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CZ sees bitcoin price hitting $200,000 as regulatory climate softens and institutions pile in
In a renewed show of optimism for digital assets, Changpeng Zhao argues that the bitcoin price reaching $200,000 is now largely a question of timing.
CZ links bitcoin’s upside to policy shifts and market confidence
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, widely known as CZ, reiterated that Bitcoin is on track to hit $200,000, calling this outcome effectively inevitable over the long term. He attributed the cryptocurrency’s growth potential to easing regulatory pressure and deeper integration into global financial markets, arguing that these forces will embed Bitcoin more firmly within the worldwide economy.
Zhao directly tied Bitcoin’s recent strength to the evolving political and regulatory backdrop. He emphasized that the broader crypto industry has benefited from a more supportive stance by policymakers in recent years. Moreover, he highlighted that since former President Donald Trump‘s re-election, the tone of U.S. policy has become more accommodating toward digital assets.
This friendlier environment has, in Zhao’s view, helped rebuild trust across the crypto ecosystem. According to him, the renewed confidence is visible in the strong performance of U.S. equity markets, which often act as a barometer for risk appetite. Historically, robust stock indexes have tended to underpin Bitcoin, creating a backdrop where investors are more willing to allocate to volatile assets.
A $200,000 target that Zhao sees as ‘obvious’
Zhao has repeatedly stressed that, in his assessment, Bitcoin eventually climbing to $200,000 is a foregone conclusion. He described such a move as “the most obvious thing in the world,” underscoring his conviction that long-term adoption trends outweigh short-term volatility. That said, he did not attach a precise date to when this threshold might be crossed.
His bullish stance is not isolated. Tom Lee of Fundstrat has long held a similar target for the leading cryptocurrency, also projecting a potential move toward $200,000. Lee’s outlook rests on expectations of future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and improved liquidity conditions, which he believes could support higher valuations across risk assets, including Bitcoin.
In this context, Zhao’s comments fit into a broader bitcoin market outlook shared by a number of high-profile analysts. However, while the numerical forecasts are similar, the underlying narratives vary, ranging from monetary policy drivers to the structural impact of institutional capital entering the sector.
How regulatory easing and macro trends support crypto
The former Binance chief argued that crypto markets are no longer operating on the fringes of finance. Instead, they are increasingly intertwined with macroeconomic trends and traditional asset classes. Moreover, he suggested that clearer rules and friendlier oversight reduce perceived legal and operational risks for major investors, encouraging more capital to move into the space.
Zhao also pointed to the role of strong U.S. equity benchmarks in supporting digital asset sentiment. When major indices trade near highs, risk-taking tends to rise, often spilling over into Bitcoin and other tokens. By contrast, periods of sharp equity drawdowns have historically coincided with sudden bitcoin price fluctuation, as investors rush to cut exposure across their portfolios.
He framed this connection as another reason why he believes the bitcoin price can eventually scale to the $200,000 mark. In his view, an environment featuring easier monetary conditions, resilient corporate earnings and clearer regulations forms a powerful tailwind for the entire crypto asset class.
Institutional adoption could reshape bitcoin’s classic cycles
Beyond headline price targets, Zhao focused on how Bitcoin’s behavior might change as it becomes more embedded in traditional finance. For much of its history, the asset has been heavily influenced by its four-year bitcoin halving cycle, which reduces new supply and has often preceded strong bull markets. However, he argued that this pattern may weaken as large professional investors take a greater role.
Growing bitcoin institutional adoption could push Bitcoin to trade more like a global risk asset than a niche speculative instrument driven primarily by retail traders. As pension funds, asset managers and corporations increase their exposure, flows could respond more to macroeconomic data, interest rate expectations and cross-asset correlations than to purely crypto-native events.
That said, Zhao acknowledged that many commentators still see the four-year cycle as relevant for framing long-term expectations. While some analysts continue to map future rallies around upcoming halvings, others warn that relying solely on historical patterns may be misleading in a market increasingly shaped by institutions and regulation.
From retail speculation to macro-driven asset
Zhao’s outlook reflects a broader shift in sentiment since 2020, as Bitcoin has moved from a largely retail-driven phenomenon toward a more complex macro asset. Moreover, the arrival of regulated products, custodial services and compliance tools has lowered entry barriers for traditional finance, reinforcing his view that the asset is now tied more closely to global economic cycles.
As the crypto sector expands, topics such as crypto regulatory easing, monetary policy and cross-border capital flows are becoming central to understanding its trajectory. In this evolving landscape, Zhao contends that the path to $200,000 is less about speculative manias and more about structural integration into the financial system.
In summary, Zhao and other prominent analysts argue that Bitcoin’s future will be shaped by regulation, institutional flows and macro conditions as much as by its code-based supply schedule. If that thesis proves correct, the journey toward $200,000 could look very different from earlier bull runs, driven less by halving lore and more by mainstream adoption.
CZ links bitcoin’s upside to policy shifts and market confidence
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, widely known as CZ, reiterated that Bitcoin is on track to hit $200,000, calling this outcome effectively inevitable over the long term. He attributed the cryptocurrency’s growth potential to easing regulatory pressure and deeper integration into global financial markets, arguing that these forces will embed Bitcoin more firmly within the worldwide economy.
Zhao directly tied Bitcoin’s recent strength to the evolving political and regulatory backdrop. He emphasized that the broader crypto industry has benefited from a more supportive stance by policymakers in recent years. Moreover, he highlighted that since former President Donald Trump‘s re-election, the tone of U.S. policy has become more accommodating toward digital assets.
This friendlier environment has, in Zhao’s view, helped rebuild trust across the crypto ecosystem. According to him, the renewed confidence is visible in the strong performance of U.S. equity markets, which often act as a barometer for risk appetite. Historically, robust stock indexes have tended to underpin Bitcoin, creating a backdrop where investors are more willing to allocate to volatile assets.
A $200,000 target that Zhao sees as ‘obvious’
Zhao has repeatedly stressed that, in his assessment, Bitcoin eventually climbing to $200,000 is a foregone conclusion. He described such a move as “the most obvious thing in the world,” underscoring his conviction that long-term adoption trends outweigh short-term volatility. That said, he did not attach a precise date to when this threshold might be crossed.
His bullish stance is not isolated. Tom Lee of Fundstrat has long held a similar target for the leading cryptocurrency, also projecting a potential move toward $200,000. Lee’s outlook rests on expectations of future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and improved liquidity conditions, which he believes could support higher valuations across risk assets, including Bitcoin.
In this context, Zhao’s comments fit into a broader bitcoin market outlook shared by a number of high-profile analysts. However, while the numerical forecasts are similar, the underlying narratives vary, ranging from monetary policy drivers to the structural impact of institutional capital entering the sector.
How regulatory easing and macro trends support crypto
The former Binance chief argued that crypto markets are no longer operating on the fringes of finance. Instead, they are increasingly intertwined with macroeconomic trends and traditional asset classes. Moreover, he suggested that clearer rules and friendlier oversight reduce perceived legal and operational risks for major investors, encouraging more capital to move into the space.
Zhao also pointed to the role of strong U.S. equity benchmarks in supporting digital asset sentiment. When major indices trade near highs, risk-taking tends to rise, often spilling over into Bitcoin and other tokens. By contrast, periods of sharp equity drawdowns have historically coincided with sudden bitcoin price fluctuation, as investors rush to cut exposure across their portfolios.
He framed this connection as another reason why he believes the bitcoin price can eventually scale to the $200,000 mark. In his view, an environment featuring easier monetary conditions, resilient corporate earnings and clearer regulations forms a powerful tailwind for the entire crypto asset class.
Institutional adoption could reshape bitcoin’s classic cycles
Beyond headline price targets, Zhao focused on how Bitcoin’s behavior might change as it becomes more embedded in traditional finance. For much of its history, the asset has been heavily influenced by its four-year bitcoin halving cycle, which reduces new supply and has often preceded strong bull markets. However, he argued that this pattern may weaken as large professional investors take a greater role.
Growing bitcoin institutional adoption could push Bitcoin to trade more like a global risk asset than a niche speculative instrument driven primarily by retail traders. As pension funds, asset managers and corporations increase their exposure, flows could respond more to macroeconomic data, interest rate expectations and cross-asset correlations than to purely crypto-native events.
That said, Zhao acknowledged that many commentators still see the four-year cycle as relevant for framing long-term expectations. While some analysts continue to map future rallies around upcoming halvings, others warn that relying solely on historical patterns may be misleading in a market increasingly shaped by institutions and regulation.
From retail speculation to macro-driven asset
Zhao’s outlook reflects a broader shift in sentiment since 2020, as Bitcoin has moved from a largely retail-driven phenomenon toward a more complex macro asset. Moreover, the arrival of regulated products, custodial services and compliance tools has lowered entry barriers for traditional finance, reinforcing his view that the asset is now tied more closely to global economic cycles.
As the crypto sector expands, topics such as crypto regulatory easing, monetary policy and cross-border capital flows are becoming central to understanding its trajectory. In this evolving landscape, Zhao contends that the path to $200,000 is less about speculative manias and more about structural integration into the financial system.
In summary, Zhao and other prominent analysts argue that Bitcoin’s future will be shaped by regulation, institutional flows and macro conditions as much as by its code-based supply schedule. If that thesis proves correct, the journey toward $200,000 could look very different from earlier bull runs, driven less by halving lore and more by mainstream adoption.
Regulatory heat fails to cool prediction markets as daily volume hits $702M record
Trading platforms tied to prediction markets are starting 2026 with record activity, even as regulators intensify their focus on the sector.
Record daily volume of $702M kicks off 2026
Prediction-focused platforms ended 2025 on a sharp uptrend and carried that momentum into 2026. According to Dune Analytics, combined trading activity across major venues recently jumped to about $702M in a single day, marking a new all time high for the niche.
Data shows prediction market volume has been rising quickly since late 2025. Kalshi drove most of the action, handling roughly two thirds of total trades, while Polymarket and Opinion also saw heavy usage during the same period.
On Monday, total trading volume reached a fresh ATH of $700M, underscoring how interest continues to accelerate. Moreover, figures shared by analyst Jonaso on January 15, 2026 highlighted that Kalshi generated $460M that day, securing 66.4% of the market.
Meanwhile, Polymarket, Opinion and @trylimitless each captured close to a 14% share, indicating that liquidity is spreading beyond a single venue. However, the leadership position of Kalshi remains clear based on its reported trading dominance.
How prediction markets are evolving in crypto
These on chain venues allow users to trade contracts tied to the outcome of real world events, including elections, macroeconomic data and sports. Over recent months, they have emerged as one of crypto‘s fastest growing applications, supported by rising on chain volumes and user participation.
Moreover, large crypto companies have started to engage with this trend. Coinbase and Gemini are reportedly exploring integrations that would surface event based markets to their customers, while wallet providers such as MetaMask are adding interfaces that give users direct access.
This expansion has helped push leading firms in the space to multi billion dollar valuations, as capital flows into infrastructure and liquidity. That said, the prediction markets narrative is increasingly colliding with regulatory debates that could shape how these platforms operate in the coming years.
For many users, one of the key attractions of prediction markets is the ability to express views on politics, finance and culture using relatively small stakes. However, that same breadth of topics has drawn closer attention from policymakers worried about gambling, market integrity and potential insider trading.
Regulatory scrutiny intensifies on event based trading
Regulators worldwide are now paying closer attention to prediction markets regulation, even as trading volumes climb. A recent high profile position on Polymarket triggered concerns that the trader might have relied on non public information, prompting fresh calls for oversight.
Lawmakers in several US states are reviewing whether certain contracts tied to politics, sports or financial assets should face restrictions or outright bans. Moreover, some jurisdictions are questioning whether existing gambling or securities rules already cover these types of event based markets.
States such as New York and New Jersey have previously attempted to limit access to specific platforms, arguing that the products look similar to unlicensed wagering. In response, operators have pushed back in court, arguing their contracts provide information markets rather than pure gambling products.
This week, the legal battle produced a notable development. A federal judge in Tennessee paused state level action against Kalshi, giving the company temporary relief as it contests the enforcement effort. However, the underlying questions about classification and jurisdiction remain unresolved.
Global pushback and resilient user demand
Outside the United States, authorities have also started to react. Late last year, Ukraine moved to block local access to Polymarket, explicitly framing these services as a form of gambling that should not be available to residents.
Even with these policy headwinds, trading data indicates that users have not stepped back in a meaningful way. Moreover, the recent $702M record day suggests that appetite for event based speculation and hedging remains robust despite mounting regulatory uncertainty.
For now, platforms are trying to balance growth with compliance while investors track both trading metrics and legal developments. In summary, the sector’s trajectory will likely depend on how courts and regulators ultimately define these markets and whether stricter rules impact liquidity over time.
Record daily volume of $702M kicks off 2026
Prediction-focused platforms ended 2025 on a sharp uptrend and carried that momentum into 2026. According to Dune Analytics, combined trading activity across major venues recently jumped to about $702M in a single day, marking a new all time high for the niche.
Data shows prediction market volume has been rising quickly since late 2025. Kalshi drove most of the action, handling roughly two thirds of total trades, while Polymarket and Opinion also saw heavy usage during the same period.
On Monday, total trading volume reached a fresh ATH of $700M, underscoring how interest continues to accelerate. Moreover, figures shared by analyst Jonaso on January 15, 2026 highlighted that Kalshi generated $460M that day, securing 66.4% of the market.
Meanwhile, Polymarket, Opinion and @trylimitless each captured close to a 14% share, indicating that liquidity is spreading beyond a single venue. However, the leadership position of Kalshi remains clear based on its reported trading dominance.
How prediction markets are evolving in crypto
These on chain venues allow users to trade contracts tied to the outcome of real world events, including elections, macroeconomic data and sports. Over recent months, they have emerged as one of crypto‘s fastest growing applications, supported by rising on chain volumes and user participation.
Moreover, large crypto companies have started to engage with this trend. Coinbase and Gemini are reportedly exploring integrations that would surface event based markets to their customers, while wallet providers such as MetaMask are adding interfaces that give users direct access.
This expansion has helped push leading firms in the space to multi billion dollar valuations, as capital flows into infrastructure and liquidity. That said, the prediction markets narrative is increasingly colliding with regulatory debates that could shape how these platforms operate in the coming years.
For many users, one of the key attractions of prediction markets is the ability to express views on politics, finance and culture using relatively small stakes. However, that same breadth of topics has drawn closer attention from policymakers worried about gambling, market integrity and potential insider trading.
Regulatory scrutiny intensifies on event based trading
Regulators worldwide are now paying closer attention to prediction markets regulation, even as trading volumes climb. A recent high profile position on Polymarket triggered concerns that the trader might have relied on non public information, prompting fresh calls for oversight.
Lawmakers in several US states are reviewing whether certain contracts tied to politics, sports or financial assets should face restrictions or outright bans. Moreover, some jurisdictions are questioning whether existing gambling or securities rules already cover these types of event based markets.
States such as New York and New Jersey have previously attempted to limit access to specific platforms, arguing that the products look similar to unlicensed wagering. In response, operators have pushed back in court, arguing their contracts provide information markets rather than pure gambling products.
This week, the legal battle produced a notable development. A federal judge in Tennessee paused state level action against Kalshi, giving the company temporary relief as it contests the enforcement effort. However, the underlying questions about classification and jurisdiction remain unresolved.
Global pushback and resilient user demand
Outside the United States, authorities have also started to react. Late last year, Ukraine moved to block local access to Polymarket, explicitly framing these services as a form of gambling that should not be available to residents.
Even with these policy headwinds, trading data indicates that users have not stepped back in a meaningful way. Moreover, the recent $702M record day suggests that appetite for event based speculation and hedging remains robust despite mounting regulatory uncertainty.
For now, platforms are trying to balance growth with compliance while investors track both trading metrics and legal developments. In summary, the sector’s trajectory will likely depend on how courts and regulators ultimately define these markets and whether stricter rules impact liquidity over time.
Bitmine backs Beast Industries investment as MrBeast content empire targets finance
In a major move for digital media and finance, Bitmine has confirmed a substantial Beast industries investment that links crypto infrastructure with one of YouTube’s largest content brands.
Bitmine commits $200 million to MrBeast’s media company
Bitmine Immersion Technologies has invested $200 million in Beast Industries, the content-creation company founded by YouTuber MrBeast. According to information released by both companies, the transaction underscores the growing convergence between large-scale content platforms and capital-intensive tech investors.
The deal is expected to close around Monday, January 19, 2026, pending customary conditions. Moreover, both sides framed the agreement as a long-term strategic partnership rather than a simple capital injection, signaling broader ambitions in media and financial technology.
Strategic alignment and leadership reactions
Beast Industries CEO Jeff Housenbold welcomed Bitmine as a new shareholder and strategic ally. He expressed appreciation for the partnership and highlighted the investor’s operational expertise, suggesting that the collaboration could accelerate product development as well as international expansion.
On the investor side, Bitmine’s chairman Thomas Lee cited a strong alignment of corporate values as a key factor behind the decision. However, he also emphasized the importance of scale, pointing to MrBeast’s global reach and to the company’s disciplined approach to building durable digital businesses.
MrBeast’s audience scale and media reach
MrBeast, whose YouTube channels have amassed more than 450 million subscribers, has turned Beast Industries into a major player in the content-creation sector. The channels generate about 5 billion monthly views, giving the company a powerful distribution network that can support new product launches and partnerships.
That said, audience size alone does not fully explain investor interest. For Bitmine, the appeal lies in combining this massive reach with emerging financial technology, potentially turning viewers into users of new digital services anchored around the creator brand.
From content to finance with DeFi technology
As part of its growth strategy, Beast Industries revealed plans to incorporate decentralized finance (DeFi) technology into an upcoming financial services platform. This initiative suggests that the beast industries investment is not only about scaling content production but also about building a bridge between entertainment and next-generation financial tools.
Moreover, the planned financial services platform would position the company at the intersection of media, crypto, and fintech. By integrating DeFi elements, Beast Industries could explore new revenue streams, loyalty mechanisms, and user engagement models that go beyond traditional advertising or sponsorship-based monetization.
Outlook for the Bitmine and Beast Industries partnership
While detailed product roadmaps have not been disclosed, the partnership hints at a broader media and finance collaboration that leverages Bitmine’s technology stack and MrBeast’s global audience. However, execution risks remain, particularly around regulation and user trust in new financial offerings tied to a creator-led brand.
In summary, the $200 million commitment from Bitmine Immersion Technologies marks a significant step in linking large-scale content operations with advanced financial services. If successful, the alliance between Bitmine, MrBeast, and Beast Industries could serve as a high-profile test case for how creator-driven media companies expand into digital finance.
Bitmine commits $200 million to MrBeast’s media company
Bitmine Immersion Technologies has invested $200 million in Beast Industries, the content-creation company founded by YouTuber MrBeast. According to information released by both companies, the transaction underscores the growing convergence between large-scale content platforms and capital-intensive tech investors.
The deal is expected to close around Monday, January 19, 2026, pending customary conditions. Moreover, both sides framed the agreement as a long-term strategic partnership rather than a simple capital injection, signaling broader ambitions in media and financial technology.
Strategic alignment and leadership reactions
Beast Industries CEO Jeff Housenbold welcomed Bitmine as a new shareholder and strategic ally. He expressed appreciation for the partnership and highlighted the investor’s operational expertise, suggesting that the collaboration could accelerate product development as well as international expansion.
On the investor side, Bitmine’s chairman Thomas Lee cited a strong alignment of corporate values as a key factor behind the decision. However, he also emphasized the importance of scale, pointing to MrBeast’s global reach and to the company’s disciplined approach to building durable digital businesses.
MrBeast’s audience scale and media reach
MrBeast, whose YouTube channels have amassed more than 450 million subscribers, has turned Beast Industries into a major player in the content-creation sector. The channels generate about 5 billion monthly views, giving the company a powerful distribution network that can support new product launches and partnerships.
That said, audience size alone does not fully explain investor interest. For Bitmine, the appeal lies in combining this massive reach with emerging financial technology, potentially turning viewers into users of new digital services anchored around the creator brand.
From content to finance with DeFi technology
As part of its growth strategy, Beast Industries revealed plans to incorporate decentralized finance (DeFi) technology into an upcoming financial services platform. This initiative suggests that the beast industries investment is not only about scaling content production but also about building a bridge between entertainment and next-generation financial tools.
Moreover, the planned financial services platform would position the company at the intersection of media, crypto, and fintech. By integrating DeFi elements, Beast Industries could explore new revenue streams, loyalty mechanisms, and user engagement models that go beyond traditional advertising or sponsorship-based monetization.
Outlook for the Bitmine and Beast Industries partnership
While detailed product roadmaps have not been disclosed, the partnership hints at a broader media and finance collaboration that leverages Bitmine’s technology stack and MrBeast’s global audience. However, execution risks remain, particularly around regulation and user trust in new financial offerings tied to a creator-led brand.
In summary, the $200 million commitment from Bitmine Immersion Technologies marks a significant step in linking large-scale content operations with advanced financial services. If successful, the alliance between Bitmine, MrBeast, and Beast Industries could serve as a high-profile test case for how creator-driven media companies expand into digital finance.
London Stock Exchange launches digital settlement house to modernize cross-border settlement
In a move to modernize market infrastructure, London Stock Exchange Group has introduced its new digital settlement house to connect traditional and blockchain-based finance.
LSEG DiSH: a new blockchain settlement platform
The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) has launched a blockchain-powered settlement service called Digital Settlement House (DiSH), designed for financial institutions handling both traditional and digital assets. The platform supports 24/7 settlement, enabling participants to move real commercial bank money and settle assets instantly across multiple networks and jurisdictions.
Moreover, the service targets continuous cash movement across currencies, addressing friction in existing systems that rely on limited operating hours and batch processing. By integrating digital and conventional rails, LSEG aims to give institutions more flexibility in managing payments and assets throughout the day.
How DiSH cash works on the ledger
The new service enables near-instant payment-versus-payment (PvP) and delivery-versus-payment (DvP) settlement using commercial bank deposits. These deposits are recorded on the DiSH ledger as “DiSH Cash,” which gives users immediate ownership and transferability within the platform’s environment.
However, the underlying funds remain held at commercial banks in multiple currencies, while their tokenised representations circulate on the DiSH ledger. This structure is designed to preserve the integrity of traditional bank money while harnessing blockchain efficiency.
The platform also acts as a bridge between on-chain and off-chain arrangements, coordinating assets and payments across independent networks. That said, it supports both blockchain-based environments and conventional financial infrastructure, allowing DiSH to orchestrate complex settlement flows without forcing participants to abandon existing systems.
Connecting cash, securities and digital assets
According to LSEG, the digital settlement house expands the range of tokenised cash and cash-like solutions available to institutional markets. For the first time, the group says, it offers a real cash solution tokenised on blockchain technology using cash in multiple currencies that is held at commercial banks rather than at a central bank.
Daniel Maguire, Group Head of LSEG Markets and CEO of LCH Group, emphasized this structural shift. “LSEG DiSH expands the tokenised cash and cash-like solutions available to the market, and for the first time, offers a real cash solution tokenised on the blockchain utilizing cash in multiple currencies held at commercial banks,” he said.
Risk reduction and liquidity optimization
LSEG highlights that instant, synchronized settlement can shorten settlement timelines and reduce counterparty risk across markets. Moreover, settling transactions in near real time helps unlock assets that might otherwise be tied up in pending trades, increasing collateral availability and supporting more efficient balance sheet management.
The company also stresses the potential to improve liquidity management by enabling users to move cash and assets continuously rather than waiting for end-of-day cycles. This round-the-clock operating model can support margin management and asset optimization for banks, brokers and clearing entities that operate in multiple time zones.
Integrating existing and new market infrastructures
In commenting on the rollout, Maguire underlined the service’s integration capabilities across markets and technologies. “This innovative service will enable users to reduce settlement risk and integrate existing cash, securities, and digital assets across new and existing market infrastructure. We look forward to developing this service in partnership with the market,” he noted.
Furthermore, DiSH aims to support cross-border cash movement by linking different currencies and jurisdictions on a single coordinated platform. By combining blockchain tools with established financial frameworks, LSEG is positioning DiSH as a foundational layer for next-generation settlement workflows.
Overall, the launch of LSEG DiSH signals a strategic step by a major exchange group to connect tokenised commercial bank deposits with traditional financial systems, aiming to reduce risk, boost liquidity and deliver round-the-clock settlement for global institutions.
LSEG DiSH: a new blockchain settlement platform
The London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) has launched a blockchain-powered settlement service called Digital Settlement House (DiSH), designed for financial institutions handling both traditional and digital assets. The platform supports 24/7 settlement, enabling participants to move real commercial bank money and settle assets instantly across multiple networks and jurisdictions.
Moreover, the service targets continuous cash movement across currencies, addressing friction in existing systems that rely on limited operating hours and batch processing. By integrating digital and conventional rails, LSEG aims to give institutions more flexibility in managing payments and assets throughout the day.
How DiSH cash works on the ledger
The new service enables near-instant payment-versus-payment (PvP) and delivery-versus-payment (DvP) settlement using commercial bank deposits. These deposits are recorded on the DiSH ledger as “DiSH Cash,” which gives users immediate ownership and transferability within the platform’s environment.
However, the underlying funds remain held at commercial banks in multiple currencies, while their tokenised representations circulate on the DiSH ledger. This structure is designed to preserve the integrity of traditional bank money while harnessing blockchain efficiency.
The platform also acts as a bridge between on-chain and off-chain arrangements, coordinating assets and payments across independent networks. That said, it supports both blockchain-based environments and conventional financial infrastructure, allowing DiSH to orchestrate complex settlement flows without forcing participants to abandon existing systems.
Connecting cash, securities and digital assets
According to LSEG, the digital settlement house expands the range of tokenised cash and cash-like solutions available to institutional markets. For the first time, the group says, it offers a real cash solution tokenised on blockchain technology using cash in multiple currencies that is held at commercial banks rather than at a central bank.
Daniel Maguire, Group Head of LSEG Markets and CEO of LCH Group, emphasized this structural shift. “LSEG DiSH expands the tokenised cash and cash-like solutions available to the market, and for the first time, offers a real cash solution tokenised on the blockchain utilizing cash in multiple currencies held at commercial banks,” he said.
Risk reduction and liquidity optimization
LSEG highlights that instant, synchronized settlement can shorten settlement timelines and reduce counterparty risk across markets. Moreover, settling transactions in near real time helps unlock assets that might otherwise be tied up in pending trades, increasing collateral availability and supporting more efficient balance sheet management.
The company also stresses the potential to improve liquidity management by enabling users to move cash and assets continuously rather than waiting for end-of-day cycles. This round-the-clock operating model can support margin management and asset optimization for banks, brokers and clearing entities that operate in multiple time zones.
Integrating existing and new market infrastructures
In commenting on the rollout, Maguire underlined the service’s integration capabilities across markets and technologies. “This innovative service will enable users to reduce settlement risk and integrate existing cash, securities, and digital assets across new and existing market infrastructure. We look forward to developing this service in partnership with the market,” he noted.
Furthermore, DiSH aims to support cross-border cash movement by linking different currencies and jurisdictions on a single coordinated platform. By combining blockchain tools with established financial frameworks, LSEG is positioning DiSH as a foundational layer for next-generation settlement workflows.
Overall, the launch of LSEG DiSH signals a strategic step by a major exchange group to connect tokenised commercial bank deposits with traditional financial systems, aiming to reduce risk, boost liquidity and deliver round-the-clock settlement for global institutions.
Swift and SG-FORGE test tokenized bonds settlement with cash and MiCA-compliant stablecoin
In a new capital markets experiment, Swift and Societe Generale’s digital asset arm have tested tokenized bonds settlement using both cash and stablecoins.
Societe Generale and Swift connect tokenization with traditional rails
The cryptocurrency and stablecoin-focused arm of French bank Societe Generale (GLE), SG-FORGE, is collaborating with Swift to exchange and settle tokenized bonds using fiat money and digital currencies, the bank said on Thursday.
In this proof of concept, Swift acted as an orchestration layer between blockchain networks and existing payment systems while SG-FORGE handled issuance and settlement flows. Moreover, the setup preserved banks’ existing connectivity to Swift, limiting the need for new infrastructure.
EURCV stablecoin and MiCA compliance at the core of the trial
The transaction used SG-FORGE’s EURCV $1.1631 stablecoin, described by the bank as the first MiCA (Markets in Crypto Assets)-compliant stablecoin natively compatible with Swift. However, fiat cash legs were also supported, showing that both traditional and digital money can be used in a single workflow.
According to Societe Generale, this design allows financial institutions to experiment with digital assets while still operating within familiar Swift-based environments and regulatory frameworks. That said, the reliance on a fully regulated euro stablecoin is central to the model’s appeal for banks.
Key capital markets use cases validated
The demonstration showed the feasibility of several core market operations: issuance, delivery-versus-payment (DvP) settlement, coupon payments and redemption. Moreover, it provided a live test of how ISO 20022 messaging can support these token-based processes.
By integrating ISO 20022 standards, Societe Generale said tokenized bonds can plug into existing payment infrastructures. As a result, institutions may benefit from faster and more automated settlements without abandoning their current back-office systems.
Swift’s broader digital asset strategy
The trial forms part of a wider series of digital asset and digital currency use cases led by Swift and involving more than 30 global banks. In September last year, Swift announced a project with these institutions to develop a shared digital ledger based on blockchain.
That initiative initially targets real-time, 24/7 cross-border payments using a common infrastructure that can connect different bank systems. However, it also lays the groundwork for future multi-asset settlement, including tokenized securities and programmable money.
Collaboration instead of competition with blockchain rails
Blockchain technology and stablecoin settlement rails are often presented as alternatives to Swift and traditional correspondent banking. In this case, however, Societe Generale is exploring collaborative models that bridge existing infrastructures with new digital asset platforms.
As such, token-based securities can leverage the scale and reach of Swift while tapping the programmability of blockchain. Moreover, the bank argues that this hybrid model could accelerate institutional adoption by reducing integration complexity.
Interoperability as the future of capital markets
“This milestone demonstrates how collaboration and interoperability will shape the future of capital markets,” said Thomas Dugauquier, tokenized assets product lead at Swift. “By proving that Swift can orchestrate multi-platform tokenized asset transactions, we’re paving the way for our customers to adopt digital assets with confidence, and at scale.
“It’s about creating a bridge between existing finance and emerging technologies.” The statement highlights Swift’s ambition to serve as a neutral coordination layer across multiple blockchains and payment systems rather than being displaced by them.
Overall, the experiment confirms that regulated stablecoins like EURCV, combined with Swift’s orchestration and ISO 20022 integration, can support real-world issuance and settlement flows for token-based securities while preserving current banking connectivity.
Societe Generale and Swift connect tokenization with traditional rails
The cryptocurrency and stablecoin-focused arm of French bank Societe Generale (GLE), SG-FORGE, is collaborating with Swift to exchange and settle tokenized bonds using fiat money and digital currencies, the bank said on Thursday.
In this proof of concept, Swift acted as an orchestration layer between blockchain networks and existing payment systems while SG-FORGE handled issuance and settlement flows. Moreover, the setup preserved banks’ existing connectivity to Swift, limiting the need for new infrastructure.
EURCV stablecoin and MiCA compliance at the core of the trial
The transaction used SG-FORGE’s EURCV $1.1631 stablecoin, described by the bank as the first MiCA (Markets in Crypto Assets)-compliant stablecoin natively compatible with Swift. However, fiat cash legs were also supported, showing that both traditional and digital money can be used in a single workflow.
According to Societe Generale, this design allows financial institutions to experiment with digital assets while still operating within familiar Swift-based environments and regulatory frameworks. That said, the reliance on a fully regulated euro stablecoin is central to the model’s appeal for banks.
Key capital markets use cases validated
The demonstration showed the feasibility of several core market operations: issuance, delivery-versus-payment (DvP) settlement, coupon payments and redemption. Moreover, it provided a live test of how ISO 20022 messaging can support these token-based processes.
By integrating ISO 20022 standards, Societe Generale said tokenized bonds can plug into existing payment infrastructures. As a result, institutions may benefit from faster and more automated settlements without abandoning their current back-office systems.
Swift’s broader digital asset strategy
The trial forms part of a wider series of digital asset and digital currency use cases led by Swift and involving more than 30 global banks. In September last year, Swift announced a project with these institutions to develop a shared digital ledger based on blockchain.
That initiative initially targets real-time, 24/7 cross-border payments using a common infrastructure that can connect different bank systems. However, it also lays the groundwork for future multi-asset settlement, including tokenized securities and programmable money.
Collaboration instead of competition with blockchain rails
Blockchain technology and stablecoin settlement rails are often presented as alternatives to Swift and traditional correspondent banking. In this case, however, Societe Generale is exploring collaborative models that bridge existing infrastructures with new digital asset platforms.
As such, token-based securities can leverage the scale and reach of Swift while tapping the programmability of blockchain. Moreover, the bank argues that this hybrid model could accelerate institutional adoption by reducing integration complexity.
Interoperability as the future of capital markets
“This milestone demonstrates how collaboration and interoperability will shape the future of capital markets,” said Thomas Dugauquier, tokenized assets product lead at Swift. “By proving that Swift can orchestrate multi-platform tokenized asset transactions, we’re paving the way for our customers to adopt digital assets with confidence, and at scale.
“It’s about creating a bridge between existing finance and emerging technologies.” The statement highlights Swift’s ambition to serve as a neutral coordination layer across multiple blockchains and payment systems rather than being displaced by them.
Overall, the experiment confirms that regulated stablecoins like EURCV, combined with Swift’s orchestration and ISO 20022 integration, can support real-world issuance and settlement flows for token-based securities while preserving current banking connectivity.
US lawmakers face mounting pressure on stablecoin regulation as banks warn of $6 trillion deposit...
As Washington races to finalize new rules on stablecoin regulation, Wall Street and the crypto industry are clashing over who should control digital dollars and the yield they generate.
Bank of America flags trillions at risk of leaving deposits
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan has warned that stablecoins could siphon off as much as $6 trillion from the US banking system, intensifying long-running tensions between large lenders and the fast-growing digital asset sector.
Speaking on the bank’s earnings call on Wednesday, Moynihan said that, under certain regulatory outcomes, roughly 30% to 35% of all US commercial bank deposits could migrate into stablecoins. Moreover, he stressed that the estimate draws on Treasury Department analyses of potential scenarios.
Moynihan linked the threat directly to the ongoing legislative debate in Congress over whether stablecoins should be allowed to pay interest, or other forms of yield, to everyday users. However, he also framed it as part of a broader conversation about how digital assets intersect with traditional banking.
Yield-bearing designs put bank funding models under pressure
At the heart of banks’ concerns is the question of interest on stablecoins. Lawmakers are weighing whether issuers should be permitted to offer yield on balances, a feature that lenders argue could supercharge bank deposit outflows by offering a bank-like product without comparable oversight.
According to Moynihan, many of today’s stablecoin structures resemble money market mutual funds more than insured bank deposits. Reserves, he noted, are usually invested in short-dated instruments such as U.S. Treasurys, rather than being recycled into loans for households and businesses.
That model, he said, could materially shrink the deposit base that banks use to fund credit across the economy. Moreover, a large shift into fully reserved digital dollars would reduce the role of fractional leverage, limiting banks’ ability to transform short-term deposits into long-term lending.
“If you take out deposits, they’re either not going to be able to loan or they’re going to have to get wholesale funding,” Moynihan warned. He added that wholesale funding is typically more expensive, which could compress margins and reduce banks’ willingness to extend credit.
Legislative push on stablecoins reaches critical phase
These industry warnings arrive as the Senate Banking Committee accelerates work on a negotiated crypto market structure bill. The latest draft, released on Jan. 9 by committee chair Tim Scott, would bar digital asset service providers from paying interest or yield simply for holding stablecoins in an account.
However, the proposal draws an explicit distinction between passive holdings and active participation. It would still permit activity-based rewards linked to functions such as staking, liquidity provision, or posting collateral, signaling lawmakers’ intent to separate payments-style stablecoins from riskier, investment-like products.
Pressure around the text has intensified as the committee confronts tight legislative deadlines. More than 70 amendments were filed ahead of a planned markup this week, underscoring the intensity of lobbying from major banking associations and leading crypto firms.
Other contentious sections include proposed ethics rules, which gained unusual attention after reports that the president had earned hundreds of millions of dollars from family-linked crypto ventures. Moreover, those disclosures have sharpened scrutiny of potential conflicts of interest around digital asset policymaking.
Stablecoin regulation debate exposes deeper policy divides
The fight over stablecoin yields is increasingly being framed as a test case for broader stablecoin regulation in the United States. While banks warn of destabilizing outflows, many crypto advocates counter that fully reserved, transparent stablecoins could reduce systemic risk by eliminating opaque leverage.
In public commentary, critics have distilled the issue into stark terms: interest on stable balances could trigger a mass deposit flight; fully reserved digital money would curtail fractional leverage; and banks could lose a key source of low-cost funding, squeezing profits. That said, policymakers are also weighing potential benefits for consumers seeking safer, programmable forms of cash.
However, the draft bill’s design shows that Congress is not prepared to treat all forms of yield equally. Lawmakers appear determined to close off simple, savings account-style returns on stablecoin holdings while still accommodating more complex decentralized finance use cases.
Concerns over expanded Treasury oversight
The proposed framework has also drawn criticism from outside the banking sector. A recent report from Galaxy Research warned that the legislation could significantly widen Treasury Department surveillance over digital asset flows, raising fresh worries among civil liberties and privacy advocates.
Moreover, the Galaxy analysis argued that expanded monitoring powers might chill innovation in crypto payments and financial infrastructure, even as regulators seek greater visibility into on-chain activity. These warnings add another layer of complexity to an already polarized debate.
Industry support fractures as exchanges push back
Unity within the crypto industry is also breaking down. The chief executive of Coinbase said the exchange could not support the bill in its current form, pointing to provisions that he argued would effectively eliminate stablecoin rewards for users.
His comments highlight how contested the emerging rules have become, even among companies that have previously advocated for clearer oversight. However, they also suggest that large platforms see meaningful revenue and engagement risks if straightforward yield programs on stable balances are curtailed.
Later that day, the Senate Banking Committee announced that the scheduled markup of the bill had been postponed. In a brief statement, members said negotiations remained ongoing and that “everyone remains at the table working in good faith,” signaling that the final contours of any compromise are still in flux.
Outlook for banks, stablecoin issuers and lawmakers
For now, the clash between traditional lenders and digital asset firms over how to treat stablecoins and their yields remains unresolved. Banks warn that trillions of dollars in deposits, and by extension their capacity to lend, are potentially at stake.
At the same time, stablecoin issuers and exchanges are lobbying to preserve reward structures that attract users and differentiate their products from conventional bank accounts. Moreover, privacy advocates are pressing lawmakers to narrow any expansion of government monitoring powers over on-chain activity.
As the legislative process moves forward, the outcome of this fight will shape the future of US dollar-denominated tokens, bank funding models, and the balance between innovation, consumer protection, and state oversight in the digital asset economy.
Bank of America flags trillions at risk of leaving deposits
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan has warned that stablecoins could siphon off as much as $6 trillion from the US banking system, intensifying long-running tensions between large lenders and the fast-growing digital asset sector.
Speaking on the bank’s earnings call on Wednesday, Moynihan said that, under certain regulatory outcomes, roughly 30% to 35% of all US commercial bank deposits could migrate into stablecoins. Moreover, he stressed that the estimate draws on Treasury Department analyses of potential scenarios.
Moynihan linked the threat directly to the ongoing legislative debate in Congress over whether stablecoins should be allowed to pay interest, or other forms of yield, to everyday users. However, he also framed it as part of a broader conversation about how digital assets intersect with traditional banking.
Yield-bearing designs put bank funding models under pressure
At the heart of banks’ concerns is the question of interest on stablecoins. Lawmakers are weighing whether issuers should be permitted to offer yield on balances, a feature that lenders argue could supercharge bank deposit outflows by offering a bank-like product without comparable oversight.
According to Moynihan, many of today’s stablecoin structures resemble money market mutual funds more than insured bank deposits. Reserves, he noted, are usually invested in short-dated instruments such as U.S. Treasurys, rather than being recycled into loans for households and businesses.
That model, he said, could materially shrink the deposit base that banks use to fund credit across the economy. Moreover, a large shift into fully reserved digital dollars would reduce the role of fractional leverage, limiting banks’ ability to transform short-term deposits into long-term lending.
“If you take out deposits, they’re either not going to be able to loan or they’re going to have to get wholesale funding,” Moynihan warned. He added that wholesale funding is typically more expensive, which could compress margins and reduce banks’ willingness to extend credit.
Legislative push on stablecoins reaches critical phase
These industry warnings arrive as the Senate Banking Committee accelerates work on a negotiated crypto market structure bill. The latest draft, released on Jan. 9 by committee chair Tim Scott, would bar digital asset service providers from paying interest or yield simply for holding stablecoins in an account.
However, the proposal draws an explicit distinction between passive holdings and active participation. It would still permit activity-based rewards linked to functions such as staking, liquidity provision, or posting collateral, signaling lawmakers’ intent to separate payments-style stablecoins from riskier, investment-like products.
Pressure around the text has intensified as the committee confronts tight legislative deadlines. More than 70 amendments were filed ahead of a planned markup this week, underscoring the intensity of lobbying from major banking associations and leading crypto firms.
Other contentious sections include proposed ethics rules, which gained unusual attention after reports that the president had earned hundreds of millions of dollars from family-linked crypto ventures. Moreover, those disclosures have sharpened scrutiny of potential conflicts of interest around digital asset policymaking.
Stablecoin regulation debate exposes deeper policy divides
The fight over stablecoin yields is increasingly being framed as a test case for broader stablecoin regulation in the United States. While banks warn of destabilizing outflows, many crypto advocates counter that fully reserved, transparent stablecoins could reduce systemic risk by eliminating opaque leverage.
In public commentary, critics have distilled the issue into stark terms: interest on stable balances could trigger a mass deposit flight; fully reserved digital money would curtail fractional leverage; and banks could lose a key source of low-cost funding, squeezing profits. That said, policymakers are also weighing potential benefits for consumers seeking safer, programmable forms of cash.
However, the draft bill’s design shows that Congress is not prepared to treat all forms of yield equally. Lawmakers appear determined to close off simple, savings account-style returns on stablecoin holdings while still accommodating more complex decentralized finance use cases.
Concerns over expanded Treasury oversight
The proposed framework has also drawn criticism from outside the banking sector. A recent report from Galaxy Research warned that the legislation could significantly widen Treasury Department surveillance over digital asset flows, raising fresh worries among civil liberties and privacy advocates.
Moreover, the Galaxy analysis argued that expanded monitoring powers might chill innovation in crypto payments and financial infrastructure, even as regulators seek greater visibility into on-chain activity. These warnings add another layer of complexity to an already polarized debate.
Industry support fractures as exchanges push back
Unity within the crypto industry is also breaking down. The chief executive of Coinbase said the exchange could not support the bill in its current form, pointing to provisions that he argued would effectively eliminate stablecoin rewards for users.
His comments highlight how contested the emerging rules have become, even among companies that have previously advocated for clearer oversight. However, they also suggest that large platforms see meaningful revenue and engagement risks if straightforward yield programs on stable balances are curtailed.
Later that day, the Senate Banking Committee announced that the scheduled markup of the bill had been postponed. In a brief statement, members said negotiations remained ongoing and that “everyone remains at the table working in good faith,” signaling that the final contours of any compromise are still in flux.
Outlook for banks, stablecoin issuers and lawmakers
For now, the clash between traditional lenders and digital asset firms over how to treat stablecoins and their yields remains unresolved. Banks warn that trillions of dollars in deposits, and by extension their capacity to lend, are potentially at stake.
At the same time, stablecoin issuers and exchanges are lobbying to preserve reward structures that attract users and differentiate their products from conventional bank accounts. Moreover, privacy advocates are pressing lawmakers to narrow any expansion of government monitoring powers over on-chain activity.
As the legislative process moves forward, the outcome of this fight will shape the future of US dollar-denominated tokens, bank funding models, and the balance between innovation, consumer protection, and state oversight in the digital asset economy.
Institutional demand accelerates as new Chainlink ETF from Bitwise lists on NYSE Arca
Institutional investors are gaining fresh access to crypto infrastructure as a new chainlink etf launches on a major U.S. exchange.
Bitwise lists CLNK, expanding regulated Chainlink exposure
Bitwise has introduced a new exchange-traded fund tied to Chainlink, giving investors regulated access to the oracle network without holding LINK directly. The product, trading under the ticker CLNK, is now live on NYSE Arca and adds to the growing roster of crypto infrastructure ETFs.
CLNK provides spot-style exposure to the broader Chainlink ecosystem without requiring LINK token custody by investors. Instead, Bitwise structured the ETF to mirror Chainlink’s market performance as closely as possible. As a result, investors can obtain LINK exposure through standard brokerage accounts, while staying within traditional regulatory frameworks.
Moreover, the issuer continues to broaden its ETF lineup as institutional interest in digital asset products accelerates. The CLNK launch underscores how infrastructure-focused instruments are becoming a preferred entry point for professional investors, compared with direct token purchases.
Chainlink infrastructure at the center of DeFi and tokenization
Bitwise has repeatedly emphasized Chainlink’s status as a core infrastructure layer in blockchain markets. The oracle network connects smart contracts to verified off-chain data, turning external information into reliable on-chain inputs. Consequently, it underpins key use cases such as decentralized finance (DeFi), tokenization of real-world assets, and blockchain-based settlement.
This infrastructure footprint is not theoretical. According to industry data cited by Bitwise, more than $75 billion in DeFi contracts depend on Chainlink price feeds and other oracle services. In addition, the network has supported over $27 trillion in cumulative transaction value, highlighting its role in production-grade blockchain systems.
However, Bitwise is framing CLNK as an avenue to participate in blockchain utility rather than a vehicle for short-term speculation on token moves. The firm describes the ETF as a way to gain targeted exposure to Chainlink infrastructure investment and long-term adoption trends across multiple sectors.
Investment thesis: from token trading to infrastructure exposure
This strategic positioning shapes Bitwise’s broader investment thesis. Instead of focusing primarily on price volatility, CLNK is marketed as exposure to the functionality that enables smart contracts, DeFi protocols, and tokenization platforms to operate reliably. Therefore, the ETF is aimed at investors who want to align with the growth of blockchain infrastructure.
That said, the product still delivers economic exposure to LINK’s market performance via regulated fund units. This allows institutions that face internal mandates or custodial constraints to access the same underlying ecosystem. It also fits within a wider trend of crypto infrastructure ETFs that isolate critical layers of the digital asset stack.
In the middle of this shift, the chainlink etf category is emerging as a distinct niche, sitting between broad-based crypto market funds and single-asset trading vehicles. CLNK illustrates how asset managers are packaging specific protocol exposure for compliance-focused investors.
Second Chainlink-focused product signals a maturing market
Bitwise now joins Grayscale in the U.S. market for Chainlink-based exchange-traded products. Grayscale launched its own Chainlink ETF in December, marking the first such offering available to American investors. Since its debut, Grayscale’s fund has accumulated $63.78 million in cumulative inflows, demonstrating meaningful demand for this type of exposure.
The arrival of CLNK introduces direct competition within this specialized ETF segment. Both the Bitwise fund and the Grayscale product trade on NYSE Arca, one of the main U.S. venues for exchange-traded products. Moreover, the coexistence of two similar funds indicates that infrastructure-oriented tokens are beginning to attract attention comparable to major cryptocurrencies.
However, the differentiation may ultimately hinge on fee levels, liquidity, and how each issuer articulates the long-term role of Chainlink in tokenization and DeFi. For now, the market appears large enough to support multiple vehicles targeting institutional and sophisticated retail demand.
Fees, incentives, and regulatory backdrop
The Bitwise Chainlink ETF carries an annual management fee of 0.34%, placing it in line with many single-asset crypto products. To catalyze early trading activity, the issuer has waived fees for the first three months on assets up to $500 million. This incentive structure is designed to support initial liquidity and make the fund more attractive during its launch phase.
Meanwhile, LINK remains one of the top 25 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, with a valuation exceeding $9.5 billion. That size provides a deeper underlying market for ETF issuers that need to manage creations, redemptions, and potential hedging activity. It also reinforces Chainlink’s position as a key asset within the broader digital asset landscape.
The CLNK debut coincides with a period of faster crypto ETF approvals in the United States. Regulatory clarity has improved following leadership changes at the Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, policymakers have adopted a more constructive tone toward digital assets, which has encouraged launches ranging from spot products to infrastructure-focused funds.
Implications for crypto infrastructure investing
As Bitwise expands its presence on NYSE Arca, the CLNK listing underscores how crypto exposure is shifting toward regulated, infrastructure-centric vehicles. Moreover, the emergence of multiple Chainlink-based funds suggests that oracles and data services are now recognized as investable pillars of the ecosystem.
In summary, the new ETF adds institutional-grade access to a protocol that underlies more than $75 billion in DeFi contracts and over $27 trillion in transaction value. If demand continues to build, CLNK and its peers could help cement Chainlink’s role at the heart of next-generation financial infrastructure.
Bitwise lists CLNK, expanding regulated Chainlink exposure
Bitwise has introduced a new exchange-traded fund tied to Chainlink, giving investors regulated access to the oracle network without holding LINK directly. The product, trading under the ticker CLNK, is now live on NYSE Arca and adds to the growing roster of crypto infrastructure ETFs.
CLNK provides spot-style exposure to the broader Chainlink ecosystem without requiring LINK token custody by investors. Instead, Bitwise structured the ETF to mirror Chainlink’s market performance as closely as possible. As a result, investors can obtain LINK exposure through standard brokerage accounts, while staying within traditional regulatory frameworks.
Moreover, the issuer continues to broaden its ETF lineup as institutional interest in digital asset products accelerates. The CLNK launch underscores how infrastructure-focused instruments are becoming a preferred entry point for professional investors, compared with direct token purchases.
Chainlink infrastructure at the center of DeFi and tokenization
Bitwise has repeatedly emphasized Chainlink’s status as a core infrastructure layer in blockchain markets. The oracle network connects smart contracts to verified off-chain data, turning external information into reliable on-chain inputs. Consequently, it underpins key use cases such as decentralized finance (DeFi), tokenization of real-world assets, and blockchain-based settlement.
This infrastructure footprint is not theoretical. According to industry data cited by Bitwise, more than $75 billion in DeFi contracts depend on Chainlink price feeds and other oracle services. In addition, the network has supported over $27 trillion in cumulative transaction value, highlighting its role in production-grade blockchain systems.
However, Bitwise is framing CLNK as an avenue to participate in blockchain utility rather than a vehicle for short-term speculation on token moves. The firm describes the ETF as a way to gain targeted exposure to Chainlink infrastructure investment and long-term adoption trends across multiple sectors.
Investment thesis: from token trading to infrastructure exposure
This strategic positioning shapes Bitwise’s broader investment thesis. Instead of focusing primarily on price volatility, CLNK is marketed as exposure to the functionality that enables smart contracts, DeFi protocols, and tokenization platforms to operate reliably. Therefore, the ETF is aimed at investors who want to align with the growth of blockchain infrastructure.
That said, the product still delivers economic exposure to LINK’s market performance via regulated fund units. This allows institutions that face internal mandates or custodial constraints to access the same underlying ecosystem. It also fits within a wider trend of crypto infrastructure ETFs that isolate critical layers of the digital asset stack.
In the middle of this shift, the chainlink etf category is emerging as a distinct niche, sitting between broad-based crypto market funds and single-asset trading vehicles. CLNK illustrates how asset managers are packaging specific protocol exposure for compliance-focused investors.
Second Chainlink-focused product signals a maturing market
Bitwise now joins Grayscale in the U.S. market for Chainlink-based exchange-traded products. Grayscale launched its own Chainlink ETF in December, marking the first such offering available to American investors. Since its debut, Grayscale’s fund has accumulated $63.78 million in cumulative inflows, demonstrating meaningful demand for this type of exposure.
The arrival of CLNK introduces direct competition within this specialized ETF segment. Both the Bitwise fund and the Grayscale product trade on NYSE Arca, one of the main U.S. venues for exchange-traded products. Moreover, the coexistence of two similar funds indicates that infrastructure-oriented tokens are beginning to attract attention comparable to major cryptocurrencies.
However, the differentiation may ultimately hinge on fee levels, liquidity, and how each issuer articulates the long-term role of Chainlink in tokenization and DeFi. For now, the market appears large enough to support multiple vehicles targeting institutional and sophisticated retail demand.
Fees, incentives, and regulatory backdrop
The Bitwise Chainlink ETF carries an annual management fee of 0.34%, placing it in line with many single-asset crypto products. To catalyze early trading activity, the issuer has waived fees for the first three months on assets up to $500 million. This incentive structure is designed to support initial liquidity and make the fund more attractive during its launch phase.
Meanwhile, LINK remains one of the top 25 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, with a valuation exceeding $9.5 billion. That size provides a deeper underlying market for ETF issuers that need to manage creations, redemptions, and potential hedging activity. It also reinforces Chainlink’s position as a key asset within the broader digital asset landscape.
The CLNK debut coincides with a period of faster crypto ETF approvals in the United States. Regulatory clarity has improved following leadership changes at the Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, policymakers have adopted a more constructive tone toward digital assets, which has encouraged launches ranging from spot products to infrastructure-focused funds.
Implications for crypto infrastructure investing
As Bitwise expands its presence on NYSE Arca, the CLNK listing underscores how crypto exposure is shifting toward regulated, infrastructure-centric vehicles. Moreover, the emergence of multiple Chainlink-based funds suggests that oracles and data services are now recognized as investable pillars of the ecosystem.
In summary, the new ETF adds institutional-grade access to a protocol that underlies more than $75 billion in DeFi contracts and over $27 trillion in transaction value. If demand continues to build, CLNK and its peers could help cement Chainlink’s role at the heart of next-generation financial infrastructure.
ARK Invest funds hit by Q4 crypto market slump as coinbase stock selloff deepens pressure
During a brutal Q4 2025 for digital assets, volatility in coinbase stock amplified the impact of the crypto market slump on innovation-focused portfolios.
Coinbase weighs on ARK’s flagship strategies
According to ARK Invest’s latest quarterly report, Coinbase was the single largest detractor from performance across its innovation-focused ETFs in Q4 2025. The damage came during the three months ending December 31, as shares slid in parallel with a 9% quarter-over-quarter decline in spot trading volumes on centralized exchanges.
The weakness in COIN occurred even as the exchange staged a high-profile product event outlining long-term ambitions. The roadmap featured on-chain equities, prediction markets, and an AI-powered portfolio advisor, underscoring management’s effort to broaden revenue beyond pure spot trading.
Market conditions, however, remained hostile across digital assets. An October 10th liquidation event erased $21 billion in leveraged positions, triggering cascading deleveraging throughout the crypto sector and intensifying selling pressure into year-end.
Broader ARK Invest exposure under strain
The fallout extended beyond Coinbase inside ARK Invest funds, as several high-conviction holdings struggled to navigate the risk-off backdrop. Roblox emerged as another major drag after reporting third-quarter bookings growth of 51% year over year but guiding to shrinking operating margins in 2026 because of higher infrastructure and safety spending.
Russia’s decision to ban Roblox on child safety grounds further dented sentiment. The move removed roughly 8% of the platform’s total daily active users, even though the region represented less than 1% of total revenue, highlighting how geographic policy shifts can distort headline user metrics.
Not all positions disappointed, however. Advanced Micro Devices became the quarter’s strongest contributor after unveiling major AI partnerships, including a multiyear agreement with OpenAI and a collaboration with Oracle to build a public AI supercluster.
AMD’s third-quarter earnings underscored that momentum, with 36% year-over-year revenue growth driven by robust demand in its Data Center and Gaming segments. That said, the stock’s strength was not enough to fully offset weakness in more volatile holdings tied to digital assets and consumer software.
Shopify added further support after rallying on news of an integration with OpenAI that enables instant in-chat checkout for ChatGPT users. The company also reported strong third-quarter results, posting 32% year-over-year growth in both gross merchandise value and revenue.
Rocket Lab shares surged as well after the company secured multiple launch agreements, including an $816 million contract to deliver 18 missile warning, tracking, and defense satellites into low Earth orbit. Moreover, the win marked the largest deal in the company’s history and reinforced ARK’s focus on space-related innovation.
Even so, performance across ARK’s lineup was mixed. During Q4 2025, four of its actively managed ETFs underperformed broad-based global equity indices, while two funds either outperformed or delivered more muted, index-like returns.
ARK’s commentary struck a cautiously optimistic tone despite the drawdown. “The innovation space is recovering and being revalued,” the firm wrote, arguing that “headwinds that once pressured disruptive technologies are shifting into structural tailwinds” as investors reassess long-duration growth stories.
The crypto-heavy strategies faced the sharpest stress. Bitcoin fell from October highs near $126,000 to trade below $88,000 by year-end, amplifying risk aversion toward listed exchanges and related infrastructure plays.
Coinbase accelerates ‘everything exchange’ expansion
Against this backdrop, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has moved to recast the business model around a more diversified “everything exchange” vision for 2026. Earlier this month, he outlined plans to combine crypto, equities, prediction markets, and commodities under a unified venue spanning spot, futures, and options products.
The strategy aims to position Coinbase as a direct competitor to traditional brokerages, while still leveraging its core expertise in digital assets. Crucially, the exchange is pushing into tokenized securities and event-driven markets that have already attracted billions in recent trading volumes across the industry.
Armstrong framed the initiative in ambitious terms, stating that the goal is to make Coinbase “the #1 financial app in the world.” He added that the company is investing heavily in product quality and automation to support the scale and regulatory complexity implied by the new model.
The firm also moved aggressively into prediction markets during late 2025. Coinbase partnered with Kalshi, a federally regulated platform overseen by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, to expand into event contracts.
Leaked screenshots in November showed a Coinbase-branded prediction interface that supports USDC or USD trading across economics, politics, sports, and technology categories. The product runs through Coinbase Financial Markets, the exchange’s derivatives subsidiary, and relies on Kalshi’s regulatory framework to list yes-or-no event contracts.
Tokenized assets and regulatory outlook support the narrative
Beyond prediction markets integration, Coinbase is preparing to issue tokenized equities directly in-house instead of relying on external partners. This approach distinguishes the company from rivals such as Robinhood and Kraken, which typically depend on third-party providers when offering stock-backed tokens.
In light of these 2026 initiatives, Goldman Sachs raised its stance on the exchange. On January 6, the bank upgraded Coinbase from neutral to buy and lifted its 12-month price target to $303, citing growing confidence in the platform’s diversification and tokenization roadmap.
The market reacted swiftly to the Goldman Sachs upgrade. Coinbase shares jumped 8% following the call, finishing the session at $254.92 and offering some relief after a punishing quarter for the broader crypto ecosystem.
Analysts highlighted that the company is deliberately reducing its dependence on spot crypto trading volumes. They pointed to infrastructure services, tokenization plans, and prediction products as potential long-term drivers that could reshape perceptions of coinbase stock among institutional investors.
Coinbase’s head of investment research also reiterated that management expects broader crypto adoption in 2026. Moreover, the firm anticipates increased participation from both retail and institutional clients as regulatory clarity improves around trading, custody, and tokenized securities.
Regulation remains a key swing factor. Coinbase has threatened to withdraw its support for the draft Crypto Market Structure Bill after late-stage changes that industry participants argue would effectively end DeFi. The dispute, which involves bipartisan lawmakers and major banking interests, underscores how legislative details could still alter the pace of market evolution.
In sum, Q4 2025 underscored how tightly linked ARK’s performance remains to high-beta innovation themes and crypto assets. However, Coinbase’s push into tokenized equities, prediction markets, and a broader “everything exchange” framework suggests the exchange is betting that diversification and regulatory tailwinds will eventually stabilize growth and restore investor confidence.
Coinbase weighs on ARK’s flagship strategies
According to ARK Invest’s latest quarterly report, Coinbase was the single largest detractor from performance across its innovation-focused ETFs in Q4 2025. The damage came during the three months ending December 31, as shares slid in parallel with a 9% quarter-over-quarter decline in spot trading volumes on centralized exchanges.
The weakness in COIN occurred even as the exchange staged a high-profile product event outlining long-term ambitions. The roadmap featured on-chain equities, prediction markets, and an AI-powered portfolio advisor, underscoring management’s effort to broaden revenue beyond pure spot trading.
Market conditions, however, remained hostile across digital assets. An October 10th liquidation event erased $21 billion in leveraged positions, triggering cascading deleveraging throughout the crypto sector and intensifying selling pressure into year-end.
Broader ARK Invest exposure under strain
The fallout extended beyond Coinbase inside ARK Invest funds, as several high-conviction holdings struggled to navigate the risk-off backdrop. Roblox emerged as another major drag after reporting third-quarter bookings growth of 51% year over year but guiding to shrinking operating margins in 2026 because of higher infrastructure and safety spending.
Russia’s decision to ban Roblox on child safety grounds further dented sentiment. The move removed roughly 8% of the platform’s total daily active users, even though the region represented less than 1% of total revenue, highlighting how geographic policy shifts can distort headline user metrics.
Not all positions disappointed, however. Advanced Micro Devices became the quarter’s strongest contributor after unveiling major AI partnerships, including a multiyear agreement with OpenAI and a collaboration with Oracle to build a public AI supercluster.
AMD’s third-quarter earnings underscored that momentum, with 36% year-over-year revenue growth driven by robust demand in its Data Center and Gaming segments. That said, the stock’s strength was not enough to fully offset weakness in more volatile holdings tied to digital assets and consumer software.
Shopify added further support after rallying on news of an integration with OpenAI that enables instant in-chat checkout for ChatGPT users. The company also reported strong third-quarter results, posting 32% year-over-year growth in both gross merchandise value and revenue.
Rocket Lab shares surged as well after the company secured multiple launch agreements, including an $816 million contract to deliver 18 missile warning, tracking, and defense satellites into low Earth orbit. Moreover, the win marked the largest deal in the company’s history and reinforced ARK’s focus on space-related innovation.
Even so, performance across ARK’s lineup was mixed. During Q4 2025, four of its actively managed ETFs underperformed broad-based global equity indices, while two funds either outperformed or delivered more muted, index-like returns.
ARK’s commentary struck a cautiously optimistic tone despite the drawdown. “The innovation space is recovering and being revalued,” the firm wrote, arguing that “headwinds that once pressured disruptive technologies are shifting into structural tailwinds” as investors reassess long-duration growth stories.
The crypto-heavy strategies faced the sharpest stress. Bitcoin fell from October highs near $126,000 to trade below $88,000 by year-end, amplifying risk aversion toward listed exchanges and related infrastructure plays.
Coinbase accelerates ‘everything exchange’ expansion
Against this backdrop, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has moved to recast the business model around a more diversified “everything exchange” vision for 2026. Earlier this month, he outlined plans to combine crypto, equities, prediction markets, and commodities under a unified venue spanning spot, futures, and options products.
The strategy aims to position Coinbase as a direct competitor to traditional brokerages, while still leveraging its core expertise in digital assets. Crucially, the exchange is pushing into tokenized securities and event-driven markets that have already attracted billions in recent trading volumes across the industry.
Armstrong framed the initiative in ambitious terms, stating that the goal is to make Coinbase “the #1 financial app in the world.” He added that the company is investing heavily in product quality and automation to support the scale and regulatory complexity implied by the new model.
The firm also moved aggressively into prediction markets during late 2025. Coinbase partnered with Kalshi, a federally regulated platform overseen by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, to expand into event contracts.
Leaked screenshots in November showed a Coinbase-branded prediction interface that supports USDC or USD trading across economics, politics, sports, and technology categories. The product runs through Coinbase Financial Markets, the exchange’s derivatives subsidiary, and relies on Kalshi’s regulatory framework to list yes-or-no event contracts.
Tokenized assets and regulatory outlook support the narrative
Beyond prediction markets integration, Coinbase is preparing to issue tokenized equities directly in-house instead of relying on external partners. This approach distinguishes the company from rivals such as Robinhood and Kraken, which typically depend on third-party providers when offering stock-backed tokens.
In light of these 2026 initiatives, Goldman Sachs raised its stance on the exchange. On January 6, the bank upgraded Coinbase from neutral to buy and lifted its 12-month price target to $303, citing growing confidence in the platform’s diversification and tokenization roadmap.
The market reacted swiftly to the Goldman Sachs upgrade. Coinbase shares jumped 8% following the call, finishing the session at $254.92 and offering some relief after a punishing quarter for the broader crypto ecosystem.
Analysts highlighted that the company is deliberately reducing its dependence on spot crypto trading volumes. They pointed to infrastructure services, tokenization plans, and prediction products as potential long-term drivers that could reshape perceptions of coinbase stock among institutional investors.
Coinbase’s head of investment research also reiterated that management expects broader crypto adoption in 2026. Moreover, the firm anticipates increased participation from both retail and institutional clients as regulatory clarity improves around trading, custody, and tokenized securities.
Regulation remains a key swing factor. Coinbase has threatened to withdraw its support for the draft Crypto Market Structure Bill after late-stage changes that industry participants argue would effectively end DeFi. The dispute, which involves bipartisan lawmakers and major banking interests, underscores how legislative details could still alter the pace of market evolution.
In sum, Q4 2025 underscored how tightly linked ARK’s performance remains to high-beta innovation themes and crypto assets. However, Coinbase’s push into tokenized equities, prediction markets, and a broader “everything exchange” framework suggests the exchange is betting that diversification and regulatory tailwinds will eventually stabilize growth and restore investor confidence.
Solana Price Today (SOLUSDT): Bullish Phase Above $145, Short-term Resistance Approaching
In the current market context, the Solana price is moving in a controlled rise above $145, with a constructive trend but increasingly narrow margins for error.
SOL/USDT with EMA20, EMA50 and volumes”
loading=”lazy” />SOL/USDT — daily chart with candles, EMA20/EMA50 and volumes.
Main Scenario on D1: Rise Above Average, but Below the 200
The price of Solana (SOLUSDT) today is moving around $145.5, in what I would define as a controlled rise: the underlying trend on the daily remains constructive, but we are increasingly close to a zone where aggressive profit-taking is easy to see.
The general crypto context is still favorable (Fear & Greed index at 61 – Greed), but not in full euphoria. In practice: there is a desire to take on risk, but any too rapid extension risks being sold.
On the daily chart Solana is quoted around $145.46, above the fast averages but still below the EMA 200, which is around $157.9. This is an important detail: the market is buying the pullbacks, but the real medium-term wall remains higher.
EMA (Exponential Moving Averages) – D1
EMA 20: $136.82
EMA 50: $137.81
EMA 200: $157.88
The price is well above EMA 20 and 50, with the two averages practically aligned and below the price, while the 200 remains higher. This indicates a short-medium term bullish trend, still embedded in a longer-term structure that has not been fully reclaimed. As long as we stay above $137–138, buyers have operational control; above $158 we would have a stronger signal of structural recovery.
Daily RSI (D1)
RSI 14: 65.26
The RSI is in a bullish zone but not extreme. This indicates a positive push, with residual room for another leg up before entering the overbought area. In simple terms: the market is bought, but not yet in full overheating. The first real overbought tensions start above about 70.
Daily MACD (D1)
MACD line: 3.79
Signal: 2.24
Histogram: 1.55 (positive)
The MACD is positive and above the signal, with the histogram also positive. Translated: the underlying momentum remains in favor of buyers, with no evident signs of bearish reversal on the daily. The phase is not explosive, but consistent with a progressive rise.
Daily Bollinger Bands (D1)
Median: $134.59
Upper Band: $149.24
Lower Band: $119.93
The price is near the upper band ($145.46 against $149.24). This means that Solana is trading in the upper part of its recent volatility range: a typical behavior of healthy bullish trends, but also a zone where the probabilities of technical pullbacks or lateral consolidations increase. A daily close above $149–150 would be a marked signal of strength, while repeated rejections below that range could indicate the start of short-term distribution.
Daily ATR (D1)
ATR 14: $5.85
The ATR indicates an average daily volatility around $6. In practice, daily movements of 3–4% up or down are perfectly normal on SOL at this time. For those operating in the short term, positions without adequate room for stop risk being wiped out by normal market noise.
Daily Pivot Points (D1)
Central Pivot (PP): $145.13
Resistance R1: $147.06
Support S1: $143.54
The current price ($145.46–145.5) is close to the daily pivot, slightly above. This positioning suggests a fragile balance: small buying flows could push towards $147, while a weak session would be enough to quickly return to the $143.5 area. In practice, we are at an intraday decision point rather than in an extreme zone.
H1: Trend Still Bullish, but Momentum Slowing
On the hourly chart, Solana is quoted around $145.49. The hourly regime is classified as bullish, but signs of cooling momentum are beginning to emerge.
EMA on H1
EMA 20: $145.24
EMA 50: $144.44
EMA 200: $140.53
Price above all averages, with a good bullish structure: the averages are arranged in the correct order (price > EMA 20 > EMA 50 > EMA 200). The distance from the 200 is wide, indicating that the rise in recent sessions has been decisive. However, the angle of ascent of the faster averages is moderating: the trend remains positive, but more mature.
RSI on H1
RSI 14: 52.31
The hourly RSI has returned close to the neutral zone. This indicates that, in the short term, the euphoria has already dissipated: the market is neither stretched to the upside nor the downside. It is a typical context for a pause or redistribution phase after a previous movement.
MACD on H1
MACD line: 0.05
Signal: 0.12
Histogram: -0.07 (slightly negative)
The hourly MACD is showing a slight slowdown in bullish momentum: MACD line just below the signal, histogram slightly negative. It is not yet a strong reversal signal, but more of a warning that the bullish movement is catching its breath. If this divergence extends and the price does not update the highs, the risk of intraday correction increases.
Bollinger Bands on H1
Median: $145.62
Upper Band: $147.74
Lower Band: $143.50
The price is just below the median, in the upper third of the channel but not in contact with the upper band. This setup suggests a consolidation phase near local highs, with room for either a new test of the upper band (around $147.7) or a return towards the center of the range.
ATR and Pivot on H1
ATR 14 H1: $1.10
Pivot H1 (PP): $145.48
Resistance R1 H1: $145.62
Support S1 H1: $145.34
The hourly volatility is contained, with a typical range of about $1 per hour. The price is practically glued to the hourly pivot, between very close R1 and S1: a perfect context for chop and false intraday breakouts, especially for those working with high leverage and tight stops.
M15: Micro-Rise, but Very Delicate Technical Area
On the 15 minutes, SOL is at $145.5, with a slightly bullish picture but without explosiveness. It is the classic scenario where the price can break upwards or quickly stall.
EMA on M15
EMA 20: $145.10
EMA 50: $145.15
EMA 200: $144.57
Price just above the fast averages, which are very close to each other: a signal of a micro-bullish trend but not particularly directional. The 200 at $144.57 acts as an important intraday dynamic support: as long as we stay above, very short-term buyers remain in control.
RSI and MACD on M15
RSI 14 M15: 57.05
MACD line: 0.18
Signal: 0.09
Histogram: 0.09 (positive)
RSI above 50 and MACD slightly positive indicate a short-term bullish push still alive, but not extreme. It is an ideal context for long scalping as long as the price continues to respect rising lows; however, just a couple of decisive red candles are enough to quickly reverse this balance.
Bollinger Bands and Pivot on M15
Median BB M15: $144.94
Upper Band: $145.97
Lower Band: $143.91
Pivot M15 (PP): $145.48
R1 M15: $145.63
S1 M15: $145.35
The price travels between the median and the upper band and, again, practically on the pivot. This setup confirms the idea of a micro-rise in an area of equilibrium: the market has room for an extension towards $146–147, but also for a return towards $145–144.5 without the underlying trend being truly compromised.
Multi-Timeframe Summary: Bullish, but Not Foolproof
D1: Bullish structure above fast averages, positive momentum but near the upper part of the Bollinger Bands.
H1: Rise still present, but with cooling momentum (weakened MACD, neutral RSI).
M15: Intact micro-rise, but near key technical levels, easy to spoil with false breakouts.
The overall picture remains bullish, but with a clear signal: the easy phase of the movement may already be behind us. From here on, sensitivity to profit-taking increases and the risks of traps for those entering late.
Bullish Scenario on Solana Price (SOLUSDT)
The bullish scenario starts from the idea that the current price of Solana manages to consolidate above the $143–145 zone and attract new buyers on any small pullbacks.
What Buyers Need
Keep the Solana price today steadily above the daily pivot at $145.1.
Defend the support range $143.5–144 (S1 daily plus EMA 20–50 zone on lower timeframes).
Push towards and beyond $147–149, which coincides with R1 daily and the upper band of the Bollinger Bands.
If this script plays out, the price chart of Solana could draw a sequence of rising highs and lows with progressive targets:
First target: $149–150 (daily upper band, round psychological resistance).
Second extended target: $155–158, where the daily EMA 200 passes. Here I expect strong friction: it is a level that the market sees.
In this scenario, the Solana USD quotation would remain oriented upwards and any retracement towards $140–142 would likely be seen as a buying opportunity by position traders.
Levels That Invalidate the Bullish Scenario
Daily closes below $140, which would bring the price back inside or below the fast averages range.
Daily RSI that falls steadily below 50, signaling that control passes back to sellers.
Net loss of the daily EMA 50 ($137.8) with increased selling volumes: this would be a strong warning bell for those long in the medium term.
Bearish Scenario on Solana Price
The bearish scenario relies on the idea that the current value of Solana in the $145–147 area is more a distribution zone than a base for a restart. In this case, the market would have already started unloading positions in profit above $140.
What Sellers Need
Repeated rejection of the $147–149 area with reversal candles and increasing volumes.
Decisive break of $143.5 (S1 daily) and subsequent consolidation below $143.
Downward inclination of the daily EMA 20 and 50, with the price remaining below them for several sessions.
If this scenario takes hold, the bearish targets become:
First support: $140–141, psychological threshold and area where the first rebound attempt can be expected.
Next support: $136–138, key area because it coincides with the daily fast averages. A clean break here would open space towards $130.
In this framework, the live Solana price might still appear relatively high compared to the medium-term structure, and intraday rebounds would likely be used to lighten long positions rather than build new ones.
Levels That Invalidate the Bearish Scenario
Stable daily closes above $150, which would signal the strength of buyers even on key resistances.
Reclaim and hold of the daily EMA 200 at $157–158.
Daily RSI rising above 70 without immediate reversal, signaling a true breakout phase, not just a temporary excess.
How to Read the Current Context if You Trade SOL
Net of all the numbers, the market message is quite clear:
The current price of Solana is embedded in an underlying bullish trend on the daily.
Lower timeframes (H1, M15) show a consolidation phase after the movement, rather than a new decisive impulse.
The volatility is such that movements of a few dollars do not change the direction, but can easily trigger too tight stops.
For those looking at the market from an operational perspective:
Short-term traders (intraday/scalping): the $145–147 zone is as interesting as it is dangerous. The price is above the averages but resting on close pivots: false breakouts above $147 or false breaks below $143.5 are very likely. It makes sense to think more in terms of reaction to levels than chasing the price.
Position traders: the daily chart remains constructive as long as SOL stays above $137–140. The real structural test will be in the $150–158 zone. Until then, the current rise can be seen as an intermediate leg within a broader reconstruction process.
The main risk in a context like this is confusing a consolidation at the top with an imminent breakout and buying too late, just when the probability of correction increases. Conversely, those already long still have the underlying trend on their side, but must accept that, at these levels, volatility can work against them in very short times.
For those monitoring the Solana price in real-time, the levels to watch in the coming sessions remain:
Key supports: $143.5, $140, $137–138.
Key resistances: $147–149, $150, $155–158.
As always with volatile assets like Solana, indicators offer context, not certainties: the market can remain irrational longer than a single technical signal might suggest. Working with clear alternative scenarios and defined invalidation levels remains the best defense against false signals and sudden sentiment changes.
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This section contains a sponsored affiliate link. We may earn a commission but at no additional cost to you.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to save. Cryptocurrency trading involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Carefully consider your objectives, experience, and risk tolerance before trading in the markets.
SOL/USDT with EMA20, EMA50 and volumes”
loading=”lazy” />SOL/USDT — daily chart with candles, EMA20/EMA50 and volumes.
Main Scenario on D1: Rise Above Average, but Below the 200
The price of Solana (SOLUSDT) today is moving around $145.5, in what I would define as a controlled rise: the underlying trend on the daily remains constructive, but we are increasingly close to a zone where aggressive profit-taking is easy to see.
The general crypto context is still favorable (Fear & Greed index at 61 – Greed), but not in full euphoria. In practice: there is a desire to take on risk, but any too rapid extension risks being sold.
On the daily chart Solana is quoted around $145.46, above the fast averages but still below the EMA 200, which is around $157.9. This is an important detail: the market is buying the pullbacks, but the real medium-term wall remains higher.
EMA (Exponential Moving Averages) – D1
EMA 20: $136.82
EMA 50: $137.81
EMA 200: $157.88
The price is well above EMA 20 and 50, with the two averages practically aligned and below the price, while the 200 remains higher. This indicates a short-medium term bullish trend, still embedded in a longer-term structure that has not been fully reclaimed. As long as we stay above $137–138, buyers have operational control; above $158 we would have a stronger signal of structural recovery.
Daily RSI (D1)
RSI 14: 65.26
The RSI is in a bullish zone but not extreme. This indicates a positive push, with residual room for another leg up before entering the overbought area. In simple terms: the market is bought, but not yet in full overheating. The first real overbought tensions start above about 70.
Daily MACD (D1)
MACD line: 3.79
Signal: 2.24
Histogram: 1.55 (positive)
The MACD is positive and above the signal, with the histogram also positive. Translated: the underlying momentum remains in favor of buyers, with no evident signs of bearish reversal on the daily. The phase is not explosive, but consistent with a progressive rise.
Daily Bollinger Bands (D1)
Median: $134.59
Upper Band: $149.24
Lower Band: $119.93
The price is near the upper band ($145.46 against $149.24). This means that Solana is trading in the upper part of its recent volatility range: a typical behavior of healthy bullish trends, but also a zone where the probabilities of technical pullbacks or lateral consolidations increase. A daily close above $149–150 would be a marked signal of strength, while repeated rejections below that range could indicate the start of short-term distribution.
Daily ATR (D1)
ATR 14: $5.85
The ATR indicates an average daily volatility around $6. In practice, daily movements of 3–4% up or down are perfectly normal on SOL at this time. For those operating in the short term, positions without adequate room for stop risk being wiped out by normal market noise.
Daily Pivot Points (D1)
Central Pivot (PP): $145.13
Resistance R1: $147.06
Support S1: $143.54
The current price ($145.46–145.5) is close to the daily pivot, slightly above. This positioning suggests a fragile balance: small buying flows could push towards $147, while a weak session would be enough to quickly return to the $143.5 area. In practice, we are at an intraday decision point rather than in an extreme zone.
H1: Trend Still Bullish, but Momentum Slowing
On the hourly chart, Solana is quoted around $145.49. The hourly regime is classified as bullish, but signs of cooling momentum are beginning to emerge.
EMA on H1
EMA 20: $145.24
EMA 50: $144.44
EMA 200: $140.53
Price above all averages, with a good bullish structure: the averages are arranged in the correct order (price > EMA 20 > EMA 50 > EMA 200). The distance from the 200 is wide, indicating that the rise in recent sessions has been decisive. However, the angle of ascent of the faster averages is moderating: the trend remains positive, but more mature.
RSI on H1
RSI 14: 52.31
The hourly RSI has returned close to the neutral zone. This indicates that, in the short term, the euphoria has already dissipated: the market is neither stretched to the upside nor the downside. It is a typical context for a pause or redistribution phase after a previous movement.
MACD on H1
MACD line: 0.05
Signal: 0.12
Histogram: -0.07 (slightly negative)
The hourly MACD is showing a slight slowdown in bullish momentum: MACD line just below the signal, histogram slightly negative. It is not yet a strong reversal signal, but more of a warning that the bullish movement is catching its breath. If this divergence extends and the price does not update the highs, the risk of intraday correction increases.
Bollinger Bands on H1
Median: $145.62
Upper Band: $147.74
Lower Band: $143.50
The price is just below the median, in the upper third of the channel but not in contact with the upper band. This setup suggests a consolidation phase near local highs, with room for either a new test of the upper band (around $147.7) or a return towards the center of the range.
ATR and Pivot on H1
ATR 14 H1: $1.10
Pivot H1 (PP): $145.48
Resistance R1 H1: $145.62
Support S1 H1: $145.34
The hourly volatility is contained, with a typical range of about $1 per hour. The price is practically glued to the hourly pivot, between very close R1 and S1: a perfect context for chop and false intraday breakouts, especially for those working with high leverage and tight stops.
M15: Micro-Rise, but Very Delicate Technical Area
On the 15 minutes, SOL is at $145.5, with a slightly bullish picture but without explosiveness. It is the classic scenario where the price can break upwards or quickly stall.
EMA on M15
EMA 20: $145.10
EMA 50: $145.15
EMA 200: $144.57
Price just above the fast averages, which are very close to each other: a signal of a micro-bullish trend but not particularly directional. The 200 at $144.57 acts as an important intraday dynamic support: as long as we stay above, very short-term buyers remain in control.
RSI and MACD on M15
RSI 14 M15: 57.05
MACD line: 0.18
Signal: 0.09
Histogram: 0.09 (positive)
RSI above 50 and MACD slightly positive indicate a short-term bullish push still alive, but not extreme. It is an ideal context for long scalping as long as the price continues to respect rising lows; however, just a couple of decisive red candles are enough to quickly reverse this balance.
Bollinger Bands and Pivot on M15
Median BB M15: $144.94
Upper Band: $145.97
Lower Band: $143.91
Pivot M15 (PP): $145.48
R1 M15: $145.63
S1 M15: $145.35
The price travels between the median and the upper band and, again, practically on the pivot. This setup confirms the idea of a micro-rise in an area of equilibrium: the market has room for an extension towards $146–147, but also for a return towards $145–144.5 without the underlying trend being truly compromised.
Multi-Timeframe Summary: Bullish, but Not Foolproof
D1: Bullish structure above fast averages, positive momentum but near the upper part of the Bollinger Bands.
H1: Rise still present, but with cooling momentum (weakened MACD, neutral RSI).
M15: Intact micro-rise, but near key technical levels, easy to spoil with false breakouts.
The overall picture remains bullish, but with a clear signal: the easy phase of the movement may already be behind us. From here on, sensitivity to profit-taking increases and the risks of traps for those entering late.
Bullish Scenario on Solana Price (SOLUSDT)
The bullish scenario starts from the idea that the current price of Solana manages to consolidate above the $143–145 zone and attract new buyers on any small pullbacks.
What Buyers Need
Keep the Solana price today steadily above the daily pivot at $145.1.
Defend the support range $143.5–144 (S1 daily plus EMA 20–50 zone on lower timeframes).
Push towards and beyond $147–149, which coincides with R1 daily and the upper band of the Bollinger Bands.
If this script plays out, the price chart of Solana could draw a sequence of rising highs and lows with progressive targets:
First target: $149–150 (daily upper band, round psychological resistance).
Second extended target: $155–158, where the daily EMA 200 passes. Here I expect strong friction: it is a level that the market sees.
In this scenario, the Solana USD quotation would remain oriented upwards and any retracement towards $140–142 would likely be seen as a buying opportunity by position traders.
Levels That Invalidate the Bullish Scenario
Daily closes below $140, which would bring the price back inside or below the fast averages range.
Daily RSI that falls steadily below 50, signaling that control passes back to sellers.
Net loss of the daily EMA 50 ($137.8) with increased selling volumes: this would be a strong warning bell for those long in the medium term.
Bearish Scenario on Solana Price
The bearish scenario relies on the idea that the current value of Solana in the $145–147 area is more a distribution zone than a base for a restart. In this case, the market would have already started unloading positions in profit above $140.
What Sellers Need
Repeated rejection of the $147–149 area with reversal candles and increasing volumes.
Decisive break of $143.5 (S1 daily) and subsequent consolidation below $143.
Downward inclination of the daily EMA 20 and 50, with the price remaining below them for several sessions.
If this scenario takes hold, the bearish targets become:
First support: $140–141, psychological threshold and area where the first rebound attempt can be expected.
Next support: $136–138, key area because it coincides with the daily fast averages. A clean break here would open space towards $130.
In this framework, the live Solana price might still appear relatively high compared to the medium-term structure, and intraday rebounds would likely be used to lighten long positions rather than build new ones.
Levels That Invalidate the Bearish Scenario
Stable daily closes above $150, which would signal the strength of buyers even on key resistances.
Reclaim and hold of the daily EMA 200 at $157–158.
Daily RSI rising above 70 without immediate reversal, signaling a true breakout phase, not just a temporary excess.
How to Read the Current Context if You Trade SOL
Net of all the numbers, the market message is quite clear:
The current price of Solana is embedded in an underlying bullish trend on the daily.
Lower timeframes (H1, M15) show a consolidation phase after the movement, rather than a new decisive impulse.
The volatility is such that movements of a few dollars do not change the direction, but can easily trigger too tight stops.
For those looking at the market from an operational perspective:
Short-term traders (intraday/scalping): the $145–147 zone is as interesting as it is dangerous. The price is above the averages but resting on close pivots: false breakouts above $147 or false breaks below $143.5 are very likely. It makes sense to think more in terms of reaction to levels than chasing the price.
Position traders: the daily chart remains constructive as long as SOL stays above $137–140. The real structural test will be in the $150–158 zone. Until then, the current rise can be seen as an intermediate leg within a broader reconstruction process.
The main risk in a context like this is confusing a consolidation at the top with an imminent breakout and buying too late, just when the probability of correction increases. Conversely, those already long still have the underlying trend on their side, but must accept that, at these levels, volatility can work against them in very short times.
For those monitoring the Solana price in real-time, the levels to watch in the coming sessions remain:
Key supports: $143.5, $140, $137–138.
Key resistances: $147–149, $150, $155–158.
As always with volatile assets like Solana, indicators offer context, not certainties: the market can remain irrational longer than a single technical signal might suggest. Working with clear alternative scenarios and defined invalidation levels remains the best defense against false signals and sudden sentiment changes.
Trading Tools
If you want to monitor the markets in real-time with advanced charts and professional tools, you can open an account on Investing.com!:
Open your Investing.com account
This section contains a sponsored affiliate link. We may earn a commission but at no additional cost to you.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to save. Cryptocurrency trading involves a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Carefully consider your objectives, experience, and risk tolerance before trading in the markets.
Ethereum price outlook: bullish momentum tests key $3,300–3,400 inflection zone
With crypto risk appetite still constructive and BTC dominance elevated above 57%, Ethereum price is pressing into a crucial resistance pocket between $3,300 and $3,400.
ETH/USDT — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.
Daily chart: Ethereum bias is bullish, but getting extended
On the daily timeframe, Ethereum price (ETHUSDT) is trading at $3,362, comfortably above all its key moving averages and near the upper edge of its recent volatility envelope.
Trend structure – EMAs
– Price: $3,362
– EMA 20: $3,153.68
– EMA 50: $3,149.85
– EMA 200: $3,297.05
All three EMAs are clustered below spot, with the 20- and 50-day essentially on top of each other and both now slightly above the 200-day. This is a constructive setup: the short and medium trend have flipped clearly bullish and have just reclaimed the long-term trend line. Moreover, it means recent dips have been consistently bought and the path of least resistance is still up. The gap between price and the 20/50 EMAs, though, is getting wide enough that a pullback to visit those averages would be normal rather than a sign of trend failure.
Momentum – RSI
– RSI (14d): 66.45
Daily RSI is pushing into the high 60s, just below textbook overbought territory. Buyers are clearly dominant, but we are no longer in the stealth accumulation zone; this is a late-phase impulse inside the uptrend. Historically, RSI in the mid-to-high 60s can sustain for some time in strong markets, but it also marks the zone where failed breakouts often start. That said, upside is still open, but the reward-to-risk for fresh, unhedged longs is less attractive than it was a week ago.
Trend quality – MACD
– MACD line: 66.52
– Signal line: 38.42
– Histogram: 28.09
MACD on the daily is firmly positive with the line comfortably above the signal and a solid positive histogram. That confirms the trend is not just a short squeeze; it is a sustained bullish leg. However, the distance between MACD and its signal is now fairly stretched, which often precedes momentum cooling or at least a sideways digestion. Bulls are in control, but the easy money phase of this leg is likely behind us.
Volatility & range – Bollinger Bands and ATR
– Bollinger middle band (20d): $3,120.95
– Upper band: $3,386.33
– Lower band: $2,855.56
– ATR (14d): $114.83
Ethereum price is hugging the upper Bollinger Band, sitting just a few dollars below it. That is classic late-stage momentum behavior: the trend is healthy, but price is living at the higher end of its recent volatility range. With a daily ATR of roughly $115, the market is signalling that a normal one-day swing of 3–4% in either direction is perfectly on the table. Trading near the upper band plus elevated ATR is a textbook setup for sharp intraday reversals if liquidity thins or BTC sneezes.
Short-term levels – daily pivots
– Pivot point (PP): $3,339.58
– R1: $3,401.17
– S1: $3,300.42
Spot is just above the daily pivot, trading between the pivot and R1. This is a mildly bullish intraday posture: buyers have defended the pivot and are probing overhead resistance. The key micro-battlefield on the daily is the $3,300–3,400 pocket. Holding above the pivot and turning R1 into support would keep the upward grind intact; slipping back below $3,300 would signal that this push is losing steam, at least temporarily.
Daily conclusion: The main scenario on the daily chart is bullish. Trend, momentum, and structure all support further upside, but the market is stretched enough that a pullback or sideways consolidation would be a healthy reset, not a shock.
1-hour chart: bullish, but momentum is flattening
The 1-hour timeframe is where you see the first signs of this leg getting a little tired. The trend is still up, but momentum is no longer exploding.
Trend structure – EMAs
– Price: $3,361.12
– EMA 20: $3,334.31
– EMA 50: $3,293.06
– EMA 200: $3,196.83
– Regime: bullish
Price is above all key intraday EMAs, with a clean staircase higher: 20 > 50 > 200 and spot above the 20. This is as straightforward a 1H uptrend as you will get. The distance from the 200 EMA is sizable, which confirms strength but also shows how far we have come without a proper 1H mean reversion. Consequently, short-term traders buying here are paying a premium versus the base of the move, which increases the risk of getting caught in a snap-back to the 50 or 200.
Momentum – RSI
– RSI (14h): 60.03
Hourly RSI is sitting around 60, a moderate bullish reading. The strong overbought readings are gone; this is more of a controlled grind than a runaway rally. That is constructive for trend continuity, but it also says the immediate upside impulse is no longer as strong as it was. Bulls are still dictating direction, just with less urgency.
Trend quality – MACD
– MACD line: 13.13
– Signal line: 12.91
– Histogram: 0.22
On the 1H, MACD remains slightly positive, but the line is almost glued to the signal and the histogram is close to flat. Momentum is still leaning bullish, yet there is no strong acceleration. This is what you typically see before one of two things: either a renewed push higher if buyers step back in, or a slow roll-over into a consolidation or shallow pullback.
Volatility & bands – Bollinger Bands and ATR
– Bollinger middle band: $3,341.34
– Upper band: $3,392.77
– Lower band: $3,289.91
– ATR (14h): $24.39
ETH is trading slightly above the mid-band on the hourly. The prior squeeze into the upper band has already cooled off, and price is now oscillating in the upper half of the band structure. With an hourly ATR around $24, intraday swings of roughly 0.7% are business as usual. This portrays a controlled advance rather than a blow-off move, but it also leaves room for a quick tag of either band if BTC injects volatility.
Intraday levels – hourly pivots
– Pivot point (PP): $3,362.71
– R1: $3,364.29
– S1: $3,359.53
Price is almost exactly on the hourly pivot cluster. R1 and S1 are compressed just a few dollars away, signalling a narrow equilibrium zone intraday. This is a market waiting for a catalyst. A clean break and hold above the $3,365 area opens the door for another attempt at the daily R1 region; slipping under $3,360 and holding below into the session would put the short-term focus back on support closer to the hourly 50 EMA around $3,290.
1H conclusion: Bullish regime, but momentum is flattening and the market is trading around an intraday equilibrium. ETH is in drift up or consolidate mode rather than a fresh breakout phase on this timeframe.
15-minute chart: tactical execution, micro uptrend
The 15-minute chart is mainly useful for timing, not for deciding directional bias. Right now it aligns with the higher timeframes, but it is more stretched.
Trend structure – EMAs
– Price: $3,361.19
– EMA 20: $3,344.96
– EMA 50: $3,335.87
– EMA 200: $3,291.57
– Regime: bullish
Price is stacked above all 15m EMAs with a clear positive alignment. The spread between spot and the 20/50 EMAs is modest, but the distance to the 200 EMA is substantial. In practice, that means the micro-trend is intact, yet the true value area of this whole short-term leg is far below current price. Any sudden volatility spike can quickly drag price back toward the 50 or even 200 EMA without doing real damage to the higher timeframes.
Momentum – RSI
– RSI (14, 15m): 64.33
On the 15-minute chart, RSI sits in a bullish but not extreme zone, very similar to the daily reading in character. Short-term, buyers are still pressing their advantage after recent upticks, but they are dancing close to levels where local pullbacks often emerge. It is an intraday environment where chasing green candles becomes riskier than buying controlled dips.
Trend quality – MACD
– MACD line: 12.11
– Signal line: 8.91
– Histogram: 3.19
On the 15-minute chart, MACD is clearly positive with a decent gap above its signal and a solid positive histogram. This is one of the few places where momentum is still visibly expanding. Very short-term, that favors continuation higher, but remember that lower timeframes flip first. If the histogram starts contracting while price fails to make new highs, that would be an early warning of intraday exhaustion.
Micro-volatility & pivots
– Bollinger middle band: $3,339.85
– Upper band: $3,379.78
– Lower band: $3,299.93
– ATR (14, 15m): $11.28
– Pivot point (PP): $3,362.73
– R1: $3,364.34
– S1: $3,359.58
ETH is trading just under the 15m pivot with bands wide enough to support $10–15 swings without changing the picture. ATR at $11 points to roughly 0.3% noise per 15 minutes, which is enough to stop out tight intraday trades but not yet a sign of panic. The clustering of the 15m and 1H pivots in the $3,360 area reinforces this region as the immediate tug-of-war level between scalp bulls and bears.
Market context: risk-on, BTC-dominant backdrop
Beyond Ethereum’s own chart, the macro crypto backdrop is constructive but not without risk. Total crypto market cap is around $3.36T and rising, yet 24h volume is down roughly 5%. BTC dominates at about 57.5%, with ETH sitting near 12% of total market cap. The setup is strong risk appetite, but capital is still heavily Bitcoin-centric.
The fear and greed index at 61 (Greed) confirms what the charts already imply: the market is leaning risk-on, but we are transitioning from bargain hunting into momentum chasing. In that phase, Ethereum often lags initial BTC impulses but then plays catch-up aggressively, which aligns with the current technical picture of a strong but slightly overextended trend.
Bullish scenario for Ethereum price
From the current configuration, the dominant scenario remains bullish, but it relies on the trend staying intact across timeframes.
What bulls want to see
On the daily, bulls want Ethereum price to hold above the $3,300 area, which roughly aligns with the daily S1 at $3,300.42 and sits comfortably above the 20/50 EMAs near $3,150. As long as ETH defends that higher-low structure, the uptrend remains clean. A sustained push through the daily R1 at $3,401.17 would likely trigger trend-followers and could send price probing the upper Bollinger Band and beyond.
On intraday charts, a decisive move above the $3,365–3,380 pocket, the 15m and 1H R1 region overlapping with the upper intraday bands, with rising RSI and expanding MACD histogram would signal another leg of momentum. In that case, daily RSI can easily ride into the low-70s before any significant correction, and ATR would frame 4–5% daily ranges as part of an ongoing trend rather than a top.
Bullish path, in plain terms: defend $3,300 on dips, convert $3,400 from resistance into support, and ride the trend while daily EMAs continue to slope up beneath price.
What invalidates the bullish case?
The bullish structure starts to crack if Ethereum price breaks and closes the day below the $3,300 zone and then loses the daily 20/50 EMAs clustered around $3,150. A daily close back under the 200 EMA at $3,297.05 would be the first serious warning the current leg has topped for now.
On intraday charts, an early warning would be 1H price slipping below the 50 EMA, near $3,293, with MACD turning negative and RSI failing to recover above 50 on bounces. That would mark a shift from trend with pullbacks into range or distribution. In that environment, daily MACD would likely start rolling over from its elevated level, confirming waning momentum.
Bearish scenario for Ethereum price
The bearish case does not dominate yet, but the ingredients for a corrective phase are in place: extended daily momentum, euphoric positioning creeping in, and ETH trading near the upper end of its volatility envelope.
What bears need
First, bears need to win the $3,300–3,340 battle. A break and sustained trade below the daily pivot at $3,339.58, followed by loss of S1 at $3,300.42, would signal buyers stepping back. With daily ATR at roughly $115, once that pocket gives way, a slide into the $3,200–$3,230 area is a routine move, not an outlier. That zone sits closer to the 200 EMA and would test the conviction of medium-term bulls.
If selling accelerates and ETH closes a daily candle below the 20/50 EMAs, around $3,150, sentiment will likely flip from buy the dip to wait and see. MACD would start to compress toward its signal line; if it crosses lower while RSI breaks under 50, the narrative shifts decisively from trending market to corrective market on the daily timeframe.
On lower timeframes, the first tactical signal for bears would be successive failures at the $3,365–3,400 area with 15m and 1H MACD diverging, meaning price making similar or lower highs while MACD and RSI roll over. That pattern often leads to a fast mean reversion into the 1H 50 EMA or even the 200 EMA, effectively flushing late longs without necessarily ending the higher-timeframe trend.
Bearish path, in plain terms: reject $3,365–3,400, lose $3,300, then pressure the $3,150–$3,200 support confluence. If those levels fold on a closing basis, bears gain genuine control of the tape.
What invalidates the bearish case?
The near-term bearish scenario is invalidated if Ethereum price can consolidate above $3,400, turning that region into a stable floor rather than a ceiling. If price can repeatedly test higher levels without dragging RSI back below 50 on the daily and while MACD stays comfortably positive, any dips are more likely to be routine pullbacks within a continuing uptrend, not the start of a broader reversal.
How to think about positioning from here
Ethereum is in a bullish phase on the daily chart, supported by an uptrending structure and constructive macro crypto conditions. At the same time, it is trading close to the upper edge of its recent range with stretched daily momentum and a market sentiment profile tilted toward greed. That mix usually favors positioning that respects the trend but is honest about downside risk.
For directional traders, the key is timeframe discipline: the daily signal is still up, but the 1H and 15m show a maturing leg rather than a fresh breakout. This argues against aggressive new longs at market unless you are comfortable sitting through a potential pullback toward the daily EMAs. In practical terms, it is more rational to focus on how ETH behaves around $3,300 support and $3,400 resistance than to anchor on a specific price target.
Volatility is elevated but not extreme: a $100+ daily range is normal right now. That means both upside and downside moves can be sharp enough to trigger emotional decisions if size and leverage are not calibrated. Tight stops in noisy intraday zones like $3,360 can get harvested easily, while very wide stops can turn a tactical trade into an unintended swing position.
The honest read: Ethereum price is bullish until it is not, but the odds of a shakeout or sideways digestion are meaningfully higher now than they were earlier in the leg. Being aware of the key inflection levels, specifically $3,300 support, $3,400 resistance, and $3,150–$3,200 as deeper support, and respecting the current volatility regime matters more than trying to nail the next $50 move.
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This section contains a sponsored affiliate link. We may earn a commission at no additional cost to you.
Disclaimer: This article is a technical and market-structure analysis, not investment advice. Markets are volatile and unpredictable; always do your own research, consider your risk tolerance, and never rely solely on a single analysis or indicator when making trading decisions.
ETH/USDT — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.
Daily chart: Ethereum bias is bullish, but getting extended
On the daily timeframe, Ethereum price (ETHUSDT) is trading at $3,362, comfortably above all its key moving averages and near the upper edge of its recent volatility envelope.
Trend structure – EMAs
– Price: $3,362
– EMA 20: $3,153.68
– EMA 50: $3,149.85
– EMA 200: $3,297.05
All three EMAs are clustered below spot, with the 20- and 50-day essentially on top of each other and both now slightly above the 200-day. This is a constructive setup: the short and medium trend have flipped clearly bullish and have just reclaimed the long-term trend line. Moreover, it means recent dips have been consistently bought and the path of least resistance is still up. The gap between price and the 20/50 EMAs, though, is getting wide enough that a pullback to visit those averages would be normal rather than a sign of trend failure.
Momentum – RSI
– RSI (14d): 66.45
Daily RSI is pushing into the high 60s, just below textbook overbought territory. Buyers are clearly dominant, but we are no longer in the stealth accumulation zone; this is a late-phase impulse inside the uptrend. Historically, RSI in the mid-to-high 60s can sustain for some time in strong markets, but it also marks the zone where failed breakouts often start. That said, upside is still open, but the reward-to-risk for fresh, unhedged longs is less attractive than it was a week ago.
Trend quality – MACD
– MACD line: 66.52
– Signal line: 38.42
– Histogram: 28.09
MACD on the daily is firmly positive with the line comfortably above the signal and a solid positive histogram. That confirms the trend is not just a short squeeze; it is a sustained bullish leg. However, the distance between MACD and its signal is now fairly stretched, which often precedes momentum cooling or at least a sideways digestion. Bulls are in control, but the easy money phase of this leg is likely behind us.
Volatility & range – Bollinger Bands and ATR
– Bollinger middle band (20d): $3,120.95
– Upper band: $3,386.33
– Lower band: $2,855.56
– ATR (14d): $114.83
Ethereum price is hugging the upper Bollinger Band, sitting just a few dollars below it. That is classic late-stage momentum behavior: the trend is healthy, but price is living at the higher end of its recent volatility range. With a daily ATR of roughly $115, the market is signalling that a normal one-day swing of 3–4% in either direction is perfectly on the table. Trading near the upper band plus elevated ATR is a textbook setup for sharp intraday reversals if liquidity thins or BTC sneezes.
Short-term levels – daily pivots
– Pivot point (PP): $3,339.58
– R1: $3,401.17
– S1: $3,300.42
Spot is just above the daily pivot, trading between the pivot and R1. This is a mildly bullish intraday posture: buyers have defended the pivot and are probing overhead resistance. The key micro-battlefield on the daily is the $3,300–3,400 pocket. Holding above the pivot and turning R1 into support would keep the upward grind intact; slipping back below $3,300 would signal that this push is losing steam, at least temporarily.
Daily conclusion: The main scenario on the daily chart is bullish. Trend, momentum, and structure all support further upside, but the market is stretched enough that a pullback or sideways consolidation would be a healthy reset, not a shock.
1-hour chart: bullish, but momentum is flattening
The 1-hour timeframe is where you see the first signs of this leg getting a little tired. The trend is still up, but momentum is no longer exploding.
Trend structure – EMAs
– Price: $3,361.12
– EMA 20: $3,334.31
– EMA 50: $3,293.06
– EMA 200: $3,196.83
– Regime: bullish
Price is above all key intraday EMAs, with a clean staircase higher: 20 > 50 > 200 and spot above the 20. This is as straightforward a 1H uptrend as you will get. The distance from the 200 EMA is sizable, which confirms strength but also shows how far we have come without a proper 1H mean reversion. Consequently, short-term traders buying here are paying a premium versus the base of the move, which increases the risk of getting caught in a snap-back to the 50 or 200.
Momentum – RSI
– RSI (14h): 60.03
Hourly RSI is sitting around 60, a moderate bullish reading. The strong overbought readings are gone; this is more of a controlled grind than a runaway rally. That is constructive for trend continuity, but it also says the immediate upside impulse is no longer as strong as it was. Bulls are still dictating direction, just with less urgency.
Trend quality – MACD
– MACD line: 13.13
– Signal line: 12.91
– Histogram: 0.22
On the 1H, MACD remains slightly positive, but the line is almost glued to the signal and the histogram is close to flat. Momentum is still leaning bullish, yet there is no strong acceleration. This is what you typically see before one of two things: either a renewed push higher if buyers step back in, or a slow roll-over into a consolidation or shallow pullback.
Volatility & bands – Bollinger Bands and ATR
– Bollinger middle band: $3,341.34
– Upper band: $3,392.77
– Lower band: $3,289.91
– ATR (14h): $24.39
ETH is trading slightly above the mid-band on the hourly. The prior squeeze into the upper band has already cooled off, and price is now oscillating in the upper half of the band structure. With an hourly ATR around $24, intraday swings of roughly 0.7% are business as usual. This portrays a controlled advance rather than a blow-off move, but it also leaves room for a quick tag of either band if BTC injects volatility.
Intraday levels – hourly pivots
– Pivot point (PP): $3,362.71
– R1: $3,364.29
– S1: $3,359.53
Price is almost exactly on the hourly pivot cluster. R1 and S1 are compressed just a few dollars away, signalling a narrow equilibrium zone intraday. This is a market waiting for a catalyst. A clean break and hold above the $3,365 area opens the door for another attempt at the daily R1 region; slipping under $3,360 and holding below into the session would put the short-term focus back on support closer to the hourly 50 EMA around $3,290.
1H conclusion: Bullish regime, but momentum is flattening and the market is trading around an intraday equilibrium. ETH is in drift up or consolidate mode rather than a fresh breakout phase on this timeframe.
15-minute chart: tactical execution, micro uptrend
The 15-minute chart is mainly useful for timing, not for deciding directional bias. Right now it aligns with the higher timeframes, but it is more stretched.
Trend structure – EMAs
– Price: $3,361.19
– EMA 20: $3,344.96
– EMA 50: $3,335.87
– EMA 200: $3,291.57
– Regime: bullish
Price is stacked above all 15m EMAs with a clear positive alignment. The spread between spot and the 20/50 EMAs is modest, but the distance to the 200 EMA is substantial. In practice, that means the micro-trend is intact, yet the true value area of this whole short-term leg is far below current price. Any sudden volatility spike can quickly drag price back toward the 50 or even 200 EMA without doing real damage to the higher timeframes.
Momentum – RSI
– RSI (14, 15m): 64.33
On the 15-minute chart, RSI sits in a bullish but not extreme zone, very similar to the daily reading in character. Short-term, buyers are still pressing their advantage after recent upticks, but they are dancing close to levels where local pullbacks often emerge. It is an intraday environment where chasing green candles becomes riskier than buying controlled dips.
Trend quality – MACD
– MACD line: 12.11
– Signal line: 8.91
– Histogram: 3.19
On the 15-minute chart, MACD is clearly positive with a decent gap above its signal and a solid positive histogram. This is one of the few places where momentum is still visibly expanding. Very short-term, that favors continuation higher, but remember that lower timeframes flip first. If the histogram starts contracting while price fails to make new highs, that would be an early warning of intraday exhaustion.
Micro-volatility & pivots
– Bollinger middle band: $3,339.85
– Upper band: $3,379.78
– Lower band: $3,299.93
– ATR (14, 15m): $11.28
– Pivot point (PP): $3,362.73
– R1: $3,364.34
– S1: $3,359.58
ETH is trading just under the 15m pivot with bands wide enough to support $10–15 swings without changing the picture. ATR at $11 points to roughly 0.3% noise per 15 minutes, which is enough to stop out tight intraday trades but not yet a sign of panic. The clustering of the 15m and 1H pivots in the $3,360 area reinforces this region as the immediate tug-of-war level between scalp bulls and bears.
Market context: risk-on, BTC-dominant backdrop
Beyond Ethereum’s own chart, the macro crypto backdrop is constructive but not without risk. Total crypto market cap is around $3.36T and rising, yet 24h volume is down roughly 5%. BTC dominates at about 57.5%, with ETH sitting near 12% of total market cap. The setup is strong risk appetite, but capital is still heavily Bitcoin-centric.
The fear and greed index at 61 (Greed) confirms what the charts already imply: the market is leaning risk-on, but we are transitioning from bargain hunting into momentum chasing. In that phase, Ethereum often lags initial BTC impulses but then plays catch-up aggressively, which aligns with the current technical picture of a strong but slightly overextended trend.
Bullish scenario for Ethereum price
From the current configuration, the dominant scenario remains bullish, but it relies on the trend staying intact across timeframes.
What bulls want to see
On the daily, bulls want Ethereum price to hold above the $3,300 area, which roughly aligns with the daily S1 at $3,300.42 and sits comfortably above the 20/50 EMAs near $3,150. As long as ETH defends that higher-low structure, the uptrend remains clean. A sustained push through the daily R1 at $3,401.17 would likely trigger trend-followers and could send price probing the upper Bollinger Band and beyond.
On intraday charts, a decisive move above the $3,365–3,380 pocket, the 15m and 1H R1 region overlapping with the upper intraday bands, with rising RSI and expanding MACD histogram would signal another leg of momentum. In that case, daily RSI can easily ride into the low-70s before any significant correction, and ATR would frame 4–5% daily ranges as part of an ongoing trend rather than a top.
Bullish path, in plain terms: defend $3,300 on dips, convert $3,400 from resistance into support, and ride the trend while daily EMAs continue to slope up beneath price.
What invalidates the bullish case?
The bullish structure starts to crack if Ethereum price breaks and closes the day below the $3,300 zone and then loses the daily 20/50 EMAs clustered around $3,150. A daily close back under the 200 EMA at $3,297.05 would be the first serious warning the current leg has topped for now.
On intraday charts, an early warning would be 1H price slipping below the 50 EMA, near $3,293, with MACD turning negative and RSI failing to recover above 50 on bounces. That would mark a shift from trend with pullbacks into range or distribution. In that environment, daily MACD would likely start rolling over from its elevated level, confirming waning momentum.
Bearish scenario for Ethereum price
The bearish case does not dominate yet, but the ingredients for a corrective phase are in place: extended daily momentum, euphoric positioning creeping in, and ETH trading near the upper end of its volatility envelope.
What bears need
First, bears need to win the $3,300–3,340 battle. A break and sustained trade below the daily pivot at $3,339.58, followed by loss of S1 at $3,300.42, would signal buyers stepping back. With daily ATR at roughly $115, once that pocket gives way, a slide into the $3,200–$3,230 area is a routine move, not an outlier. That zone sits closer to the 200 EMA and would test the conviction of medium-term bulls.
If selling accelerates and ETH closes a daily candle below the 20/50 EMAs, around $3,150, sentiment will likely flip from buy the dip to wait and see. MACD would start to compress toward its signal line; if it crosses lower while RSI breaks under 50, the narrative shifts decisively from trending market to corrective market on the daily timeframe.
On lower timeframes, the first tactical signal for bears would be successive failures at the $3,365–3,400 area with 15m and 1H MACD diverging, meaning price making similar or lower highs while MACD and RSI roll over. That pattern often leads to a fast mean reversion into the 1H 50 EMA or even the 200 EMA, effectively flushing late longs without necessarily ending the higher-timeframe trend.
Bearish path, in plain terms: reject $3,365–3,400, lose $3,300, then pressure the $3,150–$3,200 support confluence. If those levels fold on a closing basis, bears gain genuine control of the tape.
What invalidates the bearish case?
The near-term bearish scenario is invalidated if Ethereum price can consolidate above $3,400, turning that region into a stable floor rather than a ceiling. If price can repeatedly test higher levels without dragging RSI back below 50 on the daily and while MACD stays comfortably positive, any dips are more likely to be routine pullbacks within a continuing uptrend, not the start of a broader reversal.
How to think about positioning from here
Ethereum is in a bullish phase on the daily chart, supported by an uptrending structure and constructive macro crypto conditions. At the same time, it is trading close to the upper edge of its recent range with stretched daily momentum and a market sentiment profile tilted toward greed. That mix usually favors positioning that respects the trend but is honest about downside risk.
For directional traders, the key is timeframe discipline: the daily signal is still up, but the 1H and 15m show a maturing leg rather than a fresh breakout. This argues against aggressive new longs at market unless you are comfortable sitting through a potential pullback toward the daily EMAs. In practical terms, it is more rational to focus on how ETH behaves around $3,300 support and $3,400 resistance than to anchor on a specific price target.
Volatility is elevated but not extreme: a $100+ daily range is normal right now. That means both upside and downside moves can be sharp enough to trigger emotional decisions if size and leverage are not calibrated. Tight stops in noisy intraday zones like $3,360 can get harvested easily, while very wide stops can turn a tactical trade into an unintended swing position.
The honest read: Ethereum price is bullish until it is not, but the odds of a shakeout or sideways digestion are meaningfully higher now than they were earlier in the leg. Being aware of the key inflection levels, specifically $3,300 support, $3,400 resistance, and $3,150–$3,200 as deeper support, and respecting the current volatility regime matters more than trying to nail the next $50 move.
Trading Tools
If you want to monitor markets with professional charting tools and real-time data, you can open an account on Investing using our partner link:
Open your Investing.com account
This section contains a sponsored affiliate link. We may earn a commission at no additional cost to you.
Disclaimer: This article is a technical and market-structure analysis, not investment advice. Markets are volatile and unpredictable; always do your own research, consider your risk tolerance, and never rely solely on a single analysis or indicator when making trading decisions.
Why Arthur Hayes is betting on a 2026 bitcoin liquidity rebound with MSTR, Metaplanet and Zcash
In his latest analysis on shifting macro conditions, arthur hayes lays out a case for a 2026 bitcoin liquidity rebound after a difficult 2025.
From 2025 underperformance to a 2026 liquidity turn
Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, argues that Bitcoin‘s weak performance in 2025 was not a verdict on so-called crypto narratives but a straightforward dollar-credit story. Instead, he frames the year as a test of how markets react when US dollar liquidity tightens and cross-asset correlations break down.
According to Hayes, Bitcoin lagged both gold and US tech stocks through 2025, even as it still behaved “as expected” under tightening financial conditions. However, he notes that this divergence did not invalidate the idea of Bitcoin as either digital gold or a high-beta proxy for tech, but rather exposed how those labels can be misleading when liquidity shrinks.
Hayes points out that, in his view, the real story was that Bitcoin underperformed while gold and the Nasdaq 100 rose for different structural reasons, despite falling dollar liquidity. That said, he stresses that this performance gap sets the stage for 2026, when he expects conditions to reverse.
Gold, AI equities and the liquidity puzzle
On gold, Hayes argues that the bid is now dominated by sovereign balance sheets rather than retail speculation. Moreover, he links the metal’s strength to growing distrust of US Treasury exposure following past episodes where assets were frozen, highlighting that central banks behave as price-insensitive buyers.
He sums up this risk bluntly: “If the US president steals your money, it’s an instant zero. Does it then matter what price you buy gold at?” In this framing, gold demand is less about short-term trading and more about hedging political and sanctions risk.
Turning to equities, Hayes leans into an industrial-policy reading of the AI trade. He claims the US and China both treat “winning AI” as a strategic objective, which dulls normal market discipline and helps explain why the Nasdaq decoupled from his dollar-liquidity index in 2025. However, this decoupling is precisely what leads him back to liquidity as the main variable for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin, Nasdaq and the role of dollar liquidity
Hayes writes that Bitcoin and the Nasdaq typically rise when dollar liquidity expands, and the “only problem” is the recent divergence between tech stocks and his liquidity indicators. He repeatedly returns to what he calls the “vicissitudes of dollar liquidity” as the primary driver to monitor, rather than sentiment shifts or narrative changes.
In his view, the key takeaway for 2026 is straightforward: Bitcoin needs expanding dollar liquidity to regain momentum. Moreover, he contends that both Bitcoin and dollar liquidity bottomed at roughly the same time, arguing that the next major move will depend more on renewed credit expansion than on speculative mania.
This is where the phrase arthur hayes becomes shorthand for a broader macro thesis. He is not simply calling for higher prices; he is mapping Bitcoin’s path to the same forces that shape credit, central-bank balance sheets and government policy.
The three-pillar case for a 2026 liquidity rebound
Hayes’s 2026 outlook rests on a sharp rebound in US dollar credit creation built on three main channels. First is a growing Federal Reserve balance sheet driven by Reserve Management Purchases (RMP). Second is commercial bank lending into “strategic industries.” Third is lower mortgage rates triggered by policy-directed demand for mortgage-backed securities.
In his account, quantitative tightening faded as a major headwind in late 2025, with QT ending in December and RMP beginning as a new, steady buyer of assets. He claims RMP “at a minimum” is expanding the Fed’s balance sheet by $40 billion per month, and he expects that pace to rise as US government funding needs grow.
The second pillar is bank credit creation, which he says accelerated in 4Q25 as large lenders became more willing to extend loans into areas where government equity stakes or offtake agreements reduce default risk. However, he also flags this as a politically driven process, not a purely market-driven one.
The third pillar is housing. Hayes cites Trump-backed directives for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to deploy $200 billion toward purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Moreover, he expects this support to push mortgage rates lower, potentially rekindling a familiar wealth effect in housing and, by extension, more consumer credit.
He ties all three elements together with a simple conclusion: if liquidity turns decisively higher, Bitcoin should follow that trend. That said, he presents this as a macro timing framework rather than a promise of a straight line upward.
Adding risk: MSTR, Metaplanet and Zcash
Against this backdrop, Hayes says he is actively adding risk for 2026. He describes himself as a “degen speculator” and notes that Maelstrom is already “nearly fully invested,” yet he still wants “MOAR risk” to capture convex upside if Bitcoin reclaims higher levels.
Rather than using perpetual futures or options, Hayes is long Strategy (MSTR) and Japan’s Metaplanet to gain levered exposure via corporate balance sheets. Moreover, he views these equities as high-torque expressions of a renewed Bitcoin bull market that can outperform the underlying asset.
His timing argument rests on valuation relativity. He compares each company’s “DAT” to Bitcoin priced in the relevant currency (yen for Metaplanet and dollars for Strategy) and says those ratios are near the low end of the past two years. He notes they are “down substantially” from their mid-2025 peaks, which he views as an appealing entry zone.
Hayes adds an important trigger level: “If Bitcoin can retake $110,000, investors will get the itch to go long Bitcoin through these vehicles. Given the leverage embedded in the capital structure of these businesses, they will outperform Bitcoin on the upside.” However, he also implies that this leverage cuts both ways in a downturn.
Continued Zcash accumulation and ECC’s pivot
Alongside the equity bets, Hayes highlights continued accumulation of Zcash (ZEC). He argues that the departure of developers from Electric Coin Company (ECC) should not be read as a bearish signal for the privacy-focused network.
“We continue to add to our Zcash position. The departure of the devs at ECC is not bearish. I firmly believe they will ship better, more impactful products within their own for-profit entity. I’m thankful for the opportunity to buy discounted ZEC from weak hands,” he writes, underscoring his long-term conviction.
At press time, MSTR traded at $179.33, offering a real-time reference point for his leveraged Bitcoin-equity thesis. Moreover, this price anchors his broader argument that valuation dispersion across Bitcoin-linked assets can offer attractive entry points ahead of a possible 2026 liquidity resurgence.
Outlook: liquidity first, narratives second
Hayes’s “Frowny Cloud” essay ultimately prioritizes dollar liquidity over narratives when explaining Bitcoin’s 2025 underperformance and potential 2026 recovery. In his framework, sovereign gold buying, AI-driven industrial policy and housing support programs are all parts of the same credit cycle.
If his three-pillar view on US dollar liquidity proves correct, Bitcoin and its levered plays such as Strategy, Metaplanet and Zcash could stand to benefit disproportionately. However, as Hayes himself implies, the trade is only as strong as the next leg of credit expansion.
From 2025 underperformance to a 2026 liquidity turn
Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, argues that Bitcoin‘s weak performance in 2025 was not a verdict on so-called crypto narratives but a straightforward dollar-credit story. Instead, he frames the year as a test of how markets react when US dollar liquidity tightens and cross-asset correlations break down.
According to Hayes, Bitcoin lagged both gold and US tech stocks through 2025, even as it still behaved “as expected” under tightening financial conditions. However, he notes that this divergence did not invalidate the idea of Bitcoin as either digital gold or a high-beta proxy for tech, but rather exposed how those labels can be misleading when liquidity shrinks.
Hayes points out that, in his view, the real story was that Bitcoin underperformed while gold and the Nasdaq 100 rose for different structural reasons, despite falling dollar liquidity. That said, he stresses that this performance gap sets the stage for 2026, when he expects conditions to reverse.
Gold, AI equities and the liquidity puzzle
On gold, Hayes argues that the bid is now dominated by sovereign balance sheets rather than retail speculation. Moreover, he links the metal’s strength to growing distrust of US Treasury exposure following past episodes where assets were frozen, highlighting that central banks behave as price-insensitive buyers.
He sums up this risk bluntly: “If the US president steals your money, it’s an instant zero. Does it then matter what price you buy gold at?” In this framing, gold demand is less about short-term trading and more about hedging political and sanctions risk.
Turning to equities, Hayes leans into an industrial-policy reading of the AI trade. He claims the US and China both treat “winning AI” as a strategic objective, which dulls normal market discipline and helps explain why the Nasdaq decoupled from his dollar-liquidity index in 2025. However, this decoupling is precisely what leads him back to liquidity as the main variable for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin, Nasdaq and the role of dollar liquidity
Hayes writes that Bitcoin and the Nasdaq typically rise when dollar liquidity expands, and the “only problem” is the recent divergence between tech stocks and his liquidity indicators. He repeatedly returns to what he calls the “vicissitudes of dollar liquidity” as the primary driver to monitor, rather than sentiment shifts or narrative changes.
In his view, the key takeaway for 2026 is straightforward: Bitcoin needs expanding dollar liquidity to regain momentum. Moreover, he contends that both Bitcoin and dollar liquidity bottomed at roughly the same time, arguing that the next major move will depend more on renewed credit expansion than on speculative mania.
This is where the phrase arthur hayes becomes shorthand for a broader macro thesis. He is not simply calling for higher prices; he is mapping Bitcoin’s path to the same forces that shape credit, central-bank balance sheets and government policy.
The three-pillar case for a 2026 liquidity rebound
Hayes’s 2026 outlook rests on a sharp rebound in US dollar credit creation built on three main channels. First is a growing Federal Reserve balance sheet driven by Reserve Management Purchases (RMP). Second is commercial bank lending into “strategic industries.” Third is lower mortgage rates triggered by policy-directed demand for mortgage-backed securities.
In his account, quantitative tightening faded as a major headwind in late 2025, with QT ending in December and RMP beginning as a new, steady buyer of assets. He claims RMP “at a minimum” is expanding the Fed’s balance sheet by $40 billion per month, and he expects that pace to rise as US government funding needs grow.
The second pillar is bank credit creation, which he says accelerated in 4Q25 as large lenders became more willing to extend loans into areas where government equity stakes or offtake agreements reduce default risk. However, he also flags this as a politically driven process, not a purely market-driven one.
The third pillar is housing. Hayes cites Trump-backed directives for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to deploy $200 billion toward purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Moreover, he expects this support to push mortgage rates lower, potentially rekindling a familiar wealth effect in housing and, by extension, more consumer credit.
He ties all three elements together with a simple conclusion: if liquidity turns decisively higher, Bitcoin should follow that trend. That said, he presents this as a macro timing framework rather than a promise of a straight line upward.
Adding risk: MSTR, Metaplanet and Zcash
Against this backdrop, Hayes says he is actively adding risk for 2026. He describes himself as a “degen speculator” and notes that Maelstrom is already “nearly fully invested,” yet he still wants “MOAR risk” to capture convex upside if Bitcoin reclaims higher levels.
Rather than using perpetual futures or options, Hayes is long Strategy (MSTR) and Japan’s Metaplanet to gain levered exposure via corporate balance sheets. Moreover, he views these equities as high-torque expressions of a renewed Bitcoin bull market that can outperform the underlying asset.
His timing argument rests on valuation relativity. He compares each company’s “DAT” to Bitcoin priced in the relevant currency (yen for Metaplanet and dollars for Strategy) and says those ratios are near the low end of the past two years. He notes they are “down substantially” from their mid-2025 peaks, which he views as an appealing entry zone.
Hayes adds an important trigger level: “If Bitcoin can retake $110,000, investors will get the itch to go long Bitcoin through these vehicles. Given the leverage embedded in the capital structure of these businesses, they will outperform Bitcoin on the upside.” However, he also implies that this leverage cuts both ways in a downturn.
Continued Zcash accumulation and ECC’s pivot
Alongside the equity bets, Hayes highlights continued accumulation of Zcash (ZEC). He argues that the departure of developers from Electric Coin Company (ECC) should not be read as a bearish signal for the privacy-focused network.
“We continue to add to our Zcash position. The departure of the devs at ECC is not bearish. I firmly believe they will ship better, more impactful products within their own for-profit entity. I’m thankful for the opportunity to buy discounted ZEC from weak hands,” he writes, underscoring his long-term conviction.
At press time, MSTR traded at $179.33, offering a real-time reference point for his leveraged Bitcoin-equity thesis. Moreover, this price anchors his broader argument that valuation dispersion across Bitcoin-linked assets can offer attractive entry points ahead of a possible 2026 liquidity resurgence.
Outlook: liquidity first, narratives second
Hayes’s “Frowny Cloud” essay ultimately prioritizes dollar liquidity over narratives when explaining Bitcoin’s 2025 underperformance and potential 2026 recovery. In his framework, sovereign gold buying, AI-driven industrial policy and housing support programs are all parts of the same credit cycle.
If his three-pillar view on US dollar liquidity proves correct, Bitcoin and its levered plays such as Strategy, Metaplanet and Zcash could stand to benefit disproportionately. However, as Hayes himself implies, the trade is only as strong as the next leg of credit expansion.
Bond market calm supports bitcoin rally prospects toward six-figure prices
Investor appetite for risk assets is rising as the prospect of a sustained bitcoin rally converges with the sharp drop in U.S. Treasury bond volatility.
MOVE index hits lowest level since October 2021
The ICE BofA MOVE index, a widely tracked gauge of expected volatility in U.S. Treasury bonds over four weeks, has fallen to 58, its lowest reading since October 2021, according to TradingView. Moreover, this marks the extension of a decline that began in April last year, signaling a notably calmer backdrop for the global bond market.
The U.S. Treasury market is viewed as the cornerstone of global finance, with outstanding credit quality and an extremely low perceived risk of default. Its debt is widely deployed as collateral across loans, derivatives, and other instruments, effectively underpinning much of the world’s financial plumbing and day-to-day liquidity.
When Treasury prices swing violently, credit conditions tend to tighten and lenders become cautious, which reduces risk-taking across both the real economy and financial markets. However, when price moves are subdued, credit creation generally becomes easier, encouraging investors to allocate more capital toward riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies and growth equities.
Bitcoin trades near $96,300 as volatility sinks
The current bond market backdrop is increasingly supportive of rallies in bitcoin, which is trading around $96,300, as well as in major tech stocks. That said, this calmer environment follows a sharp reset in digital asset prices during 2022 and a powerful price recovery through 2023, underlining how macro conditions can swiftly change sentiment.
Bitcoin has already rallied about 10% since the start of the year, pushing analysts to forecast an advance beyond $100,000 for the first time since mid-November. The combination of subdued Treasury bond swings and renewed institutional interest is strengthening expectations that the ongoing bitcoin rally could extend into six-figure territory.
Correlation with Nasdaq 100 and MOVE index remains key
While some supporters describe bitcoin as digital gold, its trading history shows a closer relationship with Wall Street’s tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index. Moreover, it has generally moved in the opposite direction to the MOVE index, which tracks implied U.S. Treasury bond volatility and acts as a barometer of stress in government debt markets.
This inverse relationship with the MOVE index persisted during bitcoin’s sharp crash in 2022 and throughout the bull run that began in 2023. In practice, periods of falling bond volatility have often coincided with stronger demand for cryptocurrencies and growth shares, reinforcing the narrative that a move index decline can act as a tailwind for speculative assets.
Supportive backdrop but lingering macro risks
The current drop in Treasury volatility does not guarantee further gains, and no single signal should be treated as a flawless timing tool. However, the present mix of calmer bond markets, solid price momentum, and continued bitcoin etf inflows is adding another layer to the bullish thesis for digital assets.
Markets still face potential headwinds, especially if geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran intensify or if frustration over delays to the Clarity Act crypto regulation bill grows. Such developments could quickly reduce risk appetite, reminding traders that even a strong bitcoin rally remains vulnerable to sudden shifts in macro and policy expectations.
In summary, the lowest Treasury volatility since October 2021, as captured by the MOVE index reading of 58, is helping support the broader case for a continued upswing in bitcoin and other risk assets, even as investors stay alert to geopolitical and regulatory risks.
MOVE index hits lowest level since October 2021
The ICE BofA MOVE index, a widely tracked gauge of expected volatility in U.S. Treasury bonds over four weeks, has fallen to 58, its lowest reading since October 2021, according to TradingView. Moreover, this marks the extension of a decline that began in April last year, signaling a notably calmer backdrop for the global bond market.
The U.S. Treasury market is viewed as the cornerstone of global finance, with outstanding credit quality and an extremely low perceived risk of default. Its debt is widely deployed as collateral across loans, derivatives, and other instruments, effectively underpinning much of the world’s financial plumbing and day-to-day liquidity.
When Treasury prices swing violently, credit conditions tend to tighten and lenders become cautious, which reduces risk-taking across both the real economy and financial markets. However, when price moves are subdued, credit creation generally becomes easier, encouraging investors to allocate more capital toward riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies and growth equities.
Bitcoin trades near $96,300 as volatility sinks
The current bond market backdrop is increasingly supportive of rallies in bitcoin, which is trading around $96,300, as well as in major tech stocks. That said, this calmer environment follows a sharp reset in digital asset prices during 2022 and a powerful price recovery through 2023, underlining how macro conditions can swiftly change sentiment.
Bitcoin has already rallied about 10% since the start of the year, pushing analysts to forecast an advance beyond $100,000 for the first time since mid-November. The combination of subdued Treasury bond swings and renewed institutional interest is strengthening expectations that the ongoing bitcoin rally could extend into six-figure territory.
Correlation with Nasdaq 100 and MOVE index remains key
While some supporters describe bitcoin as digital gold, its trading history shows a closer relationship with Wall Street’s tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index. Moreover, it has generally moved in the opposite direction to the MOVE index, which tracks implied U.S. Treasury bond volatility and acts as a barometer of stress in government debt markets.
This inverse relationship with the MOVE index persisted during bitcoin’s sharp crash in 2022 and throughout the bull run that began in 2023. In practice, periods of falling bond volatility have often coincided with stronger demand for cryptocurrencies and growth shares, reinforcing the narrative that a move index decline can act as a tailwind for speculative assets.
Supportive backdrop but lingering macro risks
The current drop in Treasury volatility does not guarantee further gains, and no single signal should be treated as a flawless timing tool. However, the present mix of calmer bond markets, solid price momentum, and continued bitcoin etf inflows is adding another layer to the bullish thesis for digital assets.
Markets still face potential headwinds, especially if geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran intensify or if frustration over delays to the Clarity Act crypto regulation bill grows. Such developments could quickly reduce risk appetite, reminding traders that even a strong bitcoin rally remains vulnerable to sudden shifts in macro and policy expectations.
In summary, the lowest Treasury volatility since October 2021, as captured by the MOVE index reading of 58, is helping support the broader case for a continued upswing in bitcoin and other risk assets, even as investors stay alert to geopolitical and regulatory risks.
How bitcoin credit argentina is reshaping access to everyday finance
Amid inflation and financial uncertainty, bitcoin credit argentina is emerging as a bridge between digital savings and real-world spending for millions of users.
Argentina pushes crypto deeper into everyday finance
Argentina continues to lead global crypto adoption as citizens search for options beyond a fragile financial system. High inflation, currency depreciation, and strict banking rules have pushed millions toward digital assets. Bitcoin already serves as a popular store of value. However, using it for daily spending often forces users to sell assets they want to hold.
Lemon’s latest move directly addresses this gap by linking Bitcoin holdings with real-world credit access. The launch comes as traditional credit remains out of reach for a large part of the population. Moreover, the country faces structural financial issues that banks have struggled to solve.
Banks still require credit history, formal income proof, and long approval timelines. Many Argentines work outside formal employment structures, which leaves them excluded from basic financial tools. By allowing users to unlock peso credit through their Bitcoin holdings, Lemon removes several long-standing barriers at once and offers an alternative path to financing.
How Lemon’s Bitcoin-backed card actually works
Lemon’s new Visa card lets users access peso-denominated credit using Bitcoin as collateral. Instead of selling BTC, customers deposit it as security and receive a credit line based on the asset’s value. They can then spend pesos at any merchant that accepts Visa, just like with a traditional credit card.
Repayments also take place in pesos, so users maintain long-term exposure to Bitcoin while still covering local expenses. This structure differs sharply from prepaid crypto cards that convert assets at the point of sale. Moreover, the credit approach offers more flexibility in how and when people spend.
The credit model protects customers from mistimed asset sales during volatile markets. As Bitcoin prices rise, available credit may also expand, which rewards long-term holders. That said, users still carry market risk on their collateral. The system nonetheless removes dependence on banks while keeping familiar payment experiences.
From prepaid cards to an asset based lending argentina model
This innovation places Argentina at the center of a growing shift toward asset based lending argentina. The bitcoin backed visa card turns crypto from a passive hedge into a practical financial resource. It shows how platforms now build products around day-to-day use rather than pure speculation.
Unlike prepaid solutions, the lemon bitcoin credit card works as a revolving line of credit secured by BTC. However, the spending currency remains the peso, which keeps the experience intuitive for local users. This setup also helps merchants accept payments without touching crypto themselves.
As a result, crypto payments everyday use becomes more realistic in a market plagued by inflation. The card infrastructure sits on traditional rails such as Visa, while the funding logic draws from decentralized finance. This hybrid model could set a precedent for other emerging economies.
Why Bitcoin collateral can replace banks and credit scores
Traditional credit relies heavily on personal financial records and formal employment, which excludes millions globally. Lemon instead uses a bitcoin collateral lending model to power its new product. Bitcoin collateral guarantees repayment without demanding income statements, employment verification, or credit scores.
This approach aligns with decentralized finance principles while staying user-friendly. Moreover, it shifts control back to the borrower. Users decide how much risk they take and when to repay, within the platform’s limits.
The platform focuses on asset value rather than personal background, which reduces discrimination and bureaucracy. This structure makes credit accessible to freelancers, gig workers, and young people just entering the workforce. It also illustrates how crypto credit for argentines can function at scale.
Why this crypto credit card matters for Argentina’s economy
Argentina’s economy has struggled for years with persistent inflation and currency instability. Peso savings lose purchasing power quickly, pushing citizens toward alternative stores of value such as Bitcoin. However, liquidity for everyday expenses has remained limited for many holders.
The crypto credit card model bridges that gap by allowing users to spend without disposing of their inflation hedge. It offers peso credit with bitcoin as collateral rather than selling coins outright. That said, borrowers still need to manage volatility risk on the underlying asset.
This approach also reduces reliance on predatory lending. Many Argentines turn to high-interest informal loans when banks reject them. Crypto-backed credit instead introduces transparent terms and predictable conditions. Users can clearly understand collateral requirements and repayment obligations.
Bitcoin credit argentina moves closer to everyday utility
Lemon’s launch marks a shift in how Bitcoin fits into daily life across the country. The bitcoin credit argentina framework transforms BTC from a long-term hedge into a functional financial tool. Users gain spending power while retaining ownership of their digital assets.
This balance may define the next stage of crypto adoption in inflation-hit economies. Moreover, it underscores how digital assets can support real economic activity rather than mere trading. The Bitcoin-backed Visa card positions Argentina as a leader in crypto-powered credit innovation.
As global financial systems evolve, such models could reshape how credit is issued and who can access it. Argentina’s experience will likely be closely watched by policymakers, fintech founders, and crypto investors looking for scalable inclusion strategies.
In summary, Lemon’s product connects Bitcoin savings with accessible peso credit, offering Argentines a new way to manage volatility, preserve value, and participate more fully in the formal economy.
Argentina pushes crypto deeper into everyday finance
Argentina continues to lead global crypto adoption as citizens search for options beyond a fragile financial system. High inflation, currency depreciation, and strict banking rules have pushed millions toward digital assets. Bitcoin already serves as a popular store of value. However, using it for daily spending often forces users to sell assets they want to hold.
Lemon’s latest move directly addresses this gap by linking Bitcoin holdings with real-world credit access. The launch comes as traditional credit remains out of reach for a large part of the population. Moreover, the country faces structural financial issues that banks have struggled to solve.
Banks still require credit history, formal income proof, and long approval timelines. Many Argentines work outside formal employment structures, which leaves them excluded from basic financial tools. By allowing users to unlock peso credit through their Bitcoin holdings, Lemon removes several long-standing barriers at once and offers an alternative path to financing.
How Lemon’s Bitcoin-backed card actually works
Lemon’s new Visa card lets users access peso-denominated credit using Bitcoin as collateral. Instead of selling BTC, customers deposit it as security and receive a credit line based on the asset’s value. They can then spend pesos at any merchant that accepts Visa, just like with a traditional credit card.
Repayments also take place in pesos, so users maintain long-term exposure to Bitcoin while still covering local expenses. This structure differs sharply from prepaid crypto cards that convert assets at the point of sale. Moreover, the credit approach offers more flexibility in how and when people spend.
The credit model protects customers from mistimed asset sales during volatile markets. As Bitcoin prices rise, available credit may also expand, which rewards long-term holders. That said, users still carry market risk on their collateral. The system nonetheless removes dependence on banks while keeping familiar payment experiences.
From prepaid cards to an asset based lending argentina model
This innovation places Argentina at the center of a growing shift toward asset based lending argentina. The bitcoin backed visa card turns crypto from a passive hedge into a practical financial resource. It shows how platforms now build products around day-to-day use rather than pure speculation.
Unlike prepaid solutions, the lemon bitcoin credit card works as a revolving line of credit secured by BTC. However, the spending currency remains the peso, which keeps the experience intuitive for local users. This setup also helps merchants accept payments without touching crypto themselves.
As a result, crypto payments everyday use becomes more realistic in a market plagued by inflation. The card infrastructure sits on traditional rails such as Visa, while the funding logic draws from decentralized finance. This hybrid model could set a precedent for other emerging economies.
Why Bitcoin collateral can replace banks and credit scores
Traditional credit relies heavily on personal financial records and formal employment, which excludes millions globally. Lemon instead uses a bitcoin collateral lending model to power its new product. Bitcoin collateral guarantees repayment without demanding income statements, employment verification, or credit scores.
This approach aligns with decentralized finance principles while staying user-friendly. Moreover, it shifts control back to the borrower. Users decide how much risk they take and when to repay, within the platform’s limits.
The platform focuses on asset value rather than personal background, which reduces discrimination and bureaucracy. This structure makes credit accessible to freelancers, gig workers, and young people just entering the workforce. It also illustrates how crypto credit for argentines can function at scale.
Why this crypto credit card matters for Argentina’s economy
Argentina’s economy has struggled for years with persistent inflation and currency instability. Peso savings lose purchasing power quickly, pushing citizens toward alternative stores of value such as Bitcoin. However, liquidity for everyday expenses has remained limited for many holders.
The crypto credit card model bridges that gap by allowing users to spend without disposing of their inflation hedge. It offers peso credit with bitcoin as collateral rather than selling coins outright. That said, borrowers still need to manage volatility risk on the underlying asset.
This approach also reduces reliance on predatory lending. Many Argentines turn to high-interest informal loans when banks reject them. Crypto-backed credit instead introduces transparent terms and predictable conditions. Users can clearly understand collateral requirements and repayment obligations.
Bitcoin credit argentina moves closer to everyday utility
Lemon’s launch marks a shift in how Bitcoin fits into daily life across the country. The bitcoin credit argentina framework transforms BTC from a long-term hedge into a functional financial tool. Users gain spending power while retaining ownership of their digital assets.
This balance may define the next stage of crypto adoption in inflation-hit economies. Moreover, it underscores how digital assets can support real economic activity rather than mere trading. The Bitcoin-backed Visa card positions Argentina as a leader in crypto-powered credit innovation.
As global financial systems evolve, such models could reshape how credit is issued and who can access it. Argentina’s experience will likely be closely watched by policymakers, fintech founders, and crypto investors looking for scalable inclusion strategies.
In summary, Lemon’s product connects Bitcoin savings with accessible peso credit, offering Argentines a new way to manage volatility, preserve value, and participate more fully in the formal economy.
How the digital yuan corruption scandal ensnared architect Yao Qian and reshaped China’s crypto c...
Chinese authorities have turned the high-profile digital yuan corruption case of former regulator Yao Qian into a showcase of how blockchain can also expose financial crime.
Former digital yuan architect accused of multimillion crypto bribery
Chinese state media revealed that former central bank official Yao Qian, once a key architect of the digital yuan, accepted more than $8 million in cryptocurrency bribes while holding senior regulatory posts. However, the same blockchain infrastructure he helped pioneer ultimately revealed his scheme.
State broadcaster CCTV detailed the case on January 14 in a documentary titled “Technology Empowering Anti-Corruption.” Investigators traced 2,000 Ethereum, valued at around 60 million yuan at peak prices, sent by a businessman in 2018 to a wallet controlled by Yao.
According to the program, Yao, the former director of the Digital Currency Research Institute at the People’s Bank of China, allegedly used multiple shell accounts and blockchain addresses to hide bribes worth at least 22 million yuan ($3.1 million) in fiat, alongside substantial crypto holdings. Moreover, he is accused of leveraging his influence over digital asset regulation while secretly benefiting from the sector.
Hardware wallets and shell accounts exposed the bribery network
The investigation gained momentum when inspectors discovered three hardware wallets in a drawer in Yao’s office. The devices looked like ordinary USB sticks but reportedly stored cryptocurrencies worth tens of millions of yuan.
“These three seemingly insignificant little wallets stored tens of millions of yuan,” said Zou Rong, a staff member with the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection stationed at the China Securities Regulatory Commission. However, blockchain transparency allowed authorities to reconstruct transaction flows from these devices.
Yao reportedly assumed that virtual currencies would keep his activities anonymous. That said, investigators used blockchain forensic tracing techniques to map complete transaction histories and connect incoming funds to his personal wallets and spending patterns.
The documentary showed that Yao purchased a Beijing villa worth more than 20 million yuan with funds linked to crypto exchanges. One single payment of 10 million yuan, converted from digital assets, stood out as a key piece of evidence tying on-chain activity to real estate.
Authorities followed money flows through layers of shell accounts controlled by relatives and intermediaries. They concluded that businessman Wang transferred 12 million yuan via an information services company in return for regulatory favors allegedly granted by Yao.
“He believed that after setting up multiple layers, the system would be more isolated,” said Shi Changping of the Shanwei City Discipline Inspection Commission. “In fact, multiple parties made the evidence chain more complete.” Moreover, each added intermediary left additional records for investigators to connect.
Although Yao’s official bank accounts showed no clear anomalies, cross-checking with government databases exposed accounts opened under other identities that he secretly controlled. These channels received large transfers that investigators traced back through four layers to crypto exchange fund accounts.
From there, authorities linked the movements of money to property purchases and dealings with technology service providers. The case demonstrated how combining traditional financial forensics with on-chain analytics can pierce even complex concealment structures.
Subordinate built crypto channels for bribes
Investigators identified Jiang Guoqing, Yao’s longtime subordinate, as a key intermediary in the alleged china crypto bribery network. Jiang followed Yao from the People’s Bank to the securities regulator and helped manage digital payments to his superior.
“I set up a transfer address where people would send coins, then transfer them to Yao Qian’s personal wallet,” Jiang admitted in the program. He acknowledged that he personally profited from facilitating these power-for-money transactions involving cryptocurrency transfers.
In 2018, Jiang introduced businessman Zhang to Yao. Using his regulatory influence and industry reputation, Yao allegedly helped Zhang’s company issue tokens and raise 20,000 Ethereum via a cryptocurrency exchange, in return for 2,000 Ethereum as payment.
“Yao Qian has great influence in the industry because of his position,” Jiang told investigators. Moreover, he explained how regulatory authority could be converted into privileged access to token issuance channels and liquidity in digital asset markets.
Beyond crypto, prosecutors documented that Yao accepted expensive gifts, hosted lavish banquets, interfered with employee recruitment, and steered software procurement contracts while at the China Securities Regulatory Commission. These patterns fit a broader securities regulator corruption probe into abuse of office.
The investigation also noted that Yao engaged in superstitious rituals, a serious ideological violation under Communist Party rules. He allegedly built relationships with individuals described as “key training targets” for illicit activities, indicating premeditated efforts to construct a protection network.
Party discipline, prosecution and lessons for crypto oversight
Yao was expelled from the Communist Party of China in November 2024 and handed over for criminal prosecution. However, investigators highlighted that the case went beyond individual wrongdoing, providing a model for future digital asset oversight.
Authorities said they achieved “mutual corroboration and a closed loop of evidence” by combining blockchain data, property records, banking information and internal Party discipline files. This integrated approach turned the yao qian bribery case into a reference point for handling similar investigations.
Officials stressed that “cryptocurrency is useless if it can’t be cashed out—when virtual assets eventually become real assets, their true nature is easily exposed.” Moreover, the unfinished villa that Yao bought with converted crypto funds became a powerful physical symbol of his alleged misconduct.
The property, still under construction when he was detained, connected years of digital transfers to a tangible asset. That said, the scandal has not halted Beijing’s broader efforts to regulate and harness blockchain payment systems.
Digital yuan strategy continues despite high-profile scandal
Despite the digital yuan corruption scandal, China’s ambitions for a central bank digital currency remain intact. The People’s Bank of China was supposed to roll out a new framework on January 1 allowing commercial banks to pay interest on e-CNY wallet balances.
The policy aims to address structural digital yuan adoption challenges. Through November 2025, the e-CNY had processed 3.48 billion transactions with a cumulative value of 16.7 trillion yuan. However, it still lags far behind private payment giants Alipay and WeChat Pay, which together control more than 90% of China’s mobile payments market.
For regulators, the Yao case illustrates both the risks and opportunities created by state-backed digital money. On one hand, hardware wallet corruption and complex shell structures can facilitate hidden dealings. On the other, blockchain transparency offers powerful tools to detect, trace and prosecute misconduct.
In summary, Yao Qian’s downfall has become a test case for how China balances innovation in digital currency with strict political control and anti-corruption enforcement, shaping the future trajectory of its financial technology regime.
Former digital yuan architect accused of multimillion crypto bribery
Chinese state media revealed that former central bank official Yao Qian, once a key architect of the digital yuan, accepted more than $8 million in cryptocurrency bribes while holding senior regulatory posts. However, the same blockchain infrastructure he helped pioneer ultimately revealed his scheme.
State broadcaster CCTV detailed the case on January 14 in a documentary titled “Technology Empowering Anti-Corruption.” Investigators traced 2,000 Ethereum, valued at around 60 million yuan at peak prices, sent by a businessman in 2018 to a wallet controlled by Yao.
According to the program, Yao, the former director of the Digital Currency Research Institute at the People’s Bank of China, allegedly used multiple shell accounts and blockchain addresses to hide bribes worth at least 22 million yuan ($3.1 million) in fiat, alongside substantial crypto holdings. Moreover, he is accused of leveraging his influence over digital asset regulation while secretly benefiting from the sector.
Hardware wallets and shell accounts exposed the bribery network
The investigation gained momentum when inspectors discovered three hardware wallets in a drawer in Yao’s office. The devices looked like ordinary USB sticks but reportedly stored cryptocurrencies worth tens of millions of yuan.
“These three seemingly insignificant little wallets stored tens of millions of yuan,” said Zou Rong, a staff member with the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection stationed at the China Securities Regulatory Commission. However, blockchain transparency allowed authorities to reconstruct transaction flows from these devices.
Yao reportedly assumed that virtual currencies would keep his activities anonymous. That said, investigators used blockchain forensic tracing techniques to map complete transaction histories and connect incoming funds to his personal wallets and spending patterns.
The documentary showed that Yao purchased a Beijing villa worth more than 20 million yuan with funds linked to crypto exchanges. One single payment of 10 million yuan, converted from digital assets, stood out as a key piece of evidence tying on-chain activity to real estate.
Authorities followed money flows through layers of shell accounts controlled by relatives and intermediaries. They concluded that businessman Wang transferred 12 million yuan via an information services company in return for regulatory favors allegedly granted by Yao.
“He believed that after setting up multiple layers, the system would be more isolated,” said Shi Changping of the Shanwei City Discipline Inspection Commission. “In fact, multiple parties made the evidence chain more complete.” Moreover, each added intermediary left additional records for investigators to connect.
Although Yao’s official bank accounts showed no clear anomalies, cross-checking with government databases exposed accounts opened under other identities that he secretly controlled. These channels received large transfers that investigators traced back through four layers to crypto exchange fund accounts.
From there, authorities linked the movements of money to property purchases and dealings with technology service providers. The case demonstrated how combining traditional financial forensics with on-chain analytics can pierce even complex concealment structures.
Subordinate built crypto channels for bribes
Investigators identified Jiang Guoqing, Yao’s longtime subordinate, as a key intermediary in the alleged china crypto bribery network. Jiang followed Yao from the People’s Bank to the securities regulator and helped manage digital payments to his superior.
“I set up a transfer address where people would send coins, then transfer them to Yao Qian’s personal wallet,” Jiang admitted in the program. He acknowledged that he personally profited from facilitating these power-for-money transactions involving cryptocurrency transfers.
In 2018, Jiang introduced businessman Zhang to Yao. Using his regulatory influence and industry reputation, Yao allegedly helped Zhang’s company issue tokens and raise 20,000 Ethereum via a cryptocurrency exchange, in return for 2,000 Ethereum as payment.
“Yao Qian has great influence in the industry because of his position,” Jiang told investigators. Moreover, he explained how regulatory authority could be converted into privileged access to token issuance channels and liquidity in digital asset markets.
Beyond crypto, prosecutors documented that Yao accepted expensive gifts, hosted lavish banquets, interfered with employee recruitment, and steered software procurement contracts while at the China Securities Regulatory Commission. These patterns fit a broader securities regulator corruption probe into abuse of office.
The investigation also noted that Yao engaged in superstitious rituals, a serious ideological violation under Communist Party rules. He allegedly built relationships with individuals described as “key training targets” for illicit activities, indicating premeditated efforts to construct a protection network.
Party discipline, prosecution and lessons for crypto oversight
Yao was expelled from the Communist Party of China in November 2024 and handed over for criminal prosecution. However, investigators highlighted that the case went beyond individual wrongdoing, providing a model for future digital asset oversight.
Authorities said they achieved “mutual corroboration and a closed loop of evidence” by combining blockchain data, property records, banking information and internal Party discipline files. This integrated approach turned the yao qian bribery case into a reference point for handling similar investigations.
Officials stressed that “cryptocurrency is useless if it can’t be cashed out—when virtual assets eventually become real assets, their true nature is easily exposed.” Moreover, the unfinished villa that Yao bought with converted crypto funds became a powerful physical symbol of his alleged misconduct.
The property, still under construction when he was detained, connected years of digital transfers to a tangible asset. That said, the scandal has not halted Beijing’s broader efforts to regulate and harness blockchain payment systems.
Digital yuan strategy continues despite high-profile scandal
Despite the digital yuan corruption scandal, China’s ambitions for a central bank digital currency remain intact. The People’s Bank of China was supposed to roll out a new framework on January 1 allowing commercial banks to pay interest on e-CNY wallet balances.
The policy aims to address structural digital yuan adoption challenges. Through November 2025, the e-CNY had processed 3.48 billion transactions with a cumulative value of 16.7 trillion yuan. However, it still lags far behind private payment giants Alipay and WeChat Pay, which together control more than 90% of China’s mobile payments market.
For regulators, the Yao case illustrates both the risks and opportunities created by state-backed digital money. On one hand, hardware wallet corruption and complex shell structures can facilitate hidden dealings. On the other, blockchain transparency offers powerful tools to detect, trace and prosecute misconduct.
In summary, Yao Qian’s downfall has become a test case for how China balances innovation in digital currency with strict political control and anti-corruption enforcement, shaping the future trajectory of its financial technology regime.
Canton Network: A New Era for Global Collateral Mobility and Deposit Tokenization
The Canton Network marks a decisive turning point in the global digital finance landscape. On January 15, 2026, Digital Asset and a consortium of leading financial institutions announced the completion of a third series of transactions on the platform, solidifying the network’s position as the go-to infrastructure for global collateral mobility.
This initiative represents a step forward in the realization of ever-active and scalable capital markets, thanks to the adoption of on-chain technologies and the tokenization of deposits.
Collaboration Among Financial Giants
The Canton Network’s industrial working group has recently expanded, welcoming prominent new members such as Euroclear, Euronext, LSEG, and TreasurySpring, alongside Cumberland DRW, Societe Generale, Tradeweb, Virtu Financial, and Digital Asset itself.
This expansion demonstrates the growing traction the project is gaining in European and global financial markets, strengthening collaboration between market infrastructures, banks, and digital solution providers.
Multi-asset and Multi-currency Versatility
For the first time, the working group conducted cross-border intraday repo transactions using multiple currencies and asset classes. The operations involved European government bonds, U.S. Treasuries, euro cash, and U.S. dollars, demonstrating the platform’s flexibility and international reach.
This versatility allows for more dynamic collateral management, enhancing liquidity and efficiency in capital markets.
LSEG DiSH: the tokenization of commercial deposits
One of the key elements of this evolution is the use of LSEG Digital Settlement House (LSEG DiSH). Unlike traditional stablecoins, LSEG DiSH allows for the tokenization of commercial bank deposits, offering a true on-chain cash option.
Users can instantly transfer their deposits to any member of the DiSH network, without the need to maintain direct relationships with each bank. This system enables 24/7 real-time transfers, making tokenized money immediately available as the “cash leg” in intraday repo transactions.
A New Standard for Liquidity
The use of tokenized deposits on Canton Network has enabled the creation of a real liquidity solution, overcoming the limitations of stablecoin-based solutions.
The transactions demonstrate how the mobility of collateral can be enhanced globally, paving the way for a continuously active capital markets infrastructure ready to support new on-chain financing initiatives.
The Voices of the Protagonists
Euroclear: Innovation at the Core of the Strategy
Jorgen Ouaknine, Global Head of Innovation and Digital Assets at Euroclear, emphasizes the importance of collaboration: “Euroclear is pleased to work with these industry leaders to explore the tokenization of deposits through collateral mobility.
As a reliable market infrastructure, we believe that progress in digital finance comes from a close partnership with the market. We aim to unlock new forms of liquidity and offer tangible benefits to our clients, building a more connected and efficient financial ecosystem.”
Euronext: Efficiency and Interoperability
David Leblache, Head of Innovation & AI Products at Euronext, highlights how this initiative reflects the industry’s collective commitment to exploring the potential of tokenization and on-chain infrastructures: “For Euronext, this work aligns with our strategy to support innovation that enhances market efficiency, resilience, and interoperability.”
LSEG: a Real Cash Solution for the Digital
Bud Novin, Head of Payment Systems, Post Trade Solutions at LSEG, expresses enthusiasm for the role of LSEG DiSH: “We are excited about the potential of our DiSH cash service, which offers a true cash solution as the leg of any digital asset transaction.
Tokenizing DiSH Cash on Canton has allowed our clients to benefit from an interoperable commercial bank money solution, on-chain, for settlement against other tokenized assets.”
Digital Asset: Towards a Global Network of Collaterals
Kelly Mathieson, Chief Business Development Officer at Digital Asset, highlights the significance of the milestone achieved: “This result lays the foundation for a true global network of collaterals with on-chain liquidity for high-quality assets.
After the initial tests on US Treasury and USDC stablecoin, we have now unlocked cross-border multi-asset and multi-currency transactions thanks to tokenized deposits, offering more options for the cash leg.”
TreasurySpring: Innovation in the Treasury Ecosystem
Matthew Longhurst, Co-Founder and Chief Innovation Officer of TreasurySpring, highlights how the partnership with Canton Network allows for shaping the future of digital assets within the treasury investment ecosystem, integrating the offering of institutional cash investment products on a global scale.
Future Prospects: Always-On Infrastructures
The recently concluded transactions represent a turning point for the global mobility of collateral and the integration of on-chain liquidity solutions.
The Canton Network working group will continue to collaborate in 2026 on new on-chain financing initiatives, accelerating the transition towards scalable, interconnected, and always available capital markets.
The tokenization of deposits and cross-border mobility of collaterals are no longer just futuristic concepts, but operational realities that are redefining the rules of global finance. With the involvement of leading players and the adoption of innovative technologies, the Canton Network establishes itself as the benchmark platform for the new era of digital finance.
This initiative represents a step forward in the realization of ever-active and scalable capital markets, thanks to the adoption of on-chain technologies and the tokenization of deposits.
Collaboration Among Financial Giants
The Canton Network’s industrial working group has recently expanded, welcoming prominent new members such as Euroclear, Euronext, LSEG, and TreasurySpring, alongside Cumberland DRW, Societe Generale, Tradeweb, Virtu Financial, and Digital Asset itself.
This expansion demonstrates the growing traction the project is gaining in European and global financial markets, strengthening collaboration between market infrastructures, banks, and digital solution providers.
Multi-asset and Multi-currency Versatility
For the first time, the working group conducted cross-border intraday repo transactions using multiple currencies and asset classes. The operations involved European government bonds, U.S. Treasuries, euro cash, and U.S. dollars, demonstrating the platform’s flexibility and international reach.
This versatility allows for more dynamic collateral management, enhancing liquidity and efficiency in capital markets.
LSEG DiSH: the tokenization of commercial deposits
One of the key elements of this evolution is the use of LSEG Digital Settlement House (LSEG DiSH). Unlike traditional stablecoins, LSEG DiSH allows for the tokenization of commercial bank deposits, offering a true on-chain cash option.
Users can instantly transfer their deposits to any member of the DiSH network, without the need to maintain direct relationships with each bank. This system enables 24/7 real-time transfers, making tokenized money immediately available as the “cash leg” in intraday repo transactions.
A New Standard for Liquidity
The use of tokenized deposits on Canton Network has enabled the creation of a real liquidity solution, overcoming the limitations of stablecoin-based solutions.
The transactions demonstrate how the mobility of collateral can be enhanced globally, paving the way for a continuously active capital markets infrastructure ready to support new on-chain financing initiatives.
The Voices of the Protagonists
Euroclear: Innovation at the Core of the Strategy
Jorgen Ouaknine, Global Head of Innovation and Digital Assets at Euroclear, emphasizes the importance of collaboration: “Euroclear is pleased to work with these industry leaders to explore the tokenization of deposits through collateral mobility.
As a reliable market infrastructure, we believe that progress in digital finance comes from a close partnership with the market. We aim to unlock new forms of liquidity and offer tangible benefits to our clients, building a more connected and efficient financial ecosystem.”
Euronext: Efficiency and Interoperability
David Leblache, Head of Innovation & AI Products at Euronext, highlights how this initiative reflects the industry’s collective commitment to exploring the potential of tokenization and on-chain infrastructures: “For Euronext, this work aligns with our strategy to support innovation that enhances market efficiency, resilience, and interoperability.”
LSEG: a Real Cash Solution for the Digital
Bud Novin, Head of Payment Systems, Post Trade Solutions at LSEG, expresses enthusiasm for the role of LSEG DiSH: “We are excited about the potential of our DiSH cash service, which offers a true cash solution as the leg of any digital asset transaction.
Tokenizing DiSH Cash on Canton has allowed our clients to benefit from an interoperable commercial bank money solution, on-chain, for settlement against other tokenized assets.”
Digital Asset: Towards a Global Network of Collaterals
Kelly Mathieson, Chief Business Development Officer at Digital Asset, highlights the significance of the milestone achieved: “This result lays the foundation for a true global network of collaterals with on-chain liquidity for high-quality assets.
After the initial tests on US Treasury and USDC stablecoin, we have now unlocked cross-border multi-asset and multi-currency transactions thanks to tokenized deposits, offering more options for the cash leg.”
TreasurySpring: Innovation in the Treasury Ecosystem
Matthew Longhurst, Co-Founder and Chief Innovation Officer of TreasurySpring, highlights how the partnership with Canton Network allows for shaping the future of digital assets within the treasury investment ecosystem, integrating the offering of institutional cash investment products on a global scale.
Future Prospects: Always-On Infrastructures
The recently concluded transactions represent a turning point for the global mobility of collateral and the integration of on-chain liquidity solutions.
The Canton Network working group will continue to collaborate in 2026 on new on-chain financing initiatives, accelerating the transition towards scalable, interconnected, and always available capital markets.
The tokenization of deposits and cross-border mobility of collaterals are no longer just futuristic concepts, but operational realities that are redefining the rules of global finance. With the involvement of leading players and the adoption of innovative technologies, the Canton Network establishes itself as the benchmark platform for the new era of digital finance.
Solana Mobile details massive skr airdrop for Seeker users and developers
Solana Mobile is preparing its ecosystem for a major incentive push as the first skr airdrop goes live for Seeker phone owners and developers.
Solana Mobile confirms 1.8 billion SKR distribution
On Jan. 21, more than 100,000 Seeker users and 188 developers will receive a combined allocation of 1,819,755,000 SKR and 141,030,000 SKR, respectively. The figures were confirmed in a Wednesday post on X by Solana Mobile, underscoring the scale of the incentive program.
Moreover, an official allocation tracker is now live, allowing participants to verify their individual rewards directly from their integrated seed vault wallet. This tool is designed to make the distribution process transparent and easy to monitor for every eligible holder.
Role of SKR in the Solana Mobile ecosystem
SKR is the native token powering the broader Solana Mobile ecosystem and is closely associated with the second generation of smartphones launched last year. It is intended to function as both a utility and governance asset, giving users more direct influence over platform policies and future development.
However, the token goes beyond simple rewards. Seeker owners will be able to delegate their holdings to designated Guardians, who handle device verification, app curation, and enforcement of community rules. In turn, users gain access to exclusive in-app features and the potential to earn staking-based incentives.
SKR tokenomics and community allocations
According to SKR tokenomics overview documents released earlier this month, the token has a fixed total supply of 10 billion. Of that amount, 30% is reserved for community airdrops, ensuring long-term distribution to active ecosystem participants.
That said, two-thirds of the initial airdrop pool has been specifically earmarked for Solana Seeker users and developers. This structure highlights Solana Mobile’s focus on its hardware community as the primary engine of early adoption and on-chain usage.
In addition, another 2.7 billion SKR scheduled to unlock at the token generation event will be directed toward the community treasury, liquidity provisioning, and broader growth and partnership initiatives. These allocations are meant to support sustainable expansion rather than short-term speculation.
Staking at launch and Guardian participation
The solana mobile token will be stakeable immediately when the program begins on Jan. 21. Users will be able to lock tokens and earn skr staking rewards through Guardians directly from the secure Seed Vault Wallet on their devices.
“SKR can also be staked on the web via the SKR Staking web experience,” Solana Mobile stated. Moreover, this dual staking approach aims to serve both mobile-first users and those who prefer desktop or browser-based interfaces.
Seeker airdrop tiers and maximum rewards
The first skr airdrop season introduces a five-tier reward structure that determines how many tokens each Seeker owner can earn. Solana Mobile explained that the model was “determined by engagement with Seeker, the Solana dApp Store, and on-chain activity” during season 1.
There are currently five seeker airdrop tiers: Scout, Prospector, Vanguard, Luminary, and Sovereign. Sovereign sits at the top with a maximum reward of 750,000 SKR per eligible Seeker phone, while Scout, on the lower end, offers 5,000 SKR.
Furthermore, this tiered design links seeker phone rewards directly to user behavior, encouraging deeper interaction with applications and on-chain services. By aligning higher rewards with higher engagement, the program seeks to strengthen network effects around the Seeker device.
Seeker phone adoption and hardware evolution
Seeker is the second-generation crypto-integrated smartphone in Solana Mobile’s lineup and began shipping to more than 50 countries in August last year. It follows the earlier Saga handset, which struggled to attract a broad user base despite its pioneering integration of on-chain features.
However, Seeker has seen stronger demand, thanks largely to upgraded hardware and a more accessible $500 price point. When shipping commenced, Solana Mobile had already secured over 150,000 pre-orders, signaling much higher confidence in the new device.
Outlook for the SKR-driven mobile ecosystem
The upcoming distribution of more than 1.8 billion SKR, combined with immediate staking and a clear allocation roadmap, positions Seeker at the center of Solana Mobile’s strategy. If engagement levels hold, the token-based incentives and Guardian-led governance could help solidify the phone’s role as a core access point to the Solana ecosystem.
Solana Mobile confirms 1.8 billion SKR distribution
On Jan. 21, more than 100,000 Seeker users and 188 developers will receive a combined allocation of 1,819,755,000 SKR and 141,030,000 SKR, respectively. The figures were confirmed in a Wednesday post on X by Solana Mobile, underscoring the scale of the incentive program.
Moreover, an official allocation tracker is now live, allowing participants to verify their individual rewards directly from their integrated seed vault wallet. This tool is designed to make the distribution process transparent and easy to monitor for every eligible holder.
Role of SKR in the Solana Mobile ecosystem
SKR is the native token powering the broader Solana Mobile ecosystem and is closely associated with the second generation of smartphones launched last year. It is intended to function as both a utility and governance asset, giving users more direct influence over platform policies and future development.
However, the token goes beyond simple rewards. Seeker owners will be able to delegate their holdings to designated Guardians, who handle device verification, app curation, and enforcement of community rules. In turn, users gain access to exclusive in-app features and the potential to earn staking-based incentives.
SKR tokenomics and community allocations
According to SKR tokenomics overview documents released earlier this month, the token has a fixed total supply of 10 billion. Of that amount, 30% is reserved for community airdrops, ensuring long-term distribution to active ecosystem participants.
That said, two-thirds of the initial airdrop pool has been specifically earmarked for Solana Seeker users and developers. This structure highlights Solana Mobile’s focus on its hardware community as the primary engine of early adoption and on-chain usage.
In addition, another 2.7 billion SKR scheduled to unlock at the token generation event will be directed toward the community treasury, liquidity provisioning, and broader growth and partnership initiatives. These allocations are meant to support sustainable expansion rather than short-term speculation.
Staking at launch and Guardian participation
The solana mobile token will be stakeable immediately when the program begins on Jan. 21. Users will be able to lock tokens and earn skr staking rewards through Guardians directly from the secure Seed Vault Wallet on their devices.
“SKR can also be staked on the web via the SKR Staking web experience,” Solana Mobile stated. Moreover, this dual staking approach aims to serve both mobile-first users and those who prefer desktop or browser-based interfaces.
Seeker airdrop tiers and maximum rewards
The first skr airdrop season introduces a five-tier reward structure that determines how many tokens each Seeker owner can earn. Solana Mobile explained that the model was “determined by engagement with Seeker, the Solana dApp Store, and on-chain activity” during season 1.
There are currently five seeker airdrop tiers: Scout, Prospector, Vanguard, Luminary, and Sovereign. Sovereign sits at the top with a maximum reward of 750,000 SKR per eligible Seeker phone, while Scout, on the lower end, offers 5,000 SKR.
Furthermore, this tiered design links seeker phone rewards directly to user behavior, encouraging deeper interaction with applications and on-chain services. By aligning higher rewards with higher engagement, the program seeks to strengthen network effects around the Seeker device.
Seeker phone adoption and hardware evolution
Seeker is the second-generation crypto-integrated smartphone in Solana Mobile’s lineup and began shipping to more than 50 countries in August last year. It follows the earlier Saga handset, which struggled to attract a broad user base despite its pioneering integration of on-chain features.
However, Seeker has seen stronger demand, thanks largely to upgraded hardware and a more accessible $500 price point. When shipping commenced, Solana Mobile had already secured over 150,000 pre-orders, signaling much higher confidence in the new device.
Outlook for the SKR-driven mobile ecosystem
The upcoming distribution of more than 1.8 billion SKR, combined with immediate staking and a clear allocation roadmap, positions Seeker at the center of Solana Mobile’s strategy. If engagement levels hold, the token-based incentives and Guardian-led governance could help solidify the phone’s role as a core access point to the Solana ecosystem.
YZi Labs backs Genius Trading with multi-8-figure round as CZ signs on as advisor
A new funding round is propelling the growth of Genius Trading in the race to build institutional-grade, onchain trading infrastructure that can rival centralized exchanges.
YZi Labs invests multi-8-figure sum with CZ as advisor
YZi Labs, the family office of Binance co-founders Changpeng “CZ” Zhao and Yi He, has made a “multi-8-figure” investment in Genius Trading, with CZ also joining the startup as an advisor.
The investment, completed last month, comes from the entity that spun out of Binance Labs and signals a long-term bet on an onchain trading stack that can compete with the world’s largest exchanges. However, the parties have not disclosed a detailed valuation.
Genius is building a privacy-focused, decentralized trading platform that offers spot, perpetual futures, and copy trading through a self-custodial, cross-chain trading terminal. Moreover, the startup explicitly aims to position itself as an onchain alternative to Binance.
“If you were rebuilding Binance today, you would not do it as a centralized exchange 9you would build it onchain,” said Ryan Myher, co-founder and COO of Genius Trading. “Genius is our answer to what that looks like: one terminal, full custody, no compromises.”
Deal size, structure and token plans
Co-founder and CEO Armaan Kalsi said the “multi-8-figure” ticket from YZi Labs is well above $10 million. However, he declined to reveal the exact size or structure of the deal, including how much is equity or tokens, or whether there is a mix of both.
Kalsi also declined to comment on whether Genius plans to issue a native token, a common route for DeFi trading projects. That said, the scale of this latest round places the company in a different bracket from its earlier capital raises.
Before this investment, Genius had secured a total of $7 million in funding, including a $6 million round in 2024 and a $1 million extension. That round was led by CMCC, with participation from Balaji Srinivasan, Anthony Scaramucci, Flow Traders and other backers.
What Genius Trading is building
Genius Trading is positioning itself as a unified, self-custodial trading terminal that aggregates liquidity across more than 10 blockchains. Supported networks include BNB Chain, Solana, Ethereum, Hyperliquid, Base, Avalanche, and Sui.
Through this design, users can trade without manually bridging assets or switching between wallets while avoiding publicly signaling their strategies onchain. Moreover, the platform offers spot, perpetuals, and decentralized copy trading tools in a single interface intended to feel similar to a centralized exchange.
“We are building a privacy-specific trading suite that is still in beta,” Kalsi told The Block. “We are taking our time. Our bet is that the current degeneracy meta in crypto is a great way to acquire users (speculation), but that once they realize the power of the underlying technology, they will want to stay.”
According to Kalsi, once traders shift from pure speculation to building longer-term financial activity, privacy and self-custody will become non-negotiable features for any serious trading genius product.
Early usage and technical stack
Since its “soft” launch in October 2024, Genius says it has processed more than $60 million in trading volume. Usage so far is concentrated among onchain whales that manage millions of dollars in monthly activity, underscoring the institutional tilt of the product.
Behind the interface, the platform uses a custom multi-party computation (MPC) wallet, proprietary cross-chain routing logic, and direct integrations with decentralized exchanges. However, Kalsi said Genius has no plans to launch a dedicated blockchain and instead intends to integrate only with existing chains and DeFi protocols.
That said, the team is working to keep the user experience as close as possible to a centralized venue while retaining self-custody. This mirrors broader market demand for a self custodial trading platform that does not sacrifice execution quality.
Privacy layer and roadmap
A core pillar of the project is a privacy focused trading layer designed to shield large onchain strategies from surveillance. The system, currently in beta, enables users to split a single transaction into “hundreds of wallets” to reduce traceability while keeping all activity onchain.
Genius says the design avoids offchain components and does not rely on zero-knowledge systems that can introduce execution delays. Moreover, the company plans a privacy protocol public beta in the second quarter of 2026, opening the mechanism to a wider set of users.
The longer-term privacy push reflects the founders’ view of how onchain adoption will evolve. Kalsi described the current “terminal wars” as a fiercely competitive phase among trading platforms such as Axiom, GMGN, Photon, and Padre, which have been battling over customer acquisition costs and dense feature sets.
While speculative activity has helped drive overall crypto user growth, Kalsi believes the primary_keyword will need to double down on its privacy stack as traders shift to building lasting portfolios and more structured financial lives onchain.
Origins, team and hiring plans
Genius, built by Shuttle Labs, was founded in 2022 when the core team was still in college at Yale University, according to Kalsi. The project initially started as a block data legibility and explorer tool before evolving into a full-featured trading platform.
He noted that the same core team has continued building together since inception. Alongside Kalsi and Myher, the third co-founder is CTO Brihu Sundararaman, who leads the technical architecture and privacy roadmap.
The company is headquartered in New York City and operates with a globally distributed team of 11 people. However, Kalsi said the startup will hire cautiously, potentially adding only two to four additional employees over the near term.
So, Genius aims to combine a unified, institutional-grade terminal, deep cross-chain liquidity, and advanced privacy tooling to challenge centralized exchanges from the onchain side, with fresh capital from YZi Labs and CZ’s guidance accelerating that effort.
YZi Labs invests multi-8-figure sum with CZ as advisor
YZi Labs, the family office of Binance co-founders Changpeng “CZ” Zhao and Yi He, has made a “multi-8-figure” investment in Genius Trading, with CZ also joining the startup as an advisor.
The investment, completed last month, comes from the entity that spun out of Binance Labs and signals a long-term bet on an onchain trading stack that can compete with the world’s largest exchanges. However, the parties have not disclosed a detailed valuation.
Genius is building a privacy-focused, decentralized trading platform that offers spot, perpetual futures, and copy trading through a self-custodial, cross-chain trading terminal. Moreover, the startup explicitly aims to position itself as an onchain alternative to Binance.
“If you were rebuilding Binance today, you would not do it as a centralized exchange 9you would build it onchain,” said Ryan Myher, co-founder and COO of Genius Trading. “Genius is our answer to what that looks like: one terminal, full custody, no compromises.”
Deal size, structure and token plans
Co-founder and CEO Armaan Kalsi said the “multi-8-figure” ticket from YZi Labs is well above $10 million. However, he declined to reveal the exact size or structure of the deal, including how much is equity or tokens, or whether there is a mix of both.
Kalsi also declined to comment on whether Genius plans to issue a native token, a common route for DeFi trading projects. That said, the scale of this latest round places the company in a different bracket from its earlier capital raises.
Before this investment, Genius had secured a total of $7 million in funding, including a $6 million round in 2024 and a $1 million extension. That round was led by CMCC, with participation from Balaji Srinivasan, Anthony Scaramucci, Flow Traders and other backers.
What Genius Trading is building
Genius Trading is positioning itself as a unified, self-custodial trading terminal that aggregates liquidity across more than 10 blockchains. Supported networks include BNB Chain, Solana, Ethereum, Hyperliquid, Base, Avalanche, and Sui.
Through this design, users can trade without manually bridging assets or switching between wallets while avoiding publicly signaling their strategies onchain. Moreover, the platform offers spot, perpetuals, and decentralized copy trading tools in a single interface intended to feel similar to a centralized exchange.
“We are building a privacy-specific trading suite that is still in beta,” Kalsi told The Block. “We are taking our time. Our bet is that the current degeneracy meta in crypto is a great way to acquire users (speculation), but that once they realize the power of the underlying technology, they will want to stay.”
According to Kalsi, once traders shift from pure speculation to building longer-term financial activity, privacy and self-custody will become non-negotiable features for any serious trading genius product.
Early usage and technical stack
Since its “soft” launch in October 2024, Genius says it has processed more than $60 million in trading volume. Usage so far is concentrated among onchain whales that manage millions of dollars in monthly activity, underscoring the institutional tilt of the product.
Behind the interface, the platform uses a custom multi-party computation (MPC) wallet, proprietary cross-chain routing logic, and direct integrations with decentralized exchanges. However, Kalsi said Genius has no plans to launch a dedicated blockchain and instead intends to integrate only with existing chains and DeFi protocols.
That said, the team is working to keep the user experience as close as possible to a centralized venue while retaining self-custody. This mirrors broader market demand for a self custodial trading platform that does not sacrifice execution quality.
Privacy layer and roadmap
A core pillar of the project is a privacy focused trading layer designed to shield large onchain strategies from surveillance. The system, currently in beta, enables users to split a single transaction into “hundreds of wallets” to reduce traceability while keeping all activity onchain.
Genius says the design avoids offchain components and does not rely on zero-knowledge systems that can introduce execution delays. Moreover, the company plans a privacy protocol public beta in the second quarter of 2026, opening the mechanism to a wider set of users.
The longer-term privacy push reflects the founders’ view of how onchain adoption will evolve. Kalsi described the current “terminal wars” as a fiercely competitive phase among trading platforms such as Axiom, GMGN, Photon, and Padre, which have been battling over customer acquisition costs and dense feature sets.
While speculative activity has helped drive overall crypto user growth, Kalsi believes the primary_keyword will need to double down on its privacy stack as traders shift to building lasting portfolios and more structured financial lives onchain.
Origins, team and hiring plans
Genius, built by Shuttle Labs, was founded in 2022 when the core team was still in college at Yale University, according to Kalsi. The project initially started as a block data legibility and explorer tool before evolving into a full-featured trading platform.
He noted that the same core team has continued building together since inception. Alongside Kalsi and Myher, the third co-founder is CTO Brihu Sundararaman, who leads the technical architecture and privacy roadmap.
The company is headquartered in New York City and operates with a globally distributed team of 11 people. However, Kalsi said the startup will hire cautiously, potentially adding only two to four additional employees over the near term.
So, Genius aims to combine a unified, institutional-grade terminal, deep cross-chain liquidity, and advanced privacy tooling to challenge centralized exchanges from the onchain side, with fresh capital from YZi Labs and CZ’s guidance accelerating that effort.
Bernstein names Figure Technology top 2026 pick as blockchain lending growth accelerates
Wall Street is starting 2026 with a renewed focus on digital finance, as Figure Technology emerges in analyst research as a leading blockchain-driven growth story.
Bernstein backs Figure with top pick call and higher target
Wall Street broker Bernstein has highlighted Figure Technology (FIGR) as its top investment idea for 2026, pointing to the lender’s rapid expansion in blockchain-based credit markets. The call underscores growing conviction that tokenization and on-chain infrastructure could reshape how traditional financial products are issued and traded.
Moreover, the broker reiterated its “outperform” rating on the stock and issued a substantial price target increase, signaling confidence that the company’s fundamentals can support further upside. The report comes at a time when investors are reassessing fintech exposure amid tighter monetary conditions and heightened regulatory scrutiny on digital assets.
Tokenized marketplace and lending growth beat expectations
Bernstein said Figure’s tokenized marketplace volumes and lending activity are running well ahead of internal expectations, suggesting faster adoption of its blockchain-based funding model. The marketplace, which allows credit assets to be originated and traded on-chain, is becoming a central driver of the company’s growth profile.
However, the upside is not limited to loans alone. New loan categories and a rapidly scaling stablecoin yield product are expanding revenue optionality, according to the analysts. That said, the firm still sees significant room for Figure to deepen its presence in its core home equity lending franchise while layering on new credit verticals.
Modernizing legacy banking infrastructure on-chain
Bernstein’s bullish stance is rooted in Figure’s role in modernizing legacy banking ledgers by moving conventional balance sheet records onto public or permissioned blockchains. The analysts argue this migration could meaningfully reduce friction in loan issuance, servicing and secondary trading. It may also improve transparency for both regulators and investors.
“Figure upgrades legacy banking ledgers to the blockchain ledger,” analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote in a note on Wednesday, emphasizing that the business model “can evolve rapidly towards new lending categories.” Moreover, they contend that the company’s platform economics improve as more assets migrate on-chain, creating network effects around origination and distribution.
The team also noted that the business is evolving faster than initially projected. Activity is expanding beyond its original focus on home equity lines into a broader set of collateral types and loan structures. In the analysts’ view, this evolution supports their thesis that figure technology can become a key player in the emerging tokenized credit ecosystem.
Revenue forecasts sharply upgraded into 2027
Reflecting these trends, Bernstein now projects net revenue for Figure to reach about $945 million by 2027, up from an estimated $511 million in 2025. That revised forecast sits roughly 21% above the broker’s prior estimate, signaling a material upgrade to its growth outlook.
Furthermore, the analysts argue that the revenue trajectory is increasingly supported by diversified income streams, not just one product line. Marketplace fees, lending spreads and yield-related products together underpin the new forecasts, while potential new categories could add incremental upside over time.
Chhugani lifts target to $72 and keeps outperform rating
Lead analyst Gautam Chhugani reiterated his outperform rating reiterated on the stock and raised his target by 33% to $72 from $54. According to FactSet data, this level is now the second-highest among Wall Street analysts covering the name, underscoring the conviction behind the call.
Piper Sandler remains the top bull on the shares, maintaining a buy rating and a price target of $75, the data show. However, Bernstein’s revised assumptions about net revenue and marketplace growth put it firmly in the optimistic camp on the stock’s medium-term performance.
Trading performance since the 2025 Nasdaq listing
Figure listed on the Nasdaq in September 2025 at an initial public offering price of $25 per share, drawing investor interest as a pure-play on blockchain-based lending. Since the Figure Technology IPO, the stock has climbed significantly from that starting level, reflecting both business progress and positive sentiment toward on-chain financial infrastructure.
In the months following the debut, the shares have traded in a range of roughly $30 to $59. That volatility mirrors broader market swings in growth equities but also highlights persistent demand for exposure to its blockchain-linked lending model. Moreover, the trading pattern suggests investors are actively repricing the company’s long-term earnings potential as new data emerge.
On Wednesday, the stock was trading flat intraday after rising as much as 5% in early trading, as the market digested Bernstein’s updated outlook. That said, the muted immediate reaction may reflect an already strong run in the shares since listing, even as analysts argue there is more room to climb.
Outlook: tokenized credit and revenue diversification
Looking ahead, analysts see Figure well positioned to capitalize on growing institutional interest in tokenized credit assets and blockchain-native funding channels. The company’s expanding loan book, scalable technology stack and developing marketplace infrastructure could help it capture share from slower-moving incumbents.
Moreover, if net revenue tracks closer to Bernstein’s upgraded $945 million by 2027 forecast, investors may increasingly view the stock as a core way to play the convergence of traditional lending and digital asset rails. In that scenario, Figure’s combination of lending expertise and blockchain execution could prove a durable competitive edge.
In summary, Bernstein’s call frames Figure as a high-growth lender reshaping how credit is originated and traded, with tokenization, diversified products and a modernized ledger architecture at the center of its investment case.
Bernstein backs Figure with top pick call and higher target
Wall Street broker Bernstein has highlighted Figure Technology (FIGR) as its top investment idea for 2026, pointing to the lender’s rapid expansion in blockchain-based credit markets. The call underscores growing conviction that tokenization and on-chain infrastructure could reshape how traditional financial products are issued and traded.
Moreover, the broker reiterated its “outperform” rating on the stock and issued a substantial price target increase, signaling confidence that the company’s fundamentals can support further upside. The report comes at a time when investors are reassessing fintech exposure amid tighter monetary conditions and heightened regulatory scrutiny on digital assets.
Tokenized marketplace and lending growth beat expectations
Bernstein said Figure’s tokenized marketplace volumes and lending activity are running well ahead of internal expectations, suggesting faster adoption of its blockchain-based funding model. The marketplace, which allows credit assets to be originated and traded on-chain, is becoming a central driver of the company’s growth profile.
However, the upside is not limited to loans alone. New loan categories and a rapidly scaling stablecoin yield product are expanding revenue optionality, according to the analysts. That said, the firm still sees significant room for Figure to deepen its presence in its core home equity lending franchise while layering on new credit verticals.
Modernizing legacy banking infrastructure on-chain
Bernstein’s bullish stance is rooted in Figure’s role in modernizing legacy banking ledgers by moving conventional balance sheet records onto public or permissioned blockchains. The analysts argue this migration could meaningfully reduce friction in loan issuance, servicing and secondary trading. It may also improve transparency for both regulators and investors.
“Figure upgrades legacy banking ledgers to the blockchain ledger,” analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote in a note on Wednesday, emphasizing that the business model “can evolve rapidly towards new lending categories.” Moreover, they contend that the company’s platform economics improve as more assets migrate on-chain, creating network effects around origination and distribution.
The team also noted that the business is evolving faster than initially projected. Activity is expanding beyond its original focus on home equity lines into a broader set of collateral types and loan structures. In the analysts’ view, this evolution supports their thesis that figure technology can become a key player in the emerging tokenized credit ecosystem.
Revenue forecasts sharply upgraded into 2027
Reflecting these trends, Bernstein now projects net revenue for Figure to reach about $945 million by 2027, up from an estimated $511 million in 2025. That revised forecast sits roughly 21% above the broker’s prior estimate, signaling a material upgrade to its growth outlook.
Furthermore, the analysts argue that the revenue trajectory is increasingly supported by diversified income streams, not just one product line. Marketplace fees, lending spreads and yield-related products together underpin the new forecasts, while potential new categories could add incremental upside over time.
Chhugani lifts target to $72 and keeps outperform rating
Lead analyst Gautam Chhugani reiterated his outperform rating reiterated on the stock and raised his target by 33% to $72 from $54. According to FactSet data, this level is now the second-highest among Wall Street analysts covering the name, underscoring the conviction behind the call.
Piper Sandler remains the top bull on the shares, maintaining a buy rating and a price target of $75, the data show. However, Bernstein’s revised assumptions about net revenue and marketplace growth put it firmly in the optimistic camp on the stock’s medium-term performance.
Trading performance since the 2025 Nasdaq listing
Figure listed on the Nasdaq in September 2025 at an initial public offering price of $25 per share, drawing investor interest as a pure-play on blockchain-based lending. Since the Figure Technology IPO, the stock has climbed significantly from that starting level, reflecting both business progress and positive sentiment toward on-chain financial infrastructure.
In the months following the debut, the shares have traded in a range of roughly $30 to $59. That volatility mirrors broader market swings in growth equities but also highlights persistent demand for exposure to its blockchain-linked lending model. Moreover, the trading pattern suggests investors are actively repricing the company’s long-term earnings potential as new data emerge.
On Wednesday, the stock was trading flat intraday after rising as much as 5% in early trading, as the market digested Bernstein’s updated outlook. That said, the muted immediate reaction may reflect an already strong run in the shares since listing, even as analysts argue there is more room to climb.
Outlook: tokenized credit and revenue diversification
Looking ahead, analysts see Figure well positioned to capitalize on growing institutional interest in tokenized credit assets and blockchain-native funding channels. The company’s expanding loan book, scalable technology stack and developing marketplace infrastructure could help it capture share from slower-moving incumbents.
Moreover, if net revenue tracks closer to Bernstein’s upgraded $945 million by 2027 forecast, investors may increasingly view the stock as a core way to play the convergence of traditional lending and digital asset rails. In that scenario, Figure’s combination of lending expertise and blockchain execution could prove a durable competitive edge.
In summary, Bernstein’s call frames Figure as a high-growth lender reshaping how credit is originated and traded, with tokenization, diversified products and a modernized ledger architecture at the center of its investment case.
Bitnomial launches APT futures as first U.S.-regulated derivatives on Aptos
Institutional and retail traders in the U.S. now have a new regulated way to access the Aptos ecosystem through aptos futures listed on a CFTC-supervised venue.
First U.S.-regulated Aptos-linked futures go live
Bitnomial has introduced the first-ever U.S.-regulated futures contracts tied to Aptos (APT), creating a regulated market structure for institutional access to the Layer 1 blockchain. The contracts began trading on January 14 on Bitnomial Exchange, giving both institutional and retail traders a venue for price discovery and risk management tied to APT.
Moreover, the launch positions Bitnomial among a small group of venues offering physically connected digital asset futures under a U.S. regulatory framework. The firm aims to bridge traditional derivatives infrastructure with emerging blockchain networks such as Aptos without altering core compliance standards.
Contract design and margining framework
The new APT futures feature monthly expirations and are designed to be settled in either U.S. dollars or in APT, depending on the direction of the position. This dual-settlement structure is intended to give traders flexibility in how they manage exposure and settlement risk.
Traders can post margin in crypto or USD through Bitnomial Clearinghouse, LLC. However, access to the contracts is routed via Bitnomial Exchange Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) clearing members, aligning the product with established futures market workflows and compliance checks.
Michael Dunn, president of Bitnomial Exchange, said the launch addresses a critical gap in the U.S. derivatives landscape. He emphasized that a regulated futures market is often viewed as a prerequisite for spot crypto exchange-traded fund approvals under the Securities and Exchange Commission‘s generic listing standards, especially for new Layer 1 assets.
According to the company, with APT futures now live institutional participants can obtain institutional Aptos exposure using the same regulated infrastructure they already rely on for Bitcoin and Ether derivatives, including portfolio margining across multiple positions.
Institutional infrastructure meets Aptos
Aptos is a Layer 1 blockchain engineered to deliver sub-second finality and high transaction throughput. Built using the Move programming language and a parallel execution engine, the network has drawn increasing interest from institutions testing scalable on-chain applications and transaction-heavy use cases.
That said, institutional adoption typically depends on the availability of regulated derivatives rails. aptos futures listed on a U.S.-regulated venue are therefore seen as an important step toward integrating the blockchain more deeply into traditional trading strategies and risk frameworks.
Solomon Tesfaye, chief business officer at Aptos Labs, said U.S.-regulated derivatives infrastructure is essential for institutional adoption. Moreover, he noted that Bitnomial’s CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse deliver the compliance, custody and risk management framework demanded by sophisticated market participants seeking exposure to Aptos.
Expansion of Bitnomial’s Crypto Complex
The introduction of APT futures further broadens Bitnomial’s Crypto Complex, a suite that provides U.S. market participants with access to a wide range of digital asset derivatives. This expansion underscores the firm’s strategy of layering new blockchain assets onto an existing regulatory and operational stack.
Delivery-settled contracts listed on Bitnomial Exchange can be margined with digital assets, a structure the company argues enhances capital efficiency versus traditional cash-only margin regimes. However, the contracts still clear through Bitnomial’s regulated entities, preserving oversight and standardized risk controls.
This delivery-settled approach allows traders to manage exposure across multiple crypto derivatives products more efficiently within a single regulated venue. Moreover, it can support more advanced strategies, including basis trades and spread positions that link APT with other major tokens such as Bitcoin and Ether.
Retail access and future Aptos-linked products
APT futures are available for trading today for institutional clients. Retail participation is expected to follow in the coming weeks through Botanical, Bitnomial’s retail trading platform, which will extend regulated access to a broader U.S. audience once integration is complete.
Looking ahead, Bitnomial said it plans to expand its Aptos-linked lineup with perpetual futures and options. That said, any new products will also sit inside the same U.S.-regulated framework, further deepening what the firm describes as a growing aptos derivatives market for compliant APT exposure.
Bitnomial is headquartered in Chicago and operates a suite of CFTC-regulated exchange, clearinghouse and clearing brokerage entities. As Aptos and other Layer 1 networks continue to mature, the company expects demand for regulated access routes to keep rising.
In summary, Bitnomial’s launch of U.S.-regulated APT futures brings a new Layer 1 asset into the mainstream derivatives arena, aligning Aptos with existing institutional trading, margining and compliance practices while opening a path to broader participation over time.
First U.S.-regulated Aptos-linked futures go live
Bitnomial has introduced the first-ever U.S.-regulated futures contracts tied to Aptos (APT), creating a regulated market structure for institutional access to the Layer 1 blockchain. The contracts began trading on January 14 on Bitnomial Exchange, giving both institutional and retail traders a venue for price discovery and risk management tied to APT.
Moreover, the launch positions Bitnomial among a small group of venues offering physically connected digital asset futures under a U.S. regulatory framework. The firm aims to bridge traditional derivatives infrastructure with emerging blockchain networks such as Aptos without altering core compliance standards.
Contract design and margining framework
The new APT futures feature monthly expirations and are designed to be settled in either U.S. dollars or in APT, depending on the direction of the position. This dual-settlement structure is intended to give traders flexibility in how they manage exposure and settlement risk.
Traders can post margin in crypto or USD through Bitnomial Clearinghouse, LLC. However, access to the contracts is routed via Bitnomial Exchange Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) clearing members, aligning the product with established futures market workflows and compliance checks.
Michael Dunn, president of Bitnomial Exchange, said the launch addresses a critical gap in the U.S. derivatives landscape. He emphasized that a regulated futures market is often viewed as a prerequisite for spot crypto exchange-traded fund approvals under the Securities and Exchange Commission‘s generic listing standards, especially for new Layer 1 assets.
According to the company, with APT futures now live institutional participants can obtain institutional Aptos exposure using the same regulated infrastructure they already rely on for Bitcoin and Ether derivatives, including portfolio margining across multiple positions.
Institutional infrastructure meets Aptos
Aptos is a Layer 1 blockchain engineered to deliver sub-second finality and high transaction throughput. Built using the Move programming language and a parallel execution engine, the network has drawn increasing interest from institutions testing scalable on-chain applications and transaction-heavy use cases.
That said, institutional adoption typically depends on the availability of regulated derivatives rails. aptos futures listed on a U.S.-regulated venue are therefore seen as an important step toward integrating the blockchain more deeply into traditional trading strategies and risk frameworks.
Solomon Tesfaye, chief business officer at Aptos Labs, said U.S.-regulated derivatives infrastructure is essential for institutional adoption. Moreover, he noted that Bitnomial’s CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse deliver the compliance, custody and risk management framework demanded by sophisticated market participants seeking exposure to Aptos.
Expansion of Bitnomial’s Crypto Complex
The introduction of APT futures further broadens Bitnomial’s Crypto Complex, a suite that provides U.S. market participants with access to a wide range of digital asset derivatives. This expansion underscores the firm’s strategy of layering new blockchain assets onto an existing regulatory and operational stack.
Delivery-settled contracts listed on Bitnomial Exchange can be margined with digital assets, a structure the company argues enhances capital efficiency versus traditional cash-only margin regimes. However, the contracts still clear through Bitnomial’s regulated entities, preserving oversight and standardized risk controls.
This delivery-settled approach allows traders to manage exposure across multiple crypto derivatives products more efficiently within a single regulated venue. Moreover, it can support more advanced strategies, including basis trades and spread positions that link APT with other major tokens such as Bitcoin and Ether.
Retail access and future Aptos-linked products
APT futures are available for trading today for institutional clients. Retail participation is expected to follow in the coming weeks through Botanical, Bitnomial’s retail trading platform, which will extend regulated access to a broader U.S. audience once integration is complete.
Looking ahead, Bitnomial said it plans to expand its Aptos-linked lineup with perpetual futures and options. That said, any new products will also sit inside the same U.S.-regulated framework, further deepening what the firm describes as a growing aptos derivatives market for compliant APT exposure.
Bitnomial is headquartered in Chicago and operates a suite of CFTC-regulated exchange, clearinghouse and clearing brokerage entities. As Aptos and other Layer 1 networks continue to mature, the company expects demand for regulated access routes to keep rising.
In summary, Bitnomial’s launch of U.S.-regulated APT futures brings a new Layer 1 asset into the mainstream derivatives arena, aligning Aptos with existing institutional trading, margining and compliance practices while opening a path to broader participation over time.
Algorand Foundation re-establishes US base in Delaware amid shifting crypto policy
Amid a friendlier US policy climate for digital assets, the Algorand Foundation is shifting back to America with a renewed regulatory and political focus.
Algorand Foundation relocates headquarters to Delaware
The Algorand Foundation will move its primary headquarters to Delaware after several years operating from Singapore, the nonprofit supporting development of the Algorand blockchain announced on Wednesday. The decision marks a strategic return to the United States and underscores growing interest in US-driven growth for the protocol.
Moreover, the relocation follows months of internal review around US operations, particularly in areas where the network already sees adoption in real-world finance. The foundation said the move aligns with expanding work on payments infrastructure, asset tokenization and other blockchain-based financial services targeting both institutions and end users.
New board reflects deeper US regulatory and financial focus
A newly appointed board of directors brings together executives from the financial, crypto and US regulatory sectors, signaling a stronger push into American markets and policymaking circles. However, the organization stressed that this governance refresh is intended to reinforce, not overhaul, its long-term strategy.
The new board blends former policymakers with veteran builders and technologists from the crypto industry, and is structured to sharpen priorities around financial empowerment and infrastructure. That said, it will also focus on clarifying how Algorand positions itself within a rapidly evolving US regulatory landscape.
The board includes Abra founder and CEO Bill Barhydt as chair, alongside former MoneyGram CEO Alex Holmes, former acting FinCEN director Michael Mosier, Jito Labs CLO Rebecca Rettig, and Algorand Foundation CEO Staci Warden. Together, they will oversee expanding US operations and guide initiatives spanning global payments, tokenized assets and broader access to financial tools.
Trump administration policy shift and US crypto posture
Under President Donald Trump, US crypto policy has shifted notably from the more aggressive enforcement posture of previous years. The current approach is moving toward an industry-facing framework meant to support blockchain innovation and capital formation, while still aiming for market integrity.
Early executive actions, including a directive to develop a federal model for regulating digital assets, have signaled a pivot toward greater regulatory clarity. Moreover, that directive points to a preference for legislative engagement and defined oversight, rather than rulemaking by enforcement and fragmented guidance.
In this context, the algorand foundation sees an opening to deepen US regulatory engagement while continuing to build infrastructure for real-world financial applications. The leadership believes the United States can play a central role in the next phase of blockchain adoption if policy remains predictable.
US base to support payments, tokenization and real-world finance
Algorand’s blockchain already underpins projects targeting concrete financial use cases, including tokenized real estate, cross-border payments and on-chain lending. Establishing a stronger US base is expected to accelerate growth in these verticals, especially as American institutions increase experimentation with tokenized instruments.
According to CEO Staci Warden, “By reestablishing our presence in the United States, Algorand is helping ensure US leadership for the next generation of financial infrastructure.” However, the organization emphasized that its global footprint will remain important as adoption spreads across regions.
The return to the US and the appointment of a refreshed board are meant to strengthen, rather than fundamentally change, Algorand’s strategic path. Moreover, the foundation expects its Delaware base to make it easier to collaborate with regulators, financial institutions and policymakers on initiatives spanning global payments, asset tokenization and digital market infrastructure.
Ecosystem governance and developer engagement
Beyond the new board, the foundation plans to establish an algorand ecosystem advisory council that will give developers, projects and major network participants a structured voice in shaping strategic decisions. The council is expected to focus on protocol evolution, real-world integrations and community priorities.
That said, the organization is positioning the council as complementary to its formal board governance, not a replacement. The goal is to ensure that builders working directly on the network’s technology and financial products can surface needs and opportunities early, especially in key areas like global payments and programmable money.
Algorand itself is a public layer-1 blockchain designed for financial applications, including payments, asset issuance and identity solutions. Originating from academic research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, it is used by developers building tools for both retail users and institutions seeking reliable on-chain finance.
US leadership vision for next-generation infrastructure
The algorand foundation envisions its Delaware headquarters, new US-focused board and forthcoming council as core pillars for expanding American and global adoption. Moreover, by aligning more closely with regulators and financial firms, it aims to help shape standards for next-generation financial infrastructure.
In summary, the move back to the United States, under a changing federal stance toward digital assets, positions Algorand to play a larger role in payments, tokenized assets and broader blockchain-based financial services in the years ahead.
Algorand Foundation relocates headquarters to Delaware
The Algorand Foundation will move its primary headquarters to Delaware after several years operating from Singapore, the nonprofit supporting development of the Algorand blockchain announced on Wednesday. The decision marks a strategic return to the United States and underscores growing interest in US-driven growth for the protocol.
Moreover, the relocation follows months of internal review around US operations, particularly in areas where the network already sees adoption in real-world finance. The foundation said the move aligns with expanding work on payments infrastructure, asset tokenization and other blockchain-based financial services targeting both institutions and end users.
New board reflects deeper US regulatory and financial focus
A newly appointed board of directors brings together executives from the financial, crypto and US regulatory sectors, signaling a stronger push into American markets and policymaking circles. However, the organization stressed that this governance refresh is intended to reinforce, not overhaul, its long-term strategy.
The new board blends former policymakers with veteran builders and technologists from the crypto industry, and is structured to sharpen priorities around financial empowerment and infrastructure. That said, it will also focus on clarifying how Algorand positions itself within a rapidly evolving US regulatory landscape.
The board includes Abra founder and CEO Bill Barhydt as chair, alongside former MoneyGram CEO Alex Holmes, former acting FinCEN director Michael Mosier, Jito Labs CLO Rebecca Rettig, and Algorand Foundation CEO Staci Warden. Together, they will oversee expanding US operations and guide initiatives spanning global payments, tokenized assets and broader access to financial tools.
Trump administration policy shift and US crypto posture
Under President Donald Trump, US crypto policy has shifted notably from the more aggressive enforcement posture of previous years. The current approach is moving toward an industry-facing framework meant to support blockchain innovation and capital formation, while still aiming for market integrity.
Early executive actions, including a directive to develop a federal model for regulating digital assets, have signaled a pivot toward greater regulatory clarity. Moreover, that directive points to a preference for legislative engagement and defined oversight, rather than rulemaking by enforcement and fragmented guidance.
In this context, the algorand foundation sees an opening to deepen US regulatory engagement while continuing to build infrastructure for real-world financial applications. The leadership believes the United States can play a central role in the next phase of blockchain adoption if policy remains predictable.
US base to support payments, tokenization and real-world finance
Algorand’s blockchain already underpins projects targeting concrete financial use cases, including tokenized real estate, cross-border payments and on-chain lending. Establishing a stronger US base is expected to accelerate growth in these verticals, especially as American institutions increase experimentation with tokenized instruments.
According to CEO Staci Warden, “By reestablishing our presence in the United States, Algorand is helping ensure US leadership for the next generation of financial infrastructure.” However, the organization emphasized that its global footprint will remain important as adoption spreads across regions.
The return to the US and the appointment of a refreshed board are meant to strengthen, rather than fundamentally change, Algorand’s strategic path. Moreover, the foundation expects its Delaware base to make it easier to collaborate with regulators, financial institutions and policymakers on initiatives spanning global payments, asset tokenization and digital market infrastructure.
Ecosystem governance and developer engagement
Beyond the new board, the foundation plans to establish an algorand ecosystem advisory council that will give developers, projects and major network participants a structured voice in shaping strategic decisions. The council is expected to focus on protocol evolution, real-world integrations and community priorities.
That said, the organization is positioning the council as complementary to its formal board governance, not a replacement. The goal is to ensure that builders working directly on the network’s technology and financial products can surface needs and opportunities early, especially in key areas like global payments and programmable money.
Algorand itself is a public layer-1 blockchain designed for financial applications, including payments, asset issuance and identity solutions. Originating from academic research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, it is used by developers building tools for both retail users and institutions seeking reliable on-chain finance.
US leadership vision for next-generation infrastructure
The algorand foundation envisions its Delaware headquarters, new US-focused board and forthcoming council as core pillars for expanding American and global adoption. Moreover, by aligning more closely with regulators and financial firms, it aims to help shape standards for next-generation financial infrastructure.
In summary, the move back to the United States, under a changing federal stance toward digital assets, positions Algorand to play a larger role in payments, tokenized assets and broader blockchain-based financial services in the years ahead.
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