GEMINI

Still Neutral 👀

Short term holders were under heavy pressure when their average losses crossed 10 percent, which in this cycle usually marked a capitulation phase and the formation of a bottom. That phase now seems to be ending. STHs are still holding losses, but the pressure has eased, with the average loss around 6.4 percent, based on the gap between the current BTC price and the STH cost basis.

This matters because unrealized profit is not a negative signal, especially for short term holders. It is psychologically much easier to hold profits than losses. That said, this only applies up to a point. When unrealized profits grow too large, they often lead to selling and distribution. From here, the key thing to watch is how the market behaves as price moves closer to the STH cost basis.

Profit realization by long term holders has slowed significantly, with net profits now averaging around 12.8K #BTC per week. This is a sharp contrast to previous cycle tops, where weekly figures climbed above 100K BTC.

Selling activity remains present but at a much softer pace than in earlier distribution phases. This lower level of profit taking suggests reduced exit pressure from long term participants, reflecting a more restrained and patient market environment.

#Bitcoin is approaching the Short Term Holder Whale Realized Price from underneath. This area is closely watched by the market, as a breakout above it may indicate strengthening demand and renewed buying interest from larger short term holders. Failure to break through, on the other hand, could lead to hesitation in price action and a brief cooling phase.

🔥 So far, 2026 has added $260B to the total crypto Market Cap.

🔥 HUGE: #Silver flipped #NVIDIA to become the second largest asset by Market Cap.

2.6X larger than #BTC

#Bitcoin entered 2025 with historically low price volatility, a shift highlighted by ARK Invest as a key sign of market maturity. Reduced price fluctuations suggest a more stable trading environment, which could improve risk adjusted returns over time and strengthen Bitcoin’s position as a viable long term asset for investors.

Still Neutral 👀

The market is reaching an important turning point for #BTC. If price can reclaim the Short Term Holder cost basis, it would mean recent buyers are back in profit, a condition that often supports renewed upside strength and broader participation.

This tends to improve overall market confidence. Failure to reclaim this level would suggest the recovery remains weak, keeping BTC in a consolidation or recovery phase rather than a strong continuation.

Over the last 24 hours, the crypto market saw heavy liquidations as 105,945 traders were forced out of their positions, totaling $219.06 million in losses.
The biggest hit came from Hyperliquid, where a single #BTCUSD trade worth $5.10 million was liquidated ❗️

Market activity shows strong time based pressure. Even after #Bitcoin rebounded from the November 22 low to around $92.7k, realized losses kept rising. The 30 day #SMA of Entity Adjusted Realized Loss reached about $555M per day, the highest since the FTX collapse. This means losses are being realized during strength. Top buyers are exiting on rebounds instead of holding, showing frustration and reduced conviction.

Selling pressure from Long Term Holders continues to ease, even though overall LTH supply is still trending lower. The sharp distribution seen in Q3-Q4 2025 has clearly cooled, signaling a slowdown in long term selling.

For a sustainable upside move, the market needs LTH supply to turn positive again. That shift occurs when maturation supply overtakes LTH spending, a structure last seen in Aug 2022-Sep 2023 and Mar 2024-Jul 2025, both of which led to stronger, more durable recoveries.

The #Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has shifted from greed to neutral 👀

#Bitcoin is trading around $97K and on chain models are starting to adjust. The Short Term Holder Cost Basis sits at $98.4K, showing recent buyers are slightly underwater, making this a key short term level. Active Investors Mean at $87.8K confirms most active participants are still in profit.

The True Market Mean at $81.1K marks a strong underlying support zone. Realized Price at $56.2K highlights continued long term holder strength. Overall, price is facing short term pressure while the broader structure remains strong.

A strong increase in first time participants is becoming visible across #Ethereum’s on chain data. Month over month activity retention shows a clear rise in the “New” cohort, meaning a growing number of wallets are interacting with the network for the first time over the past 30 days.

Recent activity is not simply existing users becoming more active but a fresh inflow of new participants entering the ecosystem. If these wallets remain engaged beyond initial transactions, it could support stronger network effects and more durable growth. For now, retention will be the key metric to confirm whether this influx represents lasting adoption or short term interest.

Despite Ethereum outperforming #Bitcoin since the January lows, on chain data shows a clear difference in holder confidence. ETH is up 18.6 percent compared to BTC’s 13.3 percent gain, yet Ethereum’s SOPR remains below 1 at 0.992, meaning aggregated losses realized are still outweighing profits. Many ETH holders are using the rally as a chance to exit and reduce risk rather than commit to trend continuation.

Bitcoin tells the opposite story. With SOPR at 1.009 near the 97K level, BTC holders are comfortably realizing profits, a behavior typically associated with stronger conviction and healthier market structure. The contrast highlights BTC as the higher confidence trend, while #ETH still needs sustained demand and a SOPR flip above 1 to confirm that sentiment is truly shifting.

In the past six months, corporate #Bitcoin treasuries held by both public and private companies have expanded from roughly 854,000 BTC to about 1.11 million BTC. This net increase of nearly 260,000 BTC translates to an average monthly accumulation of around 43,000 BTC.

The data points to a consistent inflow of corporate capital into Bitcoin, signaling stronger balance sheet integration and long term conviction. Rather than reacting to short term price movements, companies appear to be positioning Bitcoin as a structural asset within their financial strategy.

The #Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has shifted from neutral to greed 👀

Gold: $4644
Silver: $91.67

What you’re seeing isn’t just a commodity supercycle.. It’s a full blown currency collapse.

And for those who think this is bullish?

YOU’RE WRONG.

Last time this happened, stocks dropped 58%.

Here’s why I’m worried:

The dollar is losing value right in front of your eyes.

The bond market finally called the treasury's bluff.

Nobody believes the US can pay back $40T debt in real terms anymore.

For 40 years, treasuries were risk free.

But now… THEY ARE THE RISK.

Large players are dumping debt aggressively and forcing a re-pricing of the entire system.

They aren't buying metals to make money…

THE GOAL IS EXIT.

This is how it works:

Dump the bonds, spike the yields, force the Fed to panic-print to buy their own debt (Yield Curve Control).

Stocks rip higher, but it's just inflation.

You pay tax on "profits" that are useless.

Real estate freezes, prices stay high on paper, but nobody can afford the mortgage. Liquidity completely vanishes.

Once the psychology shifts, the velocity of money explodes.

People will dump paychecks immediately for anything tangible, like metals.

YOU NEED TO WATCH THE FLOWS.

Recent price action between $80K and $95K reflects a prolonged consolidation phase, shaped by the positioning of short term holders. Data from the Short Term Holder Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap reveals a heavy concentration of cost basis near current levels, creating persistent overhead supply. Rally attempts have repeatedly stalled as recent buyers sell into strength, keeping price capped despite multiple recovery efforts.

However, demand above $80K has remained resilient following the drawdown, providing a solid floor and limiting downside risk. This dynamic has resulted in price staying tightly anchored within the range. A decisive move will depend on whether demand can fully absorb remaining supply or if sellers regain control and force a breakdown.