CryptoQuant Quicktake

Bitcoin hit a new all-time high in 2026 of approximately $97,900 on January 15th, with the market anticipating a breakout to the $100,000 level. However, the next move depends on a crucial trigger.

SCENARIO FORECAST

◾ Bullish Scenario (Rally to $100k+)

→ This will occur when the Coinbase Premium Index turns consistently positive, signaling that major US institutional players have finally joined the uptrend and are competing to buy.

◾ Consolidation Scenario (Most Likely in the Short Term)

→ As long as the Premium Index remains negative/neutral, the market should continue trading in a range (e.g., $90k - $100k), absorbing profit distribution and strengthening the base for a future rally. This is a healthy scenario.

◾ Risk Scenario (Deep Correction)

→ This would be triggered by an external macro shock that forces massive institutional selling, deepening the negative Coinbase Premium Index and testing lower support levels.

CONCLUSION

The bulls have built the fortress and are targeting $100k. Now, the market must keep its eyes on the Coinbase Premium Index, awaiting the signal from the institutional generals to march.

Written by GugaOnChain

This chart tracks STH profit and loss to exchanges. After weeks of selling mostly at a loss (purple), the last 24 hours printed the biggest profit spike in this whole range (green) as the price grinds higher.

Takeaway: late buyers finally got liquidity and are selling into it. Big STH profit spikes tend to show up near local trend exhaustion, not at the start of a clean leg higher.

Written by IT Tech

I'm not saying it will 100% happen, but based on my experience, it's probable.

So what can we look at?

There are many indicators that can show you the probable destination, but today I'm focusing on the Bitcoin Trader On-Chain Realized Price Bands from Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant.

📊 My understanding is that there's a possibility for us to touch the $93.8K area again, which is the Trader Realized Price at the moment. For a good and healthy market environment, Bitcoin has to hold this level for us to find new highs again.

That said, it's totally healthy and nothing out of the normal if we have this retest, but it may not happen as well.

As we all know, volatility is an important factor for Bitcoin and anything can happen. What we do is work with possibilities of where price can go.

⚠️ This is a medium to long-term indicator and it would be really good for price action if that actually happens, in my honest opinion.

Of course we have the $82.6K level below it, but I believe the worst is already past and we've already accumulated enough, allegedly, in that $80K zone.

💬 If we go down and hold here, it's a beautiful setup. Healthy consolidation before the next move up. Will the market give us that clean retest?

Bearish short-term but super bullish for the long-term.

Written by RugaResearch

📰 Daily Market Update:

Blockchain fee revenue just gave us a major signal.

On Jan 12, Binance Smart Chain (BSC) recorded its highest daily revenue

📊 Chart: Daily Blockchain Total Revenue by Chain — All Protocols

Indicator:

Daily total blockchain revenue across all networks and protocols.

What revenue means:

This metric represents the fees paid by users to use blockchain networks, including transfers, swaps, and DeFi interactions. Rising fees usually reflect higher real usage, not speculation alone.

🔬 Key Observations

📈 The chart highlights a sharp spike in daily revenue on the Binance transfer network on January 12.

📈 Daily revenue reached $2.68 million, surpassing the previous local high recorded on October 23, which stood at $2.63 million.

📈 This marked the highest daily revenue level in nearly three months, signaling a sudden jump in network usage.

Immediately after this spike, Bitcoin price reacted strongly.

🚀 On January 13 and 14, BTC price surged from around $91,000 to above $97,000, recording gains of roughly +7% in just two days.

🚀 This sequence suggests that on-chain activity accelerated first, followed by price expansion shortly after.

🧠 Final Thoughts

Spikes in blockchain revenue are often overlooked, but they are one of the cleanest signals of real demand.

Unlike volume or open interest, fees require users to actually spend money to interact with the network.

The current data points to:

* A sudden increase in transaction and trading activity

* Higher usage of DeFi and transfer protocols

* Strong participation across the Binance ecosystem

This type of behavior is commonly seen when capital starts moving aggressively before price reacts.

Written by Amr Taha

📰 Daily Market Update:

Bitcoin just crossed $97K, and retail traders on Binance are jumping in hard.

But behind the scenes, a massive $3B BTC outflow from Binance suggests whales might be quietly stepping back.

📊 [BTC] Binance Retail Traders Daily Buy/Sell Amount

This indicator provides an advanced look into short-term retail investor behavior on Bitcoin.

It helps track whether traders are buying or selling at instant profit or loss, which often reflects emotional market decisions rather than long-term positioning.

🔬 Key Observations:

📈 The chart highlights a clear surge in daily positive buy volume.

📈 On January 14, retail traders bought more than 8,300 BTC after Bitcoin successfully broke above the $97,000 level.

⏲️ This level of aggressive buying has now been recorded twice within a single week, which is not very common.

⏲️ Historically, such spikes in retail buying usually appear during periods of strong bullish momentum or late-stage trend acceleration.

📊 [Binance] Multi-Asset Netflow Cumulative – $Value

This chart tracks the cumulative netflow value (USD) of BTC, ETH, USDT, and USDC moving in and out of Binance.

🔬 Key Observations:

📉 Bitcoin cumulative netflow on Binance reached nearly -$3 billion, exactly as BTC price pushed above $96,000.

📉 Net outflows expanded sharply from -$1 billion to -$3 billion within just 15 days.

📉 On January 14 alone, more than $700 million worth of BTC left Binance.

📉 These outflows strongly align with the increased retail buying activity seen in the previous chart.

⏲️ Historically, when Bitcoin moves off exchanges at this rate, it tends to indicate accumulation rather than short-term speculation.

🧠 Market Interpretation

The combination of:

📈 Rising retail buying pressure

📉 And strong BTC outflows from Binance

Creates a mixed but powerful market signal.

Retail traders appear to be entering aggressively, while larger holders may be moving coins off exchanges, possibly for longer-term holding or cold storage.

Written by Amr Taha

Data from the XRP Ledger network, which tracks whale flows to the Binance platform, shows a sharp decline in transfer activity over the past few days. The Whale Transfer Flow (30DMA) indicator previously fell to 48 million XRP, before rebounding slightly to 56.1 million XRP, with both readings representing the lowest levels recorded since 2021.This indicator represents the average volume of large transfers from major wallets to exchanges and is typically used to gauge whales’ selling intent. Historically, a surge in these flows indicates that large investors are preparing to liquidate a portion of their holdings, thereby increasing selling pressure on the price. Conversely, a sharp decline to historically low levels reflects a lack of appetite among whales to sell at present.

What is particularly noteworthy about this reading is that it comes at a time when the XRP price is trading at relatively stable levels, averaging around $2.15 during the same period. This reinforces the hypothesis that large investors prefer to hold the asset rather than deploy it onto exchanges. Such behavior is often observed during phases of silent accumulation or ahead of more substantial price movements.

Looking back to 2021, the last time inflows reached similarly low levels was during periods that preceded strong upward trends, when exchange supply was constrained while demand gradually increased. The current decline in whale inflows reduces the amount of XRP available for sale and helps alleviate short-term selling pressure.

Written by Arab Chain

For now, short term holders (STHs) remain highly sensitive to market fluctuations, even if the current move can be classified as a technical rebound.

Some appear to be taking advantage of this positive price action to already realize profits.

As price approaches their realized price, currently around $102,000, their behavior seems to be increasingly focused on capital preservation.

On January 6, as BTC reached $94,000, a price level that had not been revisited since mid November, STHs sent more than 30,000 BTC in profit to exchanges.

This behavior was even more pronounced yesterday, with over 40,000 BTC in profits sent to exchanges as BTC broke above $97,000.

STHs remain clearly impacted by the recent correction, and it seems that more upside and stronger confirmation will be needed to rebuild confidence and generate enough unrealized profits to encourage them to hold rather than sell.

Written by Darkfost

There is a recurring pattern observed on the chart. When the Leverage Ratio rises rapidly above the price, excessively leveraged long positions start to accumulate in the market. This creates favorable conditions for liquidity hunts.

First, a sharp but short lived price drop occurs. This is then followed by a strong upward price reaction. This cycle can be clearly seen on the chart during February, April, September, and November 2025. Therefore, it is understood that these declines are mainly for leverage cleansing purposes.

Especially in April 2025, leverage increases, the price drops, leverage decreases, and then the price rises strongly.

In October 2025, a sharp leverage spike and a sudden dump are observed, followed by trend continuation.

Based on these observations, it can be said that rising leverage is not the cause of price declines, but rather a trigger for them.

The current situation is very important. The Leverage Ratio is around 0.60, which is historically a very high range. The price is trading below the Leverage Ratio. In the past, this combination has produced a short-term wick followed by a new upward impulse. Currently, leverage is not decreasing despite price increases. This indicates that there is still a strong willingness in the market to hold positions.

In light of these data, we can say that the probability of an upward move in the market is high.

However, a short term liquidation-driven cleanup may occur beforehand.

Historically, every decline that occurred when leverage was at these levels resulted in a 10–25% price increase. If the same scenario plays out again, the price may show sharp and rapid upward movements.

Written by PelinayPA

IBCI (Index Bitcoin Cycle Indicators) recently returned to the Accumulation region, a level historically associated with favorable buying zones for Bitcoin. This movement occurs after the asset recorded new historical highs, followed by a significant price correction and a compression of the on-chain indicators that make up the index.

In previous cycles, this behavior has been linked to redistribution phases, in which short-term investors realize losses while long-term investors absorb supply. Despite the index's decline, Bitcoin still maintains, so far, a bullish macro structure, remaining above the key support of the bullish structure.

However, one historical factor requires caution. In the previous cycle, after peaking at around US$69,000, the IBCI also returned to the accumulation region while the price remained above US$30,000, initially suggesting a continuation of the bull market. Subsequently, the loss of this support confirmed the start of the bear market, with the IBCI advancing to 0%, the deepest point in the accumulation range.

In this context, the future behavior of the IBCI in relation to the 50% range becomes decisive. This region acts as a true trend divider. If the IBCI advances toward 50% and encounters resistance, being rejected, the probability that the current movement represents a transition to a bear market increases significantly, reinforcing the pattern observed in the previous cycle. On the other hand, if the indicator manages to overcome and sustain itself above 50%, the scenario favors the interpretation that the correction was just another corrective movement within a continuing bull market.

Therefore, the IBCI once again signals a zone historically associated with accumulation, but confirmation of Bitcoin's next major move will depend on the index's reaction in the 50% range, which will determine whether the market is heading for a new bullish phase or the consolidation of a new bearish cycle.

Written by G a a h

[Market Environment]

Bitcoin has gained new momentum during the first weeks of 2026, carrying BTCUSD to $97K. The sentiment remains optimistic, supported by institutional and whale-level buying, while retail stays cautious, as a contrast.

[On-Chain Data: Escalating Stablecoin Growth for 2026]

While cryptocurrencies search for a direction, stablecoins are set for a steady growth in 2026, as the amount of active stablecoin addresses has grown by 300% on a year-on-year basis. In January 2025, there were 150,000 active stablecoin-related addresses, compared to this month’s 600,000 addresses.

[Why Are Stablecoin-Related Active Addresses Growing?]

Active stablecoin address growth is closely related to the U.S. dollar (USD) being the most wanted (or dominant) global currency. The vast majority of stablecoins are pegged 1:1 to the USD. Their rapid expansion reflects and reinforces worldwide demand for dollar-based assets and access to the dollar, even in regions with limited traditional banking or unstable local currencies.

Growth drivers include U.S. regulatory clarity (GENIUS Act), institutional/fintech integration (Stripe, PayPal's PYUSD, Revolut) emerging-market use for inflation hedging/remittances, and RWA/tokenized asset settlement.

[Binance Stablecoin Reserves at $45 Billion]

Binance’s ERC-20 stablecoin reserves have been uplifted from summer 2025’s $33 billion to the current level of $48B, rising by 45%, and indicating a significant amount of sidelined liquidity, ready for deployment. This record amount of unused capital will act as a catalyst for potential altcoin rallies in Q1 of 2026.

[What’s Ahead?]

Stablecoins have been decoupling from broader crypto volatility and growing through utility, not hype. As this trend continues, stablecoins could represent one of the clearest secular growth stories in fintech heading deeper into 2026.

Written by oinonen_t

• Over the past six years, the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has reached levels of 20 or lower only 7 times. We are currently going through the seventh.

Written by _OnChain

Data from Binance indicates that since the beginning of 2026, whale transfers of Bitcoin to the platform have totaled approximately 15,800 BTC, a level significantly lower than that of December, when whale transfers reached around 37,133 BTC. This means that whale transfers since the beginning of 2026 represent only about 42.5% of the total whale transfers recorded in December.

When comparing whale transfers to the total Bitcoin transferred to Binance since the beginning of 2026, which amounted to approximately 75,800 BTC, whales accounted for roughly 20.85% of total inflows to the platform during this period. This percentage is historically moderate, indicating that the majority of transfers originated from relatively smaller investors rather than large wallets. Notably, daily whale transfers did not exceed 2,200 BTC, with no significant deposit spikes observed.

From an analytical perspective, one factor contributing to the continued moderation in whale activity is that Bitcoin prices have been trading around $90,000 since the beginning of 2026, with the price rising to approximately $96,000 in recent days. This price behavior suggests that whale transfers could increase during the second half of January if the upward momentum continues.

these figures indicate that whales have become less inclined to deposit Bitcoin on Binance since the beginning of 2026. This behavior may reflect greater confidence in current price levels or anticipation of future price appreciation, rather than a large-scale liquidation phase similar to that observed at the end of last year.

Written by Arab Chain

Bitcoin has confirmed its strength after breaking through the $94,200 resistance level, surging to the $97,500 zone. This bullish movement is not occurring in a speculative vacuum but is instead supported by key on-chain metrics.

The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) indicator offers a direct reading of long-term holders’ behavior. This metric calculates the number of days bitcoins remained inactive before being moved, weighted by the amount of BTC transferred. A low value indicates that younger coins are being moved, while a high value means older coins (long holding periods) are being spent.

Currently, the VDD stands at approximately 0.53 so far in January 2026—a historically low level. This suggests that the bitcoins being transferred on the network are relatively young, implying that older coins remain untouched.

In practical terms, this means long-term holders are not selling as the price rises. This behavior strengthens the quality of the bullish movement, as the price increase is not accompanied by distribution from the market’s most experienced capital.

Historically, when Bitcoin’s price rises while VDD remains low, the market tends to be in a healthy expansion phase, where demand absorbs the available supply without generating structural selling pressure.

In this context, the breakout above resistance and the continued upward momentum are firmly supported by the inactivity of long-term holders, reinforcing the idea that the current move is driven by real market strength rather than a fragile rebound fueled by short-term speculation.

This scenario will remain intact as long as the VDD stays low. A sustained increase in the indicator would signal distribution from long-term holders.

Written by Carmelo Alemán, Verified On-Chain Analyst at CryptoQuant

👉 Connect with me:

♦️ X: @oro_crypto

♦️ YouTube: OroCryptoCanal

♦️ Email: carmeloaleman@orocrypto.es

For collaborations, questions, or feedback—feel free to reach out!

Written by Carmelo_Alemán

This chart shows UTXOs spent by OG holders, smoothed using a 90 day moving average to reduce noise.

Here, OGs are defined as holders whose coins have been dormant for more than 5 years. I initially used a 7 year threshold, but Bitcoin’s relatively young age makes 5 years a more reliable benchmark when comparing cycles.

For those less familiar, UTXOs are the mechanism that ensures a BTC can only be spent once. Each transaction records the date, address, amount, and other valuable pieces of information.

OGs have been extremely active during this cycle.

The amount of UTXOs they spent largely exceeded what we saw during the previous cycle.

It’s also worth noting that this cycle offered them a perfect window to sell, fueled by the arrival of major institutional players and even government buyers entering the market.

As the cycle progresses, OG selling during local tops has been steadily declining.

The last STXO peak reached a 90 day average of around 2,300 BTC.

Since then, this average has dropped significantly and now fluctuates around 1,000 BTC.

This suggests that OGs have also slowed down their selling. Their selling pressure, which can sometimes be massive, has clearly decreased, and the prevailing trend now seems to lean more toward holding rather than distribution.

Written by Darkfost

The Bitcoin price increase observed on January 14–15 is best interpreted as a rebound within an existing range following a corrective phase, rather than the start of a new structural uptrend. Over the prior two months, Bitcoin had traded in high-level consolidation, with selling pressure near the upper range and demand emerging on pullbacks. Although prices weakened briefly in early January, there was no clear evidence of large-scale long-term holder distribution or a structural deterioration in supply-demand conditions.

The dominant explanation for this move is that spot demand and leverage unwinding occurred simultaneously under a temporarily stabilized external environment. On January 13, U.S. CPI data came in broadly in line with market expectations, easing concerns about renewed inflation acceleration and further rapid monetary tightening. This reduced macro-driven downside pressure and allowed internal market dynamics to play a larger role in price formation.

In parallel, progress reported in the U.S. Congress on digital asset market structure legislation, commonly referred to as the CLARITY Act, contributed to a stabilization in market sentiment by reducing regulatory uncertainty, even though it was not a direct short-term price catalyst.

Within this context, inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs provided the initial upward impulse. As prices approached the upper end of the range, short liquidations in the derivatives market accelerated the move through forced buybacks. The recovery in the Coinbase Premium Gap suggests that U.S.-based spot demand strengthened during this period.

At present, this price action is best viewed as a demand-driven rebound within a range. If spot demand weakens again, this interpretation would need to be reassessed.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

The Bitcoin market presents a transition scenario. While the long-term structure remains solid, with active accumulation and strong holders still in profit, the short term is in a bullish pullback, advancing into a correction risk zone, with the RSI marking 69.08. Derivatives have been signaling a bullish environment, but high leverage increases the risk of liquidations. Overall, it is a market in consolidation, testing investor conviction amid an impressive rally that now faces the immediate obstacle of resistance at $100K. The suggestion is that the uptrend may resume after a 3-month pause, a period during which BTC endured a 36% correction from its ATH on October 6th.

MARKET OVERVIEW

◾ Price → $97,224K (+4.39% 24h; +6.21% 7d), as of publication.

◾ Derivatives → Growing leverage; sellers dominating; risk of correction.

◾ Sentiment → ETFs with an inflow of $753.80M; the Bitcoin Sentiment Index (BSI) shows optimism with signs of confidence.

◾ On-chain (short term) → Whales distributing (-56.6K BTC); accumulators on the rise (379.8K BTC in the last 30 days).

◾ On-chain (long term) → Reserves declining (2.745M BTC); miners with low selling pressure (MPI: -0.15).

CONCLUSION

In summary, Bitcoin is navigating a critical phase of equilibrium. The robustness of the long-term fundamentals, supported by accumulation and convicted holders, serves as a counterbalance to the immediate selling pressure and the risk from derivatives. For the main uptrend to reassert itself, the asset must overcome the key resistance in the $100K region and demonstrate that the 36% correction has indeed been overcome and is not the start of a deeper reversal.

Written by GugaOnChain

Analyzing Spot Taker CVD (90D), Futures Taker CVD (90D), and Open Interest across all exchanges provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s current market structure.

Spot Taker CVD has recently shifted from a prolonged sell-dominant phase into neutral and early buy-dominant territory. This transition suggests that real spot demand is gradually returning, indicating accumulation rather than panic-driven selling.

On the derivatives side, Futures Taker CVD shows that aggressive sell pressure has significantly weakened. While strong long aggression has not yet emerged, the reduction in taker-driven selling points to short-side exhaustion and stabilization rather than active distribution.

Meanwhile, Open Interest experienced a sharp reset following its peak, reflecting forced position closures and leverage cleanup. The recent recovery in Open Interest is measured and controlled, occurring alongside price stability rather than excessive leverage buildup.

🔍 Combined Interpretation

When viewed together, these three metrics indicate that:

Spot buyers are stepping back in

Derivatives markets are no longer aggressively short

Leverage has been flushed and is rebuilding cautiously

This combination is typically observed during post-distribution consolidation phases, where the market transitions from correction to structural recovery.

🎯 Market Bias

From an on-chain perspective, the current setup favors stability with a mild upside bias, rather than conditions associated with cycle tops or overheated leverage.

Bias: Neutral → Slightly Bullish

Written by KriptoCenneti

The Bitcoin Log Cycle Z-Score chart on Binance shows Bitcoin entering a sensitive phase of its price cycle, with the indicator falling into negative territory around -0.47 as the price trades near $95,000 This behavior reflects the market’s transition from the overpriced conditions that prevailed in mid-2025 to a more realistic repricing phase, driven by declining momentum and reduced risk appetite.

The Log Cycle Z-Score measures the price’s deviation from its long-term logarithmic average, making it an effective tool for identifying cyclical peaks and troughs. Historically, high positive values represent overbought zones and potential market tops, while negative values indicate periods of pressure, consolidation, or even accumulation. The current negative reading does not necessarily signal the end of the broader uptrend; rather, it suggests the market is undergoing a healthy correction within a larger bullish cycle.

It is important to note that despite the price decline from highs above $120,000, Bitcoin remains significantly above the averages of previous cycles, indicating strong long-term structural demand. At the same time, the sharp decline in the indicator reflects a narrowing gap between price and fair value, which often helps reduce selling pressure and restore balance between buyers and sellers.

When the Log Z-Score moves into negative territory without a sharp price collapse, the market often enters a phase of consolidation or accumulation before the trend resumes. This behavior aligns with historical post-cycle-peak dynamics, where liquidity gradually shifts from short-term speculation toward long-term holding and investment.

Written by Arab Chain

After two difficult months for the crypto market and Bitcoin, with November and December marked by persistent selling pressure, January is starting to show more constructive signs.

Toward the end of the year, the overall environment was clearly unfavorable. Net inflows to exchanges largely dominated, reflecting an increased willingness to sell.


On Binance in particular, average monthly netflows peaked at around +1,500 BTC in November, followed by +750 BTC in December, confirming a clear distribution phase.

January, however, appears to be shaping up differently.


While some days still show significant net inflows, the broader dynamic seems to be shifting.

For instance, January 7 saw roughly +1,200 BTC in net inflows, and January 9 nearly +1,800 BTC.

However, these moves remain isolated and are more than offset by days of heavy outflows.

On January 5, more than 4,500 BTC in net outflows were recorded on Binance. This was already a very large figure, but it was surpassed again on January 13, with over 5,200 BTC in net outflows.

This shift in flow dynamics suggests a change in investor behavior.


When BTC leaves a major centralized exchange like Binance, it typically indicates transfers to cold storage, long term wallets, or other self custodial solutions.

This is often an early signal of renewed long term conviction, or at the very least, a reduction in immediate selling pressure.

Of course, it is still too early to call this a well established structural trend.


A few more weeks of data will be needed to confirm whether these outflows are sustainable or simply reflect a temporary rebalancing after year end excesses.

That said, even with this necessary caution, the start of January is clearly encouraging.

Written by Darkfost

Historically, sustained declines in Binance exchange reserves have coincided with the formation of upward price trends in Bitcoin. Reserve outflows reduce readily available supply on exchanges, weakening selling pressure and often signaling the early stages of medium to long term bullish cycles.

A dip to peak analysis of prior reserve drawdown periods highlights a consistent historical pattern. In early 2019, Bitcoin appreciated from $6,500 to $13,800, delivering a 112.3% gain. Following the March 2020 Covid driven market shock, reserves again fell below price levels, after which Bitcoin advanced from $7,300 to $10,500, a 43.8% increase. The most significant reserve contraction occurred during late 2020 to early 2021, preceding a historic rally from $9,000 to $64,000, representing a 611% gain. More recently, during the 2024–2025 ETF driven cycle, Bitcoin rose from approximately $78,000 to $127,000, achieving a 62.8% increase.

Across all observed cycles, whenever Binance exchange reserves declined below prevailing price levels, Bitcoin generated upside returns ranging between 40% and 600%.

Currently, Binance exchange reserves stand near 649K BTC, while Bitcoin trades around $95,000. Reserves remain structurally below price levels and continue to trend downward. From a historical and market-structure perspective, this suggests that BTC is not being positioned on exchanges for distribution. Instead, current reserve dynamics support the view that Bitcoin’s upward trend remains intact, with further upside potential over the medium to long term.

Written by PelinayPA