COIN STACK

Bitcoin’s current price action looks very similar to what we saw in the previous cycle. In Q4 2024, BTC pushed higher and formed its first all-time high, but the move was choppy. That choppiness later led to a mid-cycle bear market. The same thing happened in 2021 — Bitcoin made an initial all-time high, moved sideways with volatility, and then entered a mid-cycle correction. In both cycles, during the pullback phase, Bitcoin came down to retest its 54-week moving average, which acted as an important support level. This repeating pattern suggests that the market may be following a familiar cycle once again.
I don’t think we’re going to see a massive 60–70% crash like the one in 2022 during this cycle. That’s an important point to understand. Bitcoin moves in four-year cycles, even though many people say these cycles are fake or no longer exist. In reality, the pattern has repeated multiple times. What usually happens is not a straight crash, but phases of expansion, consolidation, and mid-cycle corrections before the next major move. Understanding this helps avoid panic and sets more realistic expectations for the current market.
Bitcoin’s price cycles have followed a very consistent pattern since the early days — from the Genesis cycle to 2017, 2021, and now the 2025 cycle. Historically, the cycle top has always formed in Q4 after the halving. Even more interesting, the time it takes to move from the cycle bottom to the cycle top has been almost identical every time, around 1,065 days. This repetition supports the idea that four-year cycles are real, driven by Bitcoin halvings, macro liquidity, election cycles, and broader business cycles. While some argue the cycle may be stretching toward five years, markets still tend to move with liquidity most of the time, which keeps these long-term patterns relevant.
Bitcoin and the S&P 500 often move in the same direction because both are risk assets. The S&P mainly follows changes in the M2 money supply (indicator), and Bitcoin tends to follow that same liquidity flow. When more money is printed, each unit of currency becomes less valuable, which leads to inflation. As a result, people move their capital into assets like stocks, commodities, real estate, and Bitcoin. It’s not that everything is “pumping” — it’s the value of the dollar that’s slowly falling, while other assets act as a hedge against inflation.
The most important factor in this cycle is the business cycle, which can be measured using ISM and PMI data. These indicators track manufacturing activity, liquidity, and economic expansion. When liquidity is high and interest rates are low, companies borrow more, invest in factories, hire workers, and produce more goods. Consumers also have more money to spend, which expands the economy and pushes GDP higher. Historically, whenever the economy has expanded, assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum have performed well.
This cycle, however, liquidity has been tight. Bitcoin has gone up, but compared to previous cycles, the move has been much smaller. Altcoins and Ethereum have mostly remained stagnant because there hasn’t been a strong economic expansion yet. Without that euphoric phase driven by liquidity, a massive crash also becomes less likely. Instead, price action may look similar to 2019 — a long period of consolidation followed by upside once liquidity returns. As the economy starts expanding again, risk assets should follow. In the near term, Bitcoin may stay choppy and consolidate, with a possible pullback, but the broader setup still depends on incoming liquidity.
$BTC $ETH $SOL

1. Not studying the technology behind coin
One of the biggest mistakes new crypto investors make is buying coins without understanding the technology behind them. Many people invest only because the price is moving or there is hype, without knowing what problem the project solves or whether it has real use. This is like buying shares of a company without knowing what it does. Taking time to learn basic blockchain concepts and a project’s purpose helps you avoid weak or useless coins and make smarter decisions.
2. Overtrading
Overtrading is a common mistake in crypto. Many beginners try to make quick money by buying and selling too often because the market moves fast. This usually leads to higher fees, emotional decisions, and missed long-term opportunities. Instead of chasing every small price move, stick to a clear strategy and focus on long-term growth. In crypto, patience often pays more than constant trading.
3. Panic selling
Panic selling is one of the biggest mistakes in crypto. Many people buy Bitcoin or other coins and sell the very next day when the market dips. Crypto is naturally volatile, and small crashes do not mean your investment is finished. Selling out of fear or FOMO often locks in losses. Having a clear plan and staying patient helps investors avoid emotional decisions and survive market swings.
4. Forgetting crypto wallet password
Forgetting your crypto wallet password is a costly mistake. Crypto security depends on you, not a bank. While wallets are highly secure, losing your private key or recovery phrase means losing access to your funds forever. There is no “forgot password” option in crypto. Always store your wallet details safely and back them up properly to protect your investment.
5. Investing only in one coin
Going all in on one coin or one idea is risky, especially for new investors. It may feel confident during a bull run, but a single bug, lawsuit, or bad news can destroy a large part of your portfolio. If one headline can wipe out most of your capital, your position size is too big. Diversifying across coins and themes isn’t weakness — it’s protection against the unknown.
6. Ignoring volatility
Ignoring crypto volatility is a common mistake. Volatility means how fast and how much prices move, and in crypto, those moves can be sharp. Prices can rise or fall quickly due to low liquidity, unclear regulation, and strong market emotions. While volatility may reduce over time, it is still part of the crypto market. Understanding this helps investors manage risk instead of being surprised by sudden price swings.
7. Feeling FOMO
Trading based on FOMO is one of the biggest reasons beginners lose money in crypto. FOMO makes people buy at high prices, sell too early, or invest in hyped projects with no real value. While it’s hard to remove FOMO completely, having a clear strategy and fixed rules for profit and loss helps control it. The crypto market creates new opportunities every day, so patience and discipline matter more than chasing every pump.
8. Falling into scams
Falling victim to scams is one of the biggest risks in crypto. Many scams promise guaranteed or unusually high returns, often disguised as investment programs or new projects. History has shown that schemes like fake yield programs and Ponzi models eventually collapse, leaving investors with losses. If something sounds too good to be true, it usually is. Always research properly, avoid guaranteed-profit promises, and protect your capital from hype-driven scams.
9. Investing money which you can't lose
Investing more than you can afford to lose is a dangerous mistake in crypto. The market has no guarantees, and prices can change fast. Never borrow money or take loans to invest, and don’t risk funds you need for daily life. Only invest what you’re comfortable losing. Protecting your financial stability is more important than chasing profits.
10. Trusting online wallets
Storing all your crypto in online wallets or exchanges increases risk. While exchanges are convenient for trading, they can be targets for hacks or withdrawal issues. A safer approach is to keep only the amount you need for trading online and store long-term holdings in more secure options like hardware wallets. In crypto, security is your responsibility.
$BTC $BNB $ETH
#BTC100kNext? #cryptomistakestoavoid

Pēdējā laikā kriptovalūtu tirgus šķiet vilšanos sagādājošs. 4 stundu diagrammā Bitcoin rāda lāča signālus, un balstoties uz iepriekšējiem datiem, ir liela iespēja, ka tas varētu nokrist, lai aizpildītu savu CME atstarpi ap 88.2k. Turklāt ļoti gaidītais kriptovalūtu tirgus struktūras likums, par kuru daudzi uzskatīja, ka tas atnesīs miljardus altcoin'iem, ir atkal aizkavējies. Šī aizkavēšanās jau ir ietekmējusi noskaņojumu, ar Coinbase un Robinhood akcijām samazinoties par aptuveni 6–7%. Atskatoties, ir arī vilšanos sagādājoši, ka, vietā reāla progresu, lielie virsraksti pirms gada bija meme monētu palaišanas, piemēram, Trump un Melania. Kopumā tirgus šķiet iestrēdzis hype, aizkavējumu un atkārtotas neapmierinātības ciklā.

Daudzi cilvēki ienāk kripto bez izpratnes par atšķirību starp spot tirdzniecību un nākotnes tirdzniecību, un šī kļūda bieži noved pie smagiem zaudējumiem. Abi ir rīki, bet tie ir domāti ļoti atšķirīgiem lietotāju veidiem.
Kas ir Spot Tirdzniecība?
Spot tirdzniecība nozīmē, ka jūs pērkat faktisko kriptovalūtu un to paturat. Ja jūs pērkat Bitcoin spotā, tas paliek jūsu makā, līdz jūs to pārdodat. Nav termiņa, nav likvidācijas un nav spiediena rīkoties ātri.
Piemēram, ja jūs nopirkāt Bitcoin par $20,000 spotā, jūs to varat turēt pat tad, ja cena nokrītas līdz $15,000 vai $10,000. Nekas jūs nepiespiež pārdot. Tas padara spot tirdzniecību drošāku un piemērotāku iesācējiem un ilgtermiņa investoriem.

Maikla Seilora stratēģija izklausās sarežģīti, bet tās pamatā tā patiesībā ir ļoti vienkārša.
Vispirms MSTR iegūst naudu, pārdodot fiksēta ienākuma produktus (piemēram, obligācijas). Šīs obligācijas maksā investoriem fiksētu atdevi apmēram 11% gadā. Piemēram, ja MSTR iegūst $1 miljardu, tā sola katru gadu maksāt apmēram $110 miljonus. Pār 10 gadiem kopējās procentu izmaksas aptuveni kļūst par $1.1 miljardu.
Tagad nāk svarīgā daļa.
Tā vietā, lai turētu šos naudas līdzekļus dīkstāvē, MSTR izmanto $1 miljardu, lai iegādātos Bitcoin.
Bitcoin nemaksā fiksētu procentu likmi, bet tā vērtība laika gaitā pieaug. Pat ja mēs pieņemam konservatīvu izaugsmes tempu 15% gadā, tas $1 miljards Bitcoin var ievērojami pieaugt, pateicoties procentu kapitalizācijai. Pēc 10 gadiem šis Bitcoin būtu vērts apmēram $4 miljardus.

Ne katra kriptovalūta gūs labumu no tā, kas notiks nākotnē. 2025. gada 6. oktobrī kriptovalūtu tirgus pazaudēja gandrīz 1 triljonu dolāru, ar apmēram 50 miljardiem dolāru likvidētiem. Saskaņā ar Raoula Pala teikto, biržām bija jāiejaucas un jāpērk aktīvi, kurus tās parasti nepirktu, un tagad šie nosacījumi tiek lēnām pārdoti. Tas ir viens no iemesliem, kāpēc tirgus piedzīvo spēcīgu volatilitāti. Ilgtermiņa dati, ko dalījās Benjamins Cowens, arī izceļ svarīgas ikgadējās tendences, kuras jāņem vērā.
No plašāka skata, ne visas monētas tiek gaidītas, ka virzīsies pozitīvā virzienā. Diemžēl globālās ģeopolitiskās spriedzes pieaug, kas pievieno vēl lielāku nenoteiktību tirgos. Mēs redzam palielinātu iesaisti un spiedienu no ASV dažādās reģionos, tostarp Irānā, Grenlandē un Kubā. Šie notikumi nav optimistiski un parasti rada baiļu un nestabilitātes sajūtu. Nenoteiktos laikos kā šie, tirgi parasti veic vienu no divām lietām: tie vai nu pārvietojas sāniski un konsolidējas, vai arī tie virzās uz leju. Tāpēc ir svarīgi identificēt galvenos līmeņus un saprast, kur Bitcoin potenciāli varētu doties tālāk.

Ir dažas svarīgas ziņas cilvēkiem, kuri interesējas par kriptovalūtām. Bijušais prezidents Tramps nesen dalījās ar dažiem paziņojumiem, kas varētu spēcīgi ietekmēt Bitcoin 2026. gadā.
Jauni bezdarba dati ir publicēti, un tie ir labāki nekā gaidīts, tas nozīmē, ka mazāk cilvēku ir bez darba. Tajā pašā laikā inflācijas dati rāda, ka cenas palielinās lēni un, visticamāk, ir zem 2%. Kad bezdarbs samazinās un inflācija paliek zema, tas norāda, ka ekonomika ir spēcīga un stabila. Tas sniedz centrālajai bankai pārliecību, ka ekonomika ir veselīga. Šo apstākļu dēļ tirgi, piemēram, Bitcoin, var gūt labumu, jo investori gaida vairāk atbalstošu ekonomikas politiku nākotnē.