Steven_Research

Thank you @Binance Square Official and the title independent Researcher 2025

Thank you to the bosses @CZ @Yi He @Richard Teng

Thank you to the bosses @Daniel Zou (DZ) 🔶 and Francis, and @Nyan 7

It has been a memorable year 2025 with many emotions related to crypto and Binance!

Made many new friends, effective investments, gained more insights into the industry, and found reliable partners and colleagues!

Let's look forward to 2026 with new forecasts! We will be even more dynamic! Very bullish on Binance! 😍

Happy new year 2026!

After the large short liquidations $BTC and $ETH , what remains are mainly long positions that have not yet been liquidated.

The aggregate liquidation level, using data from 11 trading platforms over a period of one month and three months, shows that after a prolonged period of both long and short liquidations, current accumulated positions are heavily skewed toward long positions, especially as a large portion of short positions have just been wiped out.

Fear and pain could return if BTC drops below $85,000 and ETH falls to $2,850.

So after several weeks of losses, the current investment of 1.8 billion USD for $ETH from Trend_Research is now profitable with an average price over 3,200

It seems they still have ETH on Hyperliquid and are currently making a profit of 50 million USD

That's quite impressive, isn't it

NEW DRAFT OF U.S. CRYPTO MARKET STRUCTURE LEGISLATION

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act is a bill aimed at establishing a clear regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market in the U.S., delineating roles between the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), protecting consumers, and promoting innovation

- The draft spans 278 pages and includes sections on definitions of digital assets, Digital Commodities, Mature Blockchain Systems, Stablecoins, etc.

=> Most anticipated points currently being awaited by the community

- 1: Altcoins such as $XRP , $SOL , $LTC , $HBAR, $DOGE, $LINK may be treated similarly to BTC/ETH if they support exchange-traded products (ETPs) starting January 1, 2026. This reduces the risk of being classified as securities

- 2: Passive yield from Stablecoins is prohibited; permitted yields are based on activities such as trading, staking, providing liquidity, collateral posting, network governance participation, using wallets/vaults, program membership, or accepting/payments/payments (permissible activities)

=> This is a win for Traditional Banking (TradFi), effectively protecting their core business model

=> Additionally, other draft provisions such as non-acceptance of CBDCs, the right to self-custody digital assets, peer-to-peer trading, and banks being allowed to hold, lend, stake, run nodes, and integrate with TradFi are also of significant interest

=> Personally, I believe this legislation brings greater clarity to the market, making it easier for institutions to participate, but it also brings the market closer to TradFi and diminishes some of its attractive features for retail investors. The convergence with traditional finance is becoming increasingly evident

South Korea has lifted the ban on cryptocurrency investment for businesses after 9 years (since 2017), due to concerns about financial stability and speculation.

=> The ban led to capital outflows of approximately 76 trillion won (over 55 billion USD), causing the country to miss opportunities for developing its domestic industry.

- This is part of the "2026 Economic Growth Strategy" under President Lee Jae-myung, aimed at promoting innovation and integrating crypto into the economy, combined with the approval of crypto ETFs and stablecoin regulations.

=> In 2025, relaxations were introduced for non-profit organizations and exchanges; the Basic Law on Digital Assets was postponed to 2026, amid debates on supervision and the issuance of won-pegged stablecoins.

- According to the new guidelines from the Financial Services Commission (FSC): listed companies and professional investors (around 3,500 entities). Maximum investment limit of 5% of equity capital per year. Eligible assets: Top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, listed on at least 5 major exchanges (Upbit, Bithumb, etc.)

- Banks are further promoting the issuance of won-pegged stablecoins, strengthening investor protection, and may launch crypto ETFs in 2026.

*Specific timeline: Final guidelines to be issued in January-February 2026; businesses can begin investing by the end of 2026, in line with the new law.

=> This means the ban is now lifted, but businesses are awaiting new guidelines and will only be allowed to allocate up to 5% of their capital to crypto by the end of 2026.

$BTC

BTC WHALES ARE "EXITING" LONG POSITIONS

The correlation between Long positions and Bitcoin price $BTC

Latest data shows that major investors (commonly referred to as "whales") are reducing their leveraged Long positions. Although this action is typically interpreted as reduced bullish sentiment, historical chart data reveals a notable opposite trend.

*Key points from the chart:

- Repetitive pattern: In the two most recent instances when the BTCUSD Longs index (lower line) dropped sharply (red circles), Bitcoin price (blue line) recorded significant rallies immediately afterward.

- First instance: Price increased by 57.35% over 43 days.
- Second instance: Price increased by 46.69% over 44 days.

*Current situation: The Longs index is showing signs of decline similar to the previous two instances (third red circle).

- Technical forecast: If this historical pattern continues in the current cycle, analysts predict Bitcoin is likely to maintain its upward momentum, with a potential target reaching the 135,000 USD range.

*Note: This analysis is based on historical data and technical patterns, not investment advice.

Large Bitcoin investors are not buying at low prices.

Addresses holding 1K–10K BTC $BTC decreased by 220K BTC compared to the same period last year, the fastest decline since early 2023.

A similar shift occurred in 2021–2022 prior to the price peak.

So bullish for me $BTC make this sense

To date, the BNB Chain Fund has spent 200,000 USDT to buy a batch of Chinese meme tokens over the past two days.

Including:
$50K to buy 370K $BinanceLife
$50K to buy 1.3M $Hakimi
$50K to buy 4.83M $WoTamaLaiLai
$50K to buy 4.7M $LaoZi

BNB CHAIN INCENTIVE 100M$ TO BUY TOKENS - CHINESE MEME SYMBOLS ARE BACK

The BNB Chain Foundation continues its disbursement roadmap under the 100 million USD package to boost the ecosystem.

- A key highlight in this round is capital focused on meme coin projects with Chinese symbols or names

1. Latest transaction details

*This morning, the BNB Chain Foundation wallet (address: 0x511) disbursed a total of 100,000 USD to two meme coin projects:

- Token $币安人生 (Binance Life): 50,000 USD disbursed to purchase 370,050.73 tokens. This meme project features Chinese characters symbolizing strong ties to the Binance ecosystem.

- Token $我踏马来了 (I'm Fucking Here): 50,000 USD disbursed to purchase 4,833,569.28 tokens. This project also belongs to the trending meme coin group capturing attention from the Chinese-speaking community.

=> The BNB Chain team immediately corrected the token names on official channels afterward to ensure accuracy and avoid user confusion.

2. This follows the 2025 program aimed at driving the BNB Chain ecosystem

- This move helps BNB Chain attract capital and users from competing networks, especially amid the rising trend of meme coins

- Immediately after, a surge occurred on BNB Chain for tokens with Chinese names (Symbol Chinese), with many tokens increasing severalfold in a short period

- Although encouraged, meme coin volatility always comes with high risk. Please manage risks carefully and thoroughly research before participating

Now I checked and found out I got an airdrop from the game of $TRUMP

I just casually played and posted once, reached tier 5, so if I had put in more effort and sought referrals, I should have gotten much higher

- I didn't pay attention, but a few days ago the price was higher, now I just checked and the price has dropped significantly

* Total rewards based on market value

- NFT Trump Tower Epic: 169$
- NFT Mystery Box Rare: 61$
- Additional reward around 50$ plus another $TRUMP , about 9 tokens, will be paid gradually over the next 12 weeks

=> Total airdrop around 280$
=> Initial investment was 5.6$ deposited into 1 $TRUMP to get points, which can still be withdrawn later, so it can be considered as zero cost

* If I had sold these NFTs a few days ago, I might have gotten around 300-400$, but now the price has dropped significantly, and it will likely drop further in the coming days

- I'll probably just leave them and wait to see if the game releases something that might fetch a better price, just for fun with no cost involved. If the price drops too much, I'll just consider it a loss from the start, but anyway, the amount is quite small anyway kk

- Has anyone else gotten a big payout from this game?

Binance data suggests selling pressure $XRP is decreasing, possibly reversing the price:

According to data from the exchange, selling pressure on XRP shows signs of weakening, leading to hopes of a price recovery. XRP has dropped 5-8% over the past 24 hours, but factors such as regulations and volatility $BTC may have an impact.

$XRP

TRUEBIT HACKED FOR $26M - $TRU TOKEN DROPPED 99.9%

Truebit protocol – a veteran project in Ethereum-based computation solutions – suffered a severe attack on January 8th. This incident not only resulted in asset loss but also wiped out nearly all value of the TRU token within just a few hours.

1. Incident Details

- The cause was a vulnerability in the purchase/mint contract that had existed since 2021, stemming from a flaw in the pricing logic (possibly due to integer overflow or incorrect pricing during large-volume transactions).

- The hacker exploited this flaw to mint an enormous amount of TRU tokens at nearly zero cost, then immediately dumped them into liquidity pools to withdraw ETH.

- * Main attacker (wallet 0x6C8E...2b50) stole approximately 8,535,$ETH (~$26.5 million).

=> About 50% of the stolen funds were immediately laundered through Tornado Cash.

2. Consequences

- TRU dropped by 99.99%, falling from around $0.2 to nearly zero ($0.0000000029).

- Liquidity frozen: The entire pool was drained, pushing the project into a "reset to zero" state.

=> Many long-term holders since 2021 reported losing all their assets. Truebit has not yet made any specific commitment regarding compensation.

3. Current Situation

- The Truebit team advises users to completely stop interacting with the project's old contracts until further notice.

- Although the token price has seen some recovery, the project's liquidity is nearly gone, so token holders still cannot retrieve their funds.

- What do you guys think?

UPDATE: $MSTR NOT EXCLUDED FROM INDEX - MORGAN STANLEY FILES FOR ETF $BTC $ETH $SOL

On January 6, 2026, MSCI officially announced that companies like DATCOs such as MicroStrategy (MSTR) would not be excluded from the index for the February 2026 review, instead opting for a broader, more comprehensive evaluation.

This decision helped MSTR stock recover, rising approximately 6% after market hours, and reduced selling pressure from index-tracking funds.

At the same time, Morgan Stanley filed with the SEC for approval of spot ETFs for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, signaling Wall Street's deeper involvement in crypto

=> This marks the first time a major U.S. bank (Morgan Stanley) has submitted a filing to launch spot ETFs related to crypto (Bitcoin, Solana, and Ethereum), rather than merely investing in or recommending third-party products.

* Previously, banks such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, or Bank of America had only participated indirectly by holding Bitcoin ETFs or providing custody services, but had never directly filed to launch crypto ETFs

Binance lists $TAO (Bittensor) in Japan - Causing a strong recovery in TAO price

$TAO has been added to the token list on Binance Japan, a strict market that lists fewer than 40 tokens.

This strengthens #TAO's position as a decentralized AI network, supporting liquidity and regulatory credibility.

$TAO

Binance launches 24/7 perpetual TradFi contracts for gold and silver

Binance has just introduced a new product enabling continuous trading of gold and silver contracts using USDT, combining traditional finance with crypto.

Starting with gold ($XAU ) on January 5, 2026, and silver ($XAG ) on January 7, 2026

This is expected to expand the TradFi market on blockchain, offering a trading environment similar to crypto futures.

$XAU