AsterBoy Crypto Desk

Today,
$BTC
finally broke out of its 2-month sideways price action.
One of the key reasons behind this rally was Core CPI cooling off, which will force the Fed to do more easing.
But what's coming next is going to be the real deal.
1) TARIFFS RULING
At 10am ET today, the Supreme Court will issue a ruling on Trump's tariff.
Trump said recently that if this ruling goes against tariffs, it'll be really bad for the US economy.

And the markets also expect that the Supreme Court will issue a ruling against tariffs.

But will this decision pump or dump crypto?
This is a bit confusing.
In April 2025, when Trump announced tariffs, the crypto market experienced a brutal crash.
On the basis of that, a ruling against tariffs should pump the markets.
Also, the Fed is still hawkish, as it expects tariffs to add substantial inflation.

If tariffs won't be there, the Fed will bring rates down really quickly, which is good for the crypto market.
But there's another side of the coin.
In the past 6 months, the stock market has been on an uptrend and is consistently hitting new highs.
Trump has repeatedly said that it's due to tariffs, and the market also believes this to some extent.
So if a ruling happens against tariffs, the stock market could experience a dump, and it'll bring the crypto market down too.
This exact uncertainty is what is going to cause insane volatility.
2) CLARITY ACT
Tomorrow at 10am ET, the US Senate will hold a markup session and vote on the Clarity Act.
If it passes, the bill will move forward to a full Senate vote.
The market expects 56% odds of the Clarity Act being signed into law this year.
For those who don't know, the Clarity Act is set to make these big changes:
- No FTX-type bank run, as exchanges will do regular verification
- Freedom for builders to talk about roadmaps, development plans, etc.
- Crypto exchanges will be fully regulated.
- Wash trading and price manipulation will drop 70%-80%.
- Most crypto tokens are not securities.
This means the market will probably experience neither an October 10th-type crash nor an FTX bank run.
Not only that, but a regulatory clarity will also enable large institutions to deploy their funds into assets beyond Bitcoin.
Along with this, the SEC could also approve Trump's executive order regarding pension funds' access to crypto.
So overall, this could be a catalyst for the next bull run.
The voting tomorrow is just a start, but if it goes through that, the odds will go up a lot.
Conclusion: 2026 has started as a good month for the crypto market.
BTC is up, and alts are moving strong, but what comes ahead could either stall this rally or make it go parabolic.

$BTC
$ETH
$BNB