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Cryptocurrencies still have a future, but have bid farewell to wild growth, with the core logic shifting towards institutional dominance and value return. Short-term adjustments do not affect the long-term trend.

1. Long-term promising core support

1. Institutions' deep entry has become a settled matter: The inflow of funds into the US spot Bitcoin ETF is strong, giants like BlackRock are making moves, and traditional financial institutions like JPMorgan are launching on-chain products. Institutions have replaced retail investors as marginal buyers, making the funding side more stable.

2. Tokenization + RWA opens a trillion-dollar market: Tokenization is seen as a significant financial innovation, covering assets such as stocks, government bonds, and real estate. By 2025, the scale of RWA tokens is expected to exceed $23 billion, a fourfold increase year-on-year, with market space reaching hundreds of billions of dollars.

3. Core asset values are undervalued: Ethereum has become the preferred platform for institutional tokenization, with continuous technological upgrades that strengthen its utility value and ecological barriers; Bitcoin, as "digital gold," still has a very low global allocation rate, with ample growth potential.

4. Cycle logic reconstruction, non-bear market conclusion: The traditional four-year cycle has been broken due to the ineffectiveness of industrial cycles and the copper-gold ratio indicator. The current decline is more about deleveraging adjustments. Institutions predict that Bitcoin may reach $300,000 by 2026, with a potential new high in January next year.

2. Key risks to be vigilant about in the short term

• Market vulnerability still exists: Stablecoins that earn interest frequently collapse due to leverage and opaque collateral issues, while DeFi funds are centralized and susceptible to black swan impacts.

• Deepening macro and regulatory connections: Cryptocurrencies are more tightly bound to interest rates and economic cycles, and changes in regulatory policies may still trigger short-term fluctuations.

• Poor-quality projects being eliminated: Concept hype projects lacking technology and scenarios will be abandoned by funds, further exacerbating market differentiation.

Overall, the market is shifting from speculation-driven to value-driven, with quality assets and compliant ecosystems set to dominate the future. Short-term declines are an inevitable stage in industry reshuffling.