魔怔姐

The Three Main Themes Are Expected to Trigger Friday's Market Rally! These A-Share Sectors Are Set to Soar!
Today's market movement was somewhat 'tense': the Shanghai Index declined slightly by 0.33%, while the Shenzhen and ChiNext Indices rebounded after a dip and closed with small gains. Overall, more indices rose than fell. However, the majority of individual stocks also rose, with a surge in limit-down stocks—71 stocks hit the daily limit down, and 313 stocks dropped more than 5%, marking the strongest profit-loss effect in recent days. The biggest losers were mainly stocks that had surged recently, such as commercial aerospace, where many stocks experienced consecutive daily limit-downs, some reactions being excessive. Normally, stocks that have fallen sharply will see a rebound tomorrow. After the market closed, the central bank announced that starting January 19, 2026, it will cut the refinancing and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points. This news is sufficient to trigger a market recovery tomorrow. Commercial aerospace is likely to rebound. However, the overall gains have been too large, making it difficult for ordinary investors to participate. Besides, there are several key directions worth paying close attention to:

First Theme: Semiconductor Industry Chain — Price Hike + Capacity Expansion Driving the Surge, with Packaging and Equipment Leading the Charge
The semiconductor sector has already 'pulled ahead' today. The storage chip and National Big Fund holdings concepts rose by 2.35% and 2.30%, respectively, with net inflows of nearly 10 billion yuan from institutional funds. This isn't speculative hype—it's backed by real, substantial positive developments:

Storage chip prices continue to soar: The price of 8GB DDR4 memory has surged from $1.4 in January last year to $9.3 today, a staggering 564% increase! Even the packaging and testing segment can't resist, with industry leaders like Powerchip and Hua Dong announcing a 30% price hike and warning, 'If supply is insufficient, we'll raise prices again.' On the A-share market, Jiangbolong surged 9.39% today, while Bawei Storage announced a 224% year-on-year revenue increase in Q4 last year, with solid earnings performance.

Equipment manufacturers benefit too: TSMC recently announced its capital expenditure for 2026 will reach $52-56 billion, a 27% increase from this year, with a significant portion allocated to lithography and etching machines. Today, Zhongwei Company rose 5.28%, while leading packaging and testing firms like Changdian Technology and Tongfu Weidian have entered a second wave of gains, likely to continue their strong momentum tomorrow.

Jiangbolong (301308): The most direct beneficiary of storage chip price hikes, with Q4 revenue doubling year-on-year. Today, it saw net institutional inflows of 978 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest.

Changdian Technology (600584): A global leader in packaging and testing, its 3nm Chiplet packaging technology has already been verified by Apple and NVIDIA, and it's about to secure major orders.

Zhongwei Company (688012): A core stock in semiconductor equipment, with leading etching machine technology in China, and stands to benefit most from TSMC's expansion.

Second Theme: Precious Metals — Gold and Silver Hit New Highs, Driven by Safe-Haven Demand and Industrial Demand
The precious metals sector quietly rose 3.35% today, with both gold and silver prices reaching new all-time highs. Don't assume this is pure speculation—four solid fundamentals are supporting further gains:

Central banks buying gold aggressively: China's central bank has been increasing gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, and central banks worldwide are stockpiling gold for risk hedging, ensuring long-term demand.

Silver is even more volatile than gold: Solar energy, new energy vehicles, and AI servers are all competing for silver, but supply can't keep up, widening the supply-demand gap. Today, silver's gains far outpaced gold.

Investors are voting with their money: Although institutional funds remained cautious overall, precious metals ETFs were heavily bought, and leveraged positions increased in the futures market—market sentiment has clearly turned bullish.

Sichuan Gold (001337): Surged to a daily limit-up today, benefiting from its 'small gold mine + high elasticity' attributes, making it a favorite among speculative traders.

Shengda Resources (000603): Over 70% of its business comes from silver, and the surge in industrial demand is directly boosting earnings. Its trading volume has been consistently rising recently.

Third Theme: Consumption — Policy 'Orders' + Oversold Rebound, with Appliances and Retail Leading
The Minister of Commerce today unveiled a major move: launching 'consumer goods trade-in' in 2026 and activating consumption in lower-tier markets. This isn't empty talk—combined with the central bank's recent announcement of room for RRR and interest rate cuts, a 'reversal from hardship' is imminent for the consumption sector:

Appliance trade-in: Demand for replacing large appliances like air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines will be ignited. Although giants like Gree and Midea didn't surge today, institutional funds have already quietly started accumulating shares.

Retail channels benefit directly: A surge in consumption in lower-tier markets will make offline retailers like Suning.com and Yonghui Superstores prime targets for funds, given the high safety of the 'policy + low valuation' combination.

Gree Electric (000651): A leader in home appliances, with a valuation as low as 10 times. Once the trade-in policy is implemented, air conditioner sales could exceed expectations.

Yonghui Supermarket (601933): A leading community retailer with deep penetration into lower-tier markets. The stock has recently shown volume spikes at the bottom, indicating signs of fund testing.

Risk Warning: Be Cautious with These Two Sectors!
AI Applications and Commercial Aerospace: These two sectors fell 1.86% and 2.56% respectively today, with net outflows exceeding 47 billion and 30 billion yuan from institutional funds. The recent speculation has gone too far—don't try to catch a falling knife.

Lioo Shares (002131): Has risen 96% over the past 10 consecutive days and will begin停牌 (suspension) for核查 (review) tomorrow. Its 'small proportion of AI business revenue' indicates pure speculation. It may gap down after resuming trading—avoid it at all costs.

Summary: What to Do Tomorrow?
Focus on Jiangbolong and Changdian Technology in semiconductors, monitor Sichuan Gold and Shengda Resources in precious metals, and pay attention to Gree Electric and Yonghui Supermarket in consumption. Remember: don't chase stocks that have already doubled. Follow policies and fundamentals—this is the real way to succeed!

Everyone says diplomacy is a moment that reflects a country's dignity, yet the meeting between Lee Jae-myung and Sanae Hasegawa was nothing short of two actors performing on stage. To be honest, South Korea not only lacks dignity but also has no sense of historical awareness. When Japan invaded and colonized Korea for so many years, today's South Korea not only forgot its hatred but also shows excessive flattery toward Japan.
They're even performing drumming on stage—what are they celebrating? They clearly lack any political awareness. How can they lead a nation properly? Nevertheless, it must be said that both Japanese and South Koreans have quite a good artistic sense.

既然格陵兰岛保不住了，丹麦可以拿出来拍卖，发动大家（国家和个人都可以）都去竞标，把价格喊高一点，美国也得花更高的价格买，丹麦也能得到更大收益。

The opportunity for the United States to seize Greenland may be fading, as multiple countries including Germany and France are set to 'send troops' to Greenland and join Denmark in defending the island! On the evening of January 14th local time, Germany stated that, in response to Denmark's request, it will dispatch 13 soldiers to Greenland on January 15th. France, Sweden, and Norway have also announced plans to send military personnel to Greenland. These are Denmark's European allies, and this time they seem to have recognized the seriousness of the situation, not only offering verbal support but also taking concrete actions. Once military personnel from multiple European countries arrive, Greenland's defense will become 'stronger.' At that point, it will be much harder for the United States to forcibly take control. If the United States resorts to military force, it will be facing not just Denmark, but also France, Germany, Sweden, and Norway. It must be said that Denmark's invitation to its European allies to station troops is indeed a brilliant move.

After the failure of the acquisition plan for Chinese lithium batteries, Indian netizens went wild on Reddit, launching fierce attacks and blaming China for obstructing their domestic battery cell manufacturing initiative. They had expected to easily obtain battery technology licenses by paying a fee, but now their investment has gone down the drain.
India is considering replacing the technology with Japanese and South Korean alternatives, but the cost would increase by 30%, making it highly impractical. As a result, Reliance's lithium battery project has now completely fallen through...

看到一则新闻，七国集团要动手了，妄图逼迫中国“签稀土版广场协议”，一边决定减少对中国稀土的依赖，又一边对我国的稀土进行最低价格的设定，想以此来瓦解我国的稀土体系。
我认为七国集团的套路就是搞“价格操控”，想用行政手段给中国稀土定底价，说的更直白点，就是想搅黄我国的稀土产业。
他们这套路可不是头一回玩了，当年的广场协议、卢浮宫协议，都是靠联手操控汇率搞霸权，坑了不少国家。现在又想用这招对付我国稀土，我们一定要警惕起来。
我们国家的稀土从开采到加工的全产业链都很成熟，全球近70%的产量和九成以上的冶炼产能都在我们这，技术和规模目前是没有对手的。
想靠违背市场规律的手段打压我们中国产业，我看西方国家纯属痴心妄想。

中巴边界划定竟然需要印度承认？
日前，印度官方发言，说喀喇昆仑走廊是属于印度的，他们不承认1963年中巴边界协定。
昆仑山是印度的，那么玉虚宫元始天尊住哪里？西王母住哪？青丘女帝白浅去印度拜师了？中国的昆仑仙山是印度的？谭嗣同的去留肝胆两昆仑该怎么解释？

我已提前一周精准预判1月14日为大盘高点；现在，我再提前一周为大家解析下周大盘的运行节奏。
从周线格局来看，本周大盘若能收出一根调整K线，将更利于后续行情展开——这也就意味着，明天大盘最好再下探一日，击穿4080点整数关口。
一旦达成这一条件，下周行情会更易把握，走势也将更为稳健，且反弹趋势有望延续至下周五。
不过需要注意，若明天大盘下破4080点后直接开启反弹，那么下周的走势就会相对复杂：大概率前两个交易日延续调整，周三前后才会启动反弹，而这波反弹则有望跨周延伸至1月26日。
总而言之，明天的盘面走向，将直接决定下周大盘的运行路径。此前的大盘预判均已精准兑现，下周的节奏大概率也不例外。

Regarding the future trend of the A-share market, I believe the market is likely to form a double-top pattern in the coming period. The expected height of the rebound over the next 2-3 days is anticipated to reach the 4140-4150 point range.
It should be noted that a large number of trapped positions are accumulated in the 4150-4190 point range, and these positions are mostly concentrated in high-priced stocks, making it difficult to escape these positions in the short term.
Previously, I have repeatedly mentioned that there are only two key entry points for the current market: one is near the previous peak at 4098 points, and the other is near the previous high at 4034 points.
In terms of specific operations, if positioning is completed near 4098 points, one could consider taking profits when the market rebounds to the 4140-4150 point range. The index may face a possible pullback after reaching higher levels, potentially retracing back to 4098 points or even declining to around 4034 points, followed by a phase of range-bound consolidation.

400 billion yuan in additional 'tech red envelopes' have been implemented! Which companies will be the first to 'eat their fill'?
The central bank has taken strong measures to support technological innovation! On January 15, Vice Governor Zou Lan of the central bank clearly stated that the loan quota for technological innovation and equipment upgrading has been increased from 800 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan, an additional 400 billion yuan in one go. Particularly significant is the formal inclusion of private small and medium-sized enterprises with high R&D investment into the support scope, effectively providing tech companies with a massive 'low-interest credit card', allowing them to no longer worry about R&D funding.

1. The 400 billion yuan in additional funds precisely address pain points for tech enterprises
This 400 billion yuan in additional funding is akin to a timely rain for tech companies. Hard-core technology sectors such as chips, AI, and biomedicine have always been capital-intensive fields—building a single chip production line can cost hundreds of billions, and training a single large AI model can cost tens of millions. Previously, many small and medium-sized enterprises possessed core technologies but lacked funding, unable to purchase equipment or hire talent, and thus missed valuable development opportunities.

Now, not only has the central bank increased the loan quota, but it has also offered preferential low interest rates, effectively providing R&D 'advance funding' so that companies can focus entirely on innovation. More importantly, private small and medium-sized enterprises with high R&D investment have been officially included in the support scope. This move directly打通s the 'capillaries' of technological innovation, allowing hidden champions buried within industrial chains—such as semiconductor material manufacturers or industrial software development teams—to also benefit from policy dividends, no longer excluded due to their size.

2. Three types of enterprises will benefit first, securing the core areas of policy dividends
This 400 billion yuan is not a 'flood irrigation' but rather precise 'drip irrigation'. The following three categories of enterprises will be the first to reap the benefits:

1. Semiconductor/Chip Industry Chain: The 'main force' driving domestic substitution
Chips, lithography machines, and other 'bottleneck' areas are key national breakthrough directions. The recent expansion of the quota directly benefits semiconductor equipment, materials, and design companies. Whether it's companies developing etching machines or EDA software, or small and medium-sized enterprises supplying Huawei or SMIC, as long as their R&D investment meets standards, they can easily obtain low-interest loans. Ultimately, whoever achieves breakthroughs in 'bottleneck' technologies will seize the strategic high ground of policy dividends.

2. AI and Smart Manufacturing: The 'core brain' of future factories
Large AI models, industrial software, and industrial robots are the key drivers of smart manufacturing. Previously, many factories wanted to advance automation but were constrained by the high cost of high-end equipment and systems. With increased loan quotas for technological upgrades, companies can use low-interest loans to purchase equipment and build systems, accelerating the transformation of production lines into 'dark factories'. This also means that companies focusing on AI algorithms and industrial internet platforms—such as those providing intelligent driving solutions for automakers or building MES systems for factories—may see explosive growth in orders.

3. Biomedicine and New Materials: The 'patient capital' for long R&D cycles
R&D in biomedicine and high-end new materials often takes over ten years, and the long investment period has deterred many small and medium-sized enterprises. The arrival of low-interest loans injects 'patient capital' into these companies—pharmaceutical firms can now confidently advance clinical trials, and material companies can safely build laboratories. Especially innovative pharmaceutical companies with R&D investment exceeding 20% and specialized composite materials research teams will become key targets for policy support, as domestic vaccines, cancer drugs, and aerospace materials are all 'national heavyweights' vital to national economy and people's livelihood.

3. The benefits of technological innovation will reach the entire population—hard-core R&D is the only way forward
This 400 billion yuan in policy benefits is not only relevant to tech enterprises. The state's investment in supporting technological R&D is essentially planting seeds for the future: when companies break through core technologies, they not only drive the upgrading of entire industrial chains but also create numerous high-paying jobs; and once chips, AI, and other technologies achieve self-reliance, the smartphones, cars, and medical devices we use daily will become more advanced and more affordable. The dividends of technological innovation will eventually permeate every aspect of our lives.

Of course, under the policy windfall, companies must stay true to their core mission. The original intention of low-interest loans is to support R&D and foster innovation—not to let companies buy financial products or speculate in stocks. Those who merely seek to 'ride the subsidy wave' or exploit policy loopholes will ultimately be weeded out by the market; only those who genuinely invest funds in laboratories and talent development can truly seize this opportunity and grow into the next 'Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL)'.

In fact, the 400 billion yuan in additional funding is just the beginning. From the central bank increasing loan quotas to continuous follow-up from venture capital funds and industry investment funds, the state is paving the way for tech enterprises with 'real money'. In the coming years, the hard-core players in sectors such as semiconductors, AI, and biomedicine will undoubtedly enter their own golden age.

The central bank suddenly cut interest rates! Will your deposit interest go down? How much can you save on your mortgage?
Urgent notice! The central bank has unexpectedly lowered interest rates today! Various structural tool rates dropped by 0.25 percentage points, with the one-year refinancing rate now at 1.25%!
Those saving money or repaying mortgages, take note! Will your deposit interest decrease? How much can you save on your mortgage? Let's break it down in plain language!
First, clarify: The central bank had already signaled a rate cut and reserve requirement reduction in 2026—this move aims to lower financing costs for small and medium enterprises and tech innovation sectors, stabilizing the economy—no need to panic!
Quick answers to the key questions affecting your wallet:
Deposit rates: Likely to 'drop short-term, rise long-term'!
Short-term deposits (within 1 year, e.g., 3-month, 6-month) may drop further—some smaller banks have already reduced their 3-month rate to 0.95%;
But 3-year and 5-year fixed deposits may increase (e.g., a rural bank in Henan raised its 3-year rate to 1.73%), and large-denomination certificates of deposit remain attractive (1%-2%). Focus on these two types when saving!
Mortgage holders: You can save money! Some people are already benefiting!
Housing fund loans: Reduced by 0.25 percentage points starting January 1—first-home loans over 5 years now at 2.6%! For a 500,000 loan over 20 years, you save over 61 per month, more than 700 annually;
Commercial loans: Pay attention to your repricing date! Those repriced on January 1 now enjoy an LPR of 3.5%—a 1 million loan over 30 years saves 19,000 in total interest. Prudent borrowers, keep an eye on this!

The封单比 (封单 ratio) is a key order book indicator for assessing the strength of a stock's涨停 (limit-up). It can be specifically divided into the following three scenarios:
1. A封单比 less than 1: Indicates a low level of封单 (limit order volume), suggesting weak willingness of major players to lock in the涨停. In such cases, if there is concentrated selling pressure in the market, the stock price is highly likely to break the涨停 and fall back, representing a weak涨停.
2. A封单比 greater than 1 but less than 5: This is the typical封单 range in the market, corresponding to moderate涨停 strength. If a stock maintains this封单 ratio throughout the day without experiencing significant selling pressure, it can be considered a secondary-strong涨停, a situation commonly seen in non-leader stocks.
3. A封单比 greater than 5: This range is a typical characteristic of strong涨停, usually observed in sector leader stocks. A high封单比 not only reflects strong market control by major funds but also indicates minimal market divergence—despite some selling pressure, the封单 is difficult to break, and outside funds typically cannot queue in to buy.
These are the three core criteria for evaluating封单比, serving as foundational content for order book analysis. Mastering this indicator allows for a more accurate understanding of the strength and weakness behind a stock's涨停.

The A-share market shows a shrinking volume adjustment pattern, with the Shanghai Index experiencing fluctuating declines. The support from the 5-day moving average is weak, and the 10-day moving average is likely to face downward pressure. Market enthusiasm has significantly cooled, trading volume has sharply contracted, and the short-term downward trend may continue. It is recommended to maintain a low position and wait for stabilization before gradually increasing positions in batches.
In the Asia-Pacific markets, the overall trend is predominantly negative with more declines than gains. The Nikkei Index dipped slightly by 0.4%, while South Korea's stock market defied the trend, rising 1.5% and hitting a new historical high; the Hong Kong market rebounded after a bottoming out, with the Hang Seng Index slightly down 0.22% and the Hang Seng Tech Index declining further to 1.2%. From a valuation perspective, Hong Kong stocks are currently in a notably low range, with corrections largely completed, leaving greater upside potential ahead.
Combined trading volume for both markets reached 2.91 trillion yuan, a reduction of 1 trillion yuan from the previous trading day, indicating a clear decline in market activity. On the individual stock level, more stocks declined than rose, with over 2,200 stocks rising and over 2,800 stocks falling. Based on volume patterns, when the combined trading volume drops to the 2 trillion yuan level, a阶段性 bottom signal may emerge. Investors should remain patient and wait for market stabilization.
Sector performance shows clear divergence. Sectors that have seen significant gains previously—such as commercial aerospace, satellites, artificial intelligence, and communication equipment—still face potential downward pressure in the short term and should not be blindly bottom-fished. Conversely, underperforming sectors such as software, pharmaceuticals, securities, insurance, and elderly care, along with relatively strong performers like rare metals, rare earths, photolithography machines, and new energy, may be worth watching during pullbacks.
Overall, the market's short-term cooling is evident, and a significant rebound is unlikely. The Shanghai Index is expected to remain in a range-bound consolidation between the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. Strategy-wise, investors should avoid recently high-performing stocks to prevent risks from high-level corrections; instead, focus on low-level sectors that are just starting to rise and capitalize on their catch-up opportunities.

The false bullish pattern has formed a bottom and stabilized, can the market see a rebound tomorrow?
Today's market rose initially but then retreated, with consolidation and further shrinking trading volume. The closing candle was a shrinking-volume false bullish line, successfully stabilizing at the 4100-point psychological level, with the overall trend largely in line with expectations.
So, will the market rebound tomorrow?
My judgment is: the probability of a rebound tomorrow is quite high. Even if the rebound does not happen as expected, the index is likely to consolidate around the 4100-point level, and a rebound next week is still worth looking forward to.
Here are the three core reasons for this conclusion:
1. This round of adjustment is policy-driven cooling, with regulators aiming to curb excessive rapid index growth and guide the market back to a steady bull market rhythm, rather than reversing the bull market trend. Therefore, the adjustment's depth and duration are relatively limited.
2. The 4100-point psychological level has proven effective as support. Although the index briefly dipped below this level during the day, it ultimately recovered, indicating strong buying pressure at this level.
3. From a technical perspective, there is no top divergence on the daily chart. This correction is merely a short-term adjustment triggered by a 60-minute top divergence, with an expected duration of 3-5 trading days. After the adjustment concludes, the index is expected to resume its daily trend and target new highs.
In summary, whether the market rebounds directly tomorrow or forms a small doji-like candlestick around the 4100-point level for consolidation, the rebound window is approaching, and there is no need for excessive pessimism.

Volume contracted by trillions! 'Artificial cooling' measures taking effect, here's how to把握 the market rhythm
On Thursday, the main index experienced a slight fluctuation and consolidation, ultimately closing with a small cross-shaped candlestick. This pattern indicates that the market's buying and selling forces are now balanced, and the overall trend remains largely in line with expectations. From a short-term perspective, the index is likely to remain in a horizontal consolidation phase, gradually seeing the 5-day moving average approach the 10-day and 20-day moving averages.
From a weekly perspective, this round of adjustment can also be seen as a test and confirmation of the 4034-point support level. Currently, the index remains within a reasonable fluctuation range, with the 5-week moving average continuing to diverge upward, and the bullish alignment pattern remains intact. This suggests that the market does not have the conditions for a significant downturn, and the likelihood of continued horizontal consolidation is higher. As long as the pullback does not break below the key support level of 4034 points, there is no need for excessive concern.
In a consolidation market, the requirement for operational timing is significantly increased. Investors must avoid being overly aggressive. Especially under the backdrop of 'artificial cooling' policies, funds generally exhibit caution toward high-valued stocks. Operationally, one should adhere to the principles of 'not chasing gains, not panicking during declines,' adopting a 'buy on weakness, sell on strength' strategy to accurately grasp the wave rhythm.

The market has seen a significant reduction in trading volume today: Is it an opportunity or a risk?
First, my view: As of now, the overall market turnover has contracted to the trillion-yuan level, with notable market fluctuations. The announcement yesterday regarding increased margin requirements has directly triggered today's market cooling.
This reduction in trading volume is not necessarily bad. If the market continues to rise without experiencing any pullbacks, it could actually create greater risks down the line.
Regarding the future trend of the overall market, my stance is clear: the first support level is around 4,098 points, and the second support level is around 4,034 points. These two levels are the optimal opportunities for re-entry; other levels do not offer clear investment value.
Additionally, it's important to note that funds that entered at high prices in the past two days are unlikely to be unwound smoothly in the short term. The market may even form a double-top pattern, so investors should prepare accordingly.
On the individual stock level, we should continue to avoid high-valued stocks and instead focus on identifying undervalued stocks with potential for a 'dragon return' pattern.

The A-share market's consolidation has entered its third trading day, and future market trends can be interpreted as follows:
Our view remains unchanged; when the index declines to the vicinity of the previous high point range of 4,083-4,098 points, it will be the first short-term entry point, allowing for speculation on a rebound wave. The strength of the subsequent rebound will require further observation based on trading volume and sector rotation. From the perspective of external联动 indicators, the downside support level of the FTSE China A50 index is located along the 6-month moving average, a level that coincides almost exactly with the previous high range of the A-share market, forming a resonant support. During the previous phase of continuous index rallies, we have consistently warned of risks at elevated levels; now, in the context of ongoing corrections, the market is gradually revealing positioning opportunities.

The market has continued to 'cool down' recently; what's next? Early Thursday trading was generally characterized by minor fluctuations, with indices remaining stable and avoiding significant corrections. However, individual stocks performed relatively weakly. The CSI 2000 opened with two consecutive down days, indicating that today's pullbacks in individual stocks were still evident. This mainly stems from 'artificial cooling,' so in the short term, caution is advised for high-valued stocks and those that have risen sharply, as short-term impacts are likely. Simply put, upward potential is now limited. This was clearly visible today, with a notable decrease in 20cm gainers.

From a technical perspective, short-term fluctuations are unavoidable, but they are likely to remain in a strong consolidation pattern. As long as the 4034 level is held, the market remains strong. From a moving average standpoint, the 5-day line will gradually approach the 10-day and 20-day lines.

Consolidation in a central range increases trading difficulty, requiring better stock selection and timing. Those with weaker fundamentals should exercise caution and avoid overly aggressive strategies—consider buying on dips and selling on rallies.

Sector-wise, both commercial space and AI applications saw broad corrections, which is normal given their previous large gains. The market's main direction hasn't changed, though the commercial space sector is likely to shift into a wide-range consolidation phase, with inevitable major divergences. Patience is key—wait and see.

AI applications remain a key area to monitor. Corrections offer opportunities for continued tracking, but attention to timing is crucial. Stocks with recent consecutive gains may face profit-taking pressure, and with artificial market cooling, upward potential is limited. Avoid chasing gains; instead, wait patiently for pullbacks and look to add positions at lower levels.

Overnight, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively fell, with the Nasdaq dropping more than 1%, as tech stocks weakened across the board, dragging down the market, while all seven major tech giants closed in the green. The precious metals sector saw a renewed frenzy, with spot silver prices historically surpassing $93.
On the news front, a Federal Reserve official for 2026 clearly supports Powell, stating that interest rates will remain unchanged in January, while firmly opposing administrative intervention in monetary policy.
Additionally, the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index slightly fell by 0.23%, and the FTSE China A50 Index dropped by 0.55%.
2. A-share Market Analysis
On Wednesday, the A-share market showed a steady trend in the morning, with the structure appearing strong; however, in the afternoon, the index quickly plummeted due to unexpected bad news, with fluctuations continuing until 14:00. In the last hour, the market began to recover, ultimately closing with a long upper and lower shadow doji, reporting 4126.09 points, down 0.31%.
This negative news stemmed from the Shanghai and Shenzhen North Stock Exchanges simultaneously announcing that the minimum margin ratio for investors' financing would be raised from 80% to 100%, sending a clear signal to regulate market leverage and prevent trading risks.
The impact of this policy mainly focuses on two aspects:
1. A significant cooling of sentiment, directly putting financial pressure on the on-site financing market;
2. Guiding a shift in market style, during the reporting season window, potentially pushing funds from pure concept speculation to focus on fundamentally strong stocks with good performance.
Overall, after consecutive increases in volume, the market's foundation and capital activity remain online, and the regulatory measures aimed at "cooling down" are intended to maintain the long-term healthy development of the market rather than ending the current trend.
3. Market Hotspots and Important News
1. Policy Press Conference: The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 3:00 PM on January 15 (Thursday) to introduce the effects of monetary and financial policies in supporting high-quality development of the real economy.
2. Aerospace Sector: The U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration recently announced that the "Artemis 2" crewed lunar flyby mission is scheduled to take place no earlier than February 6.
3. Tariff Policy: On the 14th, the U.S. announced that starting from the 15th, a 25% import tariff will be imposed on certain imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and their derivatives.
4. Industry Chain Trends: Driven by the AI boom, demand for high-end electronic-grade glass fiber cloth has surged, with Nitto Denko's related products facing shortages, as companies like Apple and Qualcomm are rushing to buy. Related stocks to watch include Honghe Technology and Fuli Hua.
5. Regulatory Dynamics: Yidian Tianxia has entered the suspension review phase due to a cumulative deviation of over 100% in the closing price increase over nine consecutive trading days; Guosheng Technology has experienced multiple abnormal fluctuations, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange has accordingly taken self-regulatory measures such as suspending account trading for relevant investors.

A double black candle pattern doesn't necessarily indicate主力洗盘 (distribution by major players), but could also signal a trend reversal. Distinguishing between the two has always been challenging.
There is a common market consensus: a double black candle with shrinking volume likely represents distribution, whereas a double black candle with increasing volume more often suggests weakening trends. However, how should we interpret the 'double volume black candle' strategy? After such a pattern appears, some securities may immediately rebound strongly, but most will first undergo a pullback before entering the next phase of movement.
Ultimately, market sentiment can serve as an interpretation of price movements, and themes can provide explanations for price changes. There are reasons for rises and logic behind declines—precisely illustrating the complexity of stock market analysis.