The year 2025 is coming to an end, it was one of the worst years for the crypto market defying all expectations of extreme greed, so we will follow the following strategy.
🔴FIRST SEMESTER: 📈Trades: we have been making purchases during this downturn and will carry out trades during the upswings until June (after that, it will depend on the tax rules).
📉 Investments (long-term): Since we are likely to start the year with more declines and a bear market, we will focus on accumulating stronger cryptocurrencies from the top 25. The other altcoins we will keep what we have already purchased, but at most 25% of the portfolio.
🟢SECOND SEMESTER: Depending on the new tax rules, we will suspend short-term trades and only maintain holds (long-term investments).
Futures have been impractical to operate for several years, for those who like to stay within the law, so our strategy will be to focus only on purchases in the second semester of 2026 onwards, until there is a change in laws or realization of significant future profits, whether in Brazil or in other more attractive countries.
Thus, there is enough time to take that English/other language course and focus on saving unnecessary expenses to prioritize purchases. Eliminating debts and fixed bills will also be my goal to accumulate more Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, AvAx, Tron, Link, Sui, CRO, LTC, Near, as examples, but obviously, we will re-study these and other projects over the following months.
🚀 Market Rebound or Trap? What is the crypto market really saying today 📈 Bitcoin and the crypto market open higher, driving sentiment from #MarketRebound fear to neutral:
The question dominating the market is simple and dangerous:
👉 Is this the start of a new uptrend or just another pause before the bear market?
💰 BTC above critical support
Bitcoin reacts positively after U.S. macroeconomic data, such as the Non-Farm Payroll and employment numbers (#USJobsData). These data temporarily ease fears of more aggressive interest rates.
BTC Rises on U.S. Data, But the Game Isn't Over Yet
In recent days, Bitcoin has reacted positively again, driven by U.S. macroeconomic data and the renewed debate over strategic purchases (Strategy BTC Purchase).
But this rise isn't happening in a vacuum. 📌 What is driving the market right now?
🔹 U.S. Jobs Report (Non-Farm Payroll)
Weaker data ease pressure on interest rates, favoring risk assets like Bitcoin.
🔹 U.S. trade deficit declining
A sign of economic adjustment, but still far from real stability.
☠️ When the national currency dies - Iran, Venezuela, Argentina, and China
Currencies don't collapse overnight. They decay gradually, when confidence is replaced by inflation 📉, excessive issuance 🖨️, and political decisions that ignore economic logic. Venezuela, Argentina, Iran, and China show different stages of the same process. In 🇻🇪 Venezuela, hyperinflation destroyed the bolívar. Price controls, money printing, and international isolation caused the currency to lose its basic function. Today, the US dollar 💵 is the true medium of exchange for the population.
The Iranian currency has dropped to $0. Bitcoin protects us against this and any dictatorship, communist country, or irresponsible government, whether on the far right or far left.
The question is: cheap compared to what? All I know is: 🔹 It's not emotionally cheap for those who bought at the top 🔹 It's not historically expensive, based on on-chain metrics 🔹 It's being ignored by the public, which rarely coincides with market tops 🔹 It's in a fear zone, where rational decisions are harder — but more rewarding This is the question that always reappears when the market enters a period of decline, consolidation, and fear. To answer it, you can't just look at the price. You need to observe public interest, sentiment, on-chain metrics, and liquidity. And my indicators tell an interesting story:
Whenever it drops, they'll open long anyway because they think the brokers are cheap, they pay the 'infruencis', deceive the confused sardine, the market only falls...
As sardines continue coming in longs, we will maintain our larger positions in BTC and Dollar. For now, no altcoins in the portfolio, just the minimum existential holds to keep our 2026 profits safe until the end of January.
As sardines continue coming in longs, we will maintain our larger positions in BTC and Dollar. For now, no altcoins in the portfolio, just the minimum existential holds to keep our 2026 profits safe until the end of January.
Forecast for the year 2026: We will have a year with great volatility and price search between 126k and 73k is still plausible, due to high liquidity until the end of these prices.
Volatility between 126k and 80k is still plausible
1st HALF OF 2026: I believe that the price may fall to 83k and then pursue 126k.
The range of 126k until the end of June/2026 I foresee with an 80% chance.1st QUARTER OF 2026: It is possible that the preli may fall to 86k and then easily pursue 110k until the end of March/2026, in search of a total of 200 million dollars in liquidity on Binance: