The Fed just dropped new macro data, and it’s far worse than anyone expected.
Global market collapse is coming, but most people don't even know what’s going on.
This is extremely negative for markets.
If you’re holding assets right now, you’re not going to like what comes next.
What’s happening is not normal.
A systemic funding issue is forming quietly under the surface, and almost no one is positioned for it.
The Fed has already been forced into action.
The balance sheet has expanded by roughly $105 billion. The Standing Repo Facility added $74.6 billion. Mortgage-backed securities jumped $43.1 billion. Treasuries rose just $31.5 billion.
This is not bullish QE.
This is the Fed injecting liquidity because funding conditions tightened and banks needed cash.
When the Fed is absorbing more MBS than Treasuries, it tells you the collateral coming to the window is deteriorating. That only happens under stress.
Now add the bigger problem most people are ignoring.
U.S. national debt is at an all-time high. Not just nominally - structurally. Over $34 trillion and rising faster than GDP.
Interest expense alone is exploding, becoming one of the largest line items in the federal budget. The U.S. is issuing more debt just to service existing debt.
That’s the definition of a debt spiral.
At these levels, Treasuries are no longer “risk-free.”
They’re a confidence instrument. And confidence is what’s starting to crack. Foreign demand for U.S. debt is weakening
Domestic buyers are price-sensitive. The Fed becomes the buyer of last resort - whether they admit it or not. This is why funding stress matters so much right now.
You cannot sustain record debt levels when funding markets tighten. You cannot run trillion-dollar deficits when collateral quality is deteriorating.
And you cannot keep pretending this is normal.
This isn’t just a U.S. problem either. China is doing the exact same thing at the same time. The PBoC injected more than 1.02 trillion yuan via 7-day reverse repos in a single week.
Different country. Same issue. Too much debt. Too little trust.
And a global system built on rolling over liabilities that no one actually wants to hold. When both the U.S. and China are forced to inject liquidity simultaneously, this isn’t stimulus. It’s the global financial plumbing starting to clog.
Markets always get this phase wrong. People see liquidity injections and assume it’s bullish. It isn’t.
This isn’t about supporting prices. It’s about keeping funding alive. And when funding breaks, everything else turns into a trap.
The order is always the same. Bonds move first. Funding markets show stress before equities. Stocks ignore it - until they can’t. Crypto sees the most violent drops.
Now look at the signal that actually matters. Gold is at all-time highs. Silver is at all-time highs. This isn’t a growth narrative or an inflation trade. This is a rejection of sovereign debt.
Capital is leaving paper promises and moving into hard collateral. That doesn’t happen in healthy systems. We’ve seen this exact setup before.
→ 2000 before the dot-com collapse. → 2008 before the global financial crisis. → 2020 before the repo market seized.
Every time, recession followed soon after. The Fed is cornered.
If they print aggressively to absorb record debt issuance, precious metals surge and signal loss of control. If they don’t, funding markets lock up and the debt burden becomes unserviceable.
Risk assets can ignore this for a while - but never forever. This is not a normal cycle. This is a balance-sheet, collateral, and sovereign debt crisis developing quietly.
By the time it’s obvious, most people will already be positioned wrong. Position yourself accordingly to survive 2026.
I’ve been calling major tops and bottoms for over a decade. When I make my next move, I’ll post it here.
If you’re not following yet, you probably should - before it’s too late.
🚨 BREAKING: Putin calls Pezeshkian, says that "The march of millions of Iranians in support of their leadership clearly shows the real situation in Iran."
🚨🇮🇷 REPORT: IRAN USED CHEMICAL WEAPONS ON PROTESTERS
GB News citing Iranian sources: regime forces deployed chemical weapons against demonstrators.
If confirmed, that's crossing every line. Chemical weapons on civilians is a war crime, banned globally since 1925. Syria did it and got bombed for it.
Can't independently verify yet. Internet's still down, information flow fully controlled by the regime.
This would give Trump/Israel justification for immediate strikes under international law.