槐安国南柯郡太守

Some macro hidden risks I'm closely watching for 2026:

- Political uncertainty related to the midterm election cycle
- Valuation and sentiment risks in AI and broader tech sectors (I don't think it's a bubble, but rather a potential major correction, possibly happening this year)
- Japan policy uncertainty, which could disrupt yen carry trades and tighten global liquidity
- Ongoing geopolitical tensions
- Sovereign debt markets facing repricing pressures, especially at the long-end of government bond yields
- Global growth slowing down, putting pressure on corporate earnings expectations

Individually, any one of these issues isn't fatal.
But if multiple factors coincide, they could quickly evolve into a black swan event, posing systemic risks to global markets.

When overlaying this macro backdrop onto Bitcoin's four-year cycle, the period from late Q3 2026 to year-end is likely to be more challenging for the crypto market.

Of course, some argue that ETFs, institutional participation, and changes in market structure have rendered the four-year cycle "obsolete."

I don't fully agree with that view.

I acknowledge the cycle is weakening. I also agree it's become less clean and less dramatic. But I don't believe it has disappeared.

Market structures evolve, but human nature, liquidity cycles, and positioning behavior don't vanish overnight.

Simply put:
If a noticeable pullback occurs around late Q3 2026 when $BTC appears, I won't be surprised at all.

That's typically when I'd increase my buying, not exit or panic.

I'd view it as part of the cycle, not a rejection of the long-term logic.

Historically, the most uncomfortable moments often give rise to the most asymmetric long-term opportunities.

To add: The safest way to use a hot wallet is to generate a wallet with a mnemonic phrase and then create a Passphrase (hidden wallet). This way, even if the whole world knows your mnemonic phrase, they do not know your hidden wallet recovery phrase, and they cannot access your assets. Then, based on this foundation, you can use a multi-signature wallet (to transfer funds from the wallet, multiple wallets must confirm simultaneously).

For cold wallets, choose Trezor, because it is the only fully open-source option. At that time, the entire cryptocurrency space was still in its infancy, and even Ledger had not yet appeared. In other words, the pioneer of hardware wallets is Trezor; all others are latecomers. It has a very secure feature, Shamir Shares, which is the strongest defense against physical attacks and the best large storage solution, most suitable for large assets. It splits a mnemonic phrase into N pieces (Shares) and requires M pieces to restore the wallet. A regular cold wallet needs one mnemonic phrase to open the wallet, while with Shamir Shares, you can create five mnemonic phrases and set it up so that three or four are needed to open the wallet. This means that a thief or hacker would need 24 words multiplied by 3 to open your wallet, or three mnemonic phrases requiring two to open, or even 10 or 20. You can store them separately at home, in your car, or in a bank safe. Buy steel plates for the mnemonic phrases, lock them up, and put on anti-tamper strips. Then, through the Passphrase (hidden wallet), this is already institutional-level security protection, and that’s how I accumulate coins. The premise is that you do not authorize anything and only use the transfer function, avoiding any websites.

For this method, I dare say that among ten KOLs, no more than one understands it. I have an even better method, which is the ancient hundred billion giant whale's security level for accumulating coins on exchanges. After this wave of market exit, I will take the time to organize and write it out in detail.

$SOL
{future}(SOLUSDT)
Transaction record five. Long position in SOL, entry 125.77, stop loss 122.94, take profit 128.98. Buy and leave.

$SOL
{future}(SOLUSDT)
Transaction four. The third transaction was closed incorrectly, watching the market on the phone is still unreliable. Re-entering to go long, entry price 123.77, stop loss as usual 119, take profit set a bit more conservatively at 128.5.

Early closing. Small profit. The weekend is coming, liquidity is insufficient, worried it won't go up.

$SOL
Place bet. Second transaction.
Entry, 125.87, Stop loss, 129.22, Take profit, 121.85.

Principal 2000u, earn 300,000u in two months? Return rate 150 times.

I previously wrote that on October 21, Polymarket launched a 15-minute BTC up and down market.

At that time, I thought this feature was quite interesting, and the hybrid monster has its own second spring.

Eight days later, a small address entered the market to test the waters.
Fifty-two days later, cumulative profits exceeded $305454.

It’s definitely a bot.

I looked at its trading records, it can place 15 orders in a minute.
Human beings cannot do that.

Currently, my understanding of this bot's strategy is three points:

1. It doesn't buy both sides simultaneously; it buys at different times.

Buy YES when it drops below 35¢; buy NO when it drops below 35¢; enter the market at different time points.

2. The goal is to make the average cost of YES + NO < $0.99.

There is no need to buy at the same second; as long as the final weighted average cost of the position is below $1, profit is locked in.

3. If hedging is unsuccessful, directly close the position and exit without loss.

Core logic: buy low at different times, lock in price differences.

Because in the 15-minute BTC up and down market, there are only two options: Up and Down.

At settlement, correct = 100¢, incorrect = 0.
In theory, Up + Down = 100¢.

But retail investors are emotional and often create wrong pricing. During panic, Up drops to 30¢, during greed, Down drops to 25¢.

So the bot's operation:

Wait for Up to drop below 35¢, buy; wait for Down to drop below 35¢, buy;
Do not buy at the same time, enter the market at different time points;
Weighted average cost on both sides < 99¢, profit locked in;
If no hedging opportunity is found, directly close the position, exit with zero loss.

But to be honest, after studying it, I am not excited anymore.
This kind of bot is not suitable for following trades.

It earns from millisecond-level price differences, with a speed of 15 orders per minute.
By the time you see the opportunity, it may have already eaten its fill.
Following its trades will have you losing while it profits.
However, one thing is certain:

The era of quantification on Polymarket has begun.

In the future, I will continue to dig into this kind of address; if I find something interesting, I will share it again.
@Polymarket

The earliest group of 50 KOLs with Binance rebates