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$BTC
2025 didn't turn out to be the year many expected. Despite having a pro-crypto administration, the markets faced significant headwinds, and many assets struggled to find momentum. But before you conclude that the "crypto hype" is over, let's look at the data.
The bears are out in full force, claiming we’ll never see new All-Time Highs (ATHs) and that "alts will bleed to zero." Just like in 2015, 2018, and 2022—they are likely missing the bigger picture.
1. The Tide is Turning: Global Liquidity
The crypto market is essentially a liquidity barometer. While 2025 felt stagnant, the underlying plumbing of the global financial system is shifting:
The Fed’s Pivot: After years of tightening, the Federal Reserve has officially begun buying $40 billion in T-bills per month as of December 2025. While they call it "reserve management," it is effectively injecting cash back into the system.
The 2026 Easing: Projections for 2026 suggest even more aggressive easing. Analysts expect the Fed funds rate to drop toward a terminal level of 3%–3.25%, creating a much friendlier environment for risk assets.
The "One Big Beautiful Bill": The administration's new tax policies—including increased child tax credits and a projected $1,000–$2,000 increase in tax refunds per family—will put more disposable income into the hands of retail investors by early 2026.
2. The Institutional "Dam" is About to Break
We often think crypto is "huge," but in the eyes of Traditional Finance (TradFi), it’s still a startup.
Market Cap Reality: Silver currently holds a market cap roughly 30% higher than the entire crypto industry. Just four US tech giants alone have a larger combined valuation than every coin in existence.
The Massive Cash Pile: Money-market funds are sitting on a record $7.5 to $8 trillion. This is a "wall of cash" waiting for a reason to move.
The Regulatory Green Light: The SEC and Congress are currently pushing through the Digital Asset Market Structure bill. This isn't just more paperwork; it’s the legal framework that allows massive pension funds and insurance companies to finally enter the space.
3. Perspective: The "Correction" is Natural
It’s easy to feel bearish when you look at the last six months, but look at the last two years. Bitcoin and several mid-caps have pulled 8x to 20x returns. For comparison, it took Gold and Silver nearly 40 years to achieve those kinds of moves.
After such explosive growth, a period of "boring" price action or a 6–8 month correction is not a death spiral—it’s healthy.
The Bottom Line
We are currently in the "Disbelief" phase. The world’s largest central bank is starting the printers, a pro-crypto regulatory bill is on the horizon, and trillions of dollars are sitting on the sidelines in money-market fun