Manzoor Ahmed 8166

グローバル暗号資産市場の時価総額：約3.23兆ドル～3.30兆ドル（情報源によってわずかな差異あり、24時間変動は約-1.4％）

Bitcoin once again demonstrated its extreme volatility when the price dropped nearly $1,800 within just 90 minutes, triggering the liquidation of approximately $80 million worth of long positions. This sudden move caught many leveraged traders off guard, as the market swept liquidity on the downside without giving much time to react. Such sharp drops are often driven by large players targeting over-leveraged positions, which leads to panic selling and a chain reaction of liquidations.
However, the move did not end there. Shortly after the dump, Bitcoin staged a strong rebound of around $1,400 in only 15 minutes, wiping out nearly $20 million worth of short positions. This rapid reversal clearly shows how the market is hunting leverage on both sides, trapping traders who are positioned too aggressively in either direction. These fast and violent swings are a classic example of leverage hunting in the crypto market.
This price action highlights an important lesson: excessive leverage in crypto trading can be extremely dangerous. Even relatively small price movements can result in significant losses or complete account wipeouts when leverage is high. Experienced traders tend to focus on strict risk management, lower leverage, and well-placed stop losses, especially during periods of heightened uncertainty.
Overall, the recent Bitcoin movement suggests that while the broader market structure may still be strong, short-term price action remains highly aggressive and unpredictable. Emotional trading in such conditions can be costly, whereas disciplined and patient traders may find opportunities within this volatility.

$Cardano (ADA) continues to trade within an extended corrective phase, one that has lasted longer than many market participants initially anticipated. This prolonged correction suggests that buyers have not yet fully committed, and the market is still in a phase of consolidation rather than expansion. Such behavior is typical of mature markets where price needs additional time to build a strong foundation before the next directional move.

Market Structure: A Complex Double Correction

From a structural standpoint, ADA appears to be forming a complex double corrective pattern. In Elliott Wave terms, this structure consists of two corrective formations linked together by an X-wave, a common feature during extended consolidations.

The first correction completed earlier, but instead of transitioning into a strong impulsive rally, price action moved into a second corrective phase. This second correction currently shows characteristics of a triangle formation, a pattern that often signals market indecision while storing energy for a larger breakout.

Current Position: Wave E of the Triangle

At present, Cardano seems to be trading within Wave E of this triangle. Wave E is typically the final leg of a triangular correction and often marks the exhaustion of selling pressure. Once Wave E completes, the overall double correction structure is expected to end.

If this scenario plays out as anticipated, ADA could be positioned for a bullish continuation move, driven by renewed demand and improving market sentiment.

Entry Strategy and Risk Management

Given the corrective nature of the market, aggressive entries are not advisable. Instead, a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) approach within predefined entry zones offers a more controlled and disciplined way to participate.

Using multiple entries helps:

Reduce emotional decision-making
Improve average entry price
Manage volatility during ongoing corrections

Trade Management Guidelines

Risk management remains a critical component of this approach:

Target 1: Secure partial profits to lock in gains
After Target 1: Move stop loss to breakeven to protect capital
This allows traders to stay in the position while minimizing downside risk

Invalidation Criteria

This analysis remains valid only as long as market structure holds.

❌ Invalidation Rule:

A daily candle close below the defined invalidation level would negate this outlook and signal the need for reassessment. In such a case, protecting capital should take priority over maintaining bias.

Final Thoughts

This Cardano outlook is grounded in price structure, Elliott Wave theory, and sound risk management principles, not speculation. Markets often reward patience, discipline, and consistency rather than impulsive decision-making.