Ethereum’s Month-over-Month Activity Retention shows a sharp spike in the “New” cohort, indicating a surge in first-time interacting addresses over the past 30 days. This reflects a notable influx of new wallets engaging with the Ethereum network, rather than activity being driven solely by existing participants.
We are currently witnessing a kinetic collision between Flow (ETF Buyers) and Structure (Option Dealers). The data captures this war with terrifying precision.
1. The Immovable Object (The Wall) Spot Price: $96,839 Call Wall: $96,982
The Insight: We are trading 0.1% below the dealer resistance line.
Dealers are Long Gamma (Net GEX +$8.8M).
This means every time the price touches $96,982, dealers are mathematically forced to SELL Bitcoin to hedge their books. They are the concrete ceiling keeping us under $97k.
2. The Unstoppable Force (The Flow) 1D Net Flow: +$563 Million (Accelerating) 1W Net Flow: +$2.39 Billion
The Insight: While dealers are trying to cap the price, a tidal wave of institutional capital is battering the gate. IBIT alone bought $286M today.
The "Flow Regime" is flagged as STRONG_INFLOW.
The Deepest Insight: The market isn't "stalling." It is compressing.
You have massive spot buying ($563M) fighting directly against massive dealer hedging (at $97k).
Physics dictates the outcome: Dealer hedging is finite (they run out of inventory or gamma rolls off).
Spot buying is persistent. We are currently grinding against the $96,982 ceiling. When the flows consume the dealer inventory, the "Vol Suppression" breaks, and we teleport higher.
Iran’s currency collapses overnight and Bitcoin hits 100 billion. The people of Iran who saved in Bitcoin became rich overnight while those who trusted their government lost 96% of their value.
#Bitcoin has entered the new year with constructive momentum, printing two higher highs and extending price to $98k, but the advance now runs directly into a historically significant supply zone.
4 year cycle is NOT the same as stock-to-flow model.
The 4 year cycle says that the year after a halving is a bull year, like 2013, 2017, 2021 🟩🟥🟩🟩 and 2025 did obviously not fit that pattern.
But S2F says nothing about bull or bear, top or bottom. S2F is the thesis that scarcity drives value, that bitcoin should (ultimately) be more valuable than gold because BTC is scarcer than gold. S2F models the rough path of nonlinear phase transitions towards $30T+. S2F roughly models the average price during a 4 year cycle (regardless of which years are bull or bear). Current cycle average is $90k, clearly above past cycle's average of $34k, and is still going towards S2F $250k-$1m range (2 years to go) IMO. I still fundamentally believe that.
Here are 3 Key safety practices 1) Always Verify Payment Directly. As a seller ,never release your cryptocurrency solely based on a buyers screenshot, a text messa or an email notification. Scammers can use AI and other tools to create a convincing fake Payment proofs .Log into your actual bank account or e-wallet to confirm the funds are available & cleared. 2) Avoid THIRD -PARTY Payments. The name on the Payment method used by the buyer should exactly match their verified name on the P2P platform .Do not accept payment from 3rd party,as this is a major red flag and can lead to charge back fraud or bank account freeze . 3) Keep Communication On -Platform. Avoid request to move your conversation to external apps like WhatsApp,telegram or email .Official platform can only intervene in disputes & access that records if the conversation occurred within their system. Be careful when trading p2p . #P2PScam #P2PScamAwareness
$BTC on 1D Timeframe has formed a Fair Value Gap between $92326 -$9500 due Manipulation-Increased inflows . However holding OB support $94400 If we lose the support it mighty land to $92k again .THEN a HUGE PUMP again . A little pullback is HEALTHY. #MarketRebound