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The recent capital flow in the crypto market reveals interesting signals. On January 13, Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $627.5 million, Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of $76.7 million, Solana ETFs attracted $5.9 million, and XRP ETFs saw $15.04 million in net inflows. This synchronized inflow across multiple assets indicates that institutional funds are not betting on a single asset, but rather allocating to the entire crypto asset class. Market sentiment has shifted from观望 (cautious observation) to active participation, driven by improved macroeconomic conditions and rising regulatory expectations.
On social media, KOLs are emphasizing the uniqueness of this rally—low leverage, low holding costs, and high ETF inflows. Analysts point out that Bitcoin futures open interest has surpassed $138 billion, yet funding rates have not significantly increased, suggesting that long positions are not driven by high leverage but by genuine spot buying. This healthy rally structure is far more sustainable than the speculative pump seen in 2021.
However, I've also seen some cautious voices. A major whale established short positions worth $35 million in BTC, ETH, and SOL around January 13, indicating that not all big players are bullish. CryptoQuant reminds us that despite the current optimism, market divergence still exists. My assessment is that the extent of this rebound depends on actual Federal Reserve policy and the final version of the U.S. Senate bill. If these uncertainties are resolved, the market may finally enter a major uptrend; otherwise, the current move might merely be a technical rebound within a bear market. Stay vigilant, but there's no need to be overly pessimistic.
#加密市场观察 $XRP

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Bitcoin's performance over the past few days has finally given bulls some relief. On January 13, U.S. CPI data showed core inflation dropped to 2.6%, below expectations. The market reacted immediately, pushing BTC from $93,500 upward, reaching as high as $96,495 during intraday trading on the 14th.

This rally is not an isolated event but the result of improved macro conditions and technical convergence. Weak inflation data strengthened expectations of rate cuts, prompting capital to flow into risk assets. The narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" has been reactivated.

Technically, BTC's MACD has turned bullish on both the 4-hour and daily charts, with RSI readings at 67.84 and 64.16 respectively, indicating accumulating momentum without entering overbought territory. Crucially, on January 13, there was a net outflow of 6,212 BTC from exchanges, signaling investors are reducing exchange balances and increasing self-custody—clear evidence of hoarding. Combined with $627 million in net inflows into ETFs on the same day, both institutions and retail investors have shown rare alignment. Market leverage remains at historically low levels, meaning upward potential is healthier and less prone to violent volatility from liquidations.

However, I also note that BTC's daily price remains below the 200-day moving average of $106,050, indicating the long-term trend is not yet fully established. The current level around $95,000 acts as both resistance and key support. If it holds and breaks above $96,000, the next target could be $100,000. Conversely, if macro data fluctuates or regulatory news changes, a pullback to the $88,000–$90,000 range would not be surprising. Short-term sentiment is optimistic, but medium-term outlook still depends on actual Fed actions and global liquidity developments.
#加密市场观察 $BTC

The most noteworthy news in the crypto world over the past two days has been the U.S. Senate finally releasing the draft text of a clear digital asset market bill. This bill directly addresses the core issue by clearly distinguishing whether crypto tokens should be classified as securities or commodities, and authorizes the CFTC to regulate the spot market. More interestingly, the bill specifically prohibits crypto firms from paying interest to users simply for holding stablecoins, while allowing rewards for actual activities. This subtle detail reveals the regulators' nuanced stance toward DeFi yield models—they aim to protect consumers without completely stifling innovation.

Judging from market reaction, this legislative progress has indeed boosted sentiment. XRP, SOL, and LINK have been explicitly listed as eligible for ETF products, sparking excitement in the community. Senator Lummis at x.com emphasized this as a bipartisan achievement and urged swift passage. However, I noticed the Senate Banking Committee has postponed the discussion to January 16th and has received over 75 to 130 amendments, touching on sensitive issues like DeFi and yield. This indicates that the bill still has room for negotiation before it becomes law, and the industry should not become overly optimistic.

My personal assessment is that while this legislative breakthrough is a milestone, the final version may undergo significant revisions in detail. Balancing innovation leadership with financial stability is bound to be a prolonged struggle. For investors, rather than chasing concepts, it's wiser to focus on projects with solid compliance foundations and long-term value. Regulatory clarity is positive, but it doesn't mean all cryptocurrencies will benefit equally.
#加密市场观察 $BTC

The details in this stablecoin regulation draft are worth careful consideration. Prohibiting idle funds from generating returns, while allowing activity-based rewards, creates a very blurry line. For example, if a user deposits USDC on Compound and earns interest, does that count as "idle"? If yes, the entire foundation of the DeFi lending market would need to be restructured; if not, where exactly does the regulatory boundary lie? I believe this clause reflects the anxiety of traditional banks—they cannot accept stablecoins generating returns outside the banking system, which directly threatens their monopoly over deposit businesses. But the essence of blockchain is decentralization. Forcing it into traditional finance's logic will only stifle innovation. Of course, from a regulator's perspective, they need to balance consumer protection with financial stability. At least this draft is a starting point. The upcoming stakeholder meetings and revision processes will be crucial. The industry must actively participate in advocacy rather than passively accepting the outcome. If the final version is overly strict, it may push innovation overseas, ultimately harming the U.S. crypto industry.

#稳定币 $USDC

A noteworthy detail in Ethereum's on-chain data today: large holders continue to increase their stakes, with daily new staking volume reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, and total staking volume exceeding $4 billion. Meanwhile, Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net inflows, despite some sell-offs by institutions like BlackRock. This divergence in institutional behavior is intriguing—one side consists of long-term believers adding to their stakes to earn returns, while the other side comprises short-term traders reducing positions at higher levels. In terms of price performance, ETH has shown relative weakness around $3,100, rising only 0.54% over 24 hours, far below BTC and SOL. In community discussions, Vitalik's standards for Ethereum's 'future adaptability' are being highlighted, particularly in comparison with new Layer 1s like Monad in terms of TPS and state management. I believe Ethereum's current core challenge is not technology itself, but a weak narrative. The flourishing of Layer 2s has actually diluted the value capture of Layer 1, leading investors to question the valuation logic of ETH. If Ethereum wants to regain market attention, it needs more aggressive breakthroughs in killer applications or monetary policy.
$ETH