity funds.

Bitpanda IPO in the context of crypto exchanges going public

The planned bitpanda ipo comes amid a broader wave of digital asset companies heading toward public markets. In November 2025, U.S.-based crypto exchange Kraken confidentially filed for an IPO, aiming for a valuation of around $20 billion. Other firms, including FalconX, Grayscale, and Blockchain.com, have also discussed potential listings.

In the United States, major crypto-related players moved ahead with their own market debuts in 2025. Circle, the issuer of stablecoin USDC, and trading platform eToro both joined public markets, adding to the momentum. Consequently, investors are increasingly monitoring IPO valuation expectations in the digital asset space as a barometer of sector confidence.

Bitpanda’s transaction, if completed, would further strengthen Europe’s profile as a hub for regulated digital asset businesses. However, it will also face comparison with earlier listings in the U.S. and elsewhere, where investor appetite and post-IPO performance have sometimes been volatile.

Competitive landscape for European crypto exchanges

Bitpanda operates in a crowded field of crypto exchange Europe players that are racing to scale their operations and product lines. The company faces direct competition from Kraken, Binance, and other global exchanges that have expanded aggressively across multiple jurisdictions.

However, Bitpanda’s dominance in its home market and its user-friendly retail focus offer clear advantages. Controlling nearly 60% of Austria’s digital asset trading gives it a strong revenue base and brand recognition. Moreover, its broad product suite, covering cryptocurrencies and other investment instruments, supports its positioning as a multi-asset platform rather than a pure-play exchange.

The IPO proceeds are expected to strengthen Bitpanda’s balance sheet and could fund geographic expansion, new product development, or potential acquisitions. That said, investors will be keen to see how the company differentiates itself in an increasingly competitive European and global landscape.

Frankfurt’s role in Europe’s digital asset capital markets

Frankfurt has long been one of Europe’s principal financial centers, and Bitpanda’s decision adds another high-growth name to its pipeline. While the article does not detail Frankfurt Germany stock exchange trading conditions, the choice suggests strong confidence in local liquidity and regulatory stability.

The listing would also underscore Germany’s ambition to become a leading jurisdiction for regulated digital asset activity. Moreover, a successful offering could encourage other European crypto and fintech players to follow Bitpanda’s path, deepening the ecosystem around public listings in the region.

As markets move toward 2026, attention will focus on execution risk, regulatory developments, and broader sentiment toward tech and growth stocks. However, Bitpanda’s scale, user base, and entrenched position in Austria give it a solid platform from which to attempt one of Europe’s standout crypto-related IPOs.

In summary, Bitpanda is positioning itself for a landmark listing in Frankfurt in 2026, aiming for a valuation of up to €5 billion while leveraging its strong presence in Europe’s crypto market and the growing investor appetite for regulated digital asset businesses.

Through a new integration with Aster, users can now access binance wallet perpetuals in a streamlined, self-custodied environment focused on on-chain derivatives.

Binance Wallet adds on-chain perpetual futures with Aster

Binance Wallet has introduced on-chain perpetual futures trading for web users on BNB Smart Chain, following a strategic partnership with Aster. The new service delivers direct access to perpetual contracts while keeping users in control of their assets through a keyless, self-custody setup.

Initially available on BNB Smart Chain, the integration allows traders to use multiple collateral tokens when opening or managing perpetual positions. Moreover, the platform connects to both crypto and stock-linked markets, expanding the range of instruments available from within the same interface.

Wide collateral support and stock-linked perpetual markets

The new offering inside Binance Wallet supports a broad selection of collateral assets and links to perpetual markets referencing traditional equities. In particular, users can access trading pairs tied to major technology names such as Apple and Nvidia, alongside standard crypto perpetual markets.

Through this collaboration, the Aster infrastructure provides deep liquidity and transparent mark pricing to users of the wallet. Furthermore, the design emphasizes privacy-enhancing features, which aim to improve on typical centralized derivatives experiences while retaining on-chain transparency.

Keyless self-custody and trading incentives

The perpetual trading flow leverages a keyless self-custody setup, allowing users to hold and manage their assets without relying on traditional seed phrases. However, they still maintain full control over positions and collateral, since the trades are executed directly on-chain via the wallet interface.

Perpetual positions opened through Binance Wallet also qualify for the Aster airdrop points program. That said, each trade contributes to a broader pool of incentives, including future trading competitions and other reward initiatives planned by the derivatives platform.

According to the announcement, the introduction of binance wallet perpetuals is being promoted with a dedicated campaign offering up to 200,000 USDT in rewards. In addition, participants in this launch phase can enhance their exposure to the ecosystem by combining regular trading activity with eligibility for loyalty-based distributions.

Launch campaign and outlook

The launch campaign around perpetual trading marks a significant extension of Binance Wallet‘s role in the on-chain derivatives market. Moreover, it highlights how wallet interfaces are increasingly becoming full-featured trading terminals, integrating infrastructure like Aster rather than limiting users to simple transfers.

As the platform evolves, traders will likely watch how liquidity, available collateral, and the range of supported markets grow over time. Overall, the collaboration aligns with the broader shift toward non-custodial access to leveraged products, combining derivatives functionality with the familiarity of a widely used wallet.

In summary, the Aster-powered perpetuals launch inside Binance Wallet delivers on-chain access to crypto and equity-linked contracts, while pairing self-custody control with targeted rewards and liquidity-driven infrastructure.

US regulators and major banks are sharpening their stance as yield bearing stablecoins emerge at the crossroads of crypto innovation and traditional finance.

JPMorgan CFO warns of unregulated parallel banking

During JPMorgan Chase’s fourth-quarter earnings call on January 14, Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum warned that yield-bearing stablecoins could create a dangerous, unregulated alternative to the traditional banking system.

The comments followed a question from Evercore analyst Glenn Schorr about stablecoins and recent lobbying efforts. Moreover, Schorr specifically cited pressure from the American Bankers Association, which has pushed for tighter limits on crypto products that compete directly with bank deposits.

Barnum said JPMorgan supports the GENIUS Act framework for stablecoin oversight. However, he focused his criticism on interest-bearing tokens that closely resemble regulated bank products while operating without equivalent supervision.

He argued that such structures risk creating a parallel banking system. That system, Barnum said, would feature deposit-like products paying interest but lacking capital rules, consumer protections and other regulatory safeguards built up over centuries of banking regulation.

The bank stressed that it backs competition and blockchain innovation. However, JPMorgan opposes any financial architecture that effectively replicates core banking services outside established regulatory frameworks.

Senate draft bill targets stablecoin interest payments

On Monday, the US Senate Banking Committee released an amended Digital Asset Market Clarity Act draft. The updated legislation introduces new limits on how crypto platforms can structure rewards on stablecoin holdings.

The bill would bar digital asset service providers from paying direct interest simply for holding stablecoins. Moreover, this provision is designed to stop these tokens from acting as unregulated deposit accounts that compete head-on with bank deposits.

That said, the proposed law does not prohibit all forms of stablecoin rewards. It explicitly allows incentives linked to staking, governance participation, liquidity provision and other network activities that imply active engagement rather than passive saving.

Lawmakers want to draw a clear line between passive yield and rewards tied to network contribution. This distinction will be central to how regulators classify various crypto products and to any future stablecoin yield restrictions adopted by US agencies.

Beyond interest rules, the Senate bill addresses broader questions around digital asset oversight. It also clarifies how authority over crypto markets should be divided between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Banking sector reaction to stablecoin competition

Across the US, banks increasingly view yield-bearing stablecoins as an existential challenge to their core deposit business. Industry sources described the banking industry crypto response as bordering on panic when these products began to gain traction in 2024.

Stablecoins have already expanded rapidly as tools for payments and settlements. Moreover, they often deliver faster transaction speeds and lower fees than long-standing banking rails, making them attractive for both retail and institutional users.

Adding yield on top of stablecoin balances makes these instruments even more compelling for consumers. By contrast, traditional banks generally pay comparatively low interest on checking and standard savings accounts, even in a higher-rate environment.

Barnum acknowledged that JPMorgan already offers a limited set of crypto-related services. However, he said the bank will either have to match parts of the crypto offering or upgrade existing products wherever new technology can deliver better customer experiences.

The CFO also questioned how much stablecoin yield actually benefits end users once risk is properly priced. In that context, he argued that any emerging parallel financial system must incorporate robust regulation to protect consumers and maintain financial stability.

Regulatory parity and system-wide risk

The ongoing debate over yield bearing stablecoins is increasingly framed as one of regulatory parity. Traditional financial institutions accept that blockchain and tokenized money will play a role, but they insist similar risks should face similar rules.

Barnum raised concerns about system-wide deposit dynamics if stablecoins siphon funds from banks at scale. Moreover, he highlighted the possibility of volatile flows between consumers, crypto platforms and traditional providers, although he stopped short of outlining specific stress scenarios.

The Senate’s Digital Asset Market Clarity Act and the GENIUS Act approach to stablecoin oversight together sketch an emerging US framework. That said, many details remain unresolved, including how to supervise large issuers and how to treat cross-border flows.

For now, Wall Street’s stance reflects a balance between embracing blockchain innovation and defending the regulated banking model. The outcome of the current policy debates will shape how stablecoins, banks and crypto platforms compete and coexist in the US financial system.

In summary, policymakers, regulators and major banks are converging on a common message: stablecoin-based yield can continue only if it operates under clear rules that align with long-standing protections in the traditional banking sector.

Rising competition among industrial-scale Bitcoin miners is intensifying as the bitdeer hashrate becomes a key metric in the race for dominance.

Bitdeer reports 71 EH/s under management

Bitdeer Technologies Group ended December with a total hashrate under management of 71 exahashes per second (EH/s), according to company data. This capacity may place the Singapore-based miner ahead of MARA Holdings Inc. in overall bitcoin miner capacity, though definitions differ between the two firms.

The 71 EH/s figure includes 55.2 EH/s dedicated to self-mining alongside equipment hosted for third-party clients, Bitdeer stated. By comparison, MARA currently lists an energized hashrate capacity of 61.7 EH/s on its official website, suggesting a close rivalry for industry leadership.

MARA had emerged as the largest publicly traded miner by self-generated hashrate since mid-2023, expanding from less than 20 EH/s to more than 60 EH/s by September 2025. However, the comparability between Bitdeer’s reported “total hashrate under management” and MARA’s “energized hashrate” remains uncertain, complicating direct ranking between the two companies.

Self-mining scale and SEALMINER deployment

Bitdeer disclosed that its 55.2 EH/s self-mining capacity is supported by more than 1,100 chips, of which 538 operate under external subscription agreements. Moreover, the company is aggressively expanding its proprietary hardware footprint through deployment of SEALMINER chips across its campuses.

“Bitdeer reported 71 EH/s of capacity as of end December (~6% of the global hashrate), +18% month over month and +229% year over year,” Matt Sigel, Head of Research at VanEck, wrote in a post on X. He added that, like many rivals, the miner is selling virtually all coins mined, and more, to finance its infrastructure shift toward artificial intelligence workloads.

The company mined 636 bitcoins in December 2025, sharply higher than the 145 bitcoins produced in December 2024, according to its quarterly report. That said, this 339% year-over-year increase coincides with Bitdeer phasing out third-party rigs in favor of its own hardware, sharpening its focus on self mining hashrate.

SEAL04-1 chip efficiency versus MARA fleet metrics

Bitdeer’s SEAL04-1 chip has become central to its scaling strategy. The company reports that the chip delivers energy efficiency of roughly 6–7 joules per terahash (J/TH) at the chip level under low-voltage operating conditions. This specification highlights what Bitdeer presents as strong sealminer chip efficiency in its latest generation designs.

By contrast, MARA cites a “fleet energy efficiency” of 19 J/TH for its installed base. However, the metrics are not directly comparable. Bitdeer’s data reflects chip-level performance, while MARA reports a fleetwide average that incorporates system-level overhead. As a result, any simple one-to-one comparison between the two efficiency figures risks being misleading.

The rising bitdeer hashrate is therefore intertwined with hardware design decisions, data center engineering, and access to low-cost power. Moreover, chip-level improvements can compound over large fleets, giving operators with proprietary technology a structural advantage in both margins and scalability.

AI and high-performance computing pivot

Beyond Bitcoin, Bitdeer is pursuing an ai datacenter pivot to capture demand from artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (HPC) customers. The company reports construction and expansion projects at eight sites in Canada, Ethiopia, Norway, and the U.S. states of Ohio, Tennessee, and Washington.

These campuses collectively host 1,152 GPUs dedicated to AI and HPC workloads, complementing the firm’s ASIC-based mining operations. Moreover, the push into AI and HPC is reshaping the economics of traditional bitcoin mining, as operators repurpose or design facilities to service multiple high-density compute verticals.

The broader artificial intelligence sector’s growth has already influenced how miners approach capital allocation and energy procurement. That said, balancing power distribution between Bitcoin mining and AI compute will remain a key strategic question for operators like Bitdeer as they pursue diversified revenue streams.

MARA’s Antminer fleet and BTC treasury strategy

While Bitdeer emphasizes proprietary chips and AI infrastructure, MARA continues to rely heavily on Bitmain‘s Antminer ASICs. The company operates 18 data centers and reports an energized hashrate of 61.7 EH/s, signaling a large-scale, standardized fleet of third-party hardware.

MARA also follows a distinct balance sheet approach. The company maintains a strategy of retaining mined coins, holding more than 55,000 bitcoins, which constitutes the second-largest public miner treasury among listed firms. By comparison, Bitdeer holds 2,017 bitcoins, according to its disclosures, reflecting a more liquidity-focused stance.

This contrast underscores the broader bitdeer vs mara debate in the market: Bitdeer appears more willing to sell production and reinvest in infrastructure, while MARA leans on its bitcoin treasury as a strategic reserve. Moreover, MARA’s long-term holding policy could amplify upside or downside exposure to price cycles.

Outlook for large-scale Bitcoin miners

The rapid expansion of industrial miners since mid-2023, including Bitdeer and MARA, has reshaped competitive dynamics in the sector. Both companies now command tens of exahashes in capacity, yet they diverge in hardware strategy, capital allocation, and sensitivity to the AI infrastructure boom.

As mara energized hashrate and Bitdeer’s total hashrate continue to evolve, investors will likely focus on efficiency metrics, regulatory risk, and access to low-cost energy. Moreover, integration of AI and HPC workloads into existing mining campuses could become a decisive factor for long-term profitability and resilience.

In summary, Bitdeer’s 71 EH/s under management, SEALMINER-based efficiency gains, and AI-oriented data center buildout position it as a formidable rival to MARA. However, differences in metrics, hardware suppliers, and treasury management mean the leading role among public miners will remain contested as the market moves through the next phase of Bitcoin and AI expansion.

EMCD, un ecosistema crypto con origini nell’infrastruttura di mining, ha riportato un 2025 solido caratterizzato da una rapida espansione dei prodotti, una crescente adozione globale e un cambiamento strategico verso servizi cripto-finanziari integrati. Mentre l’industria si spostava dai cicli speculativi verso l’infrastruttura e l’utilità nel mondo reale, EMCD si è posizionata come una piattaforma focalizzata su scalabilità, rendimento e utilizzo quotidiano delle criptovalute.

Le operazioni di mining dell’azienda hanno continuato ad espandersi nonostante l’aumento della difficoltà della rete e il restringimento dei margini. L’hashrate totale di EMCD ha raggiunto 34,11 EH/s, con un incremento del 58% rispetto all’anno precedente, supportato da oltre 66.500 miner attivi in più di 100 paesi. Nel solo 2025, i partecipanti hanno minato 4.550 BTC, con una crescita particolarmente forte registrata in Nord America, LATAM, MENA e APAC — regioni che stanno sempre più plasmando il panorama globale del mining. Il supporto per 17 criptovalute minabili ha permesso ai miner di ottimizzare i rendimenti in risposta alle mutevoli condizioni di mercato.

Allo stesso tempo, EMCD ha registrato una crescente domanda per prodotti finanziari che generano rendimento e sono efficienti in termini di capitale. Il suo prodotto di risparmio Coinhold ha distribuito $3,7 milioni in premi durante l’anno, ha superato i 13.500 titolari attivi e ha aumentato il valore totale bloccato di oltre il 45%, superando i $60 milioni in asset bloccati. Un saldo medio utente di $4.200 suggerisce un coinvolgimento sostenuto oltre la speculazione a breve termine, riflettendo un cambiamento più ampio verso le criptovalute come strumento finanziario piuttosto che un semplice asset di trading.

L’attività di trading sulla piattaforma EMCD è aumentata costantemente, con un volume superiore a 90 milioni di dollari e oltre 400.000 operazioni concluse nel 2025. Il lancio di oltre 30 nuove coppie di trading, tra cui TON e DOGE, ha allineato la piattaforma con gli ecosistemi emergenti e la domanda regionale.

L’adozione da parte degli utenti è accelerata parallelamente allo sviluppo del prodotto. EMCD ha acquisito oltre 160.000 nuovi utenti durante l’anno, espandendo la localizzazione a 25 lingue. Entro la fine dell’anno, l’ecosistema aveva una presenza attiva in sei continenti, riflettendo una strategia deliberata di espansione regolamentata e specifica per mercato piuttosto che una portata globale indifferenziata.

L’esecuzione del prodotto è stata un punto focale durante l’anno, poiché EMCD ha lanciato prestiti garantiti da criptovalute, carte di pagamento gratuite, prodotti di staking migliorati e flussi di onboarding semplificati in regioni selezionate. Un’esperienza completa di portafoglio e carta integrata nell’app mini di Telegram, insieme a trasferimenti istantanei tramite email e numero di telefono, mirava a ridurre l’attrito e a colmare le esperienze utente tra Web2 e Web3. L’azienda sta attualmente lavorando per espandere l’accesso a questi prodotti in ulteriori giurisdizioni.

Guardando al futuro, EMCD intende dare priorità all’espansione geografica guidata dalla conformità, a integrazioni più profonde con partner esterni e a continui investimenti in sicurezza e infrastruttura. L’azienda afferma che la sua strategia a lungo termine è incentrata sull’affidabilità e sull’utilità pratica, posizionando i servizi crypto come strumenti finanziari quotidiani piuttosto che strumenti speculativi.

“Il 2025 ha chiarito che la tecnologia dimostra il suo valore attraverso l’affidabilità e casi d’uso reali, non promesse,” ha dichiarato Sofia Goldman, Chief Creative and Marketing Officer di EMCD. “Il nostro obiettivo è stato quello di costruire un’infrastruttura resiliente e servizi trasparenti su cui gli utenti possano fare affidamento indipendentemente dalle condizioni di mercato.”

Figures are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice or an offer of investment services.

About EMCD.io

EMCD.io è un ecosistema cripto completo — originariamente lanciato nel 2018 come uno dei mining pool più quotati a livello globale — che ora include un wallet multi-asset sicuro, trading peer-to-peer senza commissioni, prestiti garantiti da criptovalute, carte di pagamento, prodotti cripto legati al risparmio disponibili in determinate giurisdizioni. La piattaforma serve una comunità globale in crescita con un focus sul design incentrato sull’utente, la sicurezza e l’utilità nel mondo reale. 

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